1. 1st Australian Task Force in Vietnam:
Lessons from a counterinsurgency
campaign
Military Operations Analysis Team - Australian Centre for the Study of Armed Conflict and Society
Bob Hall,
Andrew Ross,
Satish Chand,
Amy Griffin,
Derrill de Heer; and
Barry Smith

2. Counterinsurgency involves ...
... the intersection of military action (combat and non-
combat), politics, economics and social reform to
• build security,
• build political legitimacy,
• build the economy and personal wealth,
• remove social friction.
None of this is new. It was done in Vietnam.
There is a vast amount of (publicly available) data in the
Vietnam records ... and in the insurgent’s histories.

3. Databases
Vietnam Combat Database
•4500 1ATF combat incidents x 30 bits of
info
Vietnam Intelligence Database
•36,000 intelligence incidents x 6 bits of info
Vietnam Village Database
•150 hamlets x 80 bits of info
Vietnam Civic Action Projects Database
•Currently 430 projects x 25 bits of info and
growing

4. ... and more Databases under construction
Phuoc Tuy Economy Database
•PSA and Australian Embassy reports
Political Events Database
•Australian and US Embassy files
Social Development Database
•PSA and Australian Embassy reports
•Pacification Attitude Analysis System reports

5. Using these databases we apply...
• Statistical techniques,
• Spatial analysis,
• Temporal analysis ...

6. 1ATF contacts and associated casualties
900
1ATF arrives in Phuoc Tuy,
May ’66. Battle of Long Tan,
Number of contacts and casualties
800
700 Aug ‘66
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Mar-63
Mar-64
Mar-65
Mar-66
Mar-67
Dec-62
Dec-63
Dec-64
Dec-65
Dec-66
Jun-62
Sep-62
Jun-63
Sep-63
Jun-64
Sep-64
Jun-65
Sep-65
Jun-66
Sep-66
Jun-67
Quarter year
Number of contacts 1ATF casualties Enemy Casualties

7. Number of contacts and casualties
0
100
200
300
400
600
700
800
900
500
Jun-62
Sep-62
Dec-62
Mar-63
Jun-63
Sep-63
Dec-63
Number of contacts
Mar-64
Jun-64
Sep-64
Dec-64
Mar-65
Tet Offensive, Jan/Feb 1968
1ATF casualties
Quarter year
Jun-65
Sep-65
Dec-65
Mar-66
1ATF contacts and associated casualties
Jun-66
Enemy Casualties
Sep-66
Dec-66
Mar-67
Jun-67

8. Number of contacts and casualties
0
100
200
300
400
600
700
800
900
500
Jun-62
Sep-62
Dec-62
Mar-63
Jun-63
Sep-63
Dec-63
Number of contacts
Mar-64
Jun-64
Sep-64
Dec-64
Mar-65
1ATF casualties
Quarter year
Jun-65
Sep-65
Dec-65
Mar-66
1ATF contacts and associated casualties
Mid-1969 ‘high point’
Jun-66
Enemy Casualties
Sep-66
Dec-66
Mar-67
Jun-67

9. Number of contacts
50
0
100
150
200
250
300
Dec-63
Mar-64 Jan ‘68
Jun-64
Sep-64
Dec-64
Mar-65
Enemy
Jun-65
1ATF
Sep-65
Dec-65
Quarter year
Mar-66
Who initiates contact?
Jun-66
Province Forces
Sep-66
Dec-66
Mar-67
Jun-67
Sep-67

10. Who initiates contact?
300
1ATF begins training
250
Province Forces, Apr ‘69
Number of contacts
200
150
100
50
0
Mar-64
Mar-65
Mar-66
Mar-67
Dec-63
Sep-64
Dec-64
Sep-65
Dec-65
Jun-66
Sep-66
Dec-66
Sep-67
Jun-64
Jun-65
Jun-67
Quarter year
Enemy 1ATF Province Forces

11. Phuoc Tuy
Major outlying
villages
Main population
and rice
production
centre

12. Phuoc Tuy
May Tao
Hat Dich
Nui Dinh,
Nui Thi Vai
Long Hais
(Minh Dam
Secret Zone)

17. Bunker systems and food captured by 1ATF
1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971
Bunker
systems 91 299 283 455 402 275
Captured
Average
weight of
food 4414 2193 624 157 103 80
captured
(lbs)

