macro view of where the world is - and scenarios for what might happen

1. The Global Future 2012
Steady progress or cataclysmic change?
Pete O’Dell
Pete.odell@swanisland.net
www.swanisland.net

2. Context
Suspend belief – forget obstacles for today
World, national, local views
Future discussion and vision
 Framework
 Trends
 Emerging markets
 The “Next Big Thing”
“Where there is no vision, the people perish”
 Proverbs 29:18

3. Food for thought….ancient to
present day
“There is nothing permanent except
change.” – --Heraclitus (540 – 480 B.C.)
“Today, [we] are functionally linked together in a
vast organic system…The earth [is] not only
becoming covered by myriads of grains of
thought, but becoming enclosed in a single
thinking envelope.” --Teilhard de Chardin, 1925
“Economically, the Internet is just like electricity.
First, it’s new and exciting. Then it steadily
transforms your economy…Decades later nobody
would think to call it the electricity economy. It’s
just there.”--Robert E. Litan, Economic Studies, Brookings
Institute

4. The Dimensional Progress Model
0 dimension – conflict among hunter/gatherer tribes
– stay away!
1st dimension – trade along natural routes – river
valleys, spice routes
2nd dimension – sailing ships, trains, automobiles
3rd dimension – air travel, air cargo
4th dimension – wired, electronic skin around the
world starting with the telegraph & telephone
Decreasing time between each dimension
Is there a 5th dimension?
Source: Brave New World – William Knoke
(recommended reading!)

5. A look in the rear-view mirror….
Where were you:
 December 31, 1999
 September 11, 2001
What’s happened since then?
Would you go back if you could?
What has disappeared in your lifetime
(telegraph, memos, telex)
What has appeared that you can’t do
without?

6. Scenarios – next 30 years:
Upward growth spiral: despite
terror, localized conflicts and business cycles, the
world marches forward, gaining momentum (as it has
since pre-historic time). Life better for most.
Worldwide stagnation: Innovation and
economies flatten after an amazing post WWII run.
Did the Boomers ruin it for everyone?)
Worldwide recession/depression: World
goes into an economic tailspin for an extended period
(the Great Depression of the 30’s) Almost got there
Doomsday: Armageddon, famine, war, the works
(Could a peak solar storm take us all back to the
stone age?)

7. The World at a crossroad
The US/world at war with terrorism
Deficit and austerity controls impact
Worldwide economic slowdown (recovery?)
Nagging unemployment – productivity/jobs
The Euro on the edge – end of entitlement?
What about China?
US housing major overhang
US the one super-power, but can’t do all
Global have’s and have-not’s – 99%/1%
Rumsfeld’s unknown unknowns

8. Intertwined worldwide issues
Energy Terrorism/security
Food/water Education
Health/disease Population growth
Global warming Aging populations
Pollution Religion
Languages Political
Trade blocks Standards
Intellectual property Paradoxes abound

9. Over-arching trends
Shrinking world (globalization/communications)
Rapid adoption for winners (Internet, cellular, DVD,
digital cameras)
Getting more from less (oil, silicon, acreage, E-Bay)
24 x 7 world - speeding up, information overload
English gaining as worldwide language
Power shifting to the individual - global middle class,
very hard to control information, spawning more
democratic governments
Contradictions abound – free/controlled, rich/poor,
fat/hungry, engaged/disenchanted

10. The Information Age:
Human Capital/Intellectual Property
Few physical resources needed – clean, high
paying jobs
Small groups can build global products
Small groups can destroy worldwide (virus)
Bits versus Atoms
 EFT versus cement blocks
 FaceBook versus the Post Office
Virtuous upward spirals when it all works

11. Business trends
Increased productivity & offshore outsourcing
Mass customization and localization
Merger of the titans, buy versus build
(United/Continental )
Innovation in small companies (hard!)
Intense drive to streamline and retool
operations - little complacency
Rapid product obsolescence
Economies of scale are a curse and blessing
Global companies bigger than countries

12. Technology trends
Digital convergence – data, voice, video
Internet/WWW ½ of world
Moore’s law marches on –
faster, better, cheaper –
chips, storage, & more
Wireless – all shapes and flavors
Open source software movement
Security an increasingly important trend

13. Internet trends
Great for publishing documents to people
E-Bay, Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter
No end in sight for global adoption
Wireless access – mobile information
Microbursts of information - social
XML (eXtensible Markup Language)
Still fragile, frustrating and immature –
groaning under the weight of success

14. Emerging technology today
Smartphones and tablets – wow!
Google glasses – heads up

15. The Next Big Thing (NBT)
Alters the course of mankind – significant impact
Difficult to predict and understand at the onset –
many times fits and starts before taking off
Generational deployment & incremental improvement
Early civilizations:
Fire, wheel, metal, agriculture, writing, numbers
Advancing civilizations:
gunpowder, compass, printing, interchangeable
parts, steam engine, bill of rights
Recent: Indoor
plumbing, medicine, electricity, automobile, airplane,
radio, telephone, television, computing
Collaboration and worldwide knowledge one reason
for accelerating pace

16. Nano-technology – NBT?
Really, really small
Simple - eat escaped oil in ocean
Complex - eat cholesterol from arteries of a
living being
Sensors – watch for individual cancer cells
Self replication – clone more of the same
Physics: Silicon stronger than steel at the
molecular level

17. The Hydrogen Economy–NBT?
Alternative to imported oil
Limitless supply
Ideal for fuel cells
Combustion by-product is water
Manufactured by extra electricity
passing through water
Massive infrastructure change required
Fixed buildings versus cars!

18. Biotechnology – NBT?
Non-human
 Genetically engineered crops – salt water rice, drought
resistant cotton
 Cloning and manipulation of animals/pets
 Potential to solve many of the world’s problems
 Fraught with regulation and protest
Human
 Genome mapping
 Cloning and stem cell research debates
 Genetic manipulation – cure cancer, AIDS, others
 Extended lifespan through lab based organ creation?
 “All my kingdom for a moment of time” - Queen Elizabeth

19. NBT Discussion
Additional candidates?
 Mind to network link – brain based Google
 Unmanned space exploration
 Ubiquitous wireless computing
Realistic? Barriers? Enablers?
Timeframe for implementation?
Impact on society?
Should there be a NBT X prize?

20. Parting Thoughts
What does all this mean to you?
What actions will you take?
 Ignore
 Invest
 Embrace
How do you manage the risks?
What about your great-grandkids?

21. Questions?
Reactions?
Pete.odell@swanisland.net