Alembic Pharma Limited: Check out the institutional research report of Q4 result of Alembic Pharma Ltd. Alembic Pharma’s (ALPM) revenue grew 16%YoY to Rs 8.5bn in 4QFY18

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RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY18 17 MAY 2018
Alembic Pharma
NEUTRAL
INDUSTRY PHARMA
CMP (as on 16 May 2018) Rs 480
Target Price Rs 535
Nifty 10,741
Sensex 35,388
KEY STOCK DATA
Bloomberg ALPM IN
No. of Shares (mn) 189
MCap (Rsbn) / ($ mn) 90/1,332
6m avg traded value (Rsmn) 45
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
52 Week high / low Rs 615/468
3M 6M 12M
No near term triggers
Alembic Pharma’s (ALPM) revenue grew 16%YoY to
Rs 8.5bn, led by one off payment from the US
marketing partner to the tune of US$ 5-6mn and
higher volumes in rest of the US portfolio in 4QFY18.
Although EBITDA grew 29% YoY to Rs 1.7bn, it
declined 8% QoQ, largely driven by lower gross
margin and higher R&D spend (14% of sales).
Reported PAT remained flat YoY at Rs 938mn with
relatively higher tax rate in 4QFY18.
Despite 4Q numbers looking good for ALPM and we
have been constructive on ALPM’s long-term story,
we strongly believe that the significant benefits from
the recent investments are back-ended and will be
realized from 2HFY20. Lucrative ANDA filings in the
US will begin only in 4QFY19 and launches
thereafter. In the meanwhile, we expect the
company’s elevated cost structure to keep EBITDA
margin under pressure with operating expenses
increasing without commensurate revenues flowing
in. The impact of this pressure will be exacerbated in
FY19 with growing depreciation and interest cost.
Especially,when the material launches in the US are
too few and far in-between. The key formulation
facility at Panelav is also yet to receive EIR post FDA
inspection, delaying the pending product approvals
further. Maintain NEUTRAL with a revised TP of Rs
535 (18x FY20E EPS).
Highlights of the quarter
▪ US business: ALPM’s performance in the US picked up
in 4QFY18, with US$ 5-6mn one off deferred payment.
Adjusted for this payment, US sales still grew
sequentially. The company has filed 25+ ANDA in FY18
and likely to file similar number of products in FY19.
▪ The green field oral oncology plant and derma plant
are ready to get commissioned in FY19. Filings should
start from 4QFY19. Oncology injectable and general
injectable plants will also get completed by 1HFY19.
▪ Other takeaways: (1) Mgmt guided for higher than
market growth for India formulation segment, (2)
Likely to incur Rs 6bn on Capex in FY19. (3) To spend Rs
4.5-5bn on R&D in FY19.
▪ Near-term outlook: Unexpected approvals for the US
market remain the only trigger for the stock.
Financial Summary
AmeyChalke
amey.chalke@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7321 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research# Consolidated
(Rsmn) 4QFY18 4QFY17 YoY (%) 3QFY18 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Net Sales 8,533 7,378 15.7 8,400 1.6 31,052 31,308 35,100 39,822
EBIDTA 1,732 1,346 28.7 1,875 (7.6) 6,147 6,431 7,020 9,000
APAT 938 930 0.8 1,306 (28.2) 4,032 4,126 4,162 5,605
Diluted adj. EPS (Rs) 5.0 4.9 0.8 6.9 (28.2) 21.4 21.9 22.1 29.7
P/E (x) 22.4 21.9
RoE (%) 23.0 20.7
21.7 16.1
19.7 21.1
Absolute (%) (16.9) (7.1) (21.1)
Relative (%) (20.9) (13.9) (36.8)
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)
Promoters 72.7
FIs & Local MFs 3.9
FPIs 10.5
Public & Others 13.0
Source : BSE

