Energy policy is clearly about choices. Mr Howard said in his book A Sense of Balance that it was a mistake to trade away an Australian Nuclear Industry in 1998, but the political realities at the time meant that Labor was opposed to Australia’s ability to develop life-saving medical products. Mr Howard did what needed to be done at the time. Unlike the proposed Voice, if the political will exists, the prohibition on nuclear can be amended by legislation. At the end of my presentation, I will show you a model I developed to understand how policies relating to networked technologies such as energy, transport, and telecommunications are impacted by choices made in the past. In effect, policies that follow certain patterns are like habits – they are easy to slip back into and difficult to change. But tonight, I want to make it clear that our energy future is a choice, and choosing our current policy to crash through or crash is a choice that will impact our prosperity and energy security for generations to come. To ensure I do not miss my key point in the time I have tonight, may I begin by urging that we choose wisely.

1. Australia’s Nuclear Future
DR MICHAEL DE PERCY FRSA FCILT
It’s your choice…
www.politicalscience.com.au

2. The Policy Problem 1: No Plan B
• Proliferation Paradox: Medical > Energy > Weapons
• Australia’s atomic age began in 1946 under Chifley (Menzies Library paper)
• Cemented by the Lucas Heights HIFAR (High Flux Australian Reactor)
• Menzies thought nuclear energy would not become affordable until the 1980s
• 1969-71 Jervis Bay nuclear plant proposal (Gorton – McMahon)
• Hawke Government captured by the anti-nuclear movement
• Paradox - Uranium mining and export allowed, but no permanent waste facility
• “Renewables” consume land resources, cost and time overruns
• Nuclear requires law and social licence (trade-off by Howard for OPAL)
• Cost issue ameliorated by 2050 Net-Zero pledge (AUKUS etc)
• Bowen’s ideologically-driven “crash through or crash” policy failing rapidly

3. The Policy Problem 2: Too costly, too slow

4. 2050 Vision: What does it look like?
• Ramped-up existing expertise: ANSTO, ANA, RAN
• Technology neutral rather than government picking winners
• Quick win: MMRs replace diesel generators (some 5% of emissions nationally)
• Governments at all levels and businesses engage with communities
• Recent ANA conference focus on SMRs and Gen 3+ technologies (Robert)
• Use existing grid and replace ageing generators with nuclear where appropriate
• Avoid path dependencies driven by government, i.e., sunk costs
• Turn universities on their heads – focus on national research priorities
• Accept that government cannot do everything alone
• A regulatory framework that stimulates investment and does not distort
• A “sense of balance” (Howard 2022).

5. 2050 Vision: We need to tell the story
• Labor Government on the ropes, their narrative is failing as costs are rising
• Labor’s failures will be cemented by the Voice failing at the referendum
• Greens’ public support for a terrorist organisation is having negative impacts
• Renewables only costs too much and takes too long, destroy the environment
• The power of narrative married to pragmatism
• Need to engage communities and tell them the truth, answer their questions
• We need a waste storage facility (SA failure story needs to be ramped up)
• Canberrans’ pride in net-zero ignores externalities suffered by regional NSW
• Jobs for “High Energy IQ” workers
• Less environmental damage, smaller environmental impact

6. Associated Policy Reforms
• Foreign Affairs and Trade: Canada (Nuclear Treaty), Pacific Islands, ASEAN, Korea
• Embedding technological neutrality in Australian policy
• Pragmatism versus ideology: smart choices using available options
• Challenging the aesthetic of the single national solution to infrastructure
• Career paths for nuclear submariners (STEM failures – no jobs!)
• Reconsider cap and trade emissions market (lost opportunity)
• New infrastructure before closing off the old: a transition policy
• Academic freedom and freedom of speech in universities

7. Technology and Policy: It’s a choice
Source: De Percy, M.A. and Batainah, H.S. (2021). Identifying historical policy regimes in the Canadian and Australian communications
industries using a model of path dependent, punctuated equilibrium, Policy Studies, 42 (1), pp. 42-59. DOI: 10.1080/01442872.2019.1581161.

8. References
De Percy, M.A. (2023, 23 August). Australia’s ideologically-driven energy crisis. The Spectator Australia.
Available at: https://www.spectator.com.au/2023/08/australias-ideologically-driven-energy-crisis/.
De Percy, M.A. (2023, 24 May). Labor’s coal-fired green dream. The Spectator Australia. Available
at: https://www.spectator.com.au/2023/05/labors-coal-fired-green-dream/.
De Percy, M.A. (2023, 15 May). Where’s our energy Plan B, Chris Bowen? The Spectator Australia. Available
at: https://www.spectator.com.au/2023/05/wheres-our-energy-plan-b-chris-bowen/.
De Percy, M.A. (2022, 14 November). Rewire the Nation or go nuclear? The Spectator Australia. Available
at: https://www.spectator.com.au/2022/11/rewire-the-nation-or-go-nuclear/.
De Percy, M.A. (2022, 1 November). Victorian Labor: Waste and rorts. The Spectator Australia. Available
at: https://www.spectator.com.au/2022/11/victorian-labor-waste-and-rorts/.
De Percy, M.A. (2022, 19 October). Old habits die hard. The Spectator Australia. Available
at: https://www.spectator.com.au/2022/10/old-habits-die-hard/.
De Percy, M.A. and Poljak, J. (2022, 5 May). Energy security: Embracing technological neutrality. The
Interpreter. Lowy Institute. Available at: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/energy-security-
embracing-technological-neutrality.
De Percy, M.A. (2021). Models of Government-Business Relations: Industry Policy Preferences versus
Pragmatism in Andrew Podger, Michael de Percy, and Sam Vincent (Eds.) Politics, Policy and Public
Administration in Theory and Practice: Essays in honour of Professor John Wanna. Canberra: ANU Press.

9. Australia’s Nuclear Future
DR MICHAEL DE PERCY FRSA FCILT
It’s your choice…
www.politicalscience.com.au
Thank you!