Hawaii International Conference on Systems Science CompleXity Symposium

Hawaii International Conference on Systems Science
CompleXity Symposium - 5 January 2016
Mark Dixon – Executive Architect – Smarter Cities Solutions - IBM Analytics
platypus0@us.ibm.com / markdixon25@gmail.com
Enthralled by the Immediate
Why humans have not adopted Smarter Cities technologies faster
A Biological Perspective

2
Disclaimer
The ideas and assertions presented herein are mine and mine
alone. They should not be construed to be the opinions of the
organization by whom I am employed.
I have attempted, in good faith, to perform due diligence in
“fact-checking” all relevant information provided in this
presentation.
That said, please remember:
You are entitled to your own opinions and/or beliefs....
...but not your own facts.
Admonish: To urge (someone) to do something; an opinion suggesting a wise
or proper course of action; the act of telling beforehand of danger or risk.
- Merriam Webster Dictionary and Thesaurus

3
Themes
“Every great architect is -- necessarily -- a great poet. He must be a great
original interpreter of his time, his day, his age.”
“The architect must be a prophet . . . if he can't see at least ten years ahead,
then don’t call him an architect.”
– Frank Lloyd Wright
“The interest of the man must be connected with the constitutional rights of
the place...But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflection on
human nature? If men were angels, no government would be necessary.
– James Madison
“Humanity is a biological species in a biological world...we are exquisitely
well adapted to live on this particular planet. Although exalted in many ways,
we remain an animal species of the global fauna.”
– Edward O. Wilson

4
Agenda
●
Historical Perspectives
●
21st
Century Challenges
●
Governance SitRep
●
Enthralled by the
Immediate
●
Going Forward...

5
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
» - George Santayana

6
Historical Perspectives...
50 years of Science Fiction

7
More recent and esoteric works...
3d-printers – replication
2000
First description of cyberspace
2003
Virtual collaboration and avatars
1991

8
Machine Intelligence...
50 / 70 years ago... 4 years ago...

9
Personal Communication Devices
87 years ago... 3 year ago...50 years ago...

10
Recycling
Recycling wastewater
”...communities across the state, including
Sonoma Valley, are turning rivers of raw sewage
into clean water...[its] certified organic”
Circa 1973... Circa 2011...
SONOMASONOMA

11
Disease Vectors
50 years ago... 6 years ago...

12
Obesity
1990 2000 2010
http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/adult.html
A Sofalarity, not a Singularity...

13
Popular Culture: Dystopian views...more prevalent?
“The Lottery”
by Shirley Jackson - 1948
“The Most
Dangerous Game”
by Richard Connell - 1924

14
The Ancient Greek Perspective...
“Those who cannot remember [understand]
the past are condemned to repeat it.”
» - George Santayana
1974
Our Past is laid
out before us...
...and our Future
is rushing up
from behind.

15
A view from Harvard and MIT
“We have created a Star Wars civilization, with Stone Age emotions,
medieval institutions, and god-like technology...We are terribly
confused by the mere fact of our existence, and a danger to ourselves
and to the rest of life.”
•
» – Edward O. Wilson
“...it appears that much of the preparation nature has invested in
us...is failing us. Our neuroanatomy is tuned to respond to
sudden, dramatic changes in our environment...We focus on
immediate needs and problems, and are trapped by the illusion
that what is most tangible is most real. We’ve been conditioned
for thousands of years to identify with our family, our tribe, and
our local social structures. A future that asks us to overcome this
conditioning and identify with all of humankind looks alien
indeed."
» – Peter M. Senge

16
Num...me vexo?

17
Agenda
●
●
21st
Century Challenges
●
Enthralled by the
Immediate
●
Governance SitRep
●
Going Forward...

18
21st
Century Challenges
Context is key...Pop Quiz!
“ 'What the hell is a millisecond?'...
Light in a vacuum travels at 186 miles a millisecond...Physics is physics”.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/06/magazine/flash-boys-michael-lewis.html
How long did it take George Washington to find out he had been elected POTUS?
Now
8
seconds
Then
8
days

19
21st
Century Challenges
Human population growth: AD 0 to 2050
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/numb-nf.html
AD 0: 300 million

