1. Conflict prevention in practice:
from rhetoric to reality
Dr Abiodun Williams US Institute of Peace
> Paper 02/2012
It is natural for policy makers, public officials and even think
tanks to focus primarily on violent conflicts that are already
occurring. With people being killed daily and horrific images
being shown in real time across the globe, today’s conflicts
simply cannot be ignored. Yet what about tomorrow’s
conflicts, those we can envisage but that are not inevitable?
Today there is broad agreement on the importance of
preventive action. An array of actors—the United Nations, inadequate. Furthermore, both practitioners and scholars
regional organisations, national governments (including continue to lament the absence of a framework allowing
that of the United States) and a host of civil society them to think systematically about the design of effective
bodies—have identified preventing violent conflict as a prevention strategies.
strategic priority. As the Obama administration’s National The idea that violent conflict can be prevented is an old
Security Strategy states, ‘The untold loss of human life, one. It is a foundational concept of the United Nations
suffering, and property damage that results from armed and a feature of the charters of most regional and
conflict necessitates that all responsible nations work to subregional organisations. More than 50 years ago former
prevent it’. This is well put, although it might be asked, UN Secretary‑General Dag Hammarskjold coined the term
‘Do “all responsible nations” treat the prevention of ‘preventive diplomacy’ at the height of the Cold War. He saw
armed conflict as a “necessity”?’ It is undeniable that far preventive diplomacy as a way of helping to stop local and
too often the answer is ‘no’. The fundamental challenge regional disputes drawing in the superpowers and sparking
is to narrow the gap between rhetoric and reality, global war. After the Cold War was over and the optimism
proclamations and actions, in preventing violent conflict. in its wake had waned, the idea of conflict prevention
The current global climate of austerity and the growing gained new life. Preventive diplomacy was at the centre of
awareness of the economic, strategic and moral Boutros Boutros-Ghali’s landmark 1992 report An Agenda
imperatives of prevention are increasing the momentum for for Peace. Boutros-Ghali noted that the ‘timely application
preventive action. But, while political support has spread, of preventive diplomacy is the most desirable and efficient
the institutional capacity for preventive action remains means of easing tensions before they result in conflict’.1
1 ACMC Paper 2/2012 > Conflict prevention in practice: from rhetoric to reality

2. The Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict did The recent violence in Libya, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere
path-breaking work on conflict prevention, expanding both underlines the difficulty of managing crises once they erupt
the argument for prevention and its conceptual dimensions. and the importance of improving conflict prevention efforts.
The commission made three important observations in its Even though not every war can be prevented, more effective
influential 1997 report: use of the various conflict prevention mechanisms can
reduce the number of new conflicts.
>> Deadly conflict is not inevitable.
>> The need to prevent such conflict is increasingly urgent.
Strengthening institutional
>> Successful prevention is possible.
The report described ‘conflict prevention’ as including
capacity
actions and policies designed to prevent the emergence of The current levels of political and rhetorical support for
violent conflict, prevent continuing conflicts from spreading, preventive action are unprecedented. In a recent report to
and prevent the re-emergence of violence.2 The narrower the UN Security Council, Secretary-General Ban Ki‑moon
term ‘preventive diplomacy’, which is more commonly used noted that preventive diplomacy will be a priority during
in the UN context, refers specifically to diplomatic action his second term as Secretary-General: ‘It is, without
taken to prevent disputes from escalating into violence and doubt, one of the smartest investments we can make’.5
to limit disputes’ spread when violent conflict does erupt.3 The value of prevention is affirmed in important US policy
documents such as the report of the 2010 Quadrennial
The Carnegie Commission’s report also distinguished
Diplomacy and Development Review, the 2010 National
between structural and operational prevention efforts.
Security Strategy, and the report of the 2010 Quadrennial
‘Structural prevention’—also known as conflict risk
Defense Review. It is also endorsed by other major powers
reduction—refers to long-term initiatives aimed at
and international financial institutions such as the World
mitigating tensions by augmenting local, regional and global
Bank and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
capacity to peacefully resolve disputes, strengthening
Development. Statements of this nature provide a sufficient
normative frameworks conducive to peace, and confronting
normative foundation for strengthening institutions for
the underlying causes of specific conflicts; examples of such
preventive action but also create high expectations about
efforts are regional integration, human rights protection,
the international community’s ability to prevent the onset
and support for democratic principles and equitable
and escalation of violent conflict.
development. ‘Operational prevention’—often referred
to as direct prevention or crisis management—involves Although there has been much progress in the
both cooperative and coercive efforts aimed at short‑term institutionalisation of prevention at the global, regional and
risk reduction in conflict situations where violence is national levels in recent years, important gaps remain. In
considered imminent; examples of such mechanisms are addition, the prevention mechanisms of the United Nations,
third-party mediation, sanctions, demobilisation, and the European Union, the US Government and other sizeable
preventive deployment. Although a number of conflict bureaucracies are spread across agencies, departments,
prevention mechanisms are often used to alleviate funds and programs, and new structures are continually
tensions between countries, most prevention strategies created. In view of its global mission, universal membership
are specifically attuned in order to increase stability and technical expertise, the United Nations is currently the
between political, ethnic, religious or social groups. primary organisation engaged in the prevention of conflict
between and within states.
