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Arthur D. Little Automotive Report October 2018

In October 2018, new car registrations in Europe decreased by 7.4% compared to October 2017, with significant drops across various regions, particularly in the north-west and north-east. Notable brands like Jeep saw increases, while premium brands like BMW and Mercedes-Benz faced declines. Italy experienced a similar downturn, reflecting broader market trends influenced by the introduction of new EU testing regulations.

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Automotive Report Analysis of New Car Registrations in Europe and Italy October 2018
2 Analysis of New Car Registrations in Europe and Italy * EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland); ** Δ% October 2018 / October 2017 Executive Summary  Areas: Islands +2,8%, South -3,2%, Centre -3,8%, North-East -8,1% and North-West -12,1% in volume in October 2018 compared to October 2017  Customer segments: Fleet +1,7%, Retail -3,9% and Business -6,6% in volume in October 2018YTD compared to October 2017YTD  Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Jeep +76,6%,Volkswagen +11,6% and Citroen +7,0% in October 2018YTD compared to October 2017YTD  Premium brands: among the Top 15 by volume, BMW -4,0%, Mercedes-Benz -7,3% and Audi -8,9% in volume in October 2018YTD compared to October 2017YTD  Top 3 Countries by growth in new registrations: France -1,5%, UK -2,9% and Spain -6,6% in volume in October 2018 compared to October 2017  Top 3 Countries by market share: Germany 21,8% (+0,0 p.p.), UK 15,4% (-1,4 p.p.) and France 13,7% (+0,6 p.p.) in October 2018YTD compared to October 2017YTD  Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Dacia +13,4%, Peugeot +7,9% and Toyota +6,3% in October 2018YTD compared to October 2017YTD  Premium brands: BMW -0,4%, Mercedes-Benz -3,9% and Audi -9,1% in volume in October 2018YTD compared to October 2017YTD Europe* Italy -7,4%** -7,4%**
3 Agenda 1 Europe 1.1 Market Overview 1.2 New Car Registrations by Brand 2 Italy 3 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
4 Top 10 European Markets* – October 2018 vs October 2017 Europe – Market Overview Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis EU New Car Registrations 1.118.882 1.207.772 2018 2017 -7,4% ## #° ## Ranking on October 2018 data New Car Registrations in October 2018 Δ% Oct. 2018 / Oct. 2017 * EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) ** World Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure -7,4 4° 146.655 -7,8 10° 22.788 -6,6 6° 39.908 1° 252.628 -28,1 9° 23.088-17,5 8° 30.079 -15,2 7° 36.894 -6,6 5° 88.410 -1,5 2° 173.798 3° 153.599 -2,9 -7,4 Another strong decrease registered in October (-7%) follows the even stronger decrease registered in September (-23%) due to the introduction in September of the new EU testing scheme (WLTP**)
5 -20 20 10 0 -10 In October 2018, registrations of Passenger Cars in all European major markets suffered. Nonetheless, on aYTD basis only UK, Italy and Sweden registered a decrease both in terms of volume and Market Share Top 10 European Markets* – October 2018YTD Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis Europe – Market Overview Highlights Market Share # Country Oct. 2018 ∆ Vs 2017 1 Germany 21,8% 0,0% 2 UK 15,4% -1,4% 3 France 13,7% 0,6% 4 Italy 12,2% -0,6% 5 Spain 8,4% 0,7% 6 Belgium 3,7% 0,1% 7 Poland 3,3% 0,3% 8 Netherlands 2,9% 0,2% 9 Sweden 2,3% -0,1% 10 Austria 2,2% 0,0% 1,4 -7,2 -3,2 5,7 10,0 2,9 8,4 0,0 11,9 -2,3 Market Share ∆ % Volume Oct. 18/17 * EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) 20%10% New Car Registrations Oct. 2018 YTD
6 Top 15 – October 2018YTD Europe – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis ∆M.S. 18/17 0,05 0,01 -0,02 0,08 -0,06 -0,04 0,00 -0,09 -0,08 0,05 0,06 0,06 0,06 0,13 -0,12 0,05 Vol.'18 1.453.522 940.186 839.223 819.540 750.637 700.382 653.582 621.275 618.081 596.498 594.065 508.918 454.822 435.571 422.087 13.424.383 M.S.'18 11,1% 7,2% 6,4% 6,3% 5,8% 5,4% 5,0% 4,8% 4,7% 4,6% 4,6% 3,9% 3,5% 3,3% 3,2% 4,7 0,6 -1,6 7,9 -6,4 -3,9 -0,4 -9,1 -8,5 4,8 6,3 6,0 6,1 -11,8 1,5 13,4 ∆ % 18/17 Tot. * * Opel includes Vauxhall New Car Registrations
