This document discusses a CSIRO project exploring innovative energy practices for remote Australian communities. It examines how people currently use and save energy in remote areas, how these practices may be affected by different future scenarios, and what implications this has for policy. The project involves participatory workshops to develop a collaborative understanding of how alternative energy systems could impact livability. It considers key uncertainties around social, economic, technological and policy drivers that may influence future energy solutions for remote housing, enterprises and transportation. Scenario planning is proposed to explore how different visions and practices may play out under a range of futures. The implications will inform sustainable energy strategies for remote Australian settlements.

1. Exploring energy
futures for remote
Australian
communities
In partnership with CSIRO Ecosystem
sciences / climate adaptation flagship
Tira Foran (on behalf of David Fleming,
Bruno Spandonide, Rachel Williams, Digby Race)
May 2014

2. Research questions
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• What innovative ways do people use or save energy in remote Australia?
How do these practices make it easier to live in remote Australia?
• Will these practices still work in the future? Which practices work the best in
across a range of different futures?
• What do governments and other relevant bodies need to know about these
practices?

3. Project design
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4. Conceptual foundations
“Taking into account future uncertainties, we want to
develop a collaborative understanding of how alternative
energy-related practices may impact on the future
liveability of selected communities in remote Australia,
focusing on housing, enterprises and mobility.”
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5. Practices
Common
Understandings
(waste, luxury,
need)
Practical
knowledge
(how to get
things done)
Materials &
infrastructure
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12. | Tira Foran
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13. Innovation also occurs around
conventional energy
significant
offshore gas
geothermal
solar
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14. Innovation: learning
(not invention) Common
Understandings
(waste, luxury,
need)
Practical
knowledge
(how to get
things done)
Materials &
infrastructure
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15. ENTREPRENEURIAL
ACTIVITIES
(7) Advocacy
(1) Technology &
practice
development
(2) Knowledge
creation
(3) Knowledge
diffusion (through
networks), setting
expectations
(4) POLICY
FORMULATION
(5) Market
formation
(6) Market-based resource
Allocation
(by a range of actors)
non-market based allocation
One view of innovation (after Hekkert et al. 2007)
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16. Constraints on innovation
Social rules,
values, belief
systems
Planning & regulation
Energy, transport
& water, housing
E Citizen influence
constrained by political
opportunities,
enabled by social movements
Livelihoods &
Lifestyles
Power stations
Homes, vehicles
Innovation always takes place within a particular
regime
C Consumer
influence
D Developer
influence
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17. Visions
Scenarios
Thinking about alternative futures
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18. Visions – technical
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Visions – social

20. ‘GREAT TRANSITION’ SCENARIOS
Scenario approaches
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21. Understanding that emerges from a participatory,
knowledge-seeking process:
• Mutual understanding
• Shared understanding
• Consensus-based policy recommendations?
Drivers of collaborative approaches
• Awareness of limits of traditional governance
• Interdependency
• Complexity
Collaborative understanding
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22. Taking into account future uncertainties, we want to develop a
collaborative understanding of how alternative energy-related
systems of provisioning may impact on the future liveability of selected
communities in remote Australia, focusing on housing, enterprises and
mobility.
Collaborative understanding
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23. • CSIRO Ecosystem Science /Social Systems Institutions and
Governance Research Group
• Dr Tira Foran
Social Scientist
• t +61 2 6246 4308
• e tira.foran@csiro.au
•
• CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES / CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP
Thank you
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24. 5-7: Alice Solar Cities Program
8: Bushlight
9: Earthships, miscellaneous: Google Images
10: Earthships New Mexico: Martin Bond
11: Tim Acker (Warakurna Art Centre); NT Arts Infrastructure Projects (ANKAAA/Art Centres/ABA)Munupi Arts
visit (August 2009); Social network: Lejano, Ingram & Ingram (2013).
