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BMC Complementary
and Alternative Medicine
BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine2001, 1
Research article
A systematic review of the quality of homeopathic clinical trials
Wayne B Jonas *1, Rachel L Anderson 2, Cindy C Crawford 1 and
John S Lyons 2
Address: 1Samueli Institute for Information Biology and Department of Family Medicine, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences,
Bethesda, Maryland, USA and 2Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Northwestern University Medical School, Chicago, Illinois, USA
E-mail: Wayne B Jonas* - wjonas@siib.org; Rachel L Anderson - randerson@mail.public-health.uiowa.edu;
Cindy C Crawford - ccrawford@siib.org; John S Lyons - jsl329@nwu.edu
*Corresponding author
Abstract
Background: While a number of reviews of homeopathic clinical trials have been done, all have
used methods dependent on allopathic diagnostic classifications foreign to homeopathic practice.
In addition, no review has used established and validated quality criteria allowing direct comparison
of the allopathic and homeopathic literature.
Methods: In a systematic review, we compared the quality of clinical-trial research in homeopathy
to a sample of research on conventional therapies using a validated and system-neutral approach.
All clinical trials on homeopathic treatments with parallel treatment groups published between
1945–1995 in English were selected. All were evaluated with an established set of 33 validity criteria
previously validated on a broad range of health interventions across differing medical systems.
Criteria covered statistical conclusion, internal, construct and external validity. Reliability of criteria
application is greater than 0.95.
Results: 59 studies met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 79% were from peer-reviewed journals,
29% used a placebo control, 51% used random assignment, and 86% failed to consider potentially
confounding variables. The main validity problems were in measurement where 96% did not report
the proportion of subjects screened, and 64% did not report attrition rate. 17% of subjects dropped
out in studies where this was reported. There was practically no replication of or overlap in the
conditions studied and most studies were relatively small and done at a single-site. Compared to
research on conventional therapies the overall quality of studies in homeopathy was worse and
only slightly improved in more recent years.
Conclusions: Clinical homeopathic research is clearly in its infancy with most studies using poor
sampling and measurement techniques, few subjects, single sites and no replication. Many of these
problems are correctable even within a "holistic" paradigm given sufficient research expertise,
support and methods.
Background
The popularity of complementary, alternative and uncon-
ventional medicine is increasing worldwide. Several sur-
veys have estimated that between 30 and 70% of patients
Published: 31 December 2001
BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine 2001, 1:12
Received: 13 July 2001
Accepted: 31 December 2001
This article is available from: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1472-6882/1/12
© 2001 Jonas et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. Verbatim copying and redistribution of this article are permitted in any medium for any non-com-
mercial purpose, provided this notice is preserved along with the article's original URL. For commercial use, contact info@biomedcentral.com
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in developed countries use these practices, depending on
the population and modality. [1–3] There is, however, a
paucity of scientific research on many complementary
and alternative medical (CAM) practices. A recent com-
mentary in the Archives of Internal Medicine (vol. 156,
pp. 2162–2164) called for more research into one of the
most controversial of these practices, homeopathy, to de-
termine its quality and clinical efficacy, putting aside for
the moment its implausibility.
Over the past several decades there have been a number of
clinical trials on various forms of homeopathic treatment
for a host of disorders from stroke and post-operative
complications to arthritis and fibromyalgia to influenza
and upper respiratory track infections. [4,5] While the
treatment and conditions studied vary, they share the
common property of representing clinical outcome re-
search on forms of homeopathic medicine. Several inde-
pendent systematic reviews published to date on this
research have all shown a surprising number of positive
results, even among those trials that received high quality
ratings for randomization, blinding, sample size and oth-
er methodological criteria. [4–6] None of these reviews,
however, have looked at a broad spectrum of validity cri-
teria and none have compared the quality of homeopathic
research to conventional research using methods that
were not derived from a conventional clinical diagnostic
framework.
A number of authors have addressed the difficulties en-
countered in experimental studies of homeopathy. [5,7–
12] While these issues have been extensively discussed in
the homeopathic literuature, the issues are not well
known in the conventional literature. The main issue rel-
evant to assessment of research quality is that the theoret-
ical and clinical approaches of homeopathy use different
diagnostic and therapeutic taxonomies than conventional
medicine. Unlike conventional medicine that attempts to
isolate cause – effect links between single treatments and
specific diseases, homeopathic medicine focuses on the
stimulation of broad healing processes that have influenc-
es on a variety of conditions and symptom patterns. [8]
Current classical homeopathic practitioners use complex
pattern recognition procedures (often computer assisted)
to initiate treatment, evaluate patient response and adjust
therapy. It is within this so-called "holistic" paradigm that
researchers continue to attempt a critical examination of
the specific effects of homeopathic therapies as they relate
to conventional diagnostic categories. Lack of homeo-
pathic expertise by researchers or difficulties in modifica-
tion of homeopathic practice goals to fit conventional
diagnosis-based research designs can cause confusion in
the design and execution of clinical trials and in the eval-
uation and interpretation of results. For example, a study
by Shipley on the treatment of osteoarthritis with the ho-
meopathic remedy Rhus tox reported no difference in out-
come compared to placebo. [13] The method for
identifying patients who fit the pattern most likely to re-
spond to Rhus tox was crude, however, reflecting poor ho-
meopathic practice. A follow-up study by Fisher did a
detailed evaluation of a set of patients with fibromyalgia
who fit the detailed pattern of Rhus tox. using expert ho-
meopathic methods. A randomized controlled trial in this
group showed increased effects of Rhus tox over placebo.