7 Agenda 1 Europe 2 Italy 2.1 Market Overview 2.2 Market Highlights 2.3 New Car Registrations by Brand 2.4 New Car Registrations by Group 2.5 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type 3 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
8 Italian Market –Variation of New Car Registrations 2018 vs 2017 Italy – Market Overview Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis; * World Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure ∆'17/'16 ∆'18/'17 For the second month in a row, a sharp impact on registrations has been caused by the introduction of the new EU testing scheme (WLTP*), which has slowed significantly registrations in all the EU countries since September, with a more pronounced effect on Diesel cars. In Italy, the slow down in registration had a notable horizontal impact on almost all segments, excluding C and F, and geographic areas, excluding the islands October 2018 JuneJanuary 6,8% February March 7,1% April May 15,8% July August -7,4% September 12,9% October November 8,2% December 5,9% 10,1% 3,4% 6,2% -1,4% -4,6% 18,2% -5,8% 6,5% -2,8% -7,3% 4,4% 9,5% 8,1% -25,4% -3,2%
9 7,3 5,3 5,1 4,1 -2,5 -4,7 -4,9 -20,4 -20,7 -28,2 Italian Market – October 2018 vs October 2017 Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – Market Overview 2015 2014 Δ% October 2018 / October 2017 146.655 158.417 -7,4% 2017 2018 -12,1 North-West 46.303 +2,8 Islands 8.527 -8,1 North-East 42.583 -3,8 Centre 32.813 -3,2 South 16.428 ## aa ## Region New Car Registrations in October 2018 Δ% Oct. 2018 / Oct. 2017 Growth of the Top 10 brands by volumes 6
10 Diesel 52,4% Petrol 34,3% LPG 6,5% CNG* 2,1% EV* 4,7% Other 13,2% Italian Market – October 2018YTD vs October 2017YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – Market Highlights Analysis by “Customer Segment” Analysis by “Fuel Type” Analysis by “Geographical Area” Analysis by “Car Segment” 912.575 386.719 339.069 949.734 380.132 362.901 FleetRetail Business 2017 -3,9% 1,7% -6,6%∆'18/'17 506.316 541.715 334.833 169.984 85.516 548.884 551.083 338.916 168.380 85.504 SouthCentreNorth-EastNorth-West Islands 250.799 1.638.364 602.140 544.414 206.623 29.548 4.840 B TotalDA C FE -12,4% -3,1% 1,8% -3,0% -10,2% 9,8%-7,8% -1,7% -1,2% 1,0% 0,0% 2018 2017 ∆'18/'17 ∆'18/'17 2018 2017 -10,5 +36,5 +28,0 -3,1 +4,1 ∆% Volume Oct. 2018 / Oct. 2017 (YTD) * CNG: Compressed Natural Gas (Methane and Ethanol); EV: Electric Vehicle (Hybrid and Electric) 1.638.364 1.692.767 2017 2018 -3,2
11 New Car Registrations by Brand – October 2018YTD (1/3) Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis 282.540 137.978 112.796 108.105 92.503 82.299 75.038 71.655 70.795 53.476 51.594 49.843 49.067 48.362 45.347 -20,3 11,6 -2,3 -4,4 4,3 -6,2 3,2 7,0 -8,9 -7,3 0,9 -4,0 -10,9 -6,5 76,6 Volume ∆Volume 18/17 % ∆ M.S. 18/17 % Market Share % -3,69 1,12 0,06 -0,08 0,41 -0,16 0,28 0,42 1,95 -0,21 -0,14 0,12 -0,03 -0,26 -0,10 17,25 8,42 6,88 6,60 5,65 5,02 4,58 4,37 4,32 3,26 3,15 3,04 2,99 2,95 2,77
12 New Car Registrations by Brand – October 2018YTD (2/3) Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis 41.665 39.738 39.338 27.297 21.608 21.578 17.376 17.355 15.525 14.923 9.260 7.815 7.603 4.743 4.735 2,1 -25,4 2,4 3,5 10,0 -5,7 -14,3 16,9 10,7 -7,2 4,2 -9,7 0,6 72,8 50,1 Volume ∆Volume 18/17 % ∆ M.S. 18/17 % Market Share % 0,13 -0,72 0,13 0,11 0,16 -0,03 -0,14 0,18 0,12 -0,04 0,05 0,21 -0,04 0,01 0,10 2,54 2,43 2,40 1,67 1,32 1,32 1,06 1,06 0,95 0,91 0,57 0,48 0,46 0,29 0,29