2. ALEMBIC PHARMA:RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY18
Page | 2
Quarterly Financials Snapshot (Consolidated)
Particulars 4QFY18 4QFY17 YoY (%) 3QFY18 QoQ (%)
Employee Expenses 1,573 1,379 14.1 1,474 6.7
R&D Expenses 1,208 1,123 7.6 981 23.1
Other Expenses 1,382 1,526 (9.5) 1,805 (23.5)
EBITDA 1,732 1,346 28.7 1,875 (7.6)
Depreciation 316 218 264
Other Income 6 9 3
PBT 1,410 1,118 26.0 1,606 (12.2)
Minority Interest 87 23 3
EO Items (Adj For Tax) - - -
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Margin Analysis
4QFY18 4QFY17 YoY (bps) 3QFY18 QoQ (bps)
Material Expenses % Net Sales 30.9 27.2 374 27.0 396
Employee Expenses % Net Sales 18.4 18.7 (25) 17.6 88
R&D Expenses % Net Sales 14.2 15.2 (106) 11.7 248
Other Expenses % Net Sales 16.2 20.7 (449) 21.5 (530)
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.3 18.2 206 22.3 (202)
Tax Rate (%) 27.3 14.7 1,258 18.5 879
APAT Margin (%) 11.0 12.6 (162) 15.5 (456)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
ALPM’s top line grew 16%YoY
to Rs 8.5bn in 4QFY18, largely
led by 29%YoY growth in
international business
R&D expenses were higher at
Rs 1.2bn in 4QFY8
Although opex has declined
sequentially, we expect
strong ramp up in the coming
quarters.
ALPM is commissioning five
facilities for the US market in
FY19 with revenues to start
coming in from 2HFY20
EBITDA margin contraction
was a factor of higher R&D
spending
Net Sales 8,533 7,378 15.7 8,400 1.6
Material Expenses 2,638 2,005 31.6 2,264 16.5
EBIT 1,417 1,128 25.6 1,611 (12.1)
Interest Cost 13 18 8
Tax 385 165 298
RPAT 938 930 0.8 1,306 (28.2)
APAT 938 930 0.8 1,306 (28.2)

3. ALEMBIC PHARMA:RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY18
Page | 3
1.8
21.1
2.4
Revenue: Growth Aided By US Business Up-Tick Domestic Business: In-Line With Expectations
24.7
Revenue (Rs mn) YoY growth (%) Domestic formulations rev.(Rs mn) YoY growth (%)
17.2
1.8 2.6 (0.4)
6.3
13.7
6.3
( )
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
International Biz: Pick-Up Driven ByMarket Share EBITDA Margin: Affected By Higher R&D
Gains And One Off Income
International Generics(Rs mn) YoY growth (%) EBITDA (Rs mn) EBITDA margin(%)
80.0
22.7
21.6
20.4
18.9 18.2
15.8
22.7 22.3
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
1.01.3
17.9
(13.5) (
8.7
(15.9)
7.7 8.5
15.7
12.0)
6.46.3 7.47.3
(9.5)
7.9
9.0
8.4
41.2
22.3
( )
( )
(
(
3.4
33.9
1.8
26.4
2.52.6
10.8
2.7
44.9)
2.8
3.1
2.93.0 3.4
39.4)
20.3
3.03.53.6
6.1
3.9
1.4 1.51.6 1.71.8
1.9
2.7 2.93.0 3.1
Top line growth was aided by
one off income in the US and
growing volumes for existing
products
We expect the domestic
business to grow in-line with
the market in FY19
International generics
performance was boosted by
strong traction in the US and
one off income.
EBITDA margin declined
sequentially due to lower
gross margin and higher R&D
cost
4QFY164QFY16
1QFY171QFY17
2QFY172QFY17
3QFY173QFY17
4QFY174QFY17
1QFY181QFY18
2QFY182QFY18
3QFY183QFY18
4QFY184QFY18
4QFY164QFY16
1QFY171QFY17
2QFY172QFY17
3QFY173QFY17
4QFY174QFY17
1QFY181QFY18
2QFY182QFY18
3QFY183QFY18
4QFY184QFY18