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21st
Century Challenges
AD 1000: 310 million

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21st
Century Challenges
AD 1800: 1 billion

22
21st
Century Challenges
AD 1927: 2 billion

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21st
Century Challenges
AD 1960: 3 billion

24
21st
Century Challenges
AD 1974: 4 billion

25
21st
Century Challenges
AD 1987: 5 billion

26
21st
Century Challenges
AD 1999 : 6 billion

27
21st
Century Challenges
AD 2050 : 9 billion

28
21st
Century Challenges
Human Migration Timeline
Image source: http://www.utexas.edu/features/2007/ancestry/graphics/ancestry5_medium.jpg
Pre-Humans – 2,000,000 years ago
Archaic Humans – 500,000 years ago
200,000 yrs ago 100,000 yrs ago Present
Anatomically
Modern
Humans
Behaviorally
Modern
Humans
50,000 yrs ago
Settlements
Agriculture
Cities

29
21st
Century Challenges
Homo Sapiens Sapiens: The ultimate invasive species?
"I think computer
viruses should count
as life. I think it says
something about
human nature that the
only form of life we
have created so far is
purely destructive.
We've created life in
our own image."
- Stephen
Hawking
Man is the most
insane species. We
worship an invisible
God and slaughter a
visible Nature
without realizing that
this Nature is the
invisible God we
worship.
- Hubert
Reeves

30
21st
Century Challenges
Human population and the Keeling Curve (ppm CO2
)
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/7990

31
21st
Century Challenges
ppm CO2
: 800,000 year history
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/7990

32
21st
Century Challenges
The roots of Climate Change Science are almost 200 years old
Joseph Fourier
(heat analytics)
Circa early-1800s
John Tyndall
(infrared radiation/air)
Circa mid-1800s
Svante Arrhenius
(greenhouse effect)
Circa late-1800s
this is cutting-edge 19th century science that we’re now refining.”
“...this is cutting-edge 19th century science that we’re now refining.”
- Rear Admiral David W. Titley (Ret.)
Former Oceanographer and Navigator of the US Navy

33
21st
Century Challenges
Climate Change
"Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide"
J. Hansen, D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G.
Russell, Science, vol. 213, 1981, pp. 957-966.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh and Rein Haarsma
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI) April 2012

34
21st
Century Challenges
Limits to Growth
1972
2002
2052

35
21st
Century Challenges
Think? Or believe?
http://environment.yale.edu/poe/v2014/

36
21st
Century Challenges
A few good people...
“You can't handle the truth!”
“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful people can change the
world. Indeed, it's the only thing that ever has...”
- Margaret Mead

37
21st
Century Challenges
Sidebar: Science, Biomimicry and Philosophy
Physics Infrastructure
Chemistry
Biology
Platform
Software
ProcessLife
Digital Building BlocksNatural Building Blocks
Sapience Cognitive
Inorganic
Patterns
Organic
Patterns
Biological
Patterns
Social
Patterns
MoQ Building Blocks
Ethical
Patterns
Awareness/Nirvana/Bliss
http://www.moq.org/forum/mcwatt/anthony.html and http://www.quantonics.com/Anthony_McWatts_MoQ_Paper.html

38
Agenda
●
●
21st
Century Challenges
●
Enthralled by the
Immediate
●
Governance SitRep
●
Going Forward...

39
Dilbert said it on the internet, so it must be true...
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/109880240641/sciences-biggest-fail
...I’m on the side that says climate change, for example, is pretty much
what science says it is because the scientific consensus is high. But I
realize half of my fellow-citizens disagree, based on pattern recognition.”
“We humans operate on pattern recognition...

40
“[The] Great Recession was something much more important.
It was our wake-up heart attack.”
» – Thomas Friedman
“Never let a good crisis go to waste.” – Winston Churchill

41
”Its fractals, all the way down...”
Apologies to Ted Giesel and Benoit Mandelbrot...