[14]
These differing frameworks also complicate our ability to
comparatively evaluate these systems. [7–11] The lack of
support for homeopathic therapies among Western prac-
titioners stems, in part, from the scarce quantity and per-
ceived poor quality of homeopathic clinical research.
However, no studies have directly compared the quality of
research in homeopathic to conventional medicine using
a quality assessment method that is neutral to their differ-
ing diagnostic classifications, treatment and outcome
strategies. A meta-analysis of homeopathic clinical trials
(on which WJ was the corresponding author) evaluated
some specific quality parameters of 89 placebo-controlled
trials of homeopathy using commonly used methods for
addressing conventional medical studies. [5] This study
reported that homeopathic clinical trials scored about the
same as conventional trials on the Jadad scale of quality
assessment. The Jadad scale contains only 5 items, howev-
er, and measures simple components of internal validity.
[15] No information about external validity, generaliza-
bility, statistical validity, effects when compared to con-
ventional treatments, and other important trial quality
items were assessed.
When doing this meta-analysis, it became clear to us that
using review criteria based on diagnostic classifications
developed for assessing conventional medicine did not
address the differing classification frameworks between
homeopathy and conventional medicine. There were
practically no studies that addressed both classification
schemes and very few that preselected a uniform set of pa-
tients according to homeopathic criteria before testing (as
in the Fisher trial described above). This resulted in a het-
erogeneity problem, that is, we were mixing very different
types of conditions and classifications but reviewing them
from the perspective of one of these classification systems.
This problem was not solvable by using narrow review cri-
teria created for one (conventional) system. What was
needed was a set of valid quality criteria that were neutral
to these two systems with very different theoretical bases
and approaches. We felt that an evaluation system called
"Systematic Review" (SR) developed by Light and Pillem-
er [16] provided such an approach since the review criteria
were not depended on diagnostic homogeneity and so ad-
dress quite disparate frameworks. SR is comprehensive,
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objective and validated quality assessment method yet
also with broad in applicability. It was originally derived
and extensively applied to heterogeneous systems of inter-
vention in the social, educational and behavioral sciences
but has since been expanded to the evaluation of medi-
cine – both conventional and complementary. [17–19] It
allows for a comprehensive assessment of research quality
across a variety of study designs and intervention areas.
In SR, the methodological characteristics critical for at-
taining reliable and valid research results are evaluated
across a variety of studies and study designs. By quantita-
tively evaluating components of research design, statisti-
cal methods, generalizability, bias and related findings,
SRs provide an estimate of over 30 quality variables in a
study set. Collectively, these criteria are referred to as
"threats to validity." In addition to providing a compre-
hensive assessment of quality the systematic evaluation of
scientific methods provides a framework from which fu-
ture studies can be designed. In addition to its application
in the social and behavioral sciences, SRs have been suc-
cessfully applied to conventional and complementary
medical approaches including nursing care [19], religion
and mental health research [17], abortion [18], and phys-
iotherapy. Because it provides an approach to the evalua-
tion of disparate systems, we used the SR method to
evaluate a sample of homeopathic clinical trials and com-
pare them to the quality of research in conventional stud-
ies previously evaluated by the SR method [20]. Our
specific aim was to get representative samples of the "best"
research in both homeopathy and conventional medicine
and objectively evaluate their quality using a "system neu-
tral" approach to research assessment.
Methods
Literature search
A multiple strategy search was undertaken to identify re-
search on homeopathic treatments that used the strategy
from the comprehensive review by Linde, et al. [5] Briefly,
this involved 1) the review by Kleijnen, et al. published in
1991, [4] which used a extensive search strategy for
Medline and Embase up to 1990; 2) a direct search of
Medline from 1966 to August 1995 using the full text
terms homeop*, homoeop*, and the Mesh terms homoe-
opathy, homoeopathy, and alternative medicine and
screening of all citations found; 3) contacts with homeo-
pathic researchers, institutions reporting on homeopathic
research, homeopathic manufacturers and follow-up on
suggestions from these contacts; 4) searching several ex-
tensive homeopathic and complementary medicine regis-
tries including those of the Woodward Foundation (USA);
CISCOM (RCCM, London); AMED (British Library);
HomInform (Glasgow, Scotland); IDAG (Amersfoort,
Netherlands); and CCRH (India) as well as several indi-
vidual collections; 5) attending homeopathic meetings
and searching the conference proceedings, abstract ebook-
lets, and indexes from meetings and homeopathic books;
6) the references of reviews and trials found; 7) and addi-
tional on-line searches of Medline and Embase from 1989
to October 1995. We operationally defined homeopathic
research as studies involving serially prepared dilutions
selected according to commonly used methods, including
classical, clinical, and complex approaches including
pathological and isopathic and tautapathic remedy selec-
tion.
Study selection
We sought to get representative samples of the best re-
search in homeopathy and conventional medicine. There
is a large disparity in the amount of research in conven-
tional and homeopathic medicine. In addition, there are
recognized journals in conventional medicine publish the
best research, while this is not the case in homeopathy.