11, DesertSMART CoolMob
13: Commonwealth of Australia, Bureau of Energy and Resource Economics
15: Sitting in the shade: ABC.net.au
17: Zero Carbon Australia, DesertSMART CoolMob
19: http://scenarios2strategy.com/; http://decisionlab.org.uk/
Image credits
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25. Common
Understandings
(waste, luxury,
need)
Practical
knowledge
(how to get
things done)
Materials &
infrastructure
Session 3 –
innovative practices
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26. Session 3 – Suggestions
• 3.1 Look at the list of practices (from Discussion Paper)
• 3.2 Decide which practices the group would like to discuss further (either on list or not)
• 3.3 Discuss what the practice means to you. Why do you consider it meaningful or
important?
• Use the proposed indicators of sustainable consumption
• 3.4 Discuss how it emerged and how sustained (or not)
• Consider role of culture, place, specific history; leadership, persuasion advocacy;
government support, entrepreneurship, market development . . .
• Discuss the sequencing of these factors / processes
• 3.5 What inhibits this practice from spreading more widely
• Consider different kinds of diffusion (in scope, in level)
• Facilitator documents your discussion!
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27. Indicators of sustainable consumption
Indicator Descriptions Examples
1. Localisation Contributing to more self-reliant local
economies
Increasing local economic linkages
Reducing length of supply chain
Self-provisioning / local provisioning of food,
housing, energy
2. Reducing
ecological & social
footprint
Shifting consumption to reduce
negative impacts on others
Reducing energy and resource use
Adopting lower-carbon lifestyles;
Voluntary simplicity
3. Community
building
Nurturing inclusive & cohesive
communities
Effective support networks
desertSMART COOLmob
http://desertsmartcoolmob.org/
Social networks around green building,
permaculture
4. Collective action Collaboration leading to greater
empowerment of people in systems of
production and consumption
Local organizations and initiatives that offer
spaces or platforms for learning, collaboration,
and engagement with government and other
actors in policy processes
Carpooling systems that use governmental and
non-governmental organisation fleets
5. Building new
systems of provision
Developing new sets of beliefs,
values, technical rules that are more
sustainable (e.g. more localized,
lower footprint, pro-community)
Gaining institutional acceptance of alternative
housing, alternative food distribution, local
currency systems
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28. Visions
Scenario building
Session 4 – Thinking about futures
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29. Visions
• Strengths
• Limitations
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30. Examples of visions
Proponent Vision
Zero Carbon Australia
2020 Stationary Energy
Plan (Wright and Hearps
2011)
An ambitious plan to transform the Australian stationary energy sector into a 100% renewable energy
(RE) system in ten years (2011–2020), for a cost of approximately $370 billion.
Costs (including return on assets) could be covered by tariff increase of 6.5 c/kWh by 2020
60% of electricity to be generated from concentrating solar power (with molten salt storage), 40% from
wind, and 2% from hydropower and crop-waste biomass during extended periods of concurrent low solar
and wind availability.
A new National Grid to be formed by connecting three existing large grids: National Electricity Market,
South West Interconnected System, and North West Interconnected System.
Northern Territory grids also transform to 100% RE, but remain isolated
desertSMART COOLmob
(McClean and McHenry
2014)
100% of electricity in Alice Springs is generated from clean, renewable resources
Distributed generation (high % of users generate their own electricity from community-based or individual
systems)
All residents in Alice Springs can afford electricity for basic needs, including vulnerable people and those
on low incomes
Australian PV Association
(Lovegrove et al. 2012)
By 2020, Alice Springs and Central Australia have developed into a world-leading solar energy centre:
high levels of solar energy deployment, test & demonstration facilities, high levels of community support
and engagement, best-practice financial and market mechanisms for solar, energy efficiency, and
demand-side management.
