1. Please refer to important disclaimer and disclosures at the end of the report
Presented by: Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA 3 November 2023
A. Stotz All Weather Strategy
āļāļĢāļ°āļāļēāļĒāļāļēāļĢāļĨāļāļāļļāļāđāļāļŦāļļāđāļāđāļĨāļ
āđāļāļ·āđāļāļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāļĢāļ°āļĒāļ°āļĒāļēāļ§
2. Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
2
astotz.com
Global āļĨāļāļāļļāļāļāļąāđāļ§āđāļĨāļ
Long-term āļŦāļ§āļąāļāļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāļĢāļ°āļĒāļ°
āļĒāļēāļ§
Diversified āļāļĢāļ°āļāļēāļĒāļāļēāļĢāļĨāļāļāļļāļ
GLD
21. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
21
astotz.com
āļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļāļāļēāļĢāļĨāļāļāļļāļ: 85% āđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research
This is not a recommendation or investment advice.
Exposure Asset class Weight (%)
Equity
US Equity 25.0
Developed Europe Equity 25.0
Japan Equity 25.0
Emerging markets Equity 5.0
Asia Pacific ex JP Equity 5.0
85.0
Bonds
Global bonds Bond 5.0
5.0
Others
Commodities Commodities 5.0
Gold Gold 5.0
10.0
100
22. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
22
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļŦāļļāđāļāđāļĨāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ 3.0% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļļāļĨāļēāļāļĄ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 31 October 2023.
āđāļāļāļĩ 2022 āļŦāļļāđāļāđāļĨāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ
18.0%
āļāļąāđāļāđāļāđāļāđāļāļāļĩ 2023 āļŦāļļāđāļāđāļĨāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§
āļāļķāđāļ 7.2%
āļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļķāļāđāļāļĢāļĩāļĒāļāļāđāļēāļāļ āļđāļĄāļīāļĢāļąāļāļĻāļēāļŠāļāļĢ āđ
āļāļēāļāļŠāļāļāļĢāļēāļĄāļāļīāļŠāļĢāļēāđāļāļĨ-āļāļēāđāļĨāļŠāđāļāļāđ
āđāļĨāļ°āļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļēāļāļŦāļ§āļąāļāļāļāļāļāļēāļĢāļāļ
āļāļāļāđāļāļĩāđāļĒāđāļāļĢāļ°āļāļąāļāļŠāļđāļāđāļāđ āļāļĢāļ°āļĒāļ°
āđāļ§āļĨāļēāļāļēāļāļāļāļāļąāļāļāļĨāļēāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Feb-19 Oct-19 Jun-20 Feb-21 Oct-21 Jun-22 Feb-23 Oct-23
World stocks
World bonds
Commodities
Gold
Total return indices, rebased to 100
23. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
23
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļŦāļļāđāļāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ 2.8% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļļāļĨāļēāļāļĄ
2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 31 October 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 25% āđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
āļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ
āļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļķāļāđāļāļĢāļĩāļĒāļāļāļāļāļŠāļāļāļĢāļēāļĄ āļāļķāđāļ
āļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļĄāļĩāļŠāđāļ§āļāļĢāđāļ§āļĄāļāļąāđāļ 2
āļŠāļāļāļĢāļēāļĄ āđāļĨāļ°āļ āļēāļ§āļ°āļāļāļāđāļāļĩāđāļĒāļŠāļđāļ
āļāļāļāļąāļāļāļĨāļēāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ
āļāđāļāđāļāļ·āđāļāļ
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Feb-19 Oct-19 Jun-20 Feb-21 Oct-21 Jun-22 Feb-23 Oct-23
US
Dev. Europe
EM
Asia Pac ex JP
Japan
Total return indices, rebased to 100
24. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
24
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļŦāļļāđāļāļĒāļļāđāļĢāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ 3.0% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļļāļĨāļēāļāļĄ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 31 October 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 25% āđāļāļāļĨāļēāļ