We therefore used different approaches to identify the
best articles in these databases as follows. For homeopa-
thy, articles had to meet the following criteria: (1) use of
a homeopathic intervention for a clinical condition in a
comparative trial; (2) assessment of the outcome of the in-
tervention using an empirical measure of some type; (3)
be prospective and involve a parallel control group for
comparison with homeopathic treatment; (4) have suffi-
cient information reported for us to score with SR review
criteria; (5) be in English. We included criterion (3 – stud-
ies in parallel control groups) because there is a vast liter-
ature of case and series outcome reports in homeopathy
that are not written for purposes of research and so would
not represent the "gold standard" for homeopathic re-
search.
Evaluation of study quality
Each article was reviewed using an established coding
form previously used and validated for SRs to assess the
characteristics and quality of empirical research. [19–21]
In addition, we determined whether the primary study
outcome (as determined by the author or, if unclear, se-
lected by the primary reviewer) was improved, unchanged
or made worst by homeopathic treatment. All articles
were reviewed through a contract by a person specifically
trained in the SR method, and has experience in applying
it to a variety of study sets. This reviewer had no previous
experience or opinion about homeopathy and was hired
to apply the SR methods to this data set. In addition, the
quality of these reviews were checked for reliability and
accuracy on two samples by two other authors who have
extensive experience with the SR method and were also
neutral about homeopathy (RA and JL). All criterion are
scored as either "met" if the quality items was present and
adequate or "not met" if the quality item was either miss-
ing or inadequately met. The reliability of these review cri-
teria was consistently greater than 0.95 between and
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Table 1: Variables and Definitions Used in Systematic Review
Variable Definition
Sample size Number of subjects who participated in the research at the initiation of the study
Gender Percent of sample male/female
Age Average age of sample
Ethnicity Percent of identified racial or ethnic categories
Response rate Sample size divided by the total number of people approached for participation
Attrition rate Number of subjects finishing study divided by sample size
Sampling Frame How sample was identified–random, systematic, mixed, none, not indicated
Research Design Prospective, cross-sectional or retrospective design
Statistics Based on highest level used: descriptive, univariate, or multivariate
Funding Source Who paid for research
Control Group Whether or not a control group was used in design
Reliability Any indication of the reliability of any measure used.
Random assignment Use of random assignment to groups
Confounding variable Any measurement or statistical applications that attempt to identify and control for variables that might
influence outcomes independent of treatment.
Threats to validity
Threats to Statistical Conclusion Validity
Low statistical power Rated as any groups < 10 or correlations with fewer than 30 pairs.
Violated assumption Evidence of non-normal distributions with parametric statistics
Fishing/error rate More than 10 statistical tests without a Bonferroni (or similar) correction.
Reliability of measures Failure to test, note or reference information on measures
Reliability of treatment Failure to test or note consistently of the application of treatments
Random irrelevancies Absence of effort to make measurements reasonably consistent.
Random heterogeneity representative Absence of effort to ensure that sample is reasonably
Threats to Internal validity
History Repeated measures without temporal control
Maturation Repeated measures without temporal control on developmentally sensitive outcomes.
Testing Use of measures that are sensitive to the testing process.
Instrumentation Use of poorly or uncalibrated measures.
Statistical regression Study of cases selected from extremes without control group
Mortality More than 30% of sample did not complete study
Interaction with selection Evidence that selection into groups might interact with history, maturation, or testing.
Ambiguity of cause An association that can be interpreted in either direction vis-à-vis cause and effect.
Diffusion of treatment Contact between experimental and control subjects.
Compensatory work to Equalization Evidence that groups are knowledgeable about design and might Equal things out.
Compensatory rivalry Evidence that groups are knowledge about design and might compete with other group members.
Resentful demoralization Evidence that one group feels disadvantaged through group assignment process.
Threats to Construct Validity
Inadequate explication Evidence that choice of measurement operations does not represent the construct.
Mono-operation bias Use of only one question for central outcome
Mono-method bias Use of only one measurement approach (e.g self report) for central outcome
Hypothesis guessing Evidence that subjects might attempt to guess what results should be (absence of appropriate blinding pro-
cedures).
Evaluation apprehension Evidence that subjects might become anxious during assessments.
Experimenter bias Absence of controls to keep invested parties from participating in the measurement procedures.
Confounding constructs Range restriction in measurement
With level of constructs
Threats to External Validity
Interaction of different Treatment Failure to assess additional treatment received during study.
Interaction of testing And treatment Evidence that testing might be related to the treatment so that subjects complete tests differently after
treatment.
Restricted generalizability Evidence of a limited measurement approach that may not generalize.
Sample bias Evidence of a poorly chosen sample that does not represent the population considered.
Interaction of selection And treatment Evidence that group assignment is influenced by variables related to the likelihood of response to treat-
ment
Interaction of setting And treatment Evidence that treatment works only in some settings.
Interaction of history And treatment Evidence that the time during which the study was done may have an impact on findings.
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among reviewers. Finally, we checked for trends in quality
of the homeopathic literature over time by analyzing stud-
ies separately in three groups – those published before
1980 (n = 17), and from 1980–89 (n = 29) and 1990–96
(n = 13).