Conflict prevention was also a priority for Kofi Annan
during his tenure as UN Secretary-General. It was the There has been some progress in developing institutional
theme of his 2001 report Prevention of Armed Conflict and structures for prevention within the UN system. In 2001 the
his 1999 annual report to the General Assembly, which UN Development Programme created the Bureau for Crisis
urged member states to move ‘from a culture of reaction Prevention and Recovery, which provides development and
to a culture of prevention’.4 This was, however, a fiendishly technical support to countries so that they can strengthen
difficult task because it posed a transformational challenge. their own capacity to prevent conflict. The UN Interagency
A separate but related challenge was to bring together those Framework Team for Preventive Action is a system-wide
political and security actors in the UN system engaged mechanism that promotes interagency cooperation on early
primarily in preventive diplomacy or operational prevention preventive action. Establishment of the Mediation Support
and the development and governance actors engaged in Unit in the Department of Political Affairs in 2006 and the
structural prevention.
2 ACMC Paper 2/2012 > Conflict prevention in practice: from rhetoric to reality

3. creation of a new joint office for the prevention of genocide interagency Atrocities Prevention Board that will ‘coordinate
and promotion of the responsibility to protect should a whole-of-government approach to engaging “early,
strengthen the United Nations’ capacity for preventive proactively, and decisively” in situations at risk of mass
diplomacy and early warning. There remains, however, atrocities’.6 The directive could improve America’s ability
a need to have a more systematic conflict prevention to analyse and prevent violent conflict more broadly and
perspective in the UN’s multifaceted programs and change the reactive culture that continues to prevail.
activities, so that they can contribute to the prevention of
conflict by design and not by default. The UN also needs to
ensure that the several major streams of information that
Conflict prevention in practice
are disconnected from each other are better synchronised in Effective preventive action calls for knowing how, when
order to improve the organisation’s early warning capability. and where to design and implement preventive strategies.
The US Institute of Peace has developed a strategic
The European Union’s integration process is itself a conflict
framework for preventing violent conflict that helps
prevention tool. The EU has also developed an early warning
practitioners start thinking systematically about the
centre, intelligence fusion centres, and a checklist of the root
design of preventive action. The framework is organised
causes of conflict. A new European External Action Service
in terms of the desired end state, primary objectives and
has been created with the explicit purpose of improving
leadership responsibilities. The desired end state—stable
the effectiveness and coherence of the EU’s foreign policy.
peace—does not necessitate the absence of disputes
This diplomatic service will include a Directorate for Conflict
since the airing of differences can lead to constructive
Prevention and Security Policy, designed to coordinate
change if properly handled. Conflict prevention strategies
the EU’s prevention activities, and could place the EU’s
are therefore not aimed at the avoidance of conflict per se;
operational impact on a par with its institutional capacity.
rather, they are aimed at the avoidance of violent conflict.
Other regional and subregional organisations—such as the
The framework’s primary objectives are divided into three
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the
broad, potentially complementary categories—mitigation
African Union, the Organization of American States, and the
of global risks, mitigation of societal risks, and reversal of
Economic Community of West African States—have also
escalation. The crucial leadership responsibilities include
strengthened their capacity to prevent violent conflicts from
planning and coordinating multifaceted strategies involving
erupting. For example, the Economic Community of West
a diverse cast of actors and ensuring that short- and
African States has adopted a Conflict Prevention Framework,
long‑term strategies are complementary. The framework
probably the best existing intergovernmental framework of
should not be mistaken for a checklist or a ‘one-size-fits-all’
its kind. The framework is, however, extremely ambitious
template: for any strategy to succeed it must be tailored to
given current capacities.
the specific context and dynamics and based on a thorough
Within the US Government, the Department of State and the conflict analysis.7
US Agency for International Development have prevention as
A wide array of parties engage in conflict prevention efforts,
their primary responsibility. The State Department’s Office
using a variety of cooperative and coercive tools. In his 2001
of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
report UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan emphasised that
was established in 2004 with a mandate to coordinate
‘the primary responsibility for conflict prevention rests with
both prevention and reconstruction initiatives. Among the
national governments, with civil society playing an important
new tools that have been developed is the Interagency
role’.8 Prevention starts with domestic efforts to build
Conflict Assessment Framework, which looks at the
capacity for the constructive management of disputes, meet
causes of conflict and mitigating factors. The Office of the
obligations under international peacebuilding norms, and
Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization conducts
accept assistance from external parties if needed. Several
ICAF exercises but is constrained by capacity limitations
factors do, however, continue to impede the development of
and political sensitivities. Other assessments are agency or
effective prevention strategies, among them governments’
sector specific.