42
Neuroanatomical Architecture
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23036719
http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/01/22/let-us-take-a-walk-in-the-brain-my-cover-story-for-national-geographic/

43
Power Law Scaling in Human Brain Networks (Cities scale, too)
Broadband Criticality of Human Brain Network Synchronization - http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pcbi.1000314
Systems in a critical state are poised
on the cusp of a transition between
ordered and random behavior. At this
point, they demonstrate complex
patterning of fluctuations at all scales
of space and time. Criticality is an
attractive model for brain dynamics
because it optimizes information
transfer, storage capacity, and
sensitivity to external stimuli in
computational models.
We confirmed that both synchron-
ization metrics demonstrated scale
invariant behaviors in two compu-
tational models of critical dynamics as
well as in human brain functional
systems oscillating at low frequencies
(,0.5 Hz, measured using functional
MRI) and at higher frequencies
(1–125 Hz, measured using
magnetoencephalography).
We conclude that human brain
functional networks demonstrate
critical dynamics in all frequency
intervals, a phenomenon we have
described as broadband criticality.

44
Neuroanatomical architecture artifacts
Human Phobias - Irrational fears
Primitive Reflexes – your “lizard brain” at work
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_phobias
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_reflexes

45
Biological Programming – Human Phobias
What is the #1 human phobia in the world?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dangerous_snakes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_mamba
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inland_taipan

46
https://www.livescience.com/13434-phobias-fears-acrophobia-heights-agoraphobia-arachnophobia.html

47
https://en.wikipedia.org/
"Cumulus Clouds over Yellow Prairie2" by Wing-Chi Poon. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.5 via Commons -
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cumulus_Clouds_over_Yellow_Prairie2.jpg#/media/File:Cumulus_Clouds_over_Yellow_Prairie2.jpg

48
US THEM

49
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear_of_falling
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visual_cliff

50
Do blank black screen next and kill all the lights...

51
Biological Programming – Primitive Reflexes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moro_reflex
https://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/images/ency/fullsize/17269.jpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_lAFst43TE
The Moro Reflex – birth to 3-6 months

52
Palmar Grasp Reflex – 16 weeks (in utero) to 6 months
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palmar_grasp_reflex
http://originsofmotherhood.com/images/Got_You_Daddy.jpg

53
Hypnic Jerk Reflex – lifetime
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypnic_jerk
http://www.knowledge.info/sites/default/files/images/1/hypnic-Jerk.jpg

54
Pilomotor vestigal reflex (goose bumps) – lifetime
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goose_bumps
http://www.personal.psu.edu/afr3/blogs/SIOW/520905761_44867e4caa.jpg
http://www.awf.org/sites/default/files/media/gallery/wildlife/Porcupine/Porcupine4.jpg

55
Biological Programming – Dunbar's Number
Dunbar's number is a suggested cognitive limit to the number of people with whom one can
maintain stable social relationships. These are relationships in which an individual knows
who each person is and how each person relates to every other person. Numbers larger
than this generally require more restrictive rules, laws, and enforced norms to maintain a
stable, cohesive group.
●
Species-specific index of social group size (mean neocortical volume)
●
Correlation from non-human primates to predict human group size
●
Human "mean group size" of 148 (regression equation)
●
Large error measure (a 95% confidence interval of 100 to 230)
●
Hunter-gatherer groups
●
Small – bands – 30-50 people
●
Medium – groups – 100-200 people
●
Large – tribes – 500-2,500 people
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunbar's_number

56
Biological Programming – Dunbar's Number – W.L. Gore
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._L._Gore_and_Associates
●
Gore is a team-based, flat lattice organization that fosters personal initiative.
There are no traditional organizational charts, no chains of command, nor
predetermined channels of communication.
●
Gore is one of the 200 largest privately held U.S. companies
●
2014 was the 3rd consecutive year for World’s Best Multinational Workplaces
●
For the 18th consecutive year, Gore earned a position on the FORTUNE 100
Best Companies to Work For® list in 2015. Gore ranked 17th overall.
●
Gore has also been named one of the best workplaces in France, Germany,
Italy, Korea, Sweden, and the UK. And in 2013, for the first time, Gore was
named one of the best workplaces in China.
●
More than 35 million innovative Gore Medical Devices have been implanted,
saving and improving the quality of lives worldwide.
●
Gore has been granted more than 2,000 patents worldwide in a wide range of
fields
●
Virtually all of Gore's products are based on just one material, a versatile
polymer called ePTFE (expanded polytetrafluoroethylene)
●
$3 billion in annual sales and more than 10,000 associates worldwide, the
company is owned by members of the Gore family and associates. Gore
prefers this private ownership and believes this reinforces a key element of its
culture to “take a long term view” when assessing business situations.
10,000 associates / 50 locations = 200 per location