The quality scores for this set of homeopathic studies was
compared with a random sample of 100 articles previous-
ly evaluated from the New England Journal of Medicine and
the Journal of the American Medical Association. [20] JAMA
and the NEJM are considered the top two journals in con-
ventional medical research regardless of study design. In
addition, we had previously evaluated this set of studies
and found it useful as a "gold standard" for conventional
medicine. This sample had identical inclusion criteria to
the homeopathic literature except they were not required
to have used a parallel control group for comparison. This
aspect of study design is assessed with two internal valid-
ity criteria in the SR method – "selection" and "interaction
with selection" – and so these items were not used to com-
pare study sets. All other criteria operate independent of a
control group design and so allow for a direct comparison
of these quality items between the homeopathic and con-
ventional study sets. Table 1 describes the criteria used in
the SR method. These criteria have been extensively vali-
dated and found applicable to a variety of types of empir-
ical research independent of study design. [19–21]
Analysis
Analysis consisted of descriptive statistics for both sets of
studies and a comparison of outcomes in those studies
randomized and blinded to those that were not using chi-
square method. In addition, we compared the number
and percent of "threats-to-validity" in both homeopathic
and conventional data sets both individually and in their
subgroups.
Table 2: Characteristics of the Clinical Trials in Homeopathy by Systematic Review
Descriptive Data Number Percent
Controlled trials found 186 - -
Trials included in study 59 32
Peer-reviewed publications 47 80
Proceedings or theses 12 20
Number of journals 22
No funding support indicated 50 85
Funded by private foundation 7 12
Subjects
Gender stated 30 54
Race and ethnicity stated 0 0
United States Subjects 1 2
Sample size < 100 40 68
Design
Placebo controlled 23 40
Randomized 30 51
Sampling frame not stated 49 83
Failed to consider confounders 51 86
Measurement
Reliability reported 0 0
Number screened reported 2 3
Drop out rate reported 21 36
Average drop out rate - - 17
Outcomes
Number 229 100
Descriptive only 62 27
Improvement from treatment 73 32
No effect from treatment 90 39
Worse from treatment 4 2
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Results
Study descriptions
A total of 59 empirical studies evaluating the effects of ho-
meopathic interventions on clinical conditions were in-
cluded. (Table 2) Forty-seven of these (79.7%) were
articles published in peer-reviewed journals. Twelve arti-
cles (20.3%) were published as proceedings. The studies
were published in 22 different journals, although 20
(34%) were from the British Homoeopathic Journal. Most
studies (n = 50, 84.7%) indicate no funding support, al-
though two (3.4%) were funded by a government agency
and seven (11.9%) stated they were funded by a private
donor/foundation.
Subjects
Across all studies that reported the gender of subjects, 60%
of subjects were female and 40% male. Seven studies
(11.9%) were entirely female samples while two studies
(3.4%) were entirely male samples. Nearly half of all stud-
ies (n = 27; 45.8%) failed to report the gender of subjects.
No study indicated the race or ethnicity of its sample. Thir-
ty-nine studies (66.1%) indicated the national origins of
the sample with only one study comprising subjects from
the United States (1.7%) and 38 studies comprising resi-
dents of other countries (64.4%). The average sample size
was 2,135; however, this high average results from a single
study of 18,640. The median sample size was 59, with a
range from 10 to 934 (excluding the outlier). Two thirds of
studies (n = 40; 67.8%) had a sample size below 100.
Design
All studies were prospective and used a comparison
group. Twenty-three studies (40%) used a placebo con-
trol. Thirty studies (50.8%) used random assignment be-
tween experimental and control groups while six (10.2%)
used a matched control group. Forty-nine studies (83.1%)
did not describe the sampling frame used, that is, they did
not describe how the patient sample was identified. For
example, one study described the method for random
sampling, four studies used a systematic sample frame
(e.g. consecutive cases), one study used a mixed frame
(e.g. random sampling of consecutive cases), and four
studies did not use a sample frame (i.e., convenience sam-
pling). Most studies (n = 51, 86.4%) failed to consider po-
tentially confounding variables in their designs such as
open patient selection, severity of illness or non-blind
measurement. Seven studies explored potential con-
founds and found none, while only one study explicitly
discussed potential confounds in the design. The propor-
tion of studies in which specific threats to the validity of
causal statements were identified can be found in Table 3.
Measurement
No study reported the reliability of measures. Almost all
studies failed to report response rates, that is, the number
of patients screened compared to the number who en-
tered the study (n = 57, 96.6%). Of the two studies that re-
ported the proportion of subjects approached who
participated, the average response rate was 36.5%. Nearly
two thirds of studies (n = 38, 64.4%) did not report the at-
trition or drop-out rate. For those reporting this item, an
average of 16.9% of subjects began the experiment but
failed to complete it.
Study Findings
A total of 229 outcome variables were identified, an aver-
age of about 4 outcomes per study. Of these, 62 (27%)
were only descriptive and no attempt was made to deter-
mine how they were affected by the homeopathic treat-
ment. Seventy-three variables (32%) were reported to
have statistically significant improvement as a result of the
treatment. Ninety outcome variables (39%) were unaf-
fected by the treatment, while four variables (2%) were
made significantly worse by the treatment.
The probability of a positive outcome was significantly
lower when random assignment was used than when ran-
dom assignment was not used (chi square= 11.9, p < .001)
a finding often found in study series and confirmed by
others in homeopathic trials. [12] However, when the ho-
meopathic treatment was compared to a conventional
medical treatment, the probability of a positive outcome
was significantly higher than when a placebo control was
used (chi square = 15.3, p < .0001).
