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Gino Carlucci AICP, Sherborn Town Planner and Planning Consultant
Eric Halvorsen AICP, Transportation Planner, Metropolita...
Who’s Working on Autonomous
Vehicles?
 Google

 Nissan
 Ford
 BMW
 Toyota
 Audi

 Mercedes-Benz
Current Technology
 Adaptive Cruise Control
 Vehicles change speeds automatically using sensors

 Parallel Parking
 Ju...
Testing So Far

 Google self-driving cars have completed more than
300,000 miles of testing without a single accident und...
Projections

“You can count on one hand the number of years it will take
before ordinary people can experience this”

- Go...
Projections

“I could sleep in my driverless car, or have an exercise bike in
the back of the car to work out on the way t...
Projections

Autonomous vehicles “will account for up to 75 percent of
cars on the road by the year 2040”

- Institute of ...
Projections

“What automation is going to allow is repurposing, both of
spaces in cities, and of the car itself.”

- Ryan ...
Legal Issues
 Sagan reference

 CA, FL NV
 Liability etc.
California

 Governor Jerry Brown signed a bill into law that has
California adopting rules and regulations for operating...
Nevada

 Legislature enacted regulations to allow for testing and
operating autonomous vehicles in February 2012.
 Two p...
Current Car Culture
 Consider
 Dodger Stadium
 Fenway Park
Travel Trends/Car Usage

Source: Federal Highway Administration, 2011, 2009
National Household Travel Survey
Inefficiency of Dominant Auto
Use
 Cars spend up to 90-95% of the time parked

 NHTSA estimates 30% of driving in busine...
Land Use Impacts
 Accurate measures of urban land devoted to cars is
difficult to obtain, but estimates have ranged from ...
A typical parking requirement for office space of 4 per 1000 square
feet means that a three story office building with a f...
Changes with Autonomous
Vehicles
 Car ownership is no longer necessary as car sharing
becomes the dominant mode

 The ne...
Car Sharing
 Removing need for driver also removes need to keep cars
parked 90% of the time.

 Zipcar, Flightcar, Uber, ...
Zipcar
 As of July 2013, the company had more than than 810,000
members and offers nearly 10,000 vehicles throughout the
...
Uber – Flightcar-Kidcar
 Uber: “By seamlessly connecting riders to drivers through our
apps, we make cities more accessib...
Reduced Parking
Elimination of Car Storage
Lessons For Planners
 Be aware of trend

 Design sites with future potential in mind (building
location and parking lot ...
Stairway to Heaven
Yes, there are two paths you can go
by, but in the long run there's still time
to change the road you'r...
Gino Carlucci AICP, Sherborn Town Planner and Planning Consultant
Eric Halvorsen AICP, Transportation Planner, Metropolita...
Changing Demographics
Millennials are driving
changes in auto
ownership, licensing, and
vehicle miles traveled.
 People a...
Changing Demographics

Chart Source – The Atlantic, Jordan Weissman, July 2012.
Changing Demographics
Boston-area cities, large and small, are seeing
increases in populations 55 and over
Quincy, MA

Mel...
Changing Demographics
Technology is assisting with shrinking automobile
ownership
Changing Demographics
While trends do show a movement back
to urban areas, there are still large
numbers of residents livi...
Driverless Car Technology
13-Town Transportation Coordination Project
Driverless Car Technology
• Challenges with coordination of services
• AV dispatch technology could schedule sets of share...
Driverless Car Technology
Urban Area Impact

What about the
Driverless Car Technology
Urban Area Impact
• Won’t MBTA core ridership decrease?
• Not likely, still cheaper and can tran...
Driverless Car Technology
• Huge potential upside for suburban and rural travel
options
• Could serve as the first/last mi...
Gino Carlucci AICP, Sherborn Town Planner and Planning Consultant
Eric Halvorsen AICP, Transportation Planner, Metropolita...
Control System
 COMPLEXITY OF INPUT AND RESPONSE

 Software – Computers – Sensors – Controls
 Vehicle Operating Charact...
Control System
 Phase 1 – Autonomous Control with Driver Riding
Shotgun