4. Page | 4
Segmental Quarterly Performance
(Rsmn) 4QFY18 4QFY17 YoY (%) 3QFY18 QoQ (%)
Domestic Formulations 3,040 2,860 6.3 3,490 (12.9)
International Business 3,520 2,730 28.9 3,110 13.2
API and others 1,980 1,810 9.4 1,800 10.0
Source: HDFC sec Inst Research
Assumptions
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Domestic formulations 11,873 12,550 12,740 14,367 16,206
International Business 14,647 12,360 12,060 13,978 16,197
API Business 5,283 6,400 6,510 7,158 7,876
Total 31,803 31,310 31,310 35,503 40,279
Source: HDFC sec Inst Research
Like-to-like growth in the
domestic business would be
8%YoY
Despite weak growth in this
quarter, the mgt has
maintained that they aim to
grow the domestic business
above the market rate
ALEMBIC PHARMA:RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY18
Total 8,540 7,400 15.4 8,400 1.7
Growth (%) 7.6 5.7 1.5 12.8 12.8
Growth (%) 151.7 (15.6) (2.4) 15.9 15.9
Growth (%) 53.8 (1.5) - 13.4 13.5
Growth (%) 53.8 (1.5) - 13.4 13.5

5. Page | 5
ALEMBIC PHARMA:RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY18
Peer Valuations
Mcap
(Rsbn)
CMP
(Rs/sh)
Reco TP
Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) RoE (%)
FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Sun Pharma 1,135 472 NEU 544 26.0 14.0 20.1 27.2 18.2 33.8 23.4 17.3 17.9 9.1 12.3 14.8
Cipla 450 560 NEU 631 12.5 18.4 25.7 33.2 44.8 30.4 21.8 16.9 8.4 11.2 14.0 15.8
Cadila Healthcare 394 384 BUY 523 14.5 11.3 16.4 22.7 26.4 33.9 23.4 16.9 23.5 15.4 19.0 22.3
AurobindoPharma 352 602 BUY 835 39.3 35.2 46.0 52.2 15.3 17.1 13.1 11.5 27.6 20.0 21.4 20.0
Lupin 345 767 BUY 1,219 33.4 38.0 39.6 59.7 23.0 20.2 19.4 12.8 12.2 12.7 12.5 16.8
Dr Reddy's Labs 339 1,994 NEU 2,320 72.7 64.7 116.0 161.0 27.4 30.8 17.2 12.4 9.5 8.4 13.9 17.0
Divi's Labs 309 1,165 NEU 1,100 39.9 33.4 44.9 51.7 29.2 34.9 26.0 22.5 22.0 15.7 18.8 19.0
Alkem Laboratories 241 2,015 BUY 2,124 74.6 62.6 85.0 106.2 27.0 32.2 23.7 19.0 21.9 15.8 18.8 20.2
Torrent Pharma 230 1,357 BUY 1,748 51.2 38.9 62.0 79.5 26.5 34.9 21.9 17.1 22.1 14.9 21.5 23.2
Glenmark 146 518 BUY 781 29.6 18.5 30.0 43.8 17.5 28.0 17.3 11.8 18.1 9.8 14.0 17.5
Jubilant Life Sciences 127 816 BUY 1,060 37.0 46.6 65.5 80.4 22.1 17.5 12.5 10.1 18.0 19.3 22.4 22.5
Alembic Pharma 90 479 NEU 535 21.4 23.3 25.3 31.8 22.4 20.6 19.0 15.1 23.0 21.2 19.7 21.0
DishmanCarbogenAmcis 57 352 BUY 480 9.0 9.9 15.2 22.4 39.0 35.6 23.1 15.7 3.0 3.3 4.9 6.8
Strides Shasun 45 499 BUY 980 34.0 27.7 39.0 59.4 14.7 18.0 12.8 8.4 13.1 4.6 12.9 17.1
Granules India 25 97 BUY 177 7.5 6.0 8.5 11.8 12.9 16.2 11.4 8.2 21.0 13.7 15.3 18.9
Neuland Labs 6 711 BUY 1,065 42.6 11.0 28.9 62.3 16.7 64.8 24.6 11.4 12.8 2.2 5.5 11.1
Source: HDFC sec Inst Research
Change In Estimates (Consolidated)
Rsmn
Previous New % Chg
FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E FY18E FY19E FY20E
Net Sales 30,780 35,168 40,178 31,308 35,100 39,822 1.7 (0.2) (0.9)
EBITDA 6,525 7,491 9,281 6,431 7,020 9,000 (1.4) (6.3) (3.0)
APAT 4,357 4,759 6,019 4,126 4,162 5,605 (5.3) (12.6) (6.9)
Source: HDFC sec Inst Research
We have cut our estimates to
factor in incremental impact of
higher opex, depreciation cost
and interest payments in
FY19/FY20