Overall quality
Significant threats to validity occurred in 30–40% of stud-
ies in every major category of validity measured. (Figure
1) Especially high were problems with external validity
since most studies had small sample sizes and few were
multi-centered. Thus, the results of research in homeo-
pathic medicine is less likely to be generalizable beyond
study populations than the results of research in conven-
tional medicine. Surprisingly, internal validity quality
scores were very similar between homeopathic and con-
ventional studies, indicating that homeopathic research is
not appreciably worse than conventional research when it
comes to controlling for bias and systematic error. (Figure
1) Compared to conventional studies using these same
quality criteria the homeopathic studies had a higher
number of validity threats in 21 categories (63.6%), and
the same in 7 (21%) categories. Conventional studies
scored worse than homeopathic studies in 5 (15%) cate-
gories. How homeopathic and conventional studies com-
pare on all validity threats is shown in Table 3. We were
unable to do a subset analysis of conventional studies that
used only parallel control groups in order to confirm the
independence of validity threats from study design in this
sample.
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Quality trends
The overall quality scores in homeopathic trials improved
somewhat from 1945 to 1995. Cohort group summary
scores went from 30% total validity threats in studies
done prior to 1980 (n = 17), to 26% validity threats be-
tween 1980–1989 (n = 29) and 24% between 1990 and
1996 (n = 13) (NS).
Table 3: Percent of studies with specific threats to validity of homeopathic and conventional interventions.
Statistical Conclusion Validity Homoeopathic Conventional
Low Statistical Power 6.8 24.0
Violated Assumptions of Statistical Tests 18.6 14.0
Fishing/Error Rate Problem 6.8 24.0
Reliability of Measures 100.0 94.0
Reliability of Treatment Implementation 16.9 0.0
Random Irrelevancies in Experimental Setting 8.5 0.0
Random Heterogeneity of Subjects 57.6 52.0
Internal Validity
History 3.4 2.0
Maturation 6.8 2.0
Testing 1.7 0.0
Instrumentation 0.0 0.0
Statistical Regression 3.4 0.0
Selection 100.0 70.0
Attrition 76.3 0.0
Interaction with Selection 20.3 2.0
Ambiguity of Direction of Causality 0.0 2.0
Diffusion of Treatment 1.7 0.0
Compensatory Equalization of Treatments 0.0 0.0
Compensatory Rivalry 0.0 0.0
Resentful Demoralization 1.7 0.0
Construct Validity
Inadequate Pre-operational Explication of Constructs 22.0 4.0
Mono-Operation Bias 37.3 92.0
Mono-Method Bias 66.1 94.0
Evaluation Apprehension 0.0 0.0
Experimenter Expectancies 3.4 0.0
Confounding Constructs with Level of Constructs 1.7 0.0
Interaction of Testing and Treatments 0.0 0.0
Restricted Generalizability Across Constructs 22.0 0.0
External Validity
Sample Bias 94.9 52.0
Interaction of Selection and Treatment 1.7 0.0
Interaction of Setting and Treatment 74.6 0.0
Interaction of History and Treatment 0.0 0.0
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Discussion
This review of clinical outcome research in homeopathy
has several important implications for the field not re-
vealed in other reviews. Despite the absence of funding, it
appears that a number of prospective clinical trials using
random assignment and control group designs have been
accomplished. The results of these studies suggest that, in
general, homeopathic treatments may offer some prom-
ise, particularly when compared to conventional medical
treatments. As expected, the findings are less impressive
when a placebo control and randomization are used. This
pattern may reflect the placebo influences common to
both conventional and homeopathic therapies and the
possibility of selection bias in favor of homeopathy for
many studies reported. Both of these factors would falsely
elevate the number of positive studies reported in home-
opathic research. On the other hand, homeopathic physi-
cians spend considerably more time per visit with patients
than conventional physicians. [22] The comprehensive
interview and long-term follow-up undertaken as part of
homeopathic case management increases patient-doctor
interaction and likely enhances expectancy and placebo
effects. This may make it more difficult to detect and iso-
late any additional effects from homeopathic prepara-
tions, if these occur. Combined with small sample size
this might falsely increase the number of negative studies
reported. Thus, the effect of the homeopathic clinical
process needs to be studied separately from the examina-
tion of any specific (non-placebo) effects that might occur
from homeopathic drugs. The former should be examined
in pragmatic randomized trials that compare homeopath-
ic with standard therapy and the later should be examined
using simple laboratory or clinical models that can be eas-
ily repeated by independent investigators.
This study has several limitations. The samples of homeo-
pathic and conventional studies were not identical. While
we took all conditions in both study samples, we exam-
ined all the English language studies in homeopathy over
five decades as opposed to more recent studies only in the
conventional literature. In addition, we selected only
studies with parallel control groups in homeopathy but
took all intervention studies in conventional medicine.
We did this in attempt to select a "gold standard" sample
of research in each area. While this difference between
samples should only have effected two of our 33 quality
criteria we cannot be sure that other validity scoring were
not effected. To assess the relevance of these sampling dif-
ferences we examined only the more recent studies in ho-
meopathy. Unfortunately we were unable to do a subset
analysis of only conventional randomized, placebo con-
trolled trials in our conventional subset in order to con-
firm the independence of validity threat from study design
as previously shown. It is likely that this would have fur-
ther improved the quality scores of the conventional sub-
set, however, which would not affect our main
conclusions about the general quality of research and
threats to validity in these two systems.
A second limitation is that the Systematic Review method
used in this evaluation is derived from the social and be-
havioral sciences and is not commonly used in medical re-
search evaluation. We selected this system, however,
precisely because it was broad enough to examine dispa-
rate theoretical systems in a more even handed manner
than review criteria developed specifically for use in a bi-
omedical framework. While the SR method has been used
in conventional and complementary medicine evalua-
tions in the past we realize that the system can only help
make general estimates of comparative quality and that
individual or summary scores between the two systems
should not be viewed as precise. Since limitations in score
precision is a problem with all such scoring methods we
have tried to highlight only the general and obvious valid-
ity threats found.
