It is two years since we started taking the emotional temperature of Ireland's recession. This month we report on progress towards an emotional recovery alongside economic recovery.

1. The Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
April 2011 Results
© Amárach Research 2009

2. 2
The Emotional Recovery
• We have been reporting our monthly
Recovery Indicator since April 2009.
• We set out two years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery
alongside our ‘economic progress’.
• Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
• But we are still in recession – and the path to
recovery still lies some way ahead.
• The next two years should nevertheless see us
make real progress along the path.

3. 3
Timing Recovery
• All recessions end in recovery –
so will this one.
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs • The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
when do we know the recession is over and
recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely.
• This report summarises the AIB-Amárach
Recovery Indicator results from April 2009
(when it began) to April 2011.
• The fieldwork was conducted during the period
11th-17th April 2011 inclusive.

4. 4
A Matter of Measurement
• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

5. 5
A Matter of Measurement
• There was little change in sentiment in April 2011 on the previous month:
Mar’11 0% Apr’11 1%
Mar’11 2% Apr’11 2%
Mar‘11 48% Apr‘11 51% Mar’11 20% Apr’11 19%
Mar’11 30% Apr’11 27%

6. 6
AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100
(0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• In April 2011, the Indicator remained stable, well above November’s low point.
30
27.1 26
25 25.3 24
22.723.8 23.8
23.5
20 19.6 19.2 19.2
18.4 17.818.3 18.2
17.8 17 17.318
16.3
15 15
12
10
8.3
7.3
5
0
Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
'09 '10 '11

7. 7
Recovery Outlook 1
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time:
% agree strongly/slightly
52% 42%
41%43% 39%
48% 41% 42% 43% 42%42%
41%44% 42%43%46% 31% 23%26%24%25%
24%
34% 26% 18%
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
Jun
Sept
Feb
Sept
Feb
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Jan
Jan
Nov
Nov
June
Aug
Aug
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation:
% agree strongly/slightly
61% 54%55%
65% 55% 51%
57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 52% 53%
48%44%48%
47%
51% 55%54% 50% 46% 44% 33%41%
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
Jun
Sept
Feb
Sept
Feb
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Nov
Nov
June
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan

8. 8
Recovery Outlook 2
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession:
% agree strongly/slightly
45%45%50% 47% 41%41%
48% 48%51% 47%48%48%46% 47% 43%47%
45% 45% 46% 32%34%39%37%36%
39%
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
Sept
Sept
Jun
Feb
Feb
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Nov
Nov
June
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it
is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
62% 61%60% 61% 60% 56% 56%55%53% 55% 55% 53%
59% 52% 53% 51% 50% 54% 52% 45%45%49%45%47%
48%
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
Sept
Sept
Jun
Feb
Feb
Apr'10
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '11
Nov
Nov
June
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan

9. 9
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: April 2009, 2010, 2011 & March 2011
I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more
spending money than I than before because of
Impact on: was a few months ago the recession
•Spending
•Saving 16% 21%
36% 28% 23% 27%
13% 14%
•Debt
•Borrowing April April Mar April Apr Apr Mar Apr
'09 '10 '11 '11 '09 '10 '11 '11
Paying off debts is my Now is a good time to buy
main financial priority I would be happy to a house for those who
borrow from a bank if I want to
59% 58% 58% need to
64% 61% 60%
53%
31% 23% 24%
Apr Mar Apr Apr Mar Apr Apr Apr Mar Apr
'10 '11 '11 '10 '11 '11 '09 '10 '11 '11
NB: debt & borrowing questions not asked in 2009

10. 10
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to April 2011
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
10%
0%
Oct
Oct
Feb
Feb
Jun
Nov
Jan
July
Nov
Jan
Dec
Dec
June
Apr '09
Aug
Apr '10
Aug
Apr '11
Sept
Sept
Jul
May
Mar
Mar
May

11. 11
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to April 2011
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
5%
0% Feb
Feb
Jun
Oct
Jan
Oct
Jan
Sept
Sept
May
May
July
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Aug
Aug
Mar
Mar
Apr '11
Jul
Apr '09
Apr '10
June

12. 12
Taking Stock
• Irish consumers are now planning for the long
haul – emotionally and economically.
• Their financial focus is on debt reduction, as well
as on precautionary savings to see them
through to recovery.
• Nevertheless, consistently between a third and
half of all adults feel some degree of ‘insulation’
from the full consequences of the recession.
• Couple that with continuing emotional
robustness and it could reasonably be argued
that recovery in consumer markets may bounce
back more strongly than expected one people
feel the worst is behind them.
• But we’re not there yet...

13. 13
Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill - Chairman
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
T. (01) 410 5200
E. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
W. www.amarach.com
B. www.amarach.com/blog