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the Startup Thesis
2
Evidence-based
Entrepreneurship
3
Evidence-based
Entrepreneurship
VP CS
C
P
KA
KR
C$ R$
4
Evidence-based
Entrepreneurship
Core Idea or
Technology
Customer
Discovery
Customer
Validation
? ✓
5
Evidence-based
Entrepreneurship
Core Idea or
Technology
Customer
Discovery
Customer
Validation
? ✓
Startup
6
Evidence-based
Entrepreneurship
Customer
Discovery
Customer
Validation
? ✓
Startup
Customer
Creation
Company
the scientific method
applies to business
?
Core Idea or
Technology
Customer
Discovery
Customer
Validation
? ✓?
Core Idea or
Technology
Customer
Discovery
Customer
Validation
? ✓
Startup Thesis
a Startup Thesis describes
Who is your customer?
What is your product?
Why will they buy?
examples
Idea: 

A video system to capture and
evaluate the behavior of children
with autism
Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it?
Startup Thesis
Idea: 

A video system to capture and
evaluate the behavior of children
with autism
Thesis: 

Physical therapists will make
video recordings of autistic
children in classrooms to improve
therapy outcomes.
Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it?
Startup Thesis
Physical therapists will make
video recordings of autistic
children in classrooms to improve
therapy outcomes.
Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it?
Startup Thesis
Physical therapists will make
video recordings of autistic
children in classrooms to improve
therapy outcomes.
Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it?
Startup Thesis
Physical therapists will make
video recordings of autistic
children in classrooms to improve
therapy outcomes.
Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it?
Startup Thesis
Idea: 

We developed a novel electrolyte
that lowers the cost, size and
toxicity of ultra capacitors for
hybrid vehicles.
Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it?
Startup Thesis
Idea: 

We developed a novel electrolyte
that lowers the cost, size and
toxicity of ultra capacitors for
hybrid vehicles.
Thesis: 

Hybrid vehicle manufacturers will
buy our ultra capacitors because
they are safer and 15% lower in
cost than current energy storage
solutions.
Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it?
Startup Thesis
Hybrid vehicle manufacturers will
buy our ultra capacitors because
they are safer and 15% lower in
cost than current energy storage
solutions.
Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it?
Startup Thesis
Hybrid vehicle manufacturers will
buy our ultra capacitors because
they are safer and 15% lower in
cost than current energy storage
solutions.
Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it?
Startup Thesis
Hybrid vehicle manufacturers will
buy our ultra capacitors because
they are safer and 15% lower in
cost than current energy storage
solutions.
Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it?
Startup Thesis
Idea: 

Prepare thrombin from the
patient’s own blood to create
platelet gels used to accelerate
wound healing, a safer alternative
to bovine thrombin.
Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it?
Startup Thesis
Idea: 

Prepare thrombin from the
patient’s own blood to create
platelet gels used to accelerate
wound healing, a safer alternative
to bovine thrombin.
thesis: 

Surgeons will select our wound
treatment device to shorten
wound healing time.
Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it?
Startup Thesis
Surgeons will select our wound
treatment device to shorten
wound healing time.
Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it?
Startup Thesis
Surgeons will select our wound
treatment device to shorten
wound healing time.
Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it?
Startup Thesis
Surgeons will select our wound
treatment device to shorten
wound healing time.
Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it?
Startup Thesis
Startup Thesis Format
T = CS will buy Product because VP
CS: customer segment (who is your customer)

VP: value proposition (why they will buy)
Two income married
couples will buy an
automated expense
tracking app because it
improves their marriage
(CS) Two income married couples
will buy
(Product) an automated 

expense tracking app
because
(VP) it improves their marriage
CS: customer segment (who is your customer)

VP: value proposition (why they will buy)
a gentle reminder
What is a
hypothesis?
Hypotheses:

what must be true
such that the thesis is true
Rules of Hypotheses:
– Statement of fact

– Testable

– Non obvious

– Reversible

– Not absurd (either way)
Proof by abduction:

if H1, H2, H3 … Hn then T
The Thesis is the best possible
explanation of the hypotheses
please remember
what Richard Feynman
said…
If it disagrees with
experiment, it’s
WRONG. … It doesn’t
make any difference
how beautiful your
guess is, it doesn’t
matter how smart you
are who made the
guess,… If it disagrees
with experiment, it’s
wrong.
walkthrough
Two income married
couples will buy an
automated expense
tracking app because it
improves their marriage
Hypotheses
TIMC: two income married couples

AETA: automated expense tracking app
Two income married couples will buy
an automated expense tracking app
because it improves their marriage
H1: TIMC have smart phones
H2: TIMC regularly buy mobile apps
H3: TIMC share a bank account
H4: Money is one of the main sources of 

frustration for TIMC
H5: Reducing one of the main sources of
frustrations will improve a marriage
H6: Understanding how money is spent will
eliminate frustration over money
H7: AETA will show clearly how money is spent
if TIMC have smart phones
and TIMC regularly buy mobile apps
and TIMC share a bank account
and money is one of the main sources of 

frustration for TIMC
and reducing one of the main sources of
frustrations will improve a marriage
and understanding how money is spent will
eliminate frustration over money
and AETA will show clearly how money is spent
then two income married couples will buy
an automated expense tracking app
because it improves their marriage
Proof
another gentle reminder
What is the
scientific method?
Hypothesis 

