Dr . K.C. Ravi delivered his presentation on "Future Agriculture Outlook" in ASSOCHAM's 7th AgriculturalSummit "AGRI@8%- Challenges and Way Out“.

1. ASSOCHAM's 7th Agricultural Summit
"AGRI@8%- Challenges and Way Out“
Inputs, Farm Technologies & Productivity
Dr. K C Ravi
15th February 2013
Classification: PUBLIC

2. 2
Future Agriculture
Outlook
Classification: PUBLIC

3. 3
Did you know that…?
By 2050, global population will rise by about
a third to 9 billionpeople
Out of which 1.7 billion will be in India alone
Calorie demand will increase by 50%
52% of India’s population is involved in
Agriculture
yet it contributes just 13.7%to India’s GDP
Source: FAO, World Bank statistics, Syngenta
Classification: PUBLIC

4. 4
World Population and Environmental stresses are increasing
World Stress Map
Source: UNEP, Cline, Syngenta
Climate change impact
High
Medium
Low
Classification: PUBLIC
Reduction in Water
and Arable Land
1950
2.5
billion
2011
7 billion
2050
9 billionEmerging
Developed
Source: FAO, Syngenta analysis
More than 80% of
population growth happens
in emerging markets
The Demand for Food and
Feed will increase by
50% from 2010 to 2050
1950 1 hectare
fed 2 people
2030
1 hectare needs
to feed 5 people

5. 5
The grower’s world is getting increasingly complex
Future
Farmer
Global Financial
Instability
Value Chain
Governments
and Regulators
Societal
Pressures
Environmental
pressures
Input costs
Classification: PUBLIC

6. 6
Challenges facing
the Indian Grower
Classification: PUBLIC

7. 7
Growing population and food demand
Classification: PUBLIC
By 2050 total calorie
requirement will go up from
2495 to 3000. Food grain
production would need to
increase by 5.5 MT annually.
Continuing migration of people into cities, an increase
in wealth and a shift towards diets rich in meat and
dairy, will raise demand for high-value food
commodities by > 100%
High value foods require
better infrastructure for
handling, value-addition,
processing, marketing.
Key challenges for Input providers: Develop technologies and
management options in a deteriorating production environment.
Create infrastructure and evolve institutional arrangements for
production, post-harvest and marketing of high-value commodities
and their value-added products.

8. 8
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0.3
0.4
0.5
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0.7
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Brazil
Russia
India
China
Indonesia
USA
M
exico
South
Africa
Zim
babw
e
HectareofArableLand
Source: UN and FAO, 2005
Arable Land (ha) per person
Most populous countries have
least room to expand
Produce more with less…
Land | Water | Labor
Growing resource constraints
Much of India’s total arable area already in use (46%)
Most remaining land has serious soil and terrain constraints
Classification: PUBLIC

9. 9
Agriculture is India’s largest user of water
>40% lost to inefficient practices
Syngenta Solution: ‘More crop per drop’
● Drip irrigation ensures effective water
and fertilizer supply.
● Drought-tolerant seeds help produce -
reliable yields even when water is scarce.
● Weed control with herbicides lowers
tillage, improves water absorption.
● Better Agronomy: Hi-Pop, Mulching,
Protected Cultivation help increase yield.
● New irrigation technologies can
reduce water use 30% to 60%.
Source: UN-Water and FAO
Produce more with less…
Land | Water | Labor
Growing resource constraints
Classification: PUBLIC

10. 10
● Farm demographics- aging
population and migration to
cities influence agricultural
labor availability
● High-tech machines, complex
production processes and
strict production regulations
require skilled labor. This
affects capital requirements
Source: UN-Water and FAO
Produce more with less…
Land | Water | Labor
Growing resource constraints
Classification: PUBLIC

11. 11
Indian agriculture dominated by
small farmers
Landholdings declined
from 2.30ha in 70s to
1.32 ha in 2000-01
If this continues,
average size would be
a mere 0.68 ha in
2020 and 0.32 ha in
2030
Decline causing fall in
farm income.
Smallholders moving
to postharvest and
non-farm activities
Input provider challenges:
Evolve technologies and
management options for
smallholders and involve them in
agri-supply chain through
institutional innovations
Classification: PUBLIC