āļŦāļļāđāļāļĒāļļāđāļĢāļāļāļĨāļļāđāļĄāļāļąāļāļāļēāđāļĨāđāļ§
āļāļēāļĢāļāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāļāđāđāļĻāļĢāļĐāļāļāļīāļāļāļĩāđ
āļāđāļāļāđāļ āđāļĨāļ°āļ āļēāļ§āļ°āļŠāļāļāļĢāļēāļĄ
āļāļāļāļąāļāļāļĨāļēāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļĒāļļāđāļĢāļ
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Feb-19 Oct-19 Jun-20 Feb-21 Oct-21 Jun-22 Feb-23 Oct-23
US
Dev. Europe
EM
Asia Pac ex JP
Japan
Total return indices, rebased to 100
25. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
25
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļāļĨāļēāļāđāļāļīāļāđāļŦāļĄāđāļāļēāļāļĨāļāļēāļāđāļāđāđāļĒāđāļāļĩāđāļŠāļļāļāđāļāđ āļāļāļąāļāļāļąāļ 2 āđāļ
āļāļĨāļļāđāļĄāļŦāļļāđāļ āđāļāļĒāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ 3.8% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļļāļĨāļēāļāļĄ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 31 October 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 5% āđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
āļāļĨāļēāļāđāļāļīāļāđāļŦāļĄāđ
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Feb-19 Oct-19 Jun-20 Feb-21 Oct-21 Jun-22 Feb-23 Oct-23
US
Dev. Europe
EM
Asia Pac ex JP
Japan
Total return indices, rebased to 100
26. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
26
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļŦāļļāđāļāđāļāđāļāļĩāļĒāđāļāļāļīāļāļī āļāđāļĄāđāļĢāļ§āļĄāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđ āļāļāļēāļāļĨāļāļēāļāđāļāđāđāļĒāđāļāļĩāđāļŠāļļāļ
āđāļāļĒāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ 4.8% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļļāļĨāļēāļāļĄ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 31 October 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 5% āđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
āđāļāđāļāļĩāļĒāđāļāļāļīāļāļīāļāđāļĄāđāļĢāļ§āļĄāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđāļ
āļāļēāļĢāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļāļāļĒāđāļēāļāļĄāļĩāļāļąāļĒāļŠāļēāļāļąāļ
āļāļāļāļāļĨāļēāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļāļēāļāđāļŦāļāđ āđāļāđāļ
āļāļĩāļ āđāļāđāļŦāļ§āļąāļ āđāļĨāļ°āļāļāļŠāđāļāļĢāđāļĨāļĩāļĒ
āļāļāļāļąāļāļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāļāļāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĨāļļāđāļĄ
āļāļĩāđ
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Feb-19 Oct-19 Jun-20 Feb-21 Oct-21 Jun-22 Feb-23 Oct-23
US
Dev. Europe
EM
Asia Pac ex JP
Japan
Total return indices, rebased to 100
27. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
27
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđ āļāļāļēāļāļĨāļāļēāļāđāļāđāļāļĩāļāļĩāđāļŠāļļāļ āđāļāđāļāđāļĒāļąāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ
2.7% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļļāļĨāļēāļāļĄ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 31 October 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 25% āđāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđāļ
āļ āļēāļ§āļ°āļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļķāļāđāļāļĢāļĩāļĒāļāļāđāļēāļāļ āļđāļĄāļī
āļĢāļąāļāļĻāļēāļŠāļāļĢ āđāļāļāļāļąāļāļāļĨāļēāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđāļ
āļĄāļēāļāļĢāļāļēāļĢāļāļēāļĢāļāļĢāļ°āļāļļāđāļāđāļĻāļĢāļĐāļāļāļīāļāļāļāļ
āļāļĩāļāļĢāļ°āļĨāļāļāđāļŦāļĄāđāļāļ°āļāđāļ§āļĒāļāļĨāļēāļĒāļāļ§āļēāļĄ