What must be true such that the thesis is true
Hypothesis 

What must be true such that the thesis is true
Prediction

What we expect to happen
Hypothesis 

What must be true such that the thesis is true
Prediction

What we expect to happen
Experiment

Test the prediction
Hypothesis 

What must be true such that the thesis is true
Prediction

What we expect to happen
Experiment

Test the prediction
Trigger:
What is a passing mark for the experiment?
Hypothesis 

What must be true such that the thesis is true
Prediction

What we expect to happen
Experiment

Test the prediction
Trigger:
What is a passing mark for the experiment?
Question
Questions that can be asked to run the experiment
H: TIMC regularly buy mobile apps
H: TIMC regularly buy mobile apps
P: Half of all married people ages 25-50
will report they buy 5 apps or more per year
H: TIMC regularly buy mobile apps
P: Half of all married people ages 25-50
will report they buy 5 apps or more per year
E: Interview 12 married people ages 25-50
H: TIMC regularly buy mobile apps
P: Half of all married people ages 25-50
will report they buy 5 apps or more per year
E: Interview 12 married people ages 25-50
Trigger: 6 or more
H: TIMC regularly buy mobile apps
P: Half of all married people ages 25-50
will report they buy 5 apps or more per year
E: Interview 12 married people ages 25-50
Trigger: 6 or more
Q: tell me about what apps you use
Q: how do you decide to add new apps
Q: are some of the paid apps?
Q: how often would you buy paid apps?
H: Money is one of the main sources of 

frustration for TIMC
P:
E:
Trigger:
Q:
Q:
Q:
Try it yourself! 

write a
prediction,
experiment,
trigger
and questions
H: Money is one of the main sources of 

frustration for TIMC
P: Couples will say they argue over money
E: Interview 12 married people ages 25-50
Trigger: 8 or more
Q:
Q:
Q:
H: Money is one of the main sources of 

frustration for TIMC
P: Couples who argue over money
will say they do it once or more per month
E: Interview 8 married people ages 25-50 

who argue over money
Trigger: 6 or more say they argue monthly
Q:
Q:
Q:
Startup Thesis Ultimate Format
CS will buy Product because VP
Startup Thesis Evolution
CS will buy <initial Product> because VP
CS will buy SOMETHING because VP
SOMEBODY will buy SOMETHING because VP
CS will buy ANYTHING(!) because VP
•••
CS will buy <final Product> because VP
Core Idea or
Technology
Customer
Discovery
Customer
Validation
? ✓
Startup Thesis
Does this really work?
the VentureLab Way
Customer
Discovery
Customer
Validation
? ✓
Customer
Creation
Company
Building
Startup Company
“Sorting Hat”
Thesis
Ideation
? T
Idea
product/market fit ✓
startup thesis ✓
AUTM Startup Thesis

