The document discusses changes in humanitarian action over the last 10 years and trends to expect in the next 10 years. It notes that humanitarian assistance funding has increased while attacks on aid workers have also risen. Three major trends are identified: (1) humanitarian assistance is increasing but trust in humanitarianism is decreasing; (2) respect for universal principles is declining while nationalism and sovereignty are rising; (3) conflict-related crises are declining relatively while natural disasters are increasing. The importance of humanitarian principles is emphasized amid these challenges facing humanitarian action.

1. Civ-mil and the future of Humanitarian
Action
•
• What has changed in
the last ten years
• What can we expect in
the next ten years
•

2. Follow the money
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2
Non-DAC donors DAC donors

3. Conflict Rules!
12 90%
79.5% 81.4%
77.1% 77.3% 76.2% 75.3% 74.5% 80%
10
US$ billion (constant 2008 prices)
65.3% 70%
59.2% 60.5%
8 60%
47.1%
50%
6
40%
4 30%
20%
2
10%
0 0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total humanitarian aid to conflict-affected countries
Total humanitarian aid to non-conflict countries
Total country-allocable humanitarian aid
Total ODA to conflict affected states as a share of total country-allocable ODA
Source: Development Initiatives 2011 from OECD DAC data

4. Limbo or Purgatory?

5. Attacks relative to aid worker
population in the field
Global attack rates per 10,000
10
8
6
4
2
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Stoddard et al. 2009

6. Haiti

7. Pakistan: 2005 earthquake

8. Pakistan: conflict displacement

9. Pakistan: floods

10. Afghanistan
Afghanistan

11. …some are giving “Humanitarian” a
bad name
While the humanitarians are….

12. …in their fortified aid compounds

13. Where do we go from here?

14. 3 mega trends…
• Humanitarian assistance is
up, humanitarianism is down.
• Universalism is
down, sovereignty/nationalism is up
• Conflict is down, “natural” disasters are
up

15. The importance of principles