āļāļāļāļąāļāļāđāļāļāļĨāļēāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđāļ āđāļāļĢāļēāļ°āļāļĩāļ
āđāļāđ āļāļāļĢāļ°āđāļāļĻāļāļĩāđāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđāļāļŠāđāļāļāļāļāđāļāļĄāļēāļ
āļāļĩāđāļŠāļļāļāđāļāļāļĩ 2022
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Feb-19 Oct-19 Jun-20 Feb-21 Oct-21 Jun-22 Feb-23 Oct-23
US
Dev. Europe
EM
Asia Pac ex JP
Japan
Total return indices, rebased to 100
28. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
28
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļāļąāļāļāļāļąāļāļĢāđāļĨāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļāļāđāļāđāļāļ·āđāļāļ āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļļāļĨāļēāļāļĄ
2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 31 October 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 5% āđāļ
āļāļąāļāļāļāļąāļāļĢāđāļĨāļ āđāļāđāļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļ
āļāļđāļāļāļāļāļąāļāļāđāļ§āļĒāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļēāļāļŦāļ§āļąāļāļāļĩāđ
āļāļāļāđāļāļĩāđāļĒāļāļ°āļāļĒāļđāđāđāļāļĢāļ°āļāļąāļāļŠāļđāļāđāļāđāļ
āļĢāļ°āļĒāļ°āđāļ§āļĨāļēāļāļēāļ
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Feb-19 Oct-19 Jun-20 Feb-21 Oct-21 Jun-22 Feb-23 Oct-23
World stocks
World bonds
Commodities
Gold
Total return indices, rebased to 100
29. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
29
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļŠāļīāļāļāđāļēāđāļ āļāļ āļąāļāļāđāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ 0.7% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļ
āļāļļāļĨāļēāļāļĄ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 31 October 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 5% āļāļąāļāļŠāļīāļāļāđāļē
āđāļ āļāļ āļąāļāļāđ
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Feb-19 Oct-19 Jun-20 Feb-21 Oct-21 Jun-22 Feb-23 Oct-23
World stocks
World bonds
Commodities
Gold
Total return indices, rebased to 100
30. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
30
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļāđāļēāļĄāļąāļāļāļīāļ WTI āļāļī āļāļāļĩāđ 82 āļāļāļĨāļĨāļēāļĢ āđāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļāđāļ
āļāļēāļĢ āđāđāļĢāļĨ āļ āļŠāļīāđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļļāļĨāļēāļāļĄ 2023
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Data as of 31 October 2023.
āļāļēāļāļļāļāļīāļāļēāļĢāļ°āđāļāļĩāļĒāđāļĨāļ°āļĢāļąāļŠāđāļāļĩāļĒāļĒāļąāļāļāļĨāļīāļ
āļāđāļēāļĄāļąāļāđāļāļāļąāļāļĢāļēāļāļĩāđāļāđāļēāļāđāļāđāļ
āļŠāļāļāļĢāļēāļĄāļāļīāļŠāļĢāļēāđāļāļĨ â āļāļēāđāļĨāļŠāđāļāļāđ
āļāļēāđāļŦāđāđāļāļīāļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāđāļĄāđāđāļāđāļāļāļāļāđāļ
āļāļļāļāļāļēāļāļāđāļēāļĄāļąāļāļāļēāļāļāļĨāļļāđāļĄāļāļĢāļ°āđāļāļĻ
āļāļēāļŦāļĢāļąāļ
āļāļļāļāļŠāļāļāđāļāļĩāđāđāļāļīāđāļĄāļāļķāđāļ āđāļĨāļ°āļāļļāļāļāļēāļāļāļĩāđāļāļķāļ
āļāļąāļ§āļāļēāđāļŦāđāļĢāļēāļāļēāļāđāļēāļĄāļąāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§
āđāļāļīāđāļĄāļāļķāđāļ
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Sep-89 Dec-93 Mar-98 Jun-02 Sep-06 Dec-10 Mar-15 Jun-19 Sep-23
Crude oil - WTI spot price (US$/bbl)
31. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
31
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āđāļĨāļŦāļ°āļĄāļĩāļāđāļēāļŠāļĢāđāļēāļāļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāđāļāđāļāļĩ āđāļĄāļ·āđāļāļāļąāļāļĨāļāļāļļāļ
āļāđāļāļāļāļēāļĢāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļĨāļāļāļ āļąāļĒāđāļāļāļēāļĢāļĨāļāļāļļāļ
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, TradingView, Refinitiv.
