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Swiss-Belhotel Craig Rispin Keynote "How to Think Like a Futurist" - May 4, 2018


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Swiss-Belhotel Craig Rispin Keynote "How to Think Like a Futurist" - May 4, 2018

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Swiss-Belhotel Craig Rispin Keynote "How to Think Like a Futurist" - May 4, 2018

  1. 1. Everything You Just Saw Was Created 
 By Futurists…
  2. 2. Why think like a Futurist?
  3. 3. “The person who does not worry about the future will shortly have worries about the present.” Ancient Chinese Proverb
  4. 4. “Change is the law of life. And those who only look to the past or present are certain to miss the future.” President John F. Kennedy
  5. 5. PHOTOGRAPHER: DUNCAN COLE SOURCE: WWW.SAATCHIKEVIN.COM “Foresight and innovation are the only two things that can set you apart from your competition today.” Kevin Roberts, CEO of Saatchi & Saatchi
  6. 6. But most importantly, futurists help you think about your future…
  7. 7. “…for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives.” Criswell from Plan 9 From Outerspace
  8. 8. Tech Minority Report Predicted: Facial Recognition Personalised Advertising Gesture-Based User Interface Voice-Automated Homes Predictive Crime Fighting Driverless Cars Robotic Insects Jetpacks
  9. 9. Robotic Insects Source: Harvard
  10. 10. Jetpack
  11. 11. What is a Futurist?
  12. 12. “Futurists are reverse historians.”Craig Rispin “We try to peer over the horizon so we can make better decisions today. We analyze trends, anticipate significant changes and help people create preferable futures.”
  13. 13. Being a futurist is a real job...
  14. 14. You can get a degreein future studies. BA, MS or Ph.D. The formal study of the future has several names including Futures Studies, Foresight or Strategic Foresight. 15
  15. 15. P P Master of Technology in Futures Studies in Commerce
  16. 16. P P Master of Management (Strategic Foresight)
  17. 17. P Undergraduate and Graduate Degrees in Futures Studies
  18. 18. P Graduate Institute of Futures Studies
  19. 19. There are great professional associations…
  20. 20. Futurists advise...
  21. 21. Companies, governments, NGO’s, professional organizations, educational institutions, planning bodies, product designers, entrepreneurs, politicians...
  22. 22. “When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, those who make it happen, and those who wonder what happened.” John M. Richardson, Jr.
  23. 23. Great Futurists in History
  24. 24. There are many great futurists in history, such as Jules Verne, H.G. Wells, Arthur C. Clarke, Alvin and Heidi Toffler, Buckminster Fuller, Gordon Moore, Ray Kurzweil and Steve Jobs. This is not a complete list but they are a few of my personal favorites. Before companies and governments hired futurists, one of the only ways to make a living as a futurist was to become a science fiction writer. 41
  25. 25. Jules Verne 1828–1905 • The Father of Science Fiction. • Verne wrote about space, air and underwater travel long before they were invented. • He is the third most translated author of all time. • Many films have been based on his books. • He trained as a lawyer, like his father. • In 1848, he began writing plays. • Verne was introduced to Gaspard-Félix Tournachon (aka Felix Nadar) the first person to take aerial photography using a hot air balloon in 1858. Nader was probably the inspiration for Verne’s first book Five Weeks in a Balloon.
  27. 27. Verne’s lost novel Paris in the 21st Century • Written in 1863, first published in 1996 in English. • Discovered by Verne’s Great Grandson in a hidden safe in 1989. • In this book Verne predicted: gasoline-powered automobiles, high-speed trains, calculators, the Internet (a worldwide “telegraphic” network). • Verne also predicted a geometric, modern centerpiece built for the Louvre in Paris, defacing the classic architecture. Century44
  28. 28. Verne Quotes “Anything one man can imagine, other men can make real.” “Civilization never recedes; the law of necessity ever forces it onwards.”
  29. 29. H.G. Wells 1866–1946 • Herbert George Wells was a prolific writer of both fiction and non-fiction. He produced works in many genres, including contemporary novels, history and social commentary. • Only his early science fiction novels are widely read today. • In 1913, he wrote Little Wars the first miniaturized recreational war game. Being a pacifist he wanted to provide an alternative activity to real war as well as entertainment. Today he is known as “The Father of Miniature War Gaming”. • In 1932, on a BBC Radio broadcast, Wells called for the establishment of “Departments and Professors of Foresight”.
  30. 30. 47 Wells’ NOTABLE WORKS H.G.WELLS