 Phase 2 – Intelligent Autonomous Vehicles
 Tr...
Control System
 Mercedes-Benz's autonomous research vehicle WSJ
 At the frontier of making cars drive themselves… is the...
Control System
 Platform – Individual Systems OR Centralized
Control
 Urban Arterials/Highways and Interstate
Highways R...
Vehicle Design
 Uniform Operating Characteristics

 Platform – Passenger and Seating Configurations
 Personalized Publi...
Roadway & Highway Design
 New Classifications and Design Requirements For
Highways And Roadways
 Ultra Limited Access Hi...
Roadway & Highway Design
 Totally New Types of Transportation Facilities
 Ultra High Speed Vehicle Tubes
 Ultra Low Spe...
Urban Design
 Urban Areas Have Been Shaped by Innovations in
Transportation Technology
 Eighteenth Century Walking Scale...
URBAN DESIGN
 Vehicular Facilities Are The Antithesis Of Vibrant
Urban Areas.
 Capacity Increase for Highways and Street...
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
 Increased VMT

 Increased Speed
 Increased Energy Use
 Exurban Sprawl
 Emissions (Increase in ...
Stakeholders
 Groups with Restricted Mobility
 Physical Restrictions on Driving – Elderly – Children

 Everybody
 Decr...
SNEAPA 2013 Thursday b2 10-30_autonomous vehicle ppt10-11-13
SNEAPA 2013 Thursday b2 10-30_autonomous vehicle ppt10-11-13
SNEAPA 2013 Thursday b2 10-30_autonomous vehicle ppt10-11-13
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SNEAPA 2013 Thursday b2 10-30_autonomous vehicle ppt10-11-13

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Autonomous Vehicles: Riding "Driver's Side" is the New "Shotgun"

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SNEAPA 2013 Thursday b2 10-30_autonomous vehicle ppt10-11-13