Note: Price data as of 31 October 2023.
7
2
(3) (4)
(6)
(8)
(6)
(4)
(2)
-
2
4
6
8
Precious
metals
Agriculture Industrial
metals
Livestock Energy
Past 1 month total return (%, USD)
32. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
32
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļĢāļēāļāļēāļāļāļāļāļēāļŠāļĢāđāļēāļāļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāđāļāđāļāļĩāļāļĩāđāļŠāļļāļ āđāļāļĒ
āļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļāļķāđāļ 5.8% āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļļāļĨāļēāļāļĄ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 31 October 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 5% āđāļāļāļāļāļāļē
āļĢāļēāļāļēāļāļāļāļāļēāļāļīāļāļāļĩāđ 1,984
āļāļāļĨāļĨāļēāļĢ āđāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļāđāļāļāļāļāļ āđ
āļāļ§āļēāļĄāđāļĄāđāđāļāđāļāļāļāļāļĩāđāđāļāļīāđāļāļŠāļđāļāļāļķāđāļāļāļē
āđāļŦāđāļāļąāļāļĨāļāļāļļāļāļ§āļīāđāļāđāļāđāļēāļŠāļđāđāļŠāļīāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļĒāđ
āļāļĨāļāļāļ āļąāļĒ āļŦāļāļļāļāļĢāļēāļāļēāļāļāļāļāļē
āļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļŠāļđāļāļāļķāđāļ
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Feb-19 Oct-19 Jun-20 Feb-21 Oct-21 Jun-22 Feb-23 Oct-23
World stocks
World bonds
Commodities
Gold
Total return indices, rebased to 100
33. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
33
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļāļļāļāļŠāļāļļāļĨāđāļāļīāļāļāđāļāļāļāđāļēāļĨāļāļāļĒāđāļēāļāļĄāļĩāļāļąāļĒāļŠāļēāļāļąāļāđāļĄāļ·āđāļāđāļāļĩāļĒāļ
āļāļąāļāļāļāļāļāļēāđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļļāļĨāļēāļāļĄ 2023
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv
āđāļāļīāļāļŠāļāļļāļĨāļāļ·āđāļ āđ āļāļąāđāļāļŦāļĄāļāļāđāļāļāļāđāļē
āđāļĄāļ·āđāļāđāļāļĩāļĒāļāļāļąāļāļĢāļēāļāļēāļāļāļāļāļēāļāļąāđāļāđāļāđ
āļāđāļāļāļĩ
āļāļēāļĢāđāļāđāļāļāđāļēāļāļāļāđāļāļīāļāļāļāļĨāļĨāļēāļĢ āđ
āļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļāļēāđāļŦāđāļĢāļēāļāļēāļāļāļāļāļē
āļāđāļēāļĨāļāđāļāļĢāļđāļāđāļŦāļĢāļĩāļĒāļāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ
Stronger/(Weaker) versus Gold (%)
Currency Code
Gold price
(lcy/t oz) 1M 3M YTD 1Y 5Y 10Y
United States Dollar USD 1,983 (7.3) (0.9) (8.7) (21.4) (63.3) (49.9)
Euro EUR 1,875 (7.2) (4.9) (10.0) (13.4) (74.6) (92.4)
Japanese Yen JPY 300,762 (8.9) (7.6) (25.7) (23.8) (119.3) (131.1)
Sterling GBP 1,632 (7.7) (6.6) (8.2) (14.6) (71.5) (97.8)
Swiss franc CHF 1,805 (6.7) (5.4) (7.0) (10.4) (47.4) (50.5)
Renminbi CNY 14,507 (7.5) (3.4) (15.3) (21.6) (71.3) (79.9)
Thai baht THB 71,666 (6.2) (6.6) (13.5) (15.3) (78.2) (73.9)
34. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
34
astotz.com
āļāļąāđāļāđāļāđāļāļąāļāļāļąāđāļ AWS āļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļāļķāđāļ 21.3%
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & K-WORLDX), 40% bonds
(SCBGLOB). The benchmarkâs and strategyâs performance is calculated from the fundsâ NAV, which is after
management fees but does not consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Price data as of 31 October 2023.