6. Page | 6
ALEMBIC PHARMA:RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY18
Income Statement (Consolidated) Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Year ending March (Rsmn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E As at March (Rsmn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Net Revenues 31,232 31,052 31,308 35,100 39,822 SOURCES OF FUNDS
Growth (%) 52.2 (0.6) 0.8 12.1 13.5 Share Capital - Equity 377 377 377 377 377
Material Expenses 7,811 8,581 8,856 9,302 10,354 Reserves 15,597 18,634 21,824 24,884 29,386
Employee Expenses 4,729 5,588 6,228 6,950 7,447 Total Shareholders Funds 15,974 19,011 22,201 25,261 29,763
SG&A Expenses 5,554 6,465 5,683 7,371 8,243 Minority Interest - 1 3 1 1
R&D Expenses 3,071 4,270 4,110 4,458 4,779 Long Term Debt - - 5,000 5,000 3,000
EBITDA 10,067 6,147 6,431 7,020 9,000 Short Term Debt 1,137 802 2,078 1,500 1,000
EBITDA Margin (%) 32.2 19.8 20.5 20.0 22.6 Total Debt 1,137 802 7,078 6,500 4,000
EBITDA Growth (%) 150.0 (38.9) 4.6 9.2 28.2 Net Deferred Taxes 427 369 354 369 369
Depreciation 722 830 1,055 1,350 1,550
Other Non-
413 698 603 1,011 1,206
EBIT 9,345 5,318 5,376 5,670 7,450 currentLiabilities&Provns
Other Income (Including EO TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 17,951 20,882 30,240 33,142 35,339
Items) 73 25 70 80 100 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Interest 54 51 34 350 300 Net Block 7,081 7,994 10,928 15,578 18,528
PBT 9,363 5,291 5,413 5,400 7,250 CWIP 1,225 4,660 9,108 9,000 6,500
Tax (Incl Deferred) 2,161 1,222 1,204 1,188 1,595 Investments 534 502 416 497 497
Minority Interest (2) (37) (83) (50) (50) Other Non-current Assets 333 501 711 711 711
RPAT 7,201 4,032 4,126 4,162 5,605 Total Non-current Assets 9,173 13,656 21,163 25,786 26,236
EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) 4,059 - - - - Cash & Equivalents 4,508 1,596 899 282 1,345
APAT 3,142 4,032 4,126 4,162 5,605 Inventories 5,698 6,328 7,339 6,371 6,241
APAT Growth (%) 11.0 28.3 2.3 0.9 34.7 Debtors 3,505 3,375 5,263 4,808 5,455
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 16.7 21.4 21.9 22.1 29.7 Other Current Assets 1,402 1,912 4,746 5,320 6,036
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Total Current Assets 10,604 11,615 17,348 16,499 17,732
Creditors 5,657 5,232 7,593 7,645 7,943
Other Current Liabilities &Provns 678 753 1,577 1,780 2,031
Total Current Liabilities 6,335 5,985 9,170 9,425 9,973
Net Current Assets 4,270 5,629 8,178 7,074 7,758
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 17,951 20,882 30,240 33,142 35,339

