As a journalist, who has covered the fleet industry for over a decade, I spend a lot of time talking with smart people about the intersection of technology and transportation—specifically, the rise of vehicle automation and how that might impact our world in fleet safety. And that’s what we focus on in this talk, as I share with you what I’ve learned from my conversations and research.

1. Autonomous Vehicles are Coming Sooner
Than You Think: Are You Ready for the
Safety Challenges They Will Bring?
Sean M. Lyden—Journalist & Editor

2. Background: Sean Lyden
• Editor, Utility Fleet Professional magazine
• Journalist covering fleet for more than a
decade
• Host of the “Fleet Track” for the iP Utility
Safety Conference
• Speaker on topics pertaining to The Future of
Transportation

3. Our Story Begins in 2009 …

4. Our Story Begins in 2009...
• Google launches self-driving
car program
• One of Google’s “Moonshots”
• Spurred competition from
automakers and tech sector
Image: Google

5. Agenda
1.Why Care? 3 Reasons
2.Key Terms to Know
3.Top 6 Trends
4.The 3 Biggest Hurdles
5.What’s the Impact on
Fleet?
6.The Bottom Line
7.Discussion: Q&A

6. Why Care?

7. Reason #1: Safety
Annual Road Crash
Fatalities
• Global—1.25 million
• U.S.—37,461 (2016)
Sources: World Health Organization; NHTSA
Image: CBS San Francisco

8. Reason #1: Safety
1.25 million road fatalities…
“That’s equivalent to a 737
[airliner] falling from the sky
every hour of every day all year
long.”
~ John Krafcik, CEO, Waymo
Image: Boeing

9. Reason #1: Safety
The Problem? Us
94% of vehicular crashes
tied to human error—
NHTSA
Image: ABC

10. Reason #1: Safety
If humans are the problem…
And removing the human driver is the solution…
Is societal adoption of autonomous vehicles a moral imperative?
THAT’s a powerful argument for spurring regulatory action

11. Reason #2: Productivity
Ave. commute (to-and-
from work) for U.S.
workers = 50.2 minutes
U.S. Census Bureau
Ford Patents Retractable Table for AVs
—Automotive News, 9/18/17

12. Reason #2: Productivity
Imagine this scenario …
• On-demand service trucks on shared network
• Removable tool and equipment “pods”
• Autonomous parts delivery
• Paperwork completed during commute—no sitting time

13. Reason #2: Productivity
“The scenario you suggest is likely to occur. The introduction
of autonomous vehicles means we will see a completely
different vehicle ownership model with users tending to rent
out the vehicles rather than owning one themselves.”
— Sam Barker, Juniper Research

14. Reason #2: Productivity
“That’s absolutely a plausible scenario, and I think that’s
probably the direction that we’re going to see this stuff go—
instead of a company owning a fixed fleet of vehicles, they’re
able to ‘call up’ a self-driving taxi cab or truck or van as
needed. I can see that beginning to happen by mid 2020s.”
— Sam Abuelsamid, Navigant Research

15. Reason #3: It’s Not a Matter of If But When…
20 million fully autonomous vehicles will be on the road
globally by 2025, with consumer adoption set to take off in
2021.
—Juniper Research

16. Reason #3: It’s Not a Matter of If But When…
Ed Peper, VP of GM Fleet: Self-driving vehicles in
rideshare applications by 2019

17. Reason #3: It’s Not a Matter of If But When…
Waymo—1 million self-driving rides per day by 2020

18. Key Terms

19. The Anatomy of Autonomy
• The Eyes: 5 Sensor Technologies
• The Brain: Machine Learning
• The Nervous System: ADAS

20. The Eyes: 5 Sensor Technologies

21. Sensor Technology #1: Lidar
Light Detection And Ranging
Image: Popular Science

22. Sensor Technology #2: Cameras
Image: Mobileye
“Eyes” to Read Signs, Spot Obstacles

23. Sensor Technology #3: Radar
Radio Waves to Measure Speed and Distance
Image: Autobytel

24. Sensor Technology #4: Sonar
Ultrasonic Range Finding
Image: Tesla

25. Sensor Technology #5: V2X
Vehicle-to-(Vehicle/ Pedestrian/ Infrastructure/ Everything)
Image: Denso Global

26. The Brain: Machine Learning

27. Machine Learning
• Type of artificial
intelligence
• System “learns” and
adapts on its own
• “Learning” can also
occur across the fleet
network
Image: Intel

