Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture Area (Basilicata, Southern Italy), presented @KES IDT 2010, Baltimore, 28-30 July 2010. Work by Fabrizio Gizzi, Nicola Masini, Maria Danese, Cinzia Zotta, Maria Rosaria Potenza, Beniamino Murgante, Lucia Tilio

1. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through
Rough Set Theory:
application on Vulture area
(Basilicata, southern Italy)
Intelligent Decision Technologies
and Intelligent Interactive Multimedia Systems and Services 2010 International Conferences
Fabrizio Gizzi, Nicola Masini, Maria Rosaria Potenza, Cinzia Zotta
Archaeological and Monumental Heritage Institute, National Research Council
lucia.tilio@unibas.it
Lucia Tilio, Maria Danese, Beniamino Murgante
Laboratory of Urban and Territorial Systems, University of Basilicata

2. PLAN
Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area

3. Historical data on
Seismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works
Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
INCREASE
KNOWLEDGE
ABOUT
EARTHQUAKES
AND VULNERABLE
AREAS
HISTORICAL DATAHISTORICAL DATA
CONTRIBUTIONCONTRIBUTION

4. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
INCREASE
KNOWLEDGE
ABOUT
EARTHQUAKES
AND VULNERABLE
AREAS
HISTORICAL DATAHISTORICAL DATA
CONTRIBUTIONCONTRIBUTION
Historical data are
reliable?
BUT…BUT…
Historical data on
Seismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

5. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
How to assess reliability?
ROUGH SET
APPROACH!!
To tackle imprecise,
vague and uncertain
knowledge
Historical data on
Seismic events
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set

6. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
ContextofResearch
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case of
Vulture area
Further worksFurther works

7. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
ContextofResearch
Melfi
Rionero in Vulture
Rapolla
Ripacandida
San Fele
Macroseismic intensity
VIII – IX MCS
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case of
Vulture area
Further worksFurther works

8. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case of
Vulture area
Further worksFurther works

9. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
dossier cataloguing
usage: public, religious…
costs of reconstruction
works
duration of reconstruction
works
real estate values of
buildings
owners annual income
description of
reconstruction
interventions
damage classification according EMS
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case of
Vulture area
Further worksFurther works

10. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
dossier cataloguing
usage: public, religious…
costs of reconstruction
works
duration of reconstruction
works
real estate values of
buildings
owners annual income
description of
reconstruction
interventions
damage classification according EMS
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case of
Vulture area
Further worksFurther works
Which relationship
between damage and
reconstruction?

11. Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case of
Vulture area
Further worksFurther works
Laboratory of Intelligent
Decision Support Systems
Institute of
Computing Science
Poznan

12. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
costs of reconstruction
works
duration of reconstruction
works
description of
reconstruction
interventions
damage classification according EMS
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case of
Vulture area
Further worksFurther works

13. Building “x2”Building “x1”
After the earthquake, x1 and x2
present same characteristics
They are indiscernible
jiji xxxbxb ,)()( →=if are indiscernible
[ ] [ ] )()(
, BIndjBIndi xx
they belong to indiscernibility relation and they can be noted as:
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic data
and Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

14. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
# of
buildings
# of analysed
buildings
Quality of
classification
Number of
Atoms
Number of
Reducts
# Attributes in
Core
Melfi 2256 1190 0.4538 557 1 4
Rapolla 728 316 0.7057 235 1 7
Rionero 3373 1213 0.4361 585 1 4
Ripacandida 754 374 0.7406 279 1 7
San Fele 1200 175 0.7371 75 1 5
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic data
and Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

15. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
,UX ⊂Let us consider X, subset of U,
U
Set X
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic data
and Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

16. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
,UX ⊂Let us consider X, subset of U,
U
Set X
U
LOWER
APPROXIMATION
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic data
and Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

17. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
,UX ⊂Let us consider X, subset of U,
U
Set X
U U
UPPER
APPROXIMATION
LOWER
APPROXIMATION
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic data
and Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

18. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
# of
buildings
# of analysed
buildings
Quality of
classification
Number of
Atoms
Number of
Reducts
# Attributes in
Core
Melfi 2256 1190 0.4538 557 1 4
Rapolla 728 316 0.7057 235 1 7
Rionero 3373 1213 0.4361 585 1 4
Ripacandida 754 374 0.7406 279 1 7
San Fele 1200 175 0.7371 75 1 5
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic data
and Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

19. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
# of
buildings
# of analysed
buildings
Quality of
classification
Number of
Atoms
Number of
Reducts
# Attributes in
Core
Melfi 2256 1190 0.4538 557 1 4
Rapolla 728 316 0.7057 235 1 7
Rionero 3373 1213 0.4361 585 1 4
Ripacandida 754 374 0.7406 279 1 7
San Fele 1200 175 0.7371 75 1 5
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic data
and Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

20. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic data
and Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

21. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
DECISIONRULES
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic data
and Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

22. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
# of
Rules
# of Exact
Rules
# of Approximate
Rules
Melfi 299 207 63
Rapolla 111 99 12
Rionero 340 252 88
Ripacandida 99 89 10
San Fele 37 31 6
DECISIONRULES
Decision
Variable:
DAMAGE
classification
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic data
and Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

23. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic data
and Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

24. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
EXAMPLE: Rule 13
IF “impcont<3” AND “imprev<3” AND “valimm<4”…
THEN “danno_ems=d2”
EXAMPLE: Rule 40
IF “valimm<1” AND “intcopertu in [0, dem/ric]” AND
“scucicuci=si” AND “demsolai=0” AND “durlav<28”THEN
“danno_ems=d2”
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results and
discussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

25. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
INTERPRETATION
ONLY FOR
Rapolla,
Ripacandida
What does it mean
DISCREPANCY?
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results and
discussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

26. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results and
discussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works
INTERPRETATION

27. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
INTERPRETATION
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results and
discussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

28. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results and
discussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

29. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results and
discussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

30. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
# of
analysed
buildings
# of buildings
with rules
discrepancy
# of building with
damage overestimation
# of building with damage
underestimation
# # % # % # %
Rapolla 316 66 20% 49 15% 17 5%
Ripacandida 374 9 2% 2 05% 7 1,5%
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results and
discussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further worksFurther works

31. Assessing macroseismic data reliability through Rough Set Theory: application on Vulture area
Historical data onHistorical data on
Seismic eventsSeismic events
Macro seismic dataMacro seismic data
and Rough Setand Rough Set
Results andResults and
discussiondiscussion
The case ofThe case of
Vulture areaVulture area
Further works