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31. More examples of visions
Proponent Vision
NT Government, (Green
Energy Taskforce 2011)
Australian Government
(Commonwealth of Australia
2014)
20% of electricity demand to be met by renewable and low emission sources by 2020
A similar target has been established at the national level (41,000 GWh by 2020, plus small
scale solar generation) – to be achieved through the Renewable Energy Target (RET) scheme,
which obliges wholesalers and some generators to purchase renewable energy certificates from
approved providers (e.g. large and small-scale renewable power systems)
Pittock (2011) Remote Australia is self-sufficient in RE
Large-scale renewable-powered electricity exported to national grid
Remote communities and regional town benefit from construction, maintenance, and other
associated economic development
Various (Seyfang 2009,
Schor 2010, De Graaf and
Batker 2011)
Liveability is maintained and enhanced through social innovations that are provided by voluntary
social networks. Production of housing, food, energy is more distributed. People may work fewer
hours in the formal market economy, and instead invest more time in building human and social
capital needed for climate-adapted housing and food provisioning. Schor (2010) refers to this as
“plenitude.” Seyfang (2009) terms it “New Economics”.
Innovative & energy efficient
housing provision (This
paper)
By 2050, houses are designed and built using passive cooling and heating principles, and
achieve a minimum EER of 12 stars. Two new residential estates in Alice Springs developed
that do not require centrally supplied power.
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32. Scenario approaches
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33. Scenario approaches
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34. Australian energy scenarios: driving forces
(MMA & Strategis 2009; CSIRO 2013)
• Social
• How receptive will consumers be towards demand-side options?
• Economic
• How will the AUS economy grow over time?
• Will there be a structural shift towards services?
• Policy & regulation
• What is the strength of global and domestic policy commitment towards
reducing carbon emissions?
• Techno-economic
• How will the cost of various electricity generating technologies
change over time?
• What happens to fossil fuel prices
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35. MMA & Strategis (2009)
Scenario framework
Trends & Uncertainties
Scenario 1
(Fast rate of
change)
Scenario 2
(An uncertain
world)
Scenario 3
(A decentralised
world)
Scenario 4
(Oil shock &
adaptation)
Scenario 5
(Slow rate of
change)
Common trends Above average temperatures, more frequent, prolonged droughts
Renewable Energy Targets for electricity sector
(1) Economic growth High High Medium Low Low (mixed)
(2) Population growth High High Medium Medium Low
(3) Global carbon policy Strong
(≤450 ppm)
Weak
(≤550 ppm)
Strong (≤500
ppm)
Moderate (≤500
ppm)
Weak (≤550 ppm)
(4) Centralised supply-side
response
Strong Strong Weak Moderate
(renewable)
Moderate
(5) Decentralised supply-side
response,
Demand-side response
Strong Weak Strong Weak Weak
User attitudes Progressive Consumerist
Conservative
Very progressive Progressive Conservative
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36. Housing system scenarios: driving forces
(This project)
• Social
• What are the prospects for grassroots innovation? LOW v. HIGH
• Economic
• How will the state & local economy grow over time? LOW v. MODERATE
• Policy & regulation
• What is the strength of state and local policy commitment towards energy
efficient building standards? LOW v. HIGH
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37. Scenario framework: housing & grassroots
innovation in Alice Springs
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38. Storylines
• Isolated
• Bartering
• Boosted
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39. Session 5
Implications of uncertain futures for
innovative practices
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40. Session 5 (Part 1) – Suggestions
5.1 Begin with the meaningful/important practices discussed in Session 3
5.2 Choose at least two of the future storylines (from MMA & Strategies and/or the
housing futures draft storylines)
5.3 Discuss what implications arise for the practice/process in a given future world
• In futures that appear favourable to the practice/process, what specific
aspects of the future are favourable? What is the geog. scope of the
practice? What about the scope of institutional support?
• In futures that appear unfavourable to the practice/process, what specific
aspects of the future are unfavourable? What is the geog. scope of the
practice? What kind of relations exist between the practice and dominant
institutions?
• Be as specific / imaginative as you wish
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41. Session 5 (Part 2) – Suggestions
5.4 Do any practices appear to be viable in more than one future world?
What is it that makes them viable?
5.5 What could be done to improve the viability of other important practices
in adverse futures?
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42. • CSIRO Ecosystem Science /Social Systems Institutions and
Governance Research Group
• Dr Tira Foran
Social Scientist
• t +61 2 6246 4308
• e tira.foran@csiro.au
•
• CSIRO ECOSYSTEM SCIENCES / CLIMATE ADAPTATION FLAGSHIP
Thank you
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