57
Biological Programming – Top Ten Dream Themes
1. Being chased and attacked / Being in love or embraced
2. Getting injured or dying / Getting healed or reborn
3. Abandonment (car trouble) or social outcast
4. Destroyed, damaged or lost property or on(fire) / Property improvements
5. Poor performance / Outstanding performance
6. Falling or drowning / Flying or swimming
7. Being naked or inappropriately dressed / Looking great
8. Missing transportation / Happily traveling
9. Machine malfunctions / No malfunctions
10. Natural disasters / Natural beauty
http://psychcentral.com/blog/archives/2011/10/17/uncovering-your-dreams-12-universal-themes
http://health.howstuffworks.com/mental-health/sleep/dreams/20-universal-dream-themes.htm

58
Agenda
●
●
21st
Century Challenges
●
Enthralled by the
Immediate
●
Governance SitRep
●
Going Forward...

59
Situation Report
The Box...
If you're thinking outside the box, you're still in the box!
- Jon Fullinwider
(Ex-CIO Los Angeles and San Diego Counties)

60
Situation Report
Boxed In...
Historical trends return...
The good ol' days will
come back...
“Old Normal” “New Normal”
Government is challenged
to redefine itself to become
more efficient and cost
effective
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used to create them...” – Einstein

61
Situation Report
The only Box we have...
Source: National Geographic Society – “State of the Earth: 2010”
There are
now about
7 Billion
people on
our planet...
“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibbons

62
Situation Report
Our Inefficient Box...up to $15 Trillion wasted annually
How to read the chart:
As an example, the Healthcare
system‘s value is $4,270B. It carries
an estimated inefficiency of 42%. From
that level of 42% inefficiency,
economists estimate that ~34% can be
eliminated (= 34% x 42%).
We now have the capabilities to
manage a system-of-systems
planet...
Source: IBM economists survey 2009; n= 480 (*Estimate) – Chart shows “systems”, not “industries.
System inefficiency as % of total
economic value
Improvementpotentialas
%ofsysteminefficiency
Analysis of inefficiencies in the
...of which $4 Trillion could be eliminated*...
System-of-
systems
$54 Trillion
100% of WW 2008
GDP
Improvement
potential
$4 Trillion
7% of WW 2008
GDP
Inefficiencies
$15 Trillion
28% of WW 2008
GDP
Global economic value of:

63
Situation Report
The “unique” American Box...
“The Eternal Frontier” - An Ecological History of North America
– Isolation: Both a Blessing and a Curse
– Geographic Isolation – a temperate zone between oceans, ice cap and isthmus
– Biological Isolation – native vs. invasive species – flora, fauna and human
– Political Isolation – freedom to start over – greenfield approach
Manifest Destiny – Westward Expansion
– Geographic Enablers and Constraints - Rivers, Mountains, Deserts
– Conestoga Wagons and the Transcontinental Railroad
– Pony Express vs. the telegraph
– Cowboys and Immigrants – a “grass is greener” mentality
• Local Government Topologies – Distance to the County Seat
– 200+ years ago – Eastern seaboard – one day's walk
– 100+ years ago – Western Expansion – one day's ride (horse or buggy)
– Today – almost irrelevant!
• Human Scale vs Global Scale in the US Local Government
– Digital Infrastructure mapped to archaic Physical Infrastructure
– Unsustainable (resource consumption) and non-competitive (world economy)
Geographical and Political Evolution of Local Government Structures

64
Situation Report
Our Local Government Box...2007 Census of Governments
“Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper
# of Local Governments by County (darker is denser)
89,47689,476

65
Situation Report
50% of the US population lives in 146 counties...
http://www.businessinsider.com/half-of-the-united-states-lives-in-these-counties-2013-9 (Data: US Census Bureau)