13 New Car Registrations by Brand – October 2018YTD (3/3) Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis 3.108 2.845 2.407 2.236 2.098 1.145 697 520 377 366 185 53 39 23 2 1,9 14,4 -6,0 -6,9 10,3 -69,8 -6,9 16,2 58,1 76,7 -18,8 -28,1 100,0 217,2 189,2 Volume ∆Volume 18/17 % ∆ M.S. 18/17 % Market Share % 0,01 0,02 0,00 0,00 0,02 0,05 -0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,19 0,17 0,15 0,14 0,13 0,07 0,04 0,03 0,02 0,02 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 New Car Registrations by Group – Top 15 – October 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Group 26,6 15,2 14,1 9,6 6,9 5,3 4,8 4,5 4,1 3,0 1,7 1,4 1,0 0,6 0,5 Top 5: 72,3% Top 10: 93,9% 38,9% 10,7% -11,0% -2,3% 6,3% -2,8% -6,8% 3,2% -2,6% -6,9% -12,8% 3,5% 10,4% 4,2% -9,7% 435.184 248.693 230.602 157.948 112.796 87.012 78.146 73.172 66.443 48.882 27.297 22738 15.525 9.260 7.603 FCA PSA Volkswagen Renault Ford Hyundai Toyota Daimler BMW Nissan Suzuki JLR Volvo Mazda Honda Market Share (%) DeltaVolume '18 vs '17 VolumeGroup Brand
15 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – Petrol and Diesel Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type                                         DieselPetrol October 2018 2018YTD  Ranking variation compared to previous period 9.559 2.843 2.187 2.184 2.169 1.909 1.634 1.608 1.572 1.503 70.635 27.078 27.066 20.008 16.455 15.992 13.685 13.499 13.278 11.572 30.275 30.179 26.494 24.510 24.057 22.968 22.700 19.322 19.100 18.881 1.899 1.882 1.842 1.614 1.577 1.546 1.504 1.361 1.335 1.301 QASHQAI 3008 RENEGADE TIGUAN COMPASS CLIO 500X PANDA KUGA FIESTA PANDA 500 YPSILON POLO FIESTA C3 CLIO 208 FORTWO AYGO 500X COMPASS RENEGADE CLIO TIPO TIGUAN QASHQAI 3008 FIESTA 500L PANDA YPSILON 500 POLO C3 KARL ECOSPORT 208 FIESTA FORTWO
16 1.454 1.131 1.010 770 723 723 584 398 362 357 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – LPG and CNG Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis                     CNGLPG October 2018 2018YTD                     Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type  Ranking variation compared to previous period 9.211 8.804 7.807 6.351 6.148 5.860 5.622 5.263 4.448 3.977 7.351 5.792 4.109 2.882 2.297 2.294 1.691 1.270 1.009 863 465 204 118 108 70 65 51 24 15 14 YPSILON PANDA SANDERO CORSA CLIO DUSTER MOKKA 500 PICANTO 110 PANDA YPSILON CORSA CLIO C3 500X TIPO SANDERO KARL 500L GOLF POLO PANDA UP! PUNTO OCTAVIA IBIZA QUBO LEON ASTRA PANDA UP! ASTRA PUNTO POLO QUBO YPSILON Mil GOLF IBIZA
17 Overview of New Car Registrations by Segment Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment Segments Growth in Market Share* Market Share andVolume** -1,6% 0,0% D «Executive» 0,0% B «Supermini» -0,1% E «Luxury» +1,6% C «Medium» 0,0% F «Ultra Luxury» 15,3% 33,2% 12,6% E A 36,8%B C D 1,8% 0,3%F 100,0%Tot. 250.799 602.140 544.414 206.623 29.548 4.840 1.638.364 A «Utility/City» * Δ% October 2018 YTD / October 2017 YTD; ** Market Share and Volume October 2018 YTD
18 Segment A and Segment B – Top 10 – October 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment A “Utility/City” B “Supermini” 101.352 35.784 15.975 14.193 14.186 11.572 9.808 8.949 7.742 7.652 AYGOPANDA KARL 110FORTWO500 UP! PICANTO IGNIS TWINGO 44.546 39.736 36.052 35.557 35.442 33.547 31.597 28.723 24.744 23.378 CLIO 208FIESTA YARISYPSILON C3 POLO 500L CAPTUR SANDERO ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD SegmentA registered another strong decrease in October 2018 (-12,4% in respect to October 2017YTD) mainly driven by FIAT’s volumes drop. Segment B also decreased, although with a slight drop (-3,3% in respect to October 2017YTD) -20,5% -25,5% 70,4% 7,3% -9,2% 1,4% -24,3% 27,8% -1,3% 4,8% -3,2% -25,4% -13,4% 0,3% 0,4% 9,5% -23,2% -9,1% 1,0% -3,1%
19 Segment C and Segment D –Top 10 – October 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment C “Medium” D “Executive” 43.709 37.112 34.883 32.718 30.585 25.885 24.516 22.466 20.953 16.128 DUSTER500X RENEGADE QASHQAITIPO GOLFCOMPASS ECOSPORT 3008 C-HR 25.776 15.061 11.441 10.299 7.839 7.127 7.105 6.958 6.531 6.341 OCTAVIATIGUAN KUGA Q3STELVIO XI A4 GLA RAV4 Q5 ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD 12,1% -26,7% 10,6% 570,9% -13,1% -5,1% 49,6% 11,3% 50,7% 10,5% 3,5% -2,1% 95,4% -4,4% -20,7% -12,6% 0,7% -16,7% -1,1% 5,3% Segment C is the only non-luxury segment that registered an increase in October (+1,7% vs October 2017YTD), whereas Segment D decreased by -3,0% on aYTD basis