7. Page | 7
ALEMBIC PHARMA:RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY18
Cash Flow Key Ratios
Year ending March (Rsmn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Reported PBT 9,363 5,291 5,413 5,400 7,250 PROFITABILITY (%)
Non-operating & EO items - - - - - GPM 75.0 72.4 71.7 73.5 74.0
Interest expenses (18) 27 (36) 270 200 EBITDA Margin 32.2 19.8 20.5 20.0 22.6
Depreciation 722 830 1,055 1,350 1,550 APAT Margin 10.1 13.0 13.2 11.9 14.1
Working Capital Change 1,219 (1,242) (2,854) 1,511 (489) RoE 24.5 23.0 20.0 17.5 20.4
Tax Paid (1,974) (1,280) (1,218) (1,173) (1,595) RoIC (or Core RoCE) 60.9 26.5 18.0 14.8 18.0
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 9,311 3,625 2,359 7,358 6,916 RoCE 21.0 21.0 16.2 14.0 17.1
Capex (3,086) (5,047) (8,436) (5,893) (2,000) EFFICIENCY
Free cash flow (FCF) 6,225 (1,422) (6,077) 1,465 4,916 Tax Rate (%) 23.1 23.1 22.2 22.0 22.0
Non-operating Income 73 25 70 80 100 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.6 1.5
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (3,010) (4,990) (8,280) (5,893) (1,900) Inventory (days) 66.6 74.4 85.6 66.3 57.2
Debt Issuance/(Repaid) (1,121) (335) 6,275 (578) (2,500) Debtors (days) 41.0 39.7 61.4 50.0 50.0
Interest Expenses (54) (51) (34) (350) (300) Other Current Assets (days) 16.4 22.5 55.3 55.3 55.3
FCFE 5,127 (1,751) 320 537 2,216 Payables (days) 66.1 61.5 88.5 79.5 72.8
Share Capital Issuance - - - - - Other Current Liab&Provns (days) 7.9 8.9 18.4 18.5 18.6
Dividend (882) (882) (992) (1,103) (1,103) Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 49.9 66.2 95.3 73.6 71.1
Others (2) 279 40 52 50 Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.1 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.4
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (2,055) (1,547) 5,209 (2,083) (3,953) Net D/E (x) (0.2) (0.0) 0.3 0.2 0.1
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 4,246 (2,912) (713) (618) 1,063 Interest Coverage (x) 172.1 103.9 158.1 16.2 24.8
EO Items, Others - - - - - PER SHARE DATA (Rs)
Closing Cash & Equivalents 4,508 1,596 883 282 1,345 EPS 16.7 21.4 21.9 22.1 29.7
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Dividend 4.0 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.0
Book Value 84.7 100.9 117.8 134.0 157.9
VALUATION
P/E (x) 28.8 22.4 21.9 21.7 16.1
P/BV (x) 5.7 4.8 4.1 3.6 3.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.7 14.6 15.0 13.8 10.3
EV/Revenues (x) 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.3
OCF/EV (%) 10.7 4.0 2.4 7.6 7.4
FCF/EV (%) 7.1 (1.6) (6.3) 1.5 5.3
FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 5.7 (1.9) 0.4 0.6 2.4
Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

8. Page | 8
ALEMBIC PHARMA:RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY18
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Date CMP Reco Target
3-May-17 605 BUY 675
20-Jul-17 552 BUY 635
10-Oct-17 503 BUY 650
8-Nov-17 515 NEU 555
11-Jan-18 563 NEU 590
31-Jan-18 567 NEU 605
13-Apr-18 500 NEU 575
17-May-18 480 NEU 535
Rating Definitions
BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
TPAlembic Pharma
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18

9. Page | 9
ALEMBIC PHARMA:RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY18
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10. Page|10
ALEMBIC PHARMA:RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY18
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