The AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator report, tracking the economic and emotional recovery in Ireland since April 2009, reveals a recovery index of 20.3 as of July 2011, showing minimal change from the previous month. Despite ongoing recessionary conditions, indicators reflect a resilient emotional state among the Irish population, with consistent reports of happiness and enjoyment. The report aims to monitor the transition out of recession and suggests that while emotional conditions are improving, tangible shifts in consumer behavior may take longer to manifest.

1. The Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
October Index Results
The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator
July 2011 Results
© Amárach Research 2009

2. 2
The Emotional Recovery
• We have been reporting our monthly
Recovery Indicator since April 2009.
• We set out two years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery
alongside our ‘economic progress’.
• Our tracking research has shown the
remarkable emotional strength of the Irish
people, who have consistently reported
‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most
frequently experienced emotions.
• But we are still in recession – and the path to
recovery still lies some way ahead.
• We will help you along that path.

3. 3
Timing Recovery
• All recessions end in recovery –
so will this one.
Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs • The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:
when do we know the recession is over and
recovery has started?
• Amárach Research has developed the
Recovery Indicator to help us track the
economic cycle more closely.
• This report summarises the AIB-Amárach
Recovery Indicator results from April 2009
(when it began) to July 2011.
• The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during the period 11th-18th July 2011 inclusive.

4. 4
A Matter of Measurement
• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and
150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us
which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’
• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

5. 5
A Matter of Measurement
• July 2011 saw little change in the public’s views on the current stage
of the economic cycle:
June’11 1% July’11 0%
June’11 2% July’11 3%
June‘11 46% July‘11 47% June’11 24% July’11 22%
June’11 28% July’11 28%

6. 6
AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator
• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100
(0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).
• In July 2011, the Recovery Indicator stands at 20.3 – almost unchanged from June’s figure of 20.4.
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Apr Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July
'09 '10 '11

7. 7
Recovery Outlook 1
Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time:
% agree strongly/slightly
52% 42%
41% 43% 39%
48%
41%44% 42%43%46% 41% 42% 43% 42% 42% 28%
34% 31% 23% 26% 24% 25% 24% 26%
23%
26% 18%
May
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
July
Jun
Sept
Feb
Sept
Feb
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Jan
Jan
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation:
% agree strongly/slightly
61% 54% 55%
65% 55% 51% 53%
57% 59% 58% 60% 62% 48% 44% 48% 47% 48%
47%
51% 55% 54%52% 53% 50% 46% 41%
44% 33%
May
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
July
Jun
Sept
Feb
Sept
Feb
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan

8. 8
Recovery Outlook 2
I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession:
% agree strongly/slightly
45%45% 50% 47% 41%41% 39% 37% 36% 39% 40% 34%
39%
48% 48%51% 47%48%48%46% 47% 43%47% 45% 46% 32% 34%
45%
May
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
July
Sept
Sept
Jun
Feb
Feb
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan
Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it
is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly
62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56% 56% 55%53% 55% 55% 53%
59% 49% 45% 47% 48% 50% 44%
49%
52% 54% 52% 45%45%
53% 51% 50%
May
May
May
Dec
Dec
July
July
July
Sept
Sept
Jun
Feb
Feb
Apr'10
Oct
Mar
Oct
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '11
Nov
Nov
June
June
Aug
Aug
Jan
Jan

9. 9
Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey
Percent of adults who agree with each statement: July 2009*, 2010, 2011 & June 2011
I am more relaxed about I am saving a lot more
spending money than I than before because of
Impact on: was a few months ago the recession
•Spending
•Saving 38%
27% 25% 26%
•Debt 14% 20% 14% 17%
•Borrowing
Jul'09 Jul'10 Jun'11 Jul'11 Jul'09 Jul'10 Jun'11 Jul'11
Paying off debts is my Now is a good time to
main financial priority I would be happy to buy a house for those
borrow from a bank if I who want to
62% 59% 59% need to
64% 60% 62%
27% 23% 26%
Jul'10 Jun'11 Jul'11 Jul'10 Jun'11 Jul'11 Jul'10 Jun'11 Jul'11
* NB: debt & borrowing questions not asked in 2009

10. 10
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to July 2011
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
10%
0%
Oct
Oct
Sept
Sept
Jul
Feb
Feb
May
Jun
Nov
Jan
July
Nov
Jan
July
Dec
June
Dec
June
Mar
Mar
Apr '09
Apr '10
Apr '11
Aug
Aug
May
May

11. 11
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
April 2009 to July 2011
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
5%
0%
Feb
Feb
Oct
Oct
Jun
Jan
Jan
May
Sept
May
Sept
May
July
July
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Aug
Aug
Mar
Mar
Apr '11
Jul
Apr '09
Apr '10
June
June

12. 12
Resilient Optimism
• The emotional mood of the nation continues to
demonstrate strong resilience.
• The experience of positive emotions (enjoyment,
happiness) has strengthened steadily since
November last year – in terms of the nation’s
‘psyche’ – whilst the hold of negative emotions
(worry, anxiety) has weakened.
• But it is still too early for changes in emotions to
translate into behavioural change: especially
consumer spending.
• However, if the present trends continue over the
remainder of the year, spending growth will follow.
• Stay tuned to future issues of the AIB-Amárach
Recovery Indicator to find out what happens...

13. 13
Amárach Contact Details
Gerard O’Neill
Chairman
Amárach Research
11 Kingswood Business Centre
Citywest Business Campus
Dublin 24
telephone: (01) 410 5200
email: gerard.oneill@amarach.com
website: www.amarach.com
blog: www.amarach.com/blog
twitter: www.twitter.com/amarachresearch