unwillingness to acknowledge their country’s fragility, the
Important institutional developments relating to the interest of elites in exploiting ethnic differences for political
prevention of conflict and mass atrocities are also under gain and the absence of well-established mechanisms for
way. The August 2011 Presidential Study Directive on prevention and resolution of conflicts. This means external
Mass Atrocities alters the focus to strengthening the players are needed to encourage conflict-mitigating
US Government’s capacity to prevent genocide and behaviour using the available ‘carrots and sticks’.
other atrocity crimes and authorised the creation of an
3 ACMC Paper 2/2012 > Conflict prevention in practice: from rhetoric to reality

4. The United Nations and regional organisations remain the crisis has erupted. Three main factors contributed to the
leading players in prevention activities worldwide. The UN’s preventive push in Sudan:
prevention activities include the Secretary‑General’s good
>> There was a clear, discrete event—the referendum—
offices, provision of electoral assistance, fact finding,
that, it was feared, could trigger major violence.
the involvement of UN regional offices, the use of political
missions, and even the deployment of preventive >> The history of conflict in Sudan raised
military force. At the request of the UN Security Council, fears that, if war was not averted, the war
the Department of Political Affairs delivers ‘horizon scanning’ could be extremely long and bloody.
briefings that assess the situation in both ongoing conflicts >> Atrocities in Sudan’s Darfur region in the preceding
and countries at risk. several years had led to a public outcry and forced
Non-government organisations—for example, the Sudan onto the international political agenda.
International Crisis Group, International Alert, the Global
Partnership for the Prevention of Armed Conflict, and Challenges for preventive action
the West African Network of Peacebuilding—are also
instrumental in the prevention of conflict. They provide Although much progress has been made in the field of
early warning, build relations with local communities, conflict prevention, there remain some specific challenges.
draw attention to human rights abuses, and help to mobilise
The warning–response gap
political will. They are often present in places after others
have left and provide support to implement preventive The ‘disconnect’ between early warning and timely, decisive
projects in fragile environments. political action poses a major challenge for the prevention
of armed conflict. New communication technologies
Despite formidable impediments, progress has been made
allow analysts to detect and draw attention to signs of
not only at the normative level but at the operational level.
instability at an early stage. The number of organisations
The UN Preventive Deployment Force was deployed in
providing early warning has also increased rapidly in the
Macedonia from 1993 to 1999, and its work is generally
past decade: early warning of armed conflict now comes
regarded as one of the more successful UN peacekeeping
from non-government organisations, governments, regional
operations. In an unprecedented move, UN peacekeepers
organisations, risk assessment firms, and so on. But thus far
were deployed before the outbreak of violent conflict, rather
the availability of so much information has had only a limited
than after hostilities had broken out. This ground-breaking
impact on prevention strategies. The gap between warning
preventive deployment in Macedonia ensured that war did
and response can be a consequence of ambiguous warnings,
not spill over into that fragile republic.9
poor analysis or information overload. Responding to this
One example of successful preventive action by a regional challenge calls for adjustments on the part of both the
player concerns the involvement of the Organization for producer and the receiver.
Security and Co-operation in Europe in Estonia in the early
Conflict analysts and intelligence officials need to make
1900s, after the withdrawal of Soviet troops from the
sure their information is timely, precise and accurate.
country. The former OSCE High Commissioner on National
The warnings also need to be actionable—including not
Minorities, Max van der Stoel, effectively contributed to the
only diagnosis but also prescription—linking warning with
prevention of a conflict relating to the Russian-speaking
concrete response options.10 Decision makers should be
minority through his discreet diplomatic engagement and by
more receptive to the analytical capacity of the intelligence
encouraging reform of citizen laws that discriminated against
community and others who produce warnings and should
this minority in Estonia.
set up new procedures that facilitate information sharing
The upsurge in action to head off a potential conflict within their own governments and organisations, as well as
prompted by the Sudan referendum in January 2011 is also externally with civil society, partner organisations and allies.