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Feb-19 Apr-20 Jun-21 Aug-22 Oct-23
AWS
Total return, rebased to 100
121.3
35. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
35
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: āļāļāļāļāļēāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļķāđāļ 21.3% āđāļĨāđāļ§ AWS āļĒāļąāļāļāļēāļāļĨāļāļēāļ
āđāļŦāļāļ·āļāļāļ§āđāļēāļāļāļĢ āđāļ 60/40 āļāļąāļāļāļąāđāļāđāļāđāļāđāļāļāļąāđāļāļāļĒāļđāđ 11.1%
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & K-WORLDX), 40% bonds
(SCBGLOB). The benchmarkâs and strategyâs performance is calculated from the fundsâ NAV, which is after
management fees but does not consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Price data as of 31 October 2023.
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Feb-19 Apr-20 Jun-21 Aug-22 Oct-23
AWS
60/40*
Total return, rebased to 100
121.3
110.2
36. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
36
astotz.com
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.
āđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļļāļĨāļēāļāļĄ 2023: AWS āļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ 2.4% āļāļķāđāļāđāļĒāđāļāļ§āđāļē
āļāļāļĢ āđāļ 60/40 āļāļĒāļđāđ 0.1%
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & K-WORLDX), 40% bonds
(SCBGLOB). The benchmarkâs and strategyâs performance is calculated from the fundsâ NAV, which is after
management fees but does not consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Price data as of 31 October 2023.
āļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđāļāļāļēāļāļĨāļāļēāļāđāļāđāļāļĩāļāļĩāđāļŠāļļāļ
āđāļāļĒāđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđāļ
25% āđāļāđāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđāļāļāđāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ
2.7%
āļŦāļļāđāļāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āđāļĨāļ°āļŦāļļāđāļāļĒāļļāđāļĢāļāļāļĨāļļāđāļĄ
āļāļąāļāļāļēāđāļĨāđāļ§āļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļāļĄāļēāļāļāļ§āđāļē
2.7% āđāļĨāđāļāļāđāļāļĒ
5.8
(0.7)
(1.3)
(2.3) (2.4) (2.7) (2.8) (3.0)
(3.8)
(4.8)
(6)
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
Past 1 month total return (%)
37. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
37
astotz.com
AWS (%) Since inception 2yrs 12mth YTD23 6mth 3mth 1mth
Return 21.3 (5.0) 2.5 (0.7) (2.8) (6.5) (2.4)
Standard deviation* 10.0 9.5 7.6 7.5 7.9 8.3 9.5
Risk-adjusted return* (x) 0.4 (0.3) 0.3 (0.1) (0.7) (2.8) (2.6)
Maximum drawdown (20.5) (14.7) (7.1) (7.1) (7.1) (7.1) (3.5)
Drawdown-adjusted return (x) 1.0 na 0.4 na na na na
60/40 (%) Since inception 2yrs 12mth YTD23 6mth 3mth 1mth
Return 10.2 (22.2) (1.4) (1.4) (5.8) (8.5) (2.3)
Standard deviation* 11.9 10.6 9.2 8.2 8.2 8.6 9.1
Risk-adjusted return* (x) 0.2 (1.1) (0.2) (0.2) (1.4) (3.5) (2.7)
Maximum drawdown (21.5) (19.4) (9.5) (9.5) (9.5) (9.4) (4.2)
Drawdown-adjusted return (x) 0.5 na na na na na na
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: AWS āļŠāļĢāđāļēāļāļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāđāļāđāļāļĩ
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & K-WORLDX), 40% bonds
(SCBGLOB). The benchmarkâs and strategyâs performance is calculated from the fundsâ NAV, which is after
management fees but does not consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Price data as of 31 October 2023.