  1. 1. Gino Carlucci AICP, Sherborn Town Planner and Planning Consultant Eric Halvorsen AICP, Transportation Planner, Metropolitan Area Planning Council Tom Houston AICP, P.E., President, PSC Southern New England APA Conference 10/17/2013
  2. 2. Who’s Working on Autonomous Vehicles?  Google  Nissan  Ford  BMW  Toyota  Audi  Mercedes-Benz
  3. 3. Current Technology  Adaptive Cruise Control  Vehicles change speeds automatically using sensors  Parallel Parking  Just sit behind the wheel and let the car position itself  Lane Detection  Cars that can sense drifting on the road and correct for it  Early Braking Systems  Vehicles sense obstacles to the front and rear and “step on” the brakes faster than a human can respond
  4. 4. Testing So Far  Google self-driving cars have completed more than 300,000 miles of testing without a single accident under computer control  This is almost twice as good as the average driver according to Federal Highway Administration statistics
  5. 5. Projections “You can count on one hand the number of years it will take before ordinary people can experience this” - Google co-founder Sergey Brin
  6. 6. Projections “I could sleep in my driverless car, or have an exercise bike in the back of the car to work out on the way to work” - Bryant Walker Smith Center for Automotive Research at Stanford
  7. 7. Projections Autonomous vehicles “will account for up to 75 percent of cars on the road by the year 2040” - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
  8. 8. Projections “What automation is going to allow is repurposing, both of spaces in cities, and of the car itself.” - Ryan Calo, University of Washington School of Law
  9. 9. Legal Issues  Sagan reference  CA, FL NV  Liability etc.
  10. 10. California  Governor Jerry Brown signed a bill into law that has California adopting rules and regulations for operating driverless cars in April 2013.  The “operator” can now be “the person who causes the autonomous technology to engage” even if not sitting in the driver’s seat.
  11. 11. Nevada  Legislature enacted regulations to allow for testing and operating autonomous vehicles in February 2012.  Two people must be present: behind the wheel and in the passenger seat.
  12. 12. Current Car Culture  Consider  Dodger Stadium  Fenway Park
  13. 13. Travel Trends/Car Usage Source: Federal Highway Administration, 2011, 2009 National Household Travel Survey
  14. 14. Inefficiency of Dominant Auto Use  Cars spend up to 90-95% of the time parked  NHTSA estimates 30% of driving in business districts is spent looking for a place to park  Victor Gruen estimates that each car needs 3 or 4 parking spaces elsewhere in addition to one at home (Donald Schoup, 2005 The High Cost of Free Parking)
  15. 15. Land Use Impacts  Accurate measures of urban land devoted to cars is difficult to obtain, but estimates have ranged from 30% to 50% in most cities and up to two-thirds in some (Schoup, 2005)  Harvard researchers estimate that up to a third of land in some cities is for parking alone.
  16. 16. A typical parking requirement for office space of 4 per 1000 square feet means that a three story office building with a footprint of 1000 square feet needs more than three times its footprint for parking (12 x 300 ft2 = 3600 ft2).
  17. 17. Changes with Autonomous Vehicles  Car ownership is no longer necessary as car sharing becomes the dominant mode  The need for parking and storing cars is reduced dramatically  Space formerly used for parking gets repurposed
  18. 18. Car Sharing  Removing need for driver also removes need to keep cars parked 90% of the time.  Zipcar, Flightcar, Uber, Hubway, etc. represent symbiotic trends that meld perfectly with autonomous vehicles  One model is cell phone use – one could subscribe for unlimited use, fixed amount of time, or pay per ride.
  19. 19. Zipcar  As of July 2013, the company had more than than 810,000 members and offers nearly 10,000 vehicles throughout the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Spain and Austria, making Zipcar the world's leading car sharing network.  Hertz on Demand, Enterprise's WeCar, UHaul's Uhaul Car Share, and Daimler's Car2Go are copycat services.
  20. 20. Uber – Flightcar-Kidcar  Uber: “By seamlessly connecting riders to drivers through our apps, we make cities more accessible, opening up more possibilities for riders and more business for drivers.”  Flightcar: “FlightCar lets people parking at the airport rent their vehicles out to other travelers. Every rental is insured up to $1 million, and every renter is pre-screened. Depending on the type and model year of the vehicle, you can also make up to $20/day in cash! “  Kidcar: “Kid Car NY is the ONLY car service in New York that provides safe transport for children by providing specially trained drivers in kid-friendly, luxury minivans with properlyinstalled car seats appropriate for the child's age and weight.”
  21. 21. Reduced Parking
  22. 22. Elimination of Car Storage
  23. 23. Lessons For Planners  Be aware of trend  Design sites with future potential in mind (building location and parking lot design)  Identify redevelopment opportunities in master planning  Address potential repurposing of sites and garage space
  24. 24. Stairway to Heaven Yes, there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run there's still time to change the road you're on.
  25. 25. Gino Carlucci AICP, Sherborn Town Planner and Planning Consultant Eric Halvorsen AICP, Transportation Planner, Metropolitan Area Planning Council Tom Houston AICP, P.E., President, PSC Southern New England APA Conference 10/17/2013
  26. 26. Changing Demographics Millennials are driving changes in auto ownership, licensing, and vehicle miles traveled.  People aged 16 – 34 drove 23% fewer miles in 2009 than in 20011  In 2011, 86 percent of driving-age Americans held driver’s licenses, the lowest percentage in 30 years1 1 US PIRG, A New Direction, Spring 2013