66
Situation Report
Boxed in: States can hold cities back...budget dependence...
http://nextcity.org/daily/entry/state-control-city-tax-spend-fiscal-growth

67
Situation Report
Our Future Boxes...Megapolitan America
“This is an extraordinary book. It completely and--in my largely lay judgment--correctly reorients our thinking about where
our cities and communities are going both physically and in terms of actual living. What an extraordinary contribution to our
thinking on these issues. This should be required reading--and I rarely say that--for every governor, mayor, legislator, city
council member, Chamber of Commerce member, and, indeed, citizen!”
--Michael K. Young, President, University of Washington

USA population projected to be 400 million by 2040

23 megapolitan areas

dominate the nation's economy by 2050

18 percent of the contiguous 48 states' land base

more densely settled than Europe as a whole

Common characteristics

Economic

Landscape

Social

Cultural

Will change how America plans...
Map source: www.america2050.org

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No plans...No blueprints...No architecture...a maintenance nightmare!
• 160 rooms
• 2 ballrooms
• 40 bedrooms
• 6 kitchens
• 2 basements
• 47 fireplaces
• 17 chimneys
• 38 years
• $5.5M
• 1257 windows
• 467 doors
• 52 skylights
• 40 staircases
• 367 steps
Staircase to Ceiling
Circular Staircase
Situation Report
The Box we have built...

69
Situation Report
Current Trends: Information Technology - CAMSS

70
Situation Report
Challenges to Service Delivery
●
Physical Infrastructure
●
2009 ASCE: Grade of “D”
●
$157 Billion/yr needed to 2020
●
$3.1 Trillion in lost productivity – 3.5M jobs
●
Digital Infrastructure
●
The World Economic Forum ranked the US
35th out of 148 countries in Internet bandwidth
●
150Mbps for $130/month - Verizon FiOS in NYC
●
Elsewhere in world - $50-$77/month
●
Underfunded Pensions
●
Cities face $217 Billion gap (61 over 500K)
●
States face $1.38 Trillion Shortfall
●
“The Charitable-Industrial Complex”
●
Peter Buffett OpEd NYTimes

71
Situation Report
The Great Regression
The Great Regression - http://www.cnbc.com/id/44876150
Danger to our physical and economic well-being
2009 I-5 Skagit River bridge in WA – 3 injured
2007 I-35W bridge in Minneapolis - 13 dead and 145 injured
Surface Transportation - $752 Billion by 2020
25% of bridges are structurally deficient or obsolete
4,000 dams are in need of repair
Port of LA - 39K truck trips daily due to insufficient freight rail
Electricity - $107 Billion by 2020
Windstorm – 3.8M people in Mid-Atlantic states - 2012
Equipment – 5M people in SoCal and AZ - 2011
Cold weather – 1M people in Texas - 2011
Water - $84 Billion by 2020
Ports and Waterways - $34 Billion by 2020

72
Situation Report
“Keeping the lights burning and the screws turning”
“Keeping the lights on” or “putting out fires,” whatever tends to dominate
the CIO’s work schedule.
NASCIO CIO survey:
33% say they spend 90% of time keeping the lights on.
40+% say they spend 75% of time on maintenance
50% say they spend 25% of time or less on “innovation”
30 percent said they spend just 5 % or less of time on “innovation”
http://www.govtech.com/management/7-Ways-to-Innovate-Government-IT.html

73
Situation Report
Current State of Digital Affairs...
http://washingtontechnology.com/articles/2014/02/10/meritalk-report.aspx
●
State, local agencies want better efficiency but face infrastructure challenges
●
94% are “unprepared” for the changes
●
89% need additional network capacity to maintain current service levels
●
59% indicated security risks
●
55% called out bandwidth limitations and 44% called out storage limitations
Yet...
●
72% would derive benefits from increase efficiencies
●
59% want more shared “best practices”
●
58% want better decision making
But...
●
52% said senior leadership does not understand the impact