20 Segment E and Segment F –Top 10 – October 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment E “Luxury” F “Ultra Luxury” 956 811 520 327 306 216 215 208 169 161 A8GHIBLI F-TYPEMODEL S911 PANAMERA S-CLASS 7 SERIES 488 MODEL X ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD 12,8% -19,9% -16,2% -15,8% -27,6% -15,0% -2,4% -3,5% -23,0% -19,2% 20,6% 7,0% 17,1% -14,4% -8,1% -4,4% 31,9% 92,6% 15,8% -10,1% 4.404 3.894 2.916 2.414 2.176 1.385 1.314 1.175 1.142 1.051 X55 SERIES E-CLASS RANGE SPORT A6 XC90F-PACE GLELEVANTE GRAND CHEROKEE Segment E registered a broad range decrease in October 2018 (-10,2% in respect to October 2017YTD) which impacted on almost all Top 10 models of the segment Segment F is the only segment which almost registered a double digit growth throughout the year (+9,7% on aYTD basis)
21 Agenda 1 Europe 2 Italy 3 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
22 New Car Registrations of Hybrid vs Pure ElectricVehicles Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy 22.430 32.622 56.332 76.886 20162015 2017 2018 EV Registrations Trend Volume, DeltaYoY, EV Market Share Oct. '18YTD Hybrid and Pure ElectricVehicles Trend Volume Oct. '18YTD Delta YoY 21,1% 45,4% 72,7% 36,5% M.S. 1,7% 2,1% 3,3% 4,7% CAGR 94,6% 2,9% 5,6% 5,4% 3,3% 94,4% 2015 96,7% 2016 97,1% 2017 2018 Electric Hybrid +48,4% +50,9%
23 Pure Electric Vehicles Top 5 Hybrid and Pure ElectricVehicles – October 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy 1.268 907 816 216 161 MODEL XLEAF FORTWO ZOE MODEL S 23.765 15.602 6.404 6.209 3.472 AURISYARIS RAV4C-HR NIRO Hybrid Vehicles  While traditional vehicles continue to register a negative growth (significant negative growth for Diesel and just moderate growth for Petrol), hybrids sales increased steadily in October reaching +33% vs 2017 on aYTD basis  Pure Electric vehicles continue to show strong increases on a YoY basis (+36%)
24 Agenda 1 Europe 2 Italy 3 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
25 New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (1/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec A B C D F Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated Giulietta A7 SportbackA6 (P) X5i8 Roadster 2 Series Active & Gran TourerM3 Z4 (P)X4 DS7 Crossback Duster (P) M5 Q3 (P) RS5 Sportback (P) C5 Aircross (P) Q8 (P) A1 (P) DS3 Crossback (P) 8Series (P) C4 (P) Berlingo (P) E-tron (P) S8 (P) Portofino 500X
26 New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (2/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec F G H I J K Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated (P) Fiesta ST (P) Mustang Focus (P) Tourneo Custom Jazz NSX Roadster (P) HR-VCR-V i30 Fastback Santa Fe i20 H1 Tucson i40 I-Pace Renegade Cee’d (P) Cherokee Wrangler Sportage Niro EV (P) QX50 Edge
27 New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (3/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec L M Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated (P) Urus Range Rover Sport Hybrid Aventador SVJ (P) Aventador S Roadster Huracan Spyder Performante (P) Discovery SVX (P) LS (P) RX L 2 CX-3 CX-5 6 MX-5 Ghibli Quattroporte 3 (P) AMG GT4 G-Class C-Class CLS Mini (P)
28 Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (4/5) New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec M N O P R S (P) Juke ASX 508 (P) Eclipse cross Outlander Outlander PHEV Leaf Insigna GSi 508 SW (P) Cayman GT4 (P) 911 GT3 RS (P) 992 (P) Macan 911 Carrera T Megan RS Leon Cupra R Ateca Cupra (P) Tarraco (P) Kodiaq sportline Fabia
29 New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (5/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S T V Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated (P) Tivoli Actyon Sports (P) Smart Electric Drive Levorg JimnySwift SportVitara Land Cruiser Supra (P) XC40 S60 Touareg (P) Passat T-Cross (P)

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Arthur D. Little Automotive Report October 2018

  • 1.
    Automotive Report Analysis ofNew Car Registrations in Europe and Italy October 2018
  • 2.
