Presentation by Dr Michael de Percy, University of Canberra and John Poljak, keynumbers, to the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport's World Congress 2022, Hyatt Regency, Perth, WA, 23-26 October 2022. The presentation addresses the following issues: Why hydrogen? Does hydrogen plug the renewables gap? From high to low density means more volume to move! Is hydrogen cost effective? Hydrogen: Where is it at? The policy landscape and hydrogen. The presentation focuses on the policy aspects of hydrogen.

1. What are the possibilities for
hydrogen?
CILT World Congress 2022
Dr Michael de Percy FCILT
michael.depercy@canberra.edu.au
www.politicalscience.com.au
@madepercy
John Poljak
john.poljak@keynumbers.com
www.keynumbers.com
@keynumbers_

2. HYDROGEN: WHAT CAN IT DO?
• Why hydrogen?
• Does hydrogen plug the renewables gap?
• From high to low density means more volume to move!
• Is hydrogen cost effective?
• Hydrogen: Where is it at?
• The policy landscape and hydrogen

3. WHY HYDROGEN?
• Move away from fossil fuels because of net zero policy
• Renewables are not dispatchable - hydrogen to replace LNG?
• Hydrogen can be produced from multiple sources:
– Brown coal electricity (Brown)
– Black coal electricity (Black)
– Natural Gas (Grey)
– Natural Gas with Carbon Capture (Blue)
– Renewable Energy/Electrolyzer (Green)
– Nuclear energy (Pink)
• Can use existing infrastructure (pipes, petrol stations) - faster!
• Trade-offs:
– Volume/Logistics
– Cost Effectiveness vs CO2e emissions (CO2 equivalent - the global warming potential)
– Existing Infrastructure vs Hydrogen Embrittlement

4. CAN HYDROGEN PLUG THE GAP?

5. MOVE FROM HIGH TO LOW DENSITY ENERGY
Road Transport

6. MOVE FROM HIGH TO LOW DENSITY ENERGY
Shipping

7. MOVE FROM HIGH TO LOW DENSITY ENERGY
Air Transport

8. IS IT COST EFFECTIVE?

9. IS IT COST EFFECTIVE?

10. HYDROGEN: WHERE IS IT AT?
• Lots of “talk”:
• Hyundai HEVs not for general sale, Toyota recalibrating to EVs rather than
HEVs
• Hydrogen vs EVs: EVs winning - VHS versus Beta
• Electric aircraft (short haul) – Hydrogen aircraft (long haul)
• Andrew Forrest – hydrogen mining vehicles vs EV mining vehicles
• Korea Hydrogen project – plans to source ⅓ of its energy from H2 by 2050,
including three cities, 6.1m hydro-EVs
• Shell UK decommissioning hydrogen fuel stations retail
• What about ammonia and energy inefficiency?
• Stable aviation fuel (SAF)? Produced from sustainable feedstock,
similar composition to fossil fuels - up to 80% less CO2e? (BP 2022)

11. H2 EVs/EVs require additional mineral resources

12. THE POLICY LANDSCAPE AND HYDROGEN
• Federal and Victorian governments are betting on technology to solve
carbon emissions, but can government pick winners? (roof insulation,
NBN, CSIRO Wi-Fi, macadamia nuts)
• What happens politically in a world with:
– Planning regulations – battery in Queensland
– Rewiring the Nation – another NBN failure?
– Union hold on state-owned energy (Sydney Trains debacle)
• Nuclear energy and hydrogen (Canada-Australia Nuclear Treaty) - but
barriers are cultural/political
• Incentivises mining - one person’s green is another person’s brown?
• Morality of “green” versus the perceived realities
• “Snake oil” merchants and the messiness of innovation

13. • For more information on the concepts or reports we draw on here today, please
visit www.politicalscience.com.au and www.keynumbers.com
• The PowerPoint file is available via SlideShare and can be accessed from
www.politicalscience.com.au.
SUPPORTING MATERIALS
www.politicalscience.com.au www.keynumbers.com

14. The University of Canberra acknowledges the Ngunnawal people, traditional custodians
of the lands where Bruce Campus is situated. We wish to acknowledge and respect their
continuing culture and the contribution they make to the life of Canberra and the region.
We also acknowledge all other First Nations Peoples on whose lands we gather.
QUESTIONS? Thank you
Dr Michael de Percy FCILT
michael.depercy@canberra.edu.au
www.politicalscience.com.au
@madepercy
John Poljak
john.poljak@keynumbers.com
www.keynumbers.com
@keynumbers_
What are the possibilities for hydrogen?