How do the quality issues in homeopathic research com-
pare with conventional medical research? Overall, the
quality of homeopathic research is not as good as research
in conventional medicine. The quality of homeopathic tri-
als has only slightly improved over time. Homeopathic
studies scored worse than conventional studies on validity
threats in over 60% of the items rated compared to 15%
of the items in which convention studies scored worse.
Most of these errors were on items that would effect the
generalizability of the results to other settings rather than
on failure to control for systematic errors within studies
(bias). Several quality issues are similar between homeo-
pathic and conventional studies. Notably, both groups of
research consistently fail to report on the reliability of
Figure 1
Average % of studies Not Meeting Validity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
% of study
statistical
conclusion
validity
internal
validity
construct
validity
external
validity
Homeopathy
Conventional
Average % of Studies Not Meeting Validity CriteriaAverage % of Studies Not Meeting Validity Criteria
BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine 2001, 1 http://www.biomedcentral.com/1472-6882/1/12
Page 9 of 10
(page number not for citation purposes)
measures used. Unreliable outcome measures can mark-
edly distort the accuracy and value of statistical analysis
and interpretation of the results. For example, one other-
wise very well done study reported on the rates of tonsil-
lectomy under classical homeopathic versus placebo
treatment as a main outcome even though the reliability
of clinical decisions for obtaining tonsillectomy are ex-
tremely poor, thus, making this comparison meaningless.
[23]
Currently, the greatest weaknesses in homeopathic re-
search are the variety of unreplicated studies and the small
sample sizes. Although 59 studies were included, there
was virtually no replication and practically no overlap in
the conditions studied. Two thirds of the studies had total
sample sizes below 100 and many did not do power cal-
culations to determine the required subject numbers. In
order to build credibility within the medical research
field, multiple replications and/or extensions using the
same or similar approaches to treat the same or similar
medical conditions are necessary. Similarly, multi-site re-
search with larger sample sizes is essential to improve the
confidence and generalizability of findings. As in all of
medicine, success in a treatment at one site often does not
always translate into success at other locations with differ-
ent practitioners and patients. A second major flaw of ho-
meopathic studies in many have a high "attrition rate."
This means that the data analyzed and reported on is of-
ten lower than the entry sample size due to all causes, such
as dropouts, lost or incorrectly filled out forms, etc. A high
attrition rate can be a major threat to validity in a study.
In addition, homeopathic studies often demonstrated a
interaction of treatment setting and treatment indicating
that non-specific effects in the environment more often
contributed to the outcome than in conventional re-
search.
Finally, several fairly simple improvements in the report-
ing of research findings can help to heighten the quality of
these studies. Most importantly, an outlined discussion of
study limitations and potential confounders is important
for a balanced interpretation of results and for the ad-
vancement of existing research. Similarly, a detailed de-
scription of sample characteristics, including gender,
ethnicity, and attrition rates is necessary for determining
generalizability. By precisely delineating study and sam-
ple characteristics, research findings can be stated more
definitively. The absence of an appropriate framework
from which to examine homeopathic remedies is one but
not the sole challenge to quality research in this alterna-
tive practice. Critical systematic review of these studies
identifies a number of areas for improvement. Quality
guidelines for conducting research in homeopathy are
published. [24] More critical peer review of homeopathic
studies that pay attention to these and other guidelines
can advance quality research in this area. Such criteria
need to be carefully addressed by investigators if the qual-
ity, credibility and usefulness of research in homeopathy
is to improve.
Competing interests
None declared.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Michelle Shasha for participating in the re-
view of the homeopathic clinical trial articles. This project has been partially
supported by a grant, the Standard Homeopathic Foundation and NIH, NC-
CAM grant, #AT00178-01.