  27. 27. Changing Demographics Chart Source – The Atlantic, Jordan Weissman, July 2012.
  28. 28. Changing Demographics Boston-area cities, large and small, are seeing increases in populations 55 and over Quincy, MA Melrose, MA
  29. 29. Changing Demographics Technology is assisting with shrinking automobile ownership
  30. 30. Changing Demographics While trends do show a movement back to urban areas, there are still large numbers of residents living in suburban and rural areas. The percentage of Americans living in suburbs increased from 23 percent in 1950 to 50 percent in 20002 2 US PIRG, A New Direction, Spring 2013
  31. 31. Driverless Car Technology 13-Town Transportation Coordination Project
  32. 32. Driverless Car Technology • Challenges with coordination of services • AV dispatch technology could schedule sets of shared rides within designated “pick-up zones” • Challenges with consistent driver training • No longer a need for drivers • Limitations of who can use existing suburban services • AV fleets could be designed and designated for specific uses or sets of populations Residents can age in place as suburbs build out
  33. 33. Driverless Car Technology Urban Area Impact What about the
  34. 34. Driverless Car Technology Urban Area Impact • Won’t MBTA core ridership decrease? • Not likely, still cheaper and can transport more people • AV technology can be used to connect areas that don’t have as frequent service • Potential feeder service to major MBTA lines • Reduce congestion in the core • AV fleets could be used as first/last mile connections, increasing attractiveness of Commuter Rail
  35. 35. Driverless Car Technology • Huge potential upside for suburban and rural travel options • Could serve as the first/last mile connection in all locations • Increase efficiency of existing suburban transit models • Increase transit use and car sharing, thereby reducing overall congestion
  36. 36. Gino Carlucci AICP, Sherborn Town Planner and Planning Consultant Eric Halvorsen AICP, Transportation Planner, Metropolitan Area Planning Council Tom Houston AICP, P.E., President, PSC Southern New England APA Conference 10/17/2013
  37. 37. Control System  COMPLEXITY OF INPUT AND RESPONSE  Software – Computers – Sensors – Controls  Vehicle Operating Characteristics  Mechanical Responses And Failures  Road Conditions & Weather  Intrusions – Pedestrians, Children, Animals  Road Hazards  Traffic Officer Preemption
  38. 38. Control System  Phase 1 – Autonomous Control with Driver Riding Shotgun  Phase 2 – Intelligent Autonomous Vehicles  Truly Driverless Vehicles – Increased Benefits – Increased Complexity     Are Truly Driverless Cars Attainable. Elevators Used to Have Operators Computer & Software Crashes – Control Failures Criminal Activity – Hackers – Terrorism
  39. 39. Control System  Mercedes-Benz's autonomous research vehicle WSJ  At the frontier of making cars drive themselves… is the writing of pattern-matching algorithms so the machine brain understands what the machine vision sees. As the speed of traffic increases, these algorithms must become increasingly predictive, anticipating, as humans do, the probable intention of drivers in other vehicles.  To evolve, this research needs the car to experience randomness so that it will react appropriately in even the unlikeliest situations. "We have a washing-machine test…[where]…Something suddenly falls off a truck ahead of the car. Can the system react faster and better than a human?
  40. 40. Control System  Platform – Individual Systems OR Centralized Control  Urban Arterials/Highways and Interstate Highways Restricted to Truly Driverless Vehicles and/or Operate under Centralized Control       Increased Speed – Increased Capacity Public Policy – Establish Design Criteria Manually Controlled Vehicles Prohibited Drivers Could Not Preempt Autonomous Control Uniform Vehicle Operating Characteristics The Clunker – The Truck – Special Vehicles
  41. 41. Vehicle Design  Uniform Operating Characteristics  Platform – Passenger and Seating Configurations  Personalized Public Transportation Vehicles  Extreme high early maintenance schedule
  42. 42. Roadway & Highway Design  New Classifications and Design Requirements For Highways And Roadways  Ultra Limited Access Highways And Roadways  Replace Conventional Traffic Controls  Headway – LOS – Capacity
  43. 43. Roadway & Highway Design  Totally New Types of Transportation Facilities  Ultra High Speed Vehicle Tubes  Ultra Low Speed Integrated Pedestrian & Vehicular Facilities for Local Urban Access  Subdivision Streets with 12 Foot Wide Traveled Ways
  44. 44. Urban Design  Urban Areas Have Been Shaped by Innovations in Transportation Technology  Eighteenth Century Walking Scale Cities  Streetcar Suburbs  Post WW II Urban Freeways  Intelligent Autonomous Vehicles will Reshape the Urban Areas of the 21st Century
  45. 45. URBAN DESIGN  Vehicular Facilities Are The Antithesis Of Vibrant Urban Areas.  Capacity Increase for Highways and Streets  Limited Need For Downtown Parking  Greater Urban Density.  Urban Centers Ringed with Remote Parking Facilities
  46. 46. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS  Increased VMT  Increased Speed  Increased Energy Use  Exurban Sprawl  Emissions (Increase in VMT vs. Decrease in Congestion)
  47. 47. Stakeholders  Groups with Restricted Mobility  Physical Restrictions on Driving – Elderly – Children  Everybody  Decreased Travel Time  Use travel time for business or personal activities  At your next dinner party, ask for a show of hands of the people who'd want that [Autonomous vehicle] WSJ

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