18. The VC turn to alternative sources of food
1969 1970 1971
VC food scrounging incidents 6 91 247
VC tax collection incidents 1 88 249

19. 1ATF patrol and ambush contacts
within 2.5km of a village
1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971
Patrol
and
93 60 123 113 132 46
ambush
contacts

20. Number of contacts and casualties
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
Jun-62
Sep-62
Dec-62
Mar-63
Jun-63
Sep-63
Dec-63
Number of contacts
Mar-64
Jun-64
Sep-64
Dec-64
Mar-65
1ATF casualties
Quarter year
Jun-65
Sep-65
Dec-65
Mar-66
1ATF contacts and associated casualties
Jun-66
Enemy Casualties
Sep-66
Dec-66
operations
Mar-67
Decline in combat
Jun-67

21. Rise of VC non-combat/political action
1969 1970 1971
VC assassinations 8 17 24
VC abductions 211 36 86
VC propaganda meetings with
19 134 223
civilians

22. Time sequence:
All 1ATF ambushes
by time of day

48. Snapshots: Social development in Phuoc Tuy Province
1966 End of 1971
Population 102,998 124,844
Radios: 8,451 19,178
Televisions: 57 1,324
Elementary school students 16,913 23,630
Secondary school students 2,316 5,059
Hospital beds 40 153

49. Snapshots: Economic development, Phuoc Tuy
1966 End of 1971
Rice production (mt) 18,000 18,250
Salt production (mt) 49,670 64,800
Sea food production (mt) 12,259 38,000
Timber production (m3) 2,667 7,618
Registered trucks 15 43
Registered motorcycles 0 6,206

50. Snapshots: Political instability-
Republic of Vietnam
President/Premier Duration
Ngo Dinh Diem (murdered in 1963 coup) 1954-63
General Duong Van Minh 86 days
General Nguyen Khanh 260 days
Tran Van Huong 84 days
Nguyen Xuan Oanh 19 days
Phan Huy Quat 112 days
Nguyen Cao Ky/Nguyen Van Thieu 1965 ....

51. Snapshots: Political legitimacy?
National Phuoc Tuy Result
turnout turnout
National Constituent 81% 89.4% New Democratic
Assembly Election, Constitution and
11 Sep 66 Electoral Laws
1967 Presidential 83% ? A ‘17-horse’ race.
Election, 3 Sep 67 Thieu wins with
34% of votes
1971 Presidential 87.9% 96.1% A ‘one-horse’
Election, 3 Oct 71 race. Thieu wins
with 94.3% of
votes

52. Discussion
Military Operations Analysis Team - Australian Centre for the Study of Armed Conflict and Society
Contact:
Dr Bob Hall
Phone: 02 6268 8848
Mobile: 0439 887 580
Email: b.hall@adfa.edu.au

53. Data …
What data is captured?
How is it captured, recorded and used?
Analysis …
What analysis is done?
Who does it?
For what purpose?
Is it aimed at deriving short term or long term lessons?

55. Vietnam - crop hectares for TN and paddy rice (1000 hectares)
3000
2500
2000
Hectares
1500 Paddy
TN rice
Paddy plus TN rice
1000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Years – 1962 - 1973

56. Total value - agricultural imports and exports (million VN$)
60000
50000
40000
Millions VN$
30000
Total value of agricultural imports
Total value of agricultural exports
20000
10000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Years 1968 - 1973

57. Vietnam - Estimated prices received by farmers, 1965-1972 (VN$
per kg)
700
600
500
Paddy
400
VN$ per Kg
Corn
Peanuts
Vegetables
300
Pigs
Chicken
200 Fishery products
100
0
Year

58. Retail price of rice - Baria market
80
70
60
50
Price $VN
40 Rice, long grain, good smelling, high
quality, 15% brokens 1 kg
Rice, medium grain, medium quality,
30 25% brokens 1 kg
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Fortnightly price samples - 15 Jan to 30 Sep 71

59. Average daily wages - Southern Vietnam
1600
1400
1200
1000
Average daily wages - Southern Vietnam
Labourer under 18 years Male
Piastre
800 Labourer under 18 years Female
Labourer 18 years and over Male
Labourer 18 years and over Female
600
Skilled worker Male
Skilled worker Female
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Years 1965 - 1973