āđāļĄāļ·āđāļāđāļāļĩāļĒāļāļāļąāļāļāļāļĢ āđāļ 60/40
AWS āđāļŦāđāļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāļāļĩāđāļāļĩ āđāļĄāļ·āđāļ
āđāļāļĩāļĒāļāļāļąāļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāđāļŠāļĩāđāļĒāļāđāļāļĢāļ°āļĒāļ°āļĒāļēāļ§
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.
38. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
38
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: AWS āļĄāļĩāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļąāļāļāļ§āļāļāđāļēāļāļ§āđāļēāļāļāļĢ āđāļ 60/40
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & K-WORLDX), 40% bonds
(SCBGLOB). The benchmarkâs and strategyâs performance is calculated from the fundsâ NAV, which is after
management fees but does not consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Price data as of 31 October 2023.
āļŠāļąāļāļŠāđāļ§āļāļāļēāļĢāļĨāļāļāļļāļāđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ 25-
65% āļāđāļ§āļĒāļĨāļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļąāļāļāļ§āļ
āļāļāļāļāļēāļāđāļ§āļĒāļĨāļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāļāļąāļāļāļ§āļ
āđāļāļĒāļĢāļ§āļĄāļāļāļāļāļāļĢ āđāļ āđāļāļ·āđāļāļāļāļēāļ
āđāļāđāļāļŠāļīāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļĒāđāļāļĩāđāđāļĄāđāļĄāļĩ
āļāļ§āļēāļĄāļŠāļąāļĄāļāļąāļāļāđāļāļąāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee
of future performance, and no representation or warranty, expressed
or implied, is made regarding future performance.
0.9
10.0
11.9
14.4
16.1
17.9
20.8 20.9 21.0 21.0
-
5
10
15
20
25
Annualized volatility (%)
39. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
39
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: AWS āļāļēāļāļāļļāļāļāđāļāļĒāļāļ§āđāļēāļāļāļĢ āđāļ 60/40 9 āļāļĢāļąāđāļ
āļāļēāļ 10 āļāļĢāļąāđāļāđāļāļāđāļ§āļāļāļĩāđāļāļĨāļēāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļāļĄāļēāļāļāļĩāđāļŠāļļāļ
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & K-WORLDX), 40% bonds
(SCBGLOB). The benchmarkâs and strategyâs performance is calculated from the fundsâ NAV, which is after
management fees but does not consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Price data as of 31 October 2023.
āļāļļāļāđāļāđāļāļŠāļēāļāļąāļāļāļāļ AWS āļāļ·āļ
āļāļēāļĢāļāļēāļāļąāļāļāļēāļĢāļāļēāļāļāļļāļāđāļĄāļ·āđāļ
āļāļĨāļēāļāļŦāļļāđāļāđāļĨāļāļāļĢāļąāļāļāļąāļ§āļĨāļ
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.