notable. The US Government, the United Nations, the African
The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights
Union, civil society groups and others exerted tremendous
and the new joint office for the prevention of genocide and
energy with the goal of averting a return to major violent
promotion of the responsibility to protect are working to
conflict. Although it is still too early to assess the ultimate
improve the UN’s early warning capability by signalling the
value of these efforts, the case of Sudan generated much
risk of both conflict and mass atrocity crimes directly to
high-level attention and activity in advance of a potential
the Secretary-General, who in turn can alert the Security
conflict, the alternative being a belated response after a
Council. In his recent report on preventive diplomacy
4 ACMC Paper 2/2012 > Conflict prevention in practice: from rhetoric to reality

5. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed cautious unwilling to compromise or acknowledge the potential
optimism about these developments. He also emphasised for violence within its borders, or if the use of violence is
the need to improve the UN’s ability to anticipate ‘threshold considered the best policy alternative for safeguarding
moments’ that could rapidly trigger widespread violence in the country’s interests, outsiders will need to apply their
fragile countries.11 diplomatic skills to produce incentives and disincentives and
persuade the relevant parties that peaceful engagement
Preventing electoral violence is necessary and preferable to the use of violence.12
The five months of violence that followed Cote d’Ivoire’s A number of countries in the UN General Assembly—
presidential election in November 2010 tragically particularly the most vocal members of the G-77—still
demonstrated why preventing electoral violence should consider international conflict prevention an unwarranted
be a priority. The moral imperative for preventing such interference with their sovereignty and lament the risk of
violence is clear: electoral violence can lead to great loss unintended consequences, partiality and selectiveness
of life and, in extreme cases, mass atrocities or civil war. associated with international engagements.
There are also strategic reasons for making prevention When tensions are rising it remains a challenge to sell
of electoral violence an important objective: electoral the logic of prevention in some of the power centres of
violence undermines domestic support for representative international politics, such as the UN Security Council or
democracy, and countries that have a history of electoral the US Congress. Conflict prevention is generally viewed
violence have a tendency to experience recurrences in a as non‑urgent, invisible and extremely hard to evaluate
seemingly vicious circle. because political leaders assign priority to action that
Understanding the causes of electoral violence is the first allows them to produce tangible results before the end of
step towards effective preventive action. An election can their short electoral cycles.
ignite violence in a country at risk, but the causes are usually When assessing the suitability of alternative foreign policy
more fundamental and structural. There is a need for a approaches, decision makers are often persuaded by previous
better understanding of the elements of an effective strategy success stories and quantitative evidence. A broad effort to
for preventing electoral violence. analyse case studies of prevention successes and failures and
The role of rising global powers existing measures that quantify the advantage of preventive
action might help tip the balance in favour of prevention.
The support of rising or emerging powers will be
indispensable to strengthening international efforts
aimed at conflict prevention. The so-called BRICS—Brazil, Notes
Russia, India, China and South Africa—together with other 1
A/47/277–S/24111, 17 June 1992.
regional powers such as Indonesia, Turkey, Nigeria, Mexico 2
Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Final Report,
and Argentina can offer invaluable regional influence Carnegie Corporation, New York, 1997, p. xviii.
or experience and the necessary human, financial and 3
S/2011/552, 26 August 2011, p. 2.
diplomatic capacity to implement the global conflict 4
A/54/1, 31 August 1999, p. 13.
prevention agenda. But advocates of preventive action 5
S/2011/552, 26 August 2011, p. 19.
face a sizeable challenge in encouraging the rising global
powers to acknowledge that conflict prevention is in their
6
The White House, Presidential Study Directive on Mass Atrocities,
4 August 2011, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the‑press‑office/
strategic interest and ensuring they act accordingly.
2011/08/04/presidential-study‑directive‑mass‑atrocities.
Those rising powers that suffer from internal violence Viewed 17 October 2011.
emphasise the primary responsibility of each sovereign 7
US Institute of Peace, Strategic Framework: preventing violent
state to prevent conflict within its own borders. Concerns conflict, Peacebuilding toolkit, Institute of Peace, Washington DC, 2009.
about sovereignty erosion and the breakdown of the 8
A/55/985-S/2001/574, 7 June 2001, p. 2.
non‑intervention principle enshrined in the UN Charter still 9
See Abiodun Williams, Preventing War: the United Nations and
prevail over the perceived need to strengthen international Macedonia, Rowman & Littlefield, Lanham MD, 2000.
and regional institutions so they can act preventively. 10
Christoph O Meyer, Florian Otto, John Brante et al., ‘Recasting
Making the case for conflict prevention the warning–response problem: persuasion and preventive policy’,
International Studies Review, vol. 12, no. 4, 2010, pp. 556–78.
Generating political will—both within the target country 11
S/2011/552, 26 August 2011, p. 13.
and among external parties capable of mitigating the risk 12
S/2011/552, 26 August 2011, p. 12.
of conflict—is another crucial challenge for international
prevention efforts. If the regime of a country at risk is
5 ACMC Paper 2/2012 > Conflict prevention in practice: from rhetoric to reality