12. 12 Classification: PUBLIC
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), World Bank
Climate change
By the end of this century, global temperature will increase by 1.8 to 4.0°C.
This will Impact water availability, cause floods, droughts, recession of glaciers.
Dynamics of pests and diseases would be significantly altered.
Which will result in greater instability in food production
Input provider challenges: Increased adaptation and mitigation research, capacity-
building, changes in policies, and regional as well as global co-operation.
Syngenta developing framework to understand environmental impacts of agriculture
to increase productivity per hectare while reducing the environmental impacts.
•

13. 13
Degradation of production environment
● Soil erosion has degraded 120.72
million ha of land in India
● 8.4 million ha has soil salinity and
water-logging
● Water-table & water quality
deteriorating.
● Green-revolution belt exhibiting
problems owing to over-
exploitation and mismanagement
of soil-and-water resources
● Input provider challenge: Stop
further degradation and
rehabilitate degraded land and
water resources cost-effectively
Classification: PUBLIC

14. 14
Future orientation of
input providers
Classification: PUBLIC

15. 15
Research, Extension and Technology
● R&D: Need to shift from research focused on irrigated areas towards
research on crops and cropping systems in the dry lands, hills, tribal
and other marginal areas
● Private sector participation in extension need to be intensified
● Agriculture needs new technologies and integration of the full
technology toolbox from genetics all through the various parts of
chemistry
Classification: PUBLIC

16. 16
Harnessing Science
Synergies of frontier sciences
Agricultural research needs to leverage —nano-
technology, ICT, remote sensing; Geographic
Information System and GPS for improving
research efficiency, better targeting of
technologies and identifying production and
marketing environments
Power of biotechnology
Time tested 1st and 2nd generation
biotechnologies should be used to speed-up
breeding processes, reduce investment on
research for increasing yields, minimizing
production risks, sustaining environment and
meeting consumer preferences
Science part of transgenic research should be
continued and further strengthened
Classification: PUBLIC

17. 17
Syngenta Solution: Innovating across technologies to
transform the way crops are grown
Breeding
Native
traits
GM traits
Seed care
Crop
Protection
Nutrients,
water
Machinery
Grower’s needs
Technology
Weed
control
Insect
control
Disease
control
Nematode
control
Yield
potential
Nitrogen
efficiency
Drought Quality
traits
Labor
shortage
Post
harvest
Chemical solutions
Biological solutions
Classification: PUBLIC
Services

18. 18
Resource conservation
Full Potential of conservation
agriculture, zero tillage,
precision agriculture and
micro-irrigation for different
agro eco-regions needs to be
exploited
Efficient farming systems, composite farming,
INTEGRATED crop management, nutrient
management, pest management and water
management should be perfected further for
wider adaptability, integrated with public and
private sector programmes for holistic
development
Enhanced participation of
stakeholders and
increased agro ecological
literacy to be given priority
in managing resources
Classification: PUBLIC

19. 19
Agricultural diversification and the value chain
Meet demand for
high-value
commodities by
using research to
augment their
production more
efficiently,
competitively
Develop improved
genotypes
(varieties and
hybrids) and
agronomy for
raising
productivity in
different agro-eco-
regions
Give priority to
Consumer-
preferred quality
traits and food
safety
Since these are
perishables, R&D
focus needs be on
entire value-chain
from production
and postharvest
to value-addition,
processing and
marketing
Classification: PUBLIC

20. 20
Post-harvest and value-addition:
18 to 25% losses occur in supply-chain from production to consumption.
Three-pronged
strategy
needed to
reduce post-
harvest losses
Compress
supply chain
by linking
producers
and markets;
Promote
processing of
food
commodities in
production
catchments to
add value
before being
marketed
Small-scale
processing
chambers,
storages with
conventional
and non-
conventional
energy sources
Classification: PUBLIC

21. 21
Institutions and policies
● PPPs are essential
● Growing uncertainties call for policies and institutional mechanisms,
evolving decision-making processes, mobilizing political support and
improving governance of service providers
● Added challenge- intellectual property rights regime
● Effective, need-based institutions to accelerate innovations and link
farmers with different stakeholders
● Innovative institutional models, pro-agricultural policies and regulatory
mechanisms needed.
Classification: PUBLIC

22. 22 Classification: PUBLIC
Thank You!