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Effects of homeopathic medcines on daily burden of symp-
toms in children with recurrent upper respiratory tract in-
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Homoeopath J 1994, 83:3-7

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A systematic review of the quality of homeopathic clinical trials

  • 1. BioMed Central Page 1 of 10 (page number not for citation purposes) BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine2001, 1 Research article A systematic review of the quality of homeopathic clinical trials Wayne B Jonas *1, Rachel L Anderson 2, Cindy C Crawford 1 and John S Lyons 2 Address: 1Samueli Institute for Information Biology and Department of Family Medicine, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, USA and 2Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Northwestern University Medical School, Chicago, Illinois, USA E-mail: Wayne B Jonas* - wjonas@siib.org; Rachel L Anderson - randerson@mail.public-health.uiowa.edu; Cindy C Crawford - ccrawford@siib.org; John S Lyons - jsl329@nwu.edu *Corresponding author Abstract Background: While a number of reviews of homeopathic clinical trials have been done, all have used methods dependent on allopathic diagnostic classifications foreign to homeopathic practice. In addition, no review has used established and validated quality criteria allowing direct comparison of the allopathic and homeopathic literature. Methods: In a systematic review, we compared the quality of clinical-trial research in homeopathy to a sample of research on conventional therapies using a validated and system-neutral approach. All clinical trials on homeopathic treatments with parallel treatment groups published between 1945–1995 in English were selected. All were evaluated with an established set of 33 validity criteria previously validated on a broad range of health interventions across differing medical systems. Criteria covered statistical conclusion, internal, construct and external validity. Reliability of criteria application is greater than 0.95. Results: 59 studies met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 79% were from peer-reviewed journals, 29% used a placebo control, 51% used random assignment, and 86% failed to consider potentially confounding variables. The main validity problems were in measurement where 96% did not report the proportion of subjects screened, and 64% did not report attrition rate. 17% of subjects dropped out in studies where this was reported. There was practically no replication of or overlap in the conditions studied and most studies were relatively small and done at a single-site. Compared to research on conventional therapies the overall quality of studies in homeopathy was worse and only slightly improved in more recent years. Conclusions: Clinical homeopathic research is clearly in its infancy with most studies using poor sampling and measurement techniques, few subjects, single sites and no replication. Many of these problems are correctable even within a "holistic" paradigm given sufficient research expertise, support and methods. Background The popularity of complementary, alternative and uncon- ventional medicine is increasing worldwide. Several sur- veys have estimated that between 30 and 70% of patients Published: 31 December 2001 BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine 2001, 1:12 Received: 13 July 2001 Accepted: 31 December 2001 This article is available from: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1472-6882/1/12 © 2001 Jonas et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. Verbatim copying and redistribution of this article are permitted in any medium for any non-com- mercial purpose, provided this notice is preserved along with the article's original URL. For commercial use, contact info@biomedcentral.com
  • 2. BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine 2001, 1 http://www.biomedcentral.com/1472-6882/1/12 Page 2 of 10 (page number not for citation purposes) in developed countries use these practices, depending on the population and modality. [1–3] There is, however, a paucity of scientific research on many complementary and alternative medical (CAM) practices. A recent com- mentary in the Archives of Internal Medicine (vol. 156, pp. 2162–2164) called for more research into one of the most controversial of these practices, homeopathy, to de- termine its quality and clinical efficacy, putting aside for the moment its implausibility. Over the past several decades there have been a number of clinical trials on various forms of homeopathic treatment for a host of disorders from stroke and post-operative complications to arthritis and fibromyalgia to influenza and upper respiratory track infections. [4,5] While the treatment and conditions studied vary, they share the common property of representing clinical outcome re- search on forms of homeopathic medicine. Several inde- pendent systematic reviews published to date on this research have all shown a surprising number of positive results, even among those trials that received high quality ratings for randomization, blinding, sample size and oth- er methodological criteria. [4–6] None of these reviews, however, have looked at a broad spectrum of validity cri- teria and none have compared the quality of homeopathic research to conventional research using methods that were not derived from a conventional clinical diagnostic framework. A number of authors have addressed the difficulties en- countered in experimental studies of homeopathy. [5,7– 12] While these issues have been extensively discussed in the homeopathic literuature, the issues are not well known in the conventional literature. The main issue rel- evant to assessment of research quality is that the theoret- ical and clinical approaches of homeopathy use different diagnostic and therapeutic taxonomies than conventional medicine. Unlike conventional medicine that attempts to isolate cause – effect links between single treatments and specific diseases, homeopathic medicine focuses on the stimulation of broad healing processes that have influenc- es on a variety of conditions and symptom patterns. [8] Current classical homeopathic practitioners use complex pattern recognition procedures (often computer assisted) to initiate treatment, evaluate patient response and adjust therapy. It is within this so-called "holistic" paradigm that researchers continue to attempt a critical examination of the specific effects of homeopathic therapies as they relate to conventional diagnostic categories. Lack of homeo- pathic expertise by researchers or difficulties in modifica- tion of homeopathic practice goals to fit conventional diagnosis-based research designs can cause confusion in the design and execution of clinical trials and in the eval- uation and interpretation of results. For example, a study by Shipley on the treatment of osteoarthritis with the ho- meopathic remedy Rhus tox reported no difference in out- come compared to placebo. [13] The method for identifying patients who fit the pattern most likely to re- spond to Rhus tox was crude, however, reflecting poor ho- meopathic practice. A follow-up study by Fisher did a detailed evaluation of a set of patients with fibromyalgia who fit the detailed pattern of Rhus tox. using expert ho- meopathic methods. A randomized controlled trial in this group showed increased effects of Rhus tox over placebo. [14] These differing frameworks also complicate our ability to comparatively evaluate these systems. [7–11] The lack of support for homeopathic therapies among Western prac- titioners stems, in part, from the scarce quantity and per- ceived poor quality of homeopathic clinical research. However, no studies have directly compared the quality of research in homeopathic to conventional medicine using a quality assessment method that is neutral to their differ- ing diagnostic classifications, treatment and outcome strategies. A meta-analysis of homeopathic clinical trials (on which WJ was the corresponding author) evaluated some specific quality parameters of 89 placebo-controlled trials of homeopathy using commonly used methods for addressing conventional medical studies. [5] This study reported that homeopathic clinical trials scored about the same as conventional trials on the Jadad scale of quality assessment. The Jadad scale contains only 5 items, howev- er, and measures simple components of internal validity. [15] No information about external validity, generaliza- bility, statistical validity, effects when compared to con- ventional treatments, and other important trial quality items were assessed. When doing this meta-analysis, it became clear to us that using review criteria based on diagnostic classifications developed for assessing conventional medicine did not address the differing classification frameworks between homeopathy and conventional medicine. There were practically no studies that addressed both classification schemes and very few that preselected a uniform set of pa- tients according to homeopathic criteria before testing (as in the Fisher trial described above). This resulted in a het- erogeneity problem, that is, we were mixing very different types of conditions and classifications but reviewing them from the perspective of one of these classification systems. This problem was not solvable by using narrow review cri- teria created for one (conventional) system. What was needed was a set of valid quality criteria that were neutral to these two systems with very different theoretical bases and approaches. We felt that an evaluation system called "Systematic Review" (SR) developed by Light and Pillem- er [16] provided such an approach since the review criteria were not depended on diagnostic homogeneity and so ad- dress quite disparate frameworks. SR is comprehensive,
  • 3. BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine 2001, 1 http://www.biomedcentral.com/1472-6882/1/12 Page 3 of 10 (page number not for citation purposes) objective and validated quality assessment method yet also with broad in applicability. It was originally derived and extensively applied to heterogeneous systems of inter- vention in the social, educational and behavioral sciences but has since been expanded to the evaluation of medi- cine – both conventional and complementary. [17–19] It allows for a comprehensive assessment of research quality across a variety of study designs and intervention areas. In SR, the methodological characteristics critical for at- taining reliable and valid research results are evaluated across a variety of studies and study designs. By quantita- tively evaluating components of research design, statisti- cal methods, generalizability, bias and related findings, SRs provide an estimate of over 30 quality variables in a study set. Collectively, these criteria are referred to as "threats to validity." In addition to providing a compre- hensive assessment of quality the systematic evaluation of scientific methods provides a framework from which fu- ture studies can be designed. In addition to its application in the social and behavioral sciences, SRs have been suc- cessfully applied to conventional and complementary medical approaches including nursing care [19], religion and mental health research [17], abortion [18], and phys- iotherapy. Because it provides an approach to the evalua- tion of disparate systems, we used the SR method to evaluate a sample of homeopathic clinical trials and com- pare them to the quality of research in conventional stud- ies previously evaluated by the SR method [20]. Our specific aim was to get representative samples of the "best" research in both homeopathy and conventional medicine and objectively evaluate their quality using a "system neu- tral" approach to research assessment. Methods Literature search A multiple strategy search was undertaken to identify re- search on homeopathic treatments that used the strategy from the comprehensive review by Linde, et al. [5] Briefly, this involved 1) the review by Kleijnen, et al. published in 1991, [4] which used a extensive search strategy for Medline and Embase up to 1990; 2) a direct search of Medline from 1966 to August 1995 using the full text terms homeop*, homoeop*, and the Mesh terms homoe- opathy, homoeopathy, and alternative medicine and screening of all citations found; 3) contacts with homeo- pathic researchers, institutions reporting on homeopathic research, homeopathic manufacturers and follow-up on suggestions from these contacts; 4) searching several ex- tensive homeopathic and complementary medicine regis- tries including those of the Woodward Foundation (USA); CISCOM (RCCM, London); AMED (British Library); HomInform (Glasgow, Scotland); IDAG (Amersfoort, Netherlands); and CCRH (India) as well as several indi- vidual collections; 5) attending homeopathic meetings and searching the conference proceedings, abstract ebook- lets, and indexes from meetings and homeopathic books; 6) the references of reviews and trials found; 7) and addi- tional on-line searches of Medline and Embase from 1989 to October 1995. We operationally defined homeopathic research as studies involving serially prepared dilutions selected according to commonly used methods, including classical, clinical, and complex approaches including pathological and isopathic and tautapathic remedy selec- tion. Study selection We sought to get representative samples of the best re- search in homeopathy and conventional medicine. There is a large disparity in the amount of research in conven- tional and homeopathic medicine. In addition, there are recognized journals in conventional medicine publish the best research, while this is not the case in homeopathy. We therefore used different approaches to identify the best articles in these databases as follows. For homeopa- thy, articles had to meet the following criteria: (1) use of a homeopathic intervention for a clinical condition in a comparative trial; (2) assessment of the outcome of the in- tervention using an empirical measure of some type; (3) be prospective and involve a parallel control group for comparison with homeopathic treatment; (4) have suffi- cient information reported for us to score with SR review criteria; (5) be in English. We included criterion (3 – stud- ies in parallel control groups) because there is a vast liter- ature of case and series outcome reports in homeopathy that are not written for purposes of research and so would not represent the "gold standard" for homeopathic re- search. Evaluation of study quality Each article was reviewed using an established coding form previously used and validated for SRs to assess the characteristics and quality of empirical research. [19–21] In addition, we determined whether the primary study outcome (as determined by the author or, if unclear, se- lected by the primary reviewer) was improved, unchanged or made worst by homeopathic treatment. All articles were reviewed through a contract by a person specifically trained in the SR method, and has experience in applying it to a variety of study sets. This reviewer had no previous experience or opinion about homeopathy and was hired to apply the SR methods to this data set. In addition, the quality of these reviews were checked for reliability and accuracy on two samples by two other authors who have extensive experience with the SR method and were also neutral about homeopathy (RA and JL). All criterion are scored as either "met" if the quality items was present and adequate or "not met" if the quality item was either miss- ing or inadequately met. The reliability of these review cri- teria was consistently greater than 0.95 between and
  • 4. BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine 2001, 1 http://www.biomedcentral.com/1472-6882/1/12 Page 4 of 10 (page number not for citation purposes) Table 1: Variables and Definitions Used in Systematic Review Variable Definition Sample size Number of subjects who participated in the research at the initiation of the study Gender Percent of sample male/female