28. The Nervous System: ADAS

29. ADAS=Advanced Driver Assistance Systems
Faster Than Human Reflexes…
• Adaptive Cruise Control
• Lane Departure Warning
• Collision Avoidance Systems
• Blind Spot Detection
• Park Assist
Image: Freightliner

30. What Exactly Does “Autonomous” Mean?

31. The 6 Levels of Autonomy
Image: NHTSA/ SAE

32. Top 6 Trends

33. Trend #1: OEMs Expanding ADAS Options
2018 Freightliner Cascadia 2018 Ford F-150

34. Trend #1: OEMs Expanding ADAS Options
AV Impact:
• Building-block
technologies
• Economies of scale
• Lower system costs
• Better performance
Image: Freightliner

35. Trend #2: Increased Vehicle Connectivity
AV Impact:
• Over-the-air
updates
• V2X
• Crowd-sourced
mapping
• Platooning
• Remote controlImage: Department of Transportation

36. Trend #3: On-Demand Transportation
AV Impact:
• Shift in attitudes (and
behavior): ownership vs. on-
demand
• New OEM business models—
Sales vs. Services
• Early use cases for the
networked autonomous fleet
Image: Uber

37. Trend #4: Cost Breakthroughs
AV Impact:
• Greater system
redundancy
• Higher safety
performance
• Lower cost, wider
market appeal
Waymo: Proprietary design reduced Lidar cost from $75,000 a few years
ago to around $7,500 today

38. Trend #5: Race to Autonomy
AV Impact:
• Money
• Momentum
• Miles

39. Trend #6: Political Momentum
AV Impact:
• Cooperation—and
momentum
• Fed framework vs. state
patchwork
• Guidelines for development
Images: Wired, NHTSA

40. The 3 Biggest Hurdles

41. Hurdle #1: Fear
And … 46% (vs. 54% in 2017) would feel less safe sharing the road
with fully autonomous vehicles

42. Hurdle #1: Fear
“The Hourglass of Death”

43. Hurdle #2: Machine Ethics
M.I.T. Study
• 76% say it’s “more
moral” for AV to
sacrifice one
passenger to save 10
pedestrians
• …unless you’re the
passenger
Image: http://moralmachine.mit.edu/

44. Hurdle #3: Politics
• House Bill SELF-DRIVE Act excludes commercial trucks above
10,000 lbs. GVWR
• Senate considering adding commercial trucks—w/ Navistar
and ATA advocating for inclusion
• Teamsters lobbying against commercial truck inclusion—
impact on jobs
• Recent high-profile crashes—greater scrutiny
• Senate Bill (AV Start Act) stalled
• Long-term challenges: Agreement on ethical frameworks,
licensed driver requirement vs. full autonomy, etc.

45. What’s the Impact on
Fleet Safety?

46. Potential Fleet Impact…
• Driver training—b/w levels of automation
• Vehicle specification & driver policies
• Risk management
• Fleet vehicle upfits and equipment
• Vehicle lifecycles and ownership vs. on-demand model
• Maintenance operations

47. The Bottom Line
• So much has happened in only 9 years
• Level 3 to 4 autonomous vehicles on market by 2021
• Latest trends point to a self-driving future
• Yet, big hurdles, many questions remain
• But one thing’s for sure: There will be impacts on fleet
safety
So…How will you adapt?

48. Discussion: Q & A
Sean M. Lyden
Editor, Utility Fleet Professional
sean@utilityfleetprofessional.com