74
Agenda
●
●
21st
Century Challenges
●
Governance SitRep
●
Enthralled by the
Immediate
●
Going Forward...

75
Going forward
“The best way to predict the future is to create/invent it.”
» – Moliere/Kay
“Gentlemen, we have run out of money. Now we have to think.”
– Winston Churchill
“You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change
something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”
» – R. Buckminster Fuller

76
Going Forward
The Territory Ahead...
“I was a-trembling, because I'd got to decide, forever, betwixt two
things, and I knowed it. I studied a minute, sort of holding my
breath, and then says to myself: "All right, then, I'll GO to hell."
“...I reckon I got to light out for the territory ahead of the rest,
because...she’s going to...sivilize me, and I can’t stand it.
I been there before.”
- Huckleberry Finn

77
Going Forward
Two inter-related concepts
Smarter Local Government:
Regional clouds for operational systems
Open-source IT infrastructure and applications
Data is created every second of every minute of every hour; we now create 2.5 quintillion bytes of
data per year. That is 2,500,000,000,000,000,000 bits of information.
http://www.businessofgovernment.org/sites/default/files/Realizing the Promise of Big Data.pdf
Cognitive Digital Democracy:
Gaming, Simulation, Modeling (off-shift)
XMILE: OASIS Standard for System Dynamics

78
Going Forward
Cognitive Digital Democracy: Trust issues...
http://insights-on-business.com/government/does-more-open-equate-to-greater-trust-in-government-not-necessarily
General Trust vs Trust in Government

79
Going Forward
Cognitive Digital Democracy: Open Data and Trust in Government
http://insights-on-business.com/government/does-more-open-equate-to-greater-trust-in-government-not-necessarily

80
Going Forward
Lessons from the crowdsourced law reform in Finland
1) People participate in a constructive way
2) The crowd is not delusional about potential impact on the law
3) Crowdsourcing creates learning moments
4) Crowdsourcing as knowledge search
5) The crowd is smart
6) Minority voices were not lost
http://www.businessofgovernment.org/sites/default/files/Realizing the Promise of Big Data.pdf

81
Going Forward
Science...
https://mitpress.mit.edu/search/mitpress_search/michael%20batty
http://discovermagazine.com/2012/oct/21-geoffrey-west-finds-physical-laws-in-cities
http://www.pnas.org/content/104/17/7301.abstract
Walking Speed/Size
Mammalian Heart Rate/Size

82
Going Forward
New Architecture for Smart Cities: Dr. Rick Robinson
http://theurbantechnologist.com/2012/09/26/the-new-architecture-of-smart-cities/

83
Going Forward
Government as a platform...
http://techcrunch.com/2014/02/13/please-dont-tell-me-you-want-to-be-the-next-red-hat/
“The winning open source model turns open source 1.0 on its head. By packaging open
source into a service...companies can monetize open source with a far more robust and
flexible model, encouraging innovation, and on-going investment in software development...
...Build a big business on top of and around a successful platform by adding something of your
own that is both substantial and differentiated. Take, for example, our national road and
highway system. If you view it as the transportation platform, you start to see the host of highly
differentiated businesses that have been built on top of it, ranging from FedEx to Tesla.”

84
Going Forward
Enthralled by the immediate
“...we fail to see the systemic issues because we define urgency by
what is immediate. We are victims of a self-reinforcing crisis of
perception – a crisis of our own making. If it persists, we doom
ourselves to continued passivity.
Only catastrophe will compel action, which, given the growing social
divide that distributes problems like global warming unevenly
between rich and poor, is likely to manifest as social and political
disruption – not unlike what we are already seeing around the
world.
...nothing short of a profound shift in the Western, materialistic
worldview is likely to dislodge this crisis of perception.”
- Peter M. Senge
MIT Professor of Leadership

85
Going Forward
”Takin' on the jellies...you got serious thrill issues, dude!”
The Digital Druid's recommendation / challenge:
Build a cross-discipline, multi-semester course for Smarter Cities
•
Business
Computer Science and Engineering
Public Policy
Environment / Urban Planning / Architecture
http://facultybio.haas.berkeley.edu/faculty-list/darwin-solomon

86
Going Forward
Seventh Generation...the Great Law of the Iroquois

Hawaii International Conference on Systems Science
CompleXity Symposium - 5 January 2016
platypus0@us.ibm.com
markdixon25@gmail.com
@DigitalDruid0
thedigitaldruid.org

88
The Way Forward
Enthralled by the immediate: The 5 Stages of Climate Grief
http://ntsg.umt.edu/files/5StagesClimateGrief.htm

89
Cranial Architecture Artifacts
Moro (Startle) Reflex – Birth to 2 months
Palmar Grasp Reflex – Birth to 6 months
Hypnic Jerk Reflex – lifetime (Goose Bumps)
Fear of Snakes – #1 phobia
Fear of Spiders – #2 phobia
Fear of Spaces – #3 phobia
Fear of Humans – #4 phobia
Fear of Falling – #5 phobia – The “Visual Cliff” experiment
Fear of the Dark – #6 phobia

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Fear of Snakes – #1 phobia
Fear of Spiders – #2 phobia
Fear of Spaces – #3 phobia
Fear of Humans – #4 phobia
Fear of Falling – #5 phobia – The “Visual Cliff” experiment
Fear of the Dark – #6 phobia
http://www.fearof.net/
http://www.everydayhealth.com/emotional-health/anxiety-pictures/8-common-phobias.aspx#01
http://www.everydayhealth.com/emotional-health/anxiety-pictures/8-common-phobias.aspx#01
http://www.livescience.com/13434-phobias-fears-acrophobia-heights-agoraphobia-arachnophobia.html

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Bibliography and Notes
http://www.fastcoexist.com/3026048/visualized/see-how-climate-change-is-warming-things-up-where-you-live
http://www.fastcoexist.com/3025392/watch-60-years-of-climate-change-in-15-seconds
http://www.asce.org/failuretoact/
http://www.asce.org/Infrastructure/Report-Card/State-and-Local-Report-Cards/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/02/18/billionaire-plans-100-million-campaign-for-democrats/
http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/StateMiddleClassPolicies-Ch7.pdf
http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2012/12/13-infrastructure-bank-galston-davis
http://www.pewstates.org/research/reports/the-widening-gap-update-85899398241
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/us/how-local-taxpayers-bankroll-corporations.html
http://www.pewstates.org/news-room/press-releases/pew-study-finds-61-cities-retirement-systems-face-217-billion-gap-858994426
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http://www.pewstates.org/research/data-visualizations/the-widening-gap-85899377237
http://goodjobsfirst.org/
www.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/us/how-local-taxpayers-bankroll-corporations.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/12/01/us/government-incentives.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/30/technology/us-struggling-to-keep-pace-in-broadband-service.html
http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2013-14.pdf
http://arstechnica.com/business/2013/10/cheapest-150mbps-broadband-in-big-us-cities-costs-100-more-than-overseas/
http://oti.newamerica.net/publications/policy/the_cost_of_connectivity_2013
X
X

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Democracy for a new millennium
http://iamnotanumber.org/d21/how/rules-voting.html
What do we want? Finding out the People's demands. (Ref: p1601)
Some of the difficulty with our present institutions rests on the problem of electing a government whose job is to govern, but whose mandate is settled by one vote
every few years by an electorate who usually have only two packages of policies to choose from.
This whole concept invites a great deal more participation by the People and its efficiency in reflecting the general wish is directly proportional to how much
participation there is. It also allows for non-participation to be a choice. It could be argued that people do not want all this effort but I contend this would change as
soon as the new system reveals that participation actually matters, whereas today it is increasingly felt that it does not matter. Additionally the operation of the
process is not hindered or degraded by a low degree of participation. Low participation affects the degree to which the picture is true and complete, as it does in
today's system. This new system is based on continuous appraisal of what the People want and how those wishes are being implemented.
Each function of government is self-contained so there is no overall control, and eventually no monolithic government at all. Each function has three parts :
A continuous assessment of what the People want.
The implementing civil servants, split into two groups, a large one to do the work, a smaller one to be Devil's Advocates.
The monitoring function which watches how well the people's wishes are being carried out.
The wishes of the People, which the government is duty and legally bound to attempt to satisfy, are to be continuously and continually expressed. This is to be
achieved by means of voting mechanisms set up to be accessible to all via the Internet. Every government department and function will have any number of votes
and polls running simultaneously through which the People would inform the government of its demands. Access to these facilities would be made available freely
any time and free of any kind of charge so that maximum participation can be encouraged and achieved. Access would be enabled via home computers, public
terminals, mobile phones, any internet connected computer system and through a government interactive television station. If specialised equipment is necessary
to enable access from home via television then this would be supplied at a nominal price, but not free as access to democracy should require explicit, deliberate,
conscious input. All eligible voters would be allocated an id and password for voting purposes. Voting would be via 'government' web sites, at least one for each
department or function. An attempt to vote would result in a validation of id by means of a database which tracks only which ids have voted on which issues. The
vote itself, once approved, would be totally secret.
(Ref: p1602)
Votes and polls will be of several kinds :
One-off votes with a discrete and final yes or no answer.(1190)
One-off votes with discrete yes or no answers where one or more changes of vote are permitted until a deadline when a vote closes finally.
Single questions with multiple choice answers.
Single questions with multiple choice answers where one or more changes of vote are permitted until a deadline when a vote closes finally.
Polls, with a closing date, where the purpose is to establish a ranking, the voters deciding from a list which are more and which are less important or urgent.
Polls, with a closing date, where the purpose is to establish from a list whether an entry should or should not be on the list.
Polls, which establish rankings or presence on a list, which run effectively forever, closing if at all at some time to be determined at some later date.
Polls which establish rankings within a pre-defined list of say ten entries.
A special category of vote which is one-off, final and instantly legally binding on the government.
(Ref: p1603)
replied to, publicly, by the Monitoring department immediately it occurs.

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To make the system safe against fraud, hacking, spoofing and negative feedback there would be restraints on numbers and timings of vote castings, each of these being stated
when the vote or poll is set up. Single votes would be final and irrevocable, like today's X on a ballot paper. Changes of votes would be constrained by a combination of frequency
limits such as once per hour, per day or per month and total change limits such as only one change of mind, only ten changes of mind per month. Polls measuring rankings would
take into account total numbers of voters and total numbers of vote changes. Polls and votes would display both real-time and batch statistics about themselves. Polls measuring
rankings would explicitly take into account the bottom of the rankings as well as the top, establishing continuous weightings. Polls measuring rankings would have built into them
time delays such that today's final view only becomes a 'legal' fact after say a week or a month.
Any decision or opinion on which the public is consulted would be available for inspection via another web site where all current and past votes and polls would be posted with all
their statistics. In addition to statistics presented by default there would be analytical functions available on each site to enable any viewer with the right style of connection to
conduct their own analysis of the figures.
(Ref: p1604)
Except in the special case noted above, votes and polls would all be non-binding, their function only to record the People's wishes. This is deliberate and necessary. Those doing
'government' must be put under pressure but not forced. If the People decide that one of their 'wishes' should indeed be, or now become, a direct order then a 'special case' of a
binding vote is available for implementation. But this should be a great exception not a default and should therefore demand much more effort by all concerned to put into effect.
The executive department would 'govern', making decisions that will be implemented, using the votes and polls as guidelines for what to do. The monitoring department would
cross-check what is actually done against what the People asked for. The monitoring department also has a website on which the People can register approval or disapproval.
When either people or the People or the department decides something is unsatisfactory they can demand a review of any matter.
The system should prevent undesirable feedback in voting processes but there are two features which will mitigate the consequences of such feedback or runaway effects if
somehow they do occur anyway. One, the executive department does have the option of refusing to implement or support the wishes of the People, but can only do this with
complete disclosure of the reasoning behind doing so. Second, the exact methods by which voting and polling occur, on every individual vote and poll, will be published before
and during the vote or poll, on the web site conducting the vote or poll. This will enable anyone anywhere anytime to argue that the methods and algorithms are incorrect, illogical,
mathematically unsound, wrong, unsafe, fallible, unjust, biased or in some other way unsatisfactory. A challenge to a vote or poll would be replied to, publicly, by the Monitoring
department immediately it occurs. No vote or poll would have legitimacy until outstanding challenges have been answered, if necessary by a court.

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