Project planning has always built on the art of anticipation. Today's rapidly changing complex world puts new challenges to this art. To succeed, an agile attitude and approach to planning is a promising starting point. Many organizations however struggle with taking this idea into practice. In this talk you will hear and learn about a practical approach to agile project planning in large organizations. This approach is successfully proven in practice at Ericsson, one of the world's largest SW companies.

1. Hendrik Esser
VP Operations
Ericsson
Agile Planning
In large organizations
Hendrik Esser
@HendrikEsser
Initiative driver
Supporting Agile Adoption

2. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 2
How many %
of your plans
did not need
to be changed
later?

3. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 3
(Many clever people)

4. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 4
Traditional way to deal with
uncertainty

5. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 5

6. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 6
Practically?

7. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 7
What needs to change?
People
Processes
Structures
Behavior
Capabilities
Interdependencies
asystemofconstraints
This is an (organizational) system change!

8. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 8
Human System Action Tool
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
desired
state
or
problem
statement
Human System Action Tool – Ericsson AB/Hendrik Esser

9. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 9
Human System Action Tool
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
desired
state
or
problem
statement
Behavior
Mindset/attitude
Values
Needs
Competence
Skills
# people
Diversity
Hidden talent
Processes
Practices
Tools
Habits
Organization
Governance
Compensation
Roles
(Informal) networks
Human System Action Tool – Ericsson AB/Hendrik Esser

10. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 10
Learning cycle
Look at the system
Analyze:
- Is your vision still valid?
- What supports your vision
- What doesn’t
Take change actions
Define a
change experiment
See what emerges

11. Embracing Uncertainty

12. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 12
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
Communicate
Make uncertainty
visible
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Speak up when you see something
unexpected
React constructively
on surprises
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Frequent meetings to
digest updates/new insights
Distributed planning on
different levels
Iterative development
 feedback loop
Communication
structure
Manage expectations
 anticipate expec-
tations & address
them
Translate uncertainty into realistic
expectations (customers, internal
stakeholders)

13. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 13
Ranges
Visualization
Continuous
Collaboration &
sharing
Uncertainty Management
Large-Scale Principles
Cost uncertainty
TODAY Delivery
range prediction
Time Uncertainty
(Burndown Chart)
Planning
&
Alignment
Product
Mgmt
Development
Expertise
Planning
Expertise
Technical
Expertise
Solution
Product Mgmt
Opportunity
Owner
Feature 1
Feature 2
Feature 3
Feature 4
Feature 5
Feature 6
Feature 7
Release A Release B
TODAY
Priority

14. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 14
Product Management
Based on
› customer feedback
› company’s strategic goals.
Feature Priority List
Feature Priority
Release Intent
Market Window
Feature 1 1 Release B
Feature 2 2 Release A
Feature 3 3 Release B
Feature 4 4 Release B
Feature 5 5 Release A
Feature 6 6 Release B
Feature 7 7 Release A
Feature 8 8 Release C

15. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 15
Timing uncertainty
TODAY
Delivery range
Feature Burn down Chart
time
Remainingwork

16. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 16
Feature 1 F2 F4 F4
Feature 2 F2 F4 F4
Feature 3 F2 F4 F4
Feature 4 F2 F4 F4
Feature 5 F2 F4 F4
Feature 6 F2 F4 F4
Feature 7 F2 F4 F4
LF4
Release A
LF4
Release B
TODAY
Priority
Feature 1 F2 F4 F4Feature 1 F2 F4 F4
Feature 2 F2 F4 F4
Feature 3 F2 F4 F4
Feature 4 F2 F4 F4
Feature 5 F2 F4 F4
Feature 6 F2 F4 F4
Feature 7 F2 F4 F4
LF4
Release A
LF4
Release B
TODAY
Priority
A
B
B
B
A
B
A
Release
Intent
Visualization
Uncertainties for Features and Releases
Release
A
Release
B

17. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 17
Visualization
Uncertainties on portfolio/Scenario level
Pull System
Lean principle: avoid overburden
Capability limit
 time
#people

18. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 18
Visualization
Uncertainties on portfolio/Scenario level
Pull System
Lean principle: avoid overburden
Capability limit
We have teams available in 2
months from now
 flexibility, responsiveness
Scenario data from
Quick Analysis
Items, that are either
mandatory
or in execution
 time
#people