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AUTM Startup Thesis

  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 10. ?
  • 13. a Startup Thesis describes Who is your customer? What is your product? Why will they buy?
  • 15. Idea: A video system to capture and evaluate the behavior of children with autism Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it? Startup Thesis
  • 16. Idea: A video system to capture and evaluate the behavior of children with autism Thesis: Physical therapists will make video recordings of autistic children in classrooms to improve therapy outcomes. Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it? Startup Thesis
  • 17. Physical therapists will make video recordings of autistic children in classrooms to improve therapy outcomes. Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it? Startup Thesis
  • 18. Physical therapists will make video recordings of autistic children in classrooms to improve therapy outcomes. Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it? Startup Thesis
  • 19. Physical therapists will make video recordings of autistic children in classrooms to improve therapy outcomes. Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it? Startup Thesis
  • 20. Idea: We developed a novel electrolyte that lowers the cost, size and toxicity of ultra capacitors for hybrid vehicles. Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it? Startup Thesis
  • 21. Idea: We developed a novel electrolyte that lowers the cost, size and toxicity of ultra capacitors for hybrid vehicles. Thesis: Hybrid vehicle manufacturers will buy our ultra capacitors because they are safer and 15% lower in cost than current energy storage solutions. Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it? Startup Thesis
  • 22. Hybrid vehicle manufacturers will buy our ultra capacitors because they are safer and 15% lower in cost than current energy storage solutions. Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it? Startup Thesis
  • 23. Hybrid vehicle manufacturers will buy our ultra capacitors because they are safer and 15% lower in cost than current energy storage solutions. Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it? Startup Thesis
  • 24. Hybrid vehicle manufacturers will buy our ultra capacitors because they are safer and 15% lower in cost than current energy storage solutions. Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it? Startup Thesis
  • 25. Idea: Prepare thrombin from the patient’s own blood to create platelet gels used to accelerate wound healing, a safer alternative to bovine thrombin. Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it? Startup Thesis
  • 26. Idea: Prepare thrombin from the patient’s own blood to create platelet gels used to accelerate wound healing, a safer alternative to bovine thrombin. thesis: Surgeons will select our wound treatment device to shorten wound healing time. Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it? Startup Thesis
  • 27. Surgeons will select our wound treatment device to shorten wound healing time. Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it? Startup Thesis
  • 28. Surgeons will select our wound treatment device to shorten wound healing time. Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it? Startup Thesis
  • 29. Surgeons will select our wound treatment device to shorten wound healing time. Who is your customer, what is your product, why will they buy it? Startup Thesis
  • 30. Startup Thesis Format T = CS will buy Product because VP CS: customer segment (who is your customer) VP: value proposition (why they will buy)
  • 31. Two income married couples will buy an automated expense tracking app because it improves their marriage
  • 32. (CS) Two income married couples will buy (Product) an automated 
 expense tracking app because (VP) it improves their marriage CS: customer segment (who is your customer) VP: value proposition (why they will buy)
  • 33. a gentle reminder What is a hypothesis?
  • 34. Hypotheses: what must be true such that the thesis is true
  • 35. Rules of Hypotheses: – Statement of fact – Testable – Non obvious – Reversible – Not absurd (either way)
  • 36. Proof by abduction: if H1, H2, H3 … Hn then T The Thesis is the best possible explanation of the hypotheses
  • 37. please remember what Richard Feynman said…
  • 38. If it disagrees with experiment, it’s WRONG. … It doesn’t make any difference how beautiful your guess is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are who made the guess,… If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong.
  • 40. Two income married couples will buy an automated expense tracking app because it improves their marriage
  • 41. Hypotheses TIMC: two income married couples AETA: automated expense tracking app Two income married couples will buy an automated expense tracking app because it improves their marriage H1: TIMC have smart phones H2: TIMC regularly buy mobile apps H3: TIMC share a bank account H4: Money is one of the main sources of 
 frustration for TIMC H5: Reducing one of the main sources of frustrations will improve a marriage H6: Understanding how money is spent will eliminate frustration over money H7: AETA will show clearly how money is spent
  • 42. if TIMC have smart phones and TIMC regularly buy mobile apps and TIMC share a bank account and money is one of the main sources of 
 frustration for TIMC and reducing one of the main sources of frustrations will improve a marriage and understanding how money is spent will eliminate frustration over money and AETA will show clearly how money is spent then two income married couples will buy an automated expense tracking app because it improves their marriage Proof
  • 43. another gentle reminder What is the scientific method?
  • 44. Hypothesis 
 What must be true such that the thesis is true
  • 45. Hypothesis 
 What must be true such that the thesis is true Prediction
 What we expect to happen
  • 46. Hypothesis 
 What must be true such that the thesis is true Prediction
 What we expect to happen Experiment
 Test the prediction
  • 47. Hypothesis 
 What must be true such that the thesis is true Prediction
 What we expect to happen Experiment
 Test the prediction Trigger: What is a passing mark for the experiment?
  • 48. Hypothesis 
 What must be true such that the thesis is true Prediction
 What we expect to happen Experiment
 Test the prediction Trigger: What is a passing mark for the experiment? Question Questions that can be asked to run the experiment
  • 49. H: TIMC regularly buy mobile apps
  • 50. H: TIMC regularly buy mobile apps P: Half of all married people ages 25-50 will report they buy 5 apps or more per year
  • 51. H: TIMC regularly buy mobile apps P: Half of all married people ages 25-50 will report they buy 5 apps or more per year E: Interview 12 married people ages 25-50
  • 52. H: TIMC regularly buy mobile apps P: Half of all married people ages 25-50 will report they buy 5 apps or more per year E: Interview 12 married people ages 25-50 Trigger: 6 or more
  • 53. H: TIMC regularly buy mobile apps P: Half of all married people ages 25-50 will report they buy 5 apps or more per year E: Interview 12 married people ages 25-50 Trigger: 6 or more Q: tell me about what apps you use Q: how do you decide to add new apps Q: are some of the paid apps? Q: how often would you buy paid apps?
  • 54. H: Money is one of the main sources of 
 frustration for TIMC P: E: Trigger: Q: Q: Q: Try it yourself! write a prediction, experiment, trigger and questions
  • 55. H: Money is one of the main sources of 
 frustration for TIMC P: Couples will say they argue over money E: Interview 12 married people ages 25-50 Trigger: 8 or more Q: Q: Q:
  • 56. H: Money is one of the main sources of 
 frustration for TIMC P: Couples who argue over money will say they do it once or more per month E: Interview 8 married people ages 25-50 
 who argue over money Trigger: 6 or more say they argue monthly Q: Q: Q:
  • 57. Startup Thesis Ultimate Format CS will buy Product because VP
  • 58. Startup Thesis Evolution CS will buy <initial Product> because VP CS will buy SOMETHING because VP SOMEBODY will buy SOMETHING because VP CS will buy ANYTHING(!) because VP ••• CS will buy <final Product> because VP
  • 61. the VentureLab Way Customer Discovery Customer Validation ? ✓ Customer Creation Company Building Startup Company “Sorting Hat” Thesis Ideation ? T Idea product/market fit ✓ startup thesis ✓