  31. 31. H.G.Wells: Games&Simulation Game Simulation Today – Game Simulation Yesterday – Wells’ Little War
  32. 32. Wells Quotes “We were making the future and hardly any of us troubled to think what future we were making. And here it is!” “Adapt or perish, now as ever, is nature’s inexorable imperative.”
  33. 33. To think like a Futurist you need to think …
  34. 34. Global vs. Local Futurists consider worldwide trends while others focus on what is immediately around them. P My House
  35. 35. Advice: Focus on Global Trends in Your Industry
  36. 36. NPA Worldwide
  37. 37. Long-Term vs. Short-Term Futurists look forward 10, 20, 50 or even 100 years. Most business people focus on the next quarter or annual result.
  38. 38. What’s Average Time Most People Dedicate to Longterm Planning?
  39. 39. Trends vs. News Futurists draw connections and plot trend lines from a large cross-section of news sources. Traditional thinkers get their news from a few familiar sources and do not often see connections or trends.
  40. 40. Advice: Curated Your Media Consumption - Use Flipboard to Find & Filter
  41. 41.
  42. 42. Cross Industry vs. Industry Specific My Industry Futurists ‘cross-pollinate’ ideas from multiple industries, while traditional business people tend to focus their attention in their industry only.
  43. 43. Advice: Curate Connections in Other Industries, Find Solutions From Outside Your Industry
  44. 44. Connected vs.Isolated Futurists are connected to global networks of thinkers and experts. Many CEOs say they feel they are very isolated and find it hard to discuss issues with other people.
  45. 45. Advice: Quickly Check See Search Terms Trends
  46. 46. Multiple Futures vs.One Future Futurists look to the possibility of multiple outcomes or futures, while most people concentrate on one goal or one possible future.
  47. 47. Advice: Rapid Feedback Loops - Read the Sprint Book
  48. 48. Futurists use the STEEP model to look at all areas of change (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic and Political). Most others only focus on changes in the economy. Political Social TechnologicalEnvironmental Economic MultipleTrendDrivers vs. Economic Drivers
  49. 49. Futurists employ vision and help others develop it. Tactics are short- term goals based on actions typically less than one year out.Vision vs.Tactics
  50. 50. Big Picture vs. Micro Detail Futurists step back to take in the whole context, while many people get caught up in overwhelming details.
  51. 51. A sampling of the most popular… Futurist Tools &Techniques
  52. 52. Environmental Scanning is the systematic process of collecting information to help an organization see the forces affecting them. Basically the process helps them open their eyes to new trends, driving forces, opportunities and threats. In past decades, futurists would employ teams of mostly undergraduate students to clip articles from newspapers, trade publications and professional periodicals. By measuring the number of ‘column inches’ allocated to a given topic one could see if something was trending up or down in interest and/or importance. Modern technologies have eliminated the need for a large staff. The following tools can help you set up your own environmental scanning system. Environmental Scanning1
  53. 53. Environmental ScanningWebsites like these can help you keep up your scanning …
  54. 54. Scenario Planning Scenario Planning is probably the second most popular tool used by futurists. A scenario is not a specific forecast of the future, but a description of what might possibly happen. It helps articulate probable future events that may affect an organization or its operating environment. Scenarios are stories carefully constructed based on trends and events. Trends are often plotted on a quadrant and four scenarios are developed from a range of probabilities. The term scenario planning was introduced by Herman Kahn in connection with military and strategic studies done by RAND in the 1950s. Scenario planning was made popular in the corporate arena by Royal Dutch/Shell in the 1970s. 2
  55. 55. Scenario Planning Recommended reading for Scenario Planning Wired’s Article on Scenarios — The Future of Ideas Scenario Quadrants BalanceofPower Corporations Consultants-Land Meme-World Corporat-istan Network-Cities Idea Ownership Free Idea Ownership Proprietary BalanceofPower Individuals
  56. 56. “Futurism is an art of re-perception. It means recognizing that life will change, must change and has changed, and it suggests how and why. It shows that old perceptions have lost their validity, while new ones are possible.” Bruce Sterling, Sci-Fi Author & Futurist
  57. 57. I hope I’ve helped you think like a futurist … “Don’t just let the future happen to you— go and create your ideal future!” Craig Rispin