(7.0)
(5.5)
(4.0)
(4.5)
(3.1) (3.2)
(2.7)
(2.3) (2.2) (2.1)
(8)
(7)
(6)
(5)
(4)
(3)
(2)
(1)
-
AWS
60/40*
Return on the 10 worst-returning days of Global equity (%)
40. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
40
astotz.com
āļĢāļĩāļ§āļīāļ§: AWS āļāļēāļāļĨāļāļēāļāđāļāđāđāļĒāđāļāļ§āđāļēāļāļāļĢ āđāļ 60/40 āđāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļļāļĨāļēāļāļĄ 2023 āđāļāđāđāļāļĒāļĢāļ§āļĄ
āļŠāļĢāđāļēāļāļāļĨāļāļēāļāđāļāđāļŠāļđāļāļāļ§āđāļēāļāļāļĢ āđāļ 60/40 āđāļ 59% āļāļāļāđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļąāđāļāļŦāļĄāļ
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv. Notes: *60% equity (MSCI AC World & K-WORLDX), 40% bonds
(SCBGLOB). The benchmarkâs and strategyâs performance is calculated from the fundsâ NAV, which is after
management fees but does not consider sales charges, e.g., front-end fees. Price data as of 31 October 2023.
AWS āļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļāļŠāļĢ āđāļēāļ
āļāļĨāļāļāļāđāļāļāđāļŦāļāļ·āļāļāļ§āđāļēāļāļāļĢ āđāļ
60/40 āđāļ 33 āđāļāļ·āļāļāļāļēāļ 56
āđāļāļ·āļāļ
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and
no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance.
(5)
(4)
(3)
(2)
(1)
-
1
2
3
4
5
Mar-19 Feb-20 Jan-21 Dec-21 Nov-22 Oct-23
AWS vs. 60/40*
Total return (%)
AWS outperformed60/40*
AWS underperformed60/40*
54. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
54
astotz.com
āļĄāļļāļĄāļĄāļāļ: āļāļēāļĢāđāļāđāļāļāđāļēāļāļāļāđāļāļīāļāļāļāļĨāļĨāļēāļĢ āđāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļŠāđāļāļāļĨāļĨāļ
āļāđāļāļāļĨāļēāļāđāļāļīāļāđāļŦāļĄāđ
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, FRED
āļāļēāļĢāđāļāđāļāļāđāļēāļāļāļāđāļāļīāļāļāļāļĨāļĨāļēāļĢ āđ
āļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļāļēāđāļŦāđāļāļēāļĢāļāļēāļĢāļ°āļŦāļāļĩāđāļāļĩāđ
āđāļāđāļāđāļāļīāļāļāļāļĨāļĨāļēāļĢ āđāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļāļāļ
āļāļĢāļ°āđāļāļĻāđāļāđāļāđāļāļĩāļĒāļāļēāđāļāđāļĒāļēāļāļāļķāđāļ
āđāļāļ·āđāļāļāļāļēāļāļāļ°āļāđāļāļāđāļ āđāđāļāļīāļāļŠāļāļļāļĨ
āļāđāļāļāļāļīāđāļāļĄāļēāđāļĨāļāļĄāļēāļāļāļķāđāļ
āļāļēāļĢāđāļāđāļāļāļąāļ§āļāļāļāđāļāļīāļāļāļāļĨāļĨāļēāļĢ āđ
āļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ āļāļ°āđāļāđāļāļāļĨāđāļŠāļĩāļĒāļāđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
āļāļĨāļēāļāđāļāļīāļāđāļŦāļĄāđ
112
75
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Nov-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
Feb-23
Mar-23
Apr-23
May-23
Jun-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Real Broad Dollar Index
Emerging markets
Index, rebased to 100
55. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
55
astotz.com