    2 Analysis of NewCar Registrations in Europe and Italy * EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland); ** Δ% October 2018 / October 2017 Executive Summary  Areas: Islands +2,8%, South -3,2%, Centre -3,8%, North-East -8,1% and North-West -12,1% in volume in October 2018 compared to October 2017  Customer segments: Fleet +1,7%, Retail -3,9% and Business -6,6% in volume in October 2018YTD compared to October 2017YTD  Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Jeep +76,6%,Volkswagen +11,6% and Citroen +7,0% in October 2018YTD compared to October 2017YTD  Premium brands: among the Top 15 by volume, BMW -4,0%, Mercedes-Benz -7,3% and Audi -8,9% in volume in October 2018YTD compared to October 2017YTD  Top 3 Countries by growth in new registrations: France -1,5%, UK -2,9% and Spain -6,6% in volume in October 2018 compared to October 2017  Top 3 Countries by market share: Germany 21,8% (+0,0 p.p.), UK 15,4% (-1,4 p.p.) and France 13,7% (+0,6 p.p.) in October 2018YTD compared to October 2017YTD  Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Dacia +13,4%, Peugeot +7,9% and Toyota +6,3% in October 2018YTD compared to October 2017YTD  Premium brands: BMW -0,4%, Mercedes-Benz -3,9% and Audi -9,1% in volume in October 2018YTD compared to October 2017YTD Europe* Italy -7,4%** -7,4%**
  • 3.
    3 Agenda 1 Europe 1.1 MarketOverview 1.2 New Car Registrations by Brand 2 Italy 3 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
  • 4.
    4 Top 10 EuropeanMarkets* – October 2018 vs October 2017 Europe – Market Overview Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis EU New Car Registrations 1.118.882 1.207.772 2018 2017 -7,4% ## #° ## Ranking on October 2018 data New Car Registrations in October 2018 Δ% Oct. 2018 / Oct. 2017 * EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) ** World Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure -7,4 4° 146.655 -7,8 10° 22.788 -6,6 6° 39.908 1° 252.628 -28,1 9° 23.088-17,5 8° 30.079 -15,2 7° 36.894 -6,6 5° 88.410 -1,5 2° 173.798 3° 153.599 -2,9 -7,4 Another strong decrease registered in October (-7%) follows the even stronger decrease registered in September (-23%) due to the introduction in September of the new EU testing scheme (WLTP**)
  • 5.
    5 -20 20 10 0 -10 In October 2018,registrations of Passenger Cars in all European major markets suffered. Nonetheless, on aYTD basis only UK, Italy and Sweden registered a decrease both in terms of volume and Market Share Top 10 European Markets* – October 2018YTD Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis Europe – Market Overview Highlights Market Share # Country Oct. 2018 ∆ Vs 2017 1 Germany 21,8% 0,0% 2 UK 15,4% -1,4% 3 France 13,7% 0,6% 4 Italy 12,2% -0,6% 5 Spain 8,4% 0,7% 6 Belgium 3,7% 0,1% 7 Poland 3,3% 0,3% 8 Netherlands 2,9% 0,2% 9 Sweden 2,3% -0,1% 10 Austria 2,2% 0,0% 1,4 -7,2 -3,2 5,7 10,0 2,9 8,4 0,0 11,9 -2,3 Market Share ∆ % Volume Oct. 18/17 * EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) 20%10% New Car Registrations Oct. 2018 YTD
  • 6.
    6 Top 15 –October 2018YTD Europe – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis ∆M.S. 18/17 0,05 0,01 -0,02 0,08 -0,06 -0,04 0,00 -0,09 -0,08 0,05 0,06 0,06 0,06 0,13 -0,12 0,05 Vol.'18 1.453.522 940.186 839.223 819.540 750.637 700.382 653.582 621.275 618.081 596.498 594.065 508.918 454.822 435.571 422.087 13.424.383 M.S.'18 11,1% 7,2% 6,4% 6,3% 5,8% 5,4% 5,0% 4,8% 4,7% 4,6% 4,6% 3,9% 3,5% 3,3% 3,2% 4,7 0,6 -1,6 7,9 -6,4 -3,9 -0,4 -9,1 -8,5 4,8 6,3 6,0 6,1 -11,8 1,5 13,4 ∆ % 18/17 Tot. * * Opel includes Vauxhall New Car Registrations
  • 7.
    7 Agenda 1 Europe 2 Italy 2.1Market Overview 2.2 Market Highlights 2.3 New Car Registrations by Brand 2.4 New Car Registrations by Group 2.5 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type 3 Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
  • 8.
    8 Italian Market –Variationof New Car Registrations 2018 vs 2017 Italy – Market Overview Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis; * World Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure ∆'17/'16 ∆'18/'17 For the second month in a row, a sharp impact on registrations has been caused by the introduction of the new EU testing scheme (WLTP*), which has slowed significantly registrations in all the EU countries since September, with a more pronounced effect on Diesel cars. In Italy, the slow down in registration had a notable horizontal impact on almost all segments, excluding C and F, and geographic areas, excluding the islands October 2018 JuneJanuary 6,8% February March 7,1% April May 15,8% July August -7,4% September 12,9% October November 8,2% December 5,9% 10,1% 3,4% 6,2% -1,4% -4,6% 18,2% -5,8% 6,5% -2,8% -7,3% 4,4% 9,5% 8,1% -25,4% -3,2%
  • 9.