19. Deal professionally with uncertainty
Uncertainty Management

20. Intervention
1

21. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 21
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
Communicate
Make uncertainty
visible
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Speak up when you see something
unexpected
React constructively
on surprises
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Frequent meetings to
digest updates/new insights
Distributed planning on
different levels
Iterative development
 feedback loop
Communication
structure
Manage expectations
 anticipate expec-
tations & address
them
Translate uncertainty into realistic
expectations (customers, internal
stakeholders)

22. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 22
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
all plans with cost & time
ranges
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Distributed planning on
different levels
Scrum
Basic acceptance by PdM
Recruit Portfolio Mgrs
with “right” mindset &
perceverance
Decision model
Portfolio Mgrs

23. Intervention
2

24. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 24
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
all plans with cost & time
ranges
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Distributed planning on
different levels
Scrum
Basic acceptance by PdM
Recruit Portfolio Mgrs
with “right” mindset &
perceverance
Heavy debates
in governance
meetings
Teams don’t
support the
ranges
Explain purpose of
ranges
Tool support for ranges
POs asked to support
ranges
Lift the abstraction level
in governance meetings

25. Intervention
3

26. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 26
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
all plans with cost & time
ranges
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Distributed planning on
different levels
Scrum
Basic acceptance by PdM
Recruit Portfolio Mgrs
with “right” mindset &
perceverance
Some
teams hate
the tool
Explain purpose of
ranges
Tool support for ranges
POs asked to support
ranges
Lift the abstraction level
in governance meetings Make tool optional
Less debate
in governance
meetings
Add “give me ranges” to
process without telling
“how”

27. Intervention
4

28. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 28
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
all plans with cost & time
ranges
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Distributed planning on
different levels
Scrum
Basic acceptance by PdM
Recruit Portfolio Mgrs
with “right” mindset &
perceverance
Debate:
why can’t we
commit earlier?
Explain purpose of
ranges
Tool support for ranges
POs asked to support
ranges
Lift the abstraction level
in governance meetings Make tool optional
In
governance
meetings: range is
used to discuss what
we can tell to the customer
Add “give me ranges” to
process without telling
“how”
Provide customer
oriented uncertainty view
in governance meetings
PdM understand
development better
Regular work/scenario
meetings between
Development and PdM
Developers understand
PdM better

29. Intervention
5

30. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 30
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
all plans with cost & time
ranges
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Distributed planning on
different levels
Scrum
Basic acceptance by PdM
Recruit Portfolio Mgrs
with “right” mindset &
perceverance
Explain purpose of
ranges
Tool support for ranges
POs asked to support
ranges
Lift the abstraction level
in governance meetings Make tool optional
PdM and
Development
starting to “join forces”
Add “give me ranges” to
process without telling
“how”
Provide customer
oriented uncertainty view
in governance meetings
PdM understand
development better
Regular work/scenario
meetings between
Development and PdM
Developers understand
PdM better
Closely pair PO with
PdMgr

31. Intervention
6

32. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 32
ProcessesStructures
Behavior Capabilities
Deal
professionally
with
uncertainty
all plans with cost & time
ranges
Accept, that uncertainty is
always there
Share views and insights
Show and discuss uncertainty in
governance meetings
Distributed planning on
different levels
Scrum
Basic acceptance by PdM
Recruit Portfolio Mgrs
with “right” mindset &
perceverance
Explain purpose of
ranges
Tool support for ranges
POs asked to support
ranges
Lift the abstraction level
in governance meetings Make tool optional
We
don’t need
commitment
decisions
any more
Add “give me ranges” to
process without telling
“how”
Provide customer
oriented uncertainty view
in governance meetings
PdM understand
development better
Regular work/scenario
meetings between
Development and PdM
Developers understand
PdM better
Closely pair PO with
PdMgr Make commitment
decisions optional

33. To be
continued
…

34. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 34
› Agile planning is about embracing change
› This is a system change!
Wanted behaviors, capabilities, processes and structures.
› Not a one-shot: it requires continuous evolution  organizational retrospectives!
› Key ingredients:
– Behaviors: Constructively work with uncertainties and surprises
– Capabilities: Uncertainty communication skills / expectation management skills
– Processes: Short iterations and “feedback loop obsession”
– Structures: Visualization of uncertainties and communication & decision structures to work
with the feedback

35. Large Scale Planning and Estimation | Ericsson Internal | © Ericsson AB 2017 | 2017-03-09 | Page 35