ïŦ āļāļĩāļāļāļĒāļđāđāļĢāļ°āļŦāļ§āđāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāļāļēāđāļāļīāļāļāđāļĒāļāļēāļĒāļāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāđāļāļīāļāđāļāļ
āļāđāļāļāļāļĨāļēāļĒ āđāļĨāļ°āļāļēāļĢāđāļ āđāļĄāļēāļāļĢāļāļēāļĢāļāļēāļāļāļēāļĢāļāļĨāļąāļ āđāļāļ·āđāļ
āļāļĢāļ°āļāļļāđāļāđāļĻāļĢāļĐāļāļāļīāļāļāđāļ§āļĒ
ïŦ āļĒāļąāļāđāļĄāđāļāļąāļāđāļāļāļ§āđāļēāđāļĻāļĢāļĐāļāļāļīāļāļāļĩāļāļāļķāļāļāļļāļāļāđāļēāļŠāļļāļāđāļĨāđāļ§āļŦāļĢāļ·āļāļĒāļąāļ
ïŦ āđāļĄāđāļ§āđāļēāđāļĻāļĢāļĐāļāļāļīāļāļāļĩāļāļāļ°āļāļ·āđāļāļāļąāļ§āđāļāđāđāļāđāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĩāļāļāļēāļāļāļđāļ
āļāļāļāļąāļāļāļēāļāļāļ§āļēāļĄāđāļŠāļĩāđāļĒāļāļāđāļēāļāļ āļđāļĄāļīāļĢāļąāļāļĻāļēāļŠāļāļĢ āđ
āļĄāļļāļĄāļĄāļāļ: āļāļĩāļāļāļēāļĨāļąāļāļĄāļĩāļāļąāļāļŦāļē
56. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
56
astotz.com
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Feb-19 Oct-19 Jun-20 Feb-21 Oct-21 Jun-22 Feb-23 Oct-23
US
EM
Asia Pac ex JP
China A
Total return indices, rebased to 100
Total return indices, rebased to 100
āļĄāļļāļĄāļĄāļāļ: āļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĩāļāļĄāļĩāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļāļĄāļēāļāđāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļĨāļēāļāđāļāļīāļāđāļŦāļĄāđ
āđāļĨāļ°āļāļĨāļēāļāđāļāđāļāļĩāļĒāđāļĄāđāļĢāļ§āļĄāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđ āļ
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research, Refinitiv.
Note: Monthly data as of 31 October 2023.
āđāļĢāļēāđāļŦāđāļāđāļēāļŦāļāļąāļ 5% āđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
āļāļĨāļēāļāđāļāļīāļāđāļŦāļĄāđ āđāļĨāļ° 5% āđāļāļŦāļļāđāļ
āļāļĨāļēāļāđāļāđāļāļĩāļĒāđāļĄāđāļĢāļ§āļĄāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđāļ
57. 3 November 2023
Andrew Stotz, PhD, CFA
57
astotz.com
2.2
44
-
10
20
30
40
50
-
1
2
3
1992 1999 2006 2013 2020
Japan non-financial companies' cash holdings
Cash holdings as % of GDP (RHS)
(US$trn) (%)
āļĄāļļāļĄāļĄāļāļ: āļāļĢāļīāļĐāļąāļāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđ āļāđāļāđāļāļŠāļ°āļŠāļĄāđāļāļīāļāļŠāļāđāļ§āđāļāļēāļāļ§āļāļĄāļēāļ
āđāļāļāđāļ§āļāļāļĻāļ§āļĢāļĢāļĐāļāļĩāđāļāđāļēāļāļĄāļē
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Japan Ministry of Finance, World Bank
āļāļąāļāļāļļāļāļąāļāļāļēāļāļ§āđāļēāļĄāļĩāđāļāļīāļāļŠāļāļāļēāļāļ§āļ
2.2 āļĨāđāļēāļāļĨāđāļēāļāļāļāļĨāļĨāļēāļĢ āđāļŠāļŦāļĢāļąāļāļŊ
āļŦāļĢāļ·āļāđāļāļĩāļĒāļāđāļāđāļē 44% āļāļāļ
GDP
āđāļāđāļāđāļāļāļēāļŠāđāļŦāđāļāļĢāļīāļĐāļąāļāļāļĩāđāļāļļāđāļ
āļŠāļēāļĄāļēāļĢāļāļāļ·āđāļāļŦāļļāđāļāļāļ·āļ āļĨāļāļāļļāļ āļŦāļĢāļ·āļ
āļāļ·āđāļāļāļīāļāļāļēāļĢāđāļāđāđāļāđāļāļāđāļ
74. 3 November 2023
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