    9 7,3 5,3 5,1 4,1 -2,5 -4,7 -4,9 -20,4 -20,7 -28,2 Italian Market –October 2018 vs October 2017 Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – Market Overview 2015 2014 Δ% October 2018 / October 2017 146.655 158.417 -7,4% 2017 2018 -12,1 North-West 46.303 +2,8 Islands 8.527 -8,1 North-East 42.583 -3,8 Centre 32.813 -3,2 South 16.428 ## aa ## Region New Car Registrations in October 2018 Δ% Oct. 2018 / Oct. 2017 Growth of the Top 10 brands by volumes 6
  • 10.
    10 Diesel 52,4% Petrol 34,3% LPG 6,5% CNG* 2,1% EV* 4,7% Other 13,2% Italian Market– October 2018YTD vs October 2017YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – Market Highlights Analysis by “Customer Segment” Analysis by “Fuel Type” Analysis by “Geographical Area” Analysis by “Car Segment” 912.575 386.719 339.069 949.734 380.132 362.901 FleetRetail Business 2017 -3,9% 1,7% -6,6%∆'18/'17 506.316 541.715 334.833 169.984 85.516 548.884 551.083 338.916 168.380 85.504 SouthCentreNorth-EastNorth-West Islands 250.799 1.638.364 602.140 544.414 206.623 29.548 4.840 B TotalDA C FE -12,4% -3,1% 1,8% -3,0% -10,2% 9,8%-7,8% -1,7% -1,2% 1,0% 0,0% 2018 2017 ∆'18/'17 ∆'18/'17 2018 2017 -10,5 +36,5 +28,0 -3,1 +4,1 ∆% Volume Oct. 2018 / Oct. 2017 (YTD) * CNG: Compressed Natural Gas (Methane and Ethanol); EV: Electric Vehicle (Hybrid and Electric) 1.638.364 1.692.767 2017 2018 -3,2
  • 11.
    11 New Car Registrationsby Brand – October 2018YTD (1/3) Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis 282.540 137.978 112.796 108.105 92.503 82.299 75.038 71.655 70.795 53.476 51.594 49.843 49.067 48.362 45.347 -20,3 11,6 -2,3 -4,4 4,3 -6,2 3,2 7,0 -8,9 -7,3 0,9 -4,0 -10,9 -6,5 76,6 Volume ∆Volume 18/17 % ∆ M.S. 18/17 % Market Share % -3,69 1,12 0,06 -0,08 0,41 -0,16 0,28 0,42 1,95 -0,21 -0,14 0,12 -0,03 -0,26 -0,10 17,25 8,42 6,88 6,60 5,65 5,02 4,58 4,37 4,32 3,26 3,15 3,04 2,99 2,95 2,77
  • 12.
    12 New Car Registrationsby Brand – October 2018YTD (2/3) Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis 41.665 39.738 39.338 27.297 21.608 21.578 17.376 17.355 15.525 14.923 9.260 7.815 7.603 4.743 4.735 2,1 -25,4 2,4 3,5 10,0 -5,7 -14,3 16,9 10,7 -7,2 4,2 -9,7 0,6 72,8 50,1 Volume ∆Volume 18/17 % ∆ M.S. 18/17 % Market Share % 0,13 -0,72 0,13 0,11 0,16 -0,03 -0,14 0,18 0,12 -0,04 0,05 0,21 -0,04 0,01 0,10 2,54 2,43 2,40 1,67 1,32 1,32 1,06 1,06 0,95 0,91 0,57 0,48 0,46 0,29 0,29
  • 13.
    13 New Car Registrationsby Brand – October 2018YTD (3/3) Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis 3.108 2.845 2.407 2.236 2.098 1.145 697 520 377 366 185 53 39 23 2 1,9 14,4 -6,0 -6,9 10,3 -69,8 -6,9 16,2 58,1 76,7 -18,8 -28,1 100,0 217,2 189,2 Volume ∆Volume 18/17 % ∆ M.S. 18/17 % Market Share % 0,01 0,02 0,00 0,00 0,02 0,05 -0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,19 0,17 0,15 0,14 0,13 0,07 0,04 0,03 0,02 0,02 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
  • 14.
    14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 New Car Registrationsby Group – Top 15 – October 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Group 26,6 15,2 14,1 9,6 6,9 5,3 4,8 4,5 4,1 3,0 1,7 1,4 1,0 0,6 0,5 Top 5: 72,3% Top 10: 93,9% 38,9% 10,7% -11,0% -2,3% 6,3% -2,8% -6,8% 3,2% -2,6% -6,9% -12,8% 3,5% 10,4% 4,2% -9,7% 435.184 248.693 230.602 157.948 112.796 87.012 78.146 73.172 66.443 48.882 27.297 22738 15.525 9.260 7.603 FCA PSA Volkswagen Renault Ford Hyundai Toyota Daimler BMW Nissan Suzuki JLR Volvo Mazda Honda Market Share (%) DeltaVolume '18 vs '17 VolumeGroup Brand
  • 15.
    15 New Car Registrationsby Fuel Type –Top 10 – Petrol and Diesel Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type                                         DieselPetrol October 2018 2018YTD  Ranking variation compared to previous period 9.559 2.843 2.187 2.184 2.169 1.909 1.634 1.608 1.572 1.503 70.635 27.078 27.066 20.008 16.455 15.992 13.685 13.499 13.278 11.572 30.275 30.179 26.494 24.510 24.057 22.968 22.700 19.322 19.100 18.881 1.899 1.882 1.842 1.614 1.577 1.546 1.504 1.361 1.335 1.301 QASHQAI 3008 RENEGADE TIGUAN COMPASS CLIO 500X PANDA KUGA FIESTA PANDA 500 YPSILON POLO FIESTA C3 CLIO 208 FORTWO AYGO 500X COMPASS RENEGADE CLIO TIPO TIGUAN QASHQAI 3008 FIESTA 500L PANDA YPSILON 500 POLO C3 KARL ECOSPORT 208 FIESTA FORTWO
  • 16.
    16 1.454 1.131 1.010 770 723 723 584 398 362 357 New Car Registrationsby Fuel Type –Top 10 – LPG and CNG Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis                     CNGLPG October 2018 2018YTD                     Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type  Ranking variation compared to previous period 9.211 8.804 7.807 6.351 6.148 5.860 5.622 5.263 4.448 3.977 7.351 5.792 4.109 2.882 2.297 2.294 1.691 1.270 1.009 863 465 204 118 108 70 65 51 24 15 14 YPSILON PANDA SANDERO CORSA CLIO DUSTER MOKKA 500 PICANTO 110 PANDA YPSILON CORSA CLIO C3 500X TIPO SANDERO KARL 500L GOLF POLO PANDA UP! PUNTO OCTAVIA IBIZA QUBO LEON ASTRA PANDA UP! ASTRA PUNTO POLO QUBO YPSILON Mil GOLF IBIZA
  • 17.
    17 Overview of NewCar Registrations by Segment Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment Segments Growth in Market Share* Market Share andVolume** -1,6% 0,0% D «Executive» 0,0% B «Supermini» -0,1% E «Luxury» +1,6% C «Medium» 0,0% F «Ultra Luxury» 15,3% 33,2% 12,6% E A 36,8%B C D 1,8% 0,3%F 100,0%Tot. 250.799 602.140 544.414 206.623 29.548 4.840 1.638.364 A «Utility/City» * Δ% October 2018 YTD / October 2017 YTD; ** Market Share and Volume October 2018 YTD
  • 18.
    18 Segment A andSegment B – Top 10 – October 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment A “Utility/City” B “Supermini” 101.352 35.784 15.975 14.193 14.186 11.572 9.808 8.949 7.742 7.652 AYGOPANDA KARL 110FORTWO500 UP! PICANTO IGNIS TWINGO 44.546 39.736 36.052 35.557 35.442 33.547 31.597 28.723 24.744 23.378 CLIO 208FIESTA YARISYPSILON C3 POLO 500L CAPTUR SANDERO ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD SegmentA registered another strong decrease in October 2018 (-12,4% in respect to October 2017YTD) mainly driven by FIAT’s volumes drop. Segment B also decreased, although with a slight drop (-3,3% in respect to October 2017YTD) -20,5% -25,5% 70,4% 7,3% -9,2% 1,4% -24,3% 27,8% -1,3% 4,8% -3,2% -25,4% -13,4% 0,3% 0,4% 9,5% -23,2% -9,1% 1,0% -3,1%
  • 19.
    19 Segment C andSegment D –Top 10 – October 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment C “Medium” D “Executive” 43.709 37.112 34.883 32.718 30.585 25.885 24.516 22.466 20.953 16.128 DUSTER500X RENEGADE QASHQAITIPO GOLFCOMPASS ECOSPORT 3008 C-HR 25.776 15.061 11.441 10.299 7.839 7.127 7.105 6.958 6.531 6.341 OCTAVIATIGUAN KUGA Q3STELVIO XI A4 GLA RAV4 Q5 ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD 12,1% -26,7% 10,6% 570,9% -13,1% -5,1% 49,6% 11,3% 50,7% 10,5% 3,5% -2,1% 95,4% -4,4% -20,7% -12,6% 0,7% -16,7% -1,1% 5,3% Segment C is the only non-luxury segment that registered an increase in October (+1,7% vs October 2017YTD), whereas Segment D decreased by -3,0% on aYTD basis
  • 20.
    20 Segment E andSegment F –Top 10 – October 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment E “Luxury” F “Ultra Luxury” 956 811 520 327 306 216 215 208 169 161 A8GHIBLI F-TYPEMODEL S911 PANAMERA S-CLASS 7 SERIES 488 MODEL X ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD ∆ Vol. % 18/17 YTD 12,8% -19,9% -16,2% -15,8% -27,6% -15,0% -2,4% -3,5% -23,0% -19,2% 20,6% 7,0% 17,1% -14,4% -8,1% -4,4% 31,9% 92,6% 15,8% -10,1% 4.404 3.894 2.916 2.414 2.176 1.385 1.314 1.175 1.142 1.051 X55 SERIES E-CLASS RANGE SPORT A6 XC90F-PACE GLELEVANTE GRAND CHEROKEE Segment E registered a broad range decrease in October 2018 (-10,2% in respect to October 2017YTD) which impacted on almost all Top 10 models of the segment Segment F is the only segment which almost registered a double digit growth throughout the year (+9,7% on aYTD basis)
  • 21.
    21 Agenda 1 Europe 2 Italy 3Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
  • 22.
    22 New Car Registrationsof Hybrid vs Pure ElectricVehicles Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy 22.430 32.622 56.332 76.886 20162015 2017 2018 EV Registrations Trend Volume, DeltaYoY, EV Market Share Oct. '18YTD Hybrid and Pure ElectricVehicles Trend Volume Oct. '18YTD Delta YoY 21,1% 45,4% 72,7% 36,5% M.S. 1,7% 2,1% 3,3% 4,7% CAGR 94,6% 2,9% 5,6% 5,4% 3,3% 94,4% 2015 96,7% 2016 97,1% 2017 2018 Electric Hybrid +48,4% +50,9%
  • 23.
    23 Pure Electric Vehicles Top 5 Hybridand Pure ElectricVehicles – October 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy 1.268 907 816 216 161 MODEL XLEAF FORTWO ZOE MODEL S 23.765 15.602 6.404 6.209 3.472 AURISYARIS RAV4C-HR NIRO Hybrid Vehicles  While traditional vehicles continue to register a negative growth (significant negative growth for Diesel and just moderate growth for Petrol), hybrids sales increased steadily in October reaching +33% vs 2017 on aYTD basis  Pure Electric vehicles continue to show strong increases on a YoY basis (+36%)
  • 24.
    24 Agenda 1 Europe 2 Italy 3Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 4 New Car Models Launches in Italy
  • 25.
    25 New Models Launchper Brand – Roadmap 2018 (1/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec A B C D F Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated Giulietta A7 SportbackA6 (P) X5i8 Roadster 2 Series Active & Gran TourerM3 Z4 (P)X4 DS7 Crossback Duster (P) M5 Q3 (P) RS5 Sportback (P) C5 Aircross (P) Q8 (P) A1 (P) DS3 Crossback (P) 8Series (P) C4 (P) Berlingo (P) E-tron (P) S8 (P) Portofino 500X
  • 26.
    26 New Models Launchper Brand – Roadmap 2018 (2/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec F G H I J K Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated (P) Fiesta ST (P) Mustang Focus (P) Tourneo Custom Jazz NSX Roadster (P) HR-VCR-V i30 Fastback Santa Fe i20 H1 Tucson i40 I-Pace Renegade Cee’d (P) Cherokee Wrangler Sportage Niro EV (P) QX50 Edge
  • 27.
    27 New Models Launchper Brand – Roadmap 2018 (3/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec L M Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated (P) Urus Range Rover Sport Hybrid Aventador SVJ (P) Aventador S Roadster Huracan Spyder Performante (P) Discovery SVX (P) LS (P) RX L 2 CX-3 CX-5 6 MX-5 Ghibli Quattroporte 3 (P) AMG GT4 G-Class C-Class CLS Mini (P)
  • 28.
    28 Source: Quattroruote; ArthurD. Little Analysis Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2018 (4/5) New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec M N O P R S (P) Juke ASX 508 (P) Eclipse cross Outlander Outlander PHEV Leaf Insigna GSi 508 SW (P) Cayman GT4 (P) 911 GT3 RS (P) 992 (P) Macan 911 Carrera T Megan RS Leon Cupra R Ateca Cupra (P) Tarraco (P) Kodiaq sportline Fabia
  • 29.
    29 New Models Launchper Brand – Roadmap 2018 (5/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S T V Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated (P) Tivoli Actyon Sports (P) Smart Electric Drive Levorg JimnySwift SportVitara Land Cruiser Supra (P) XC40 S60 Touareg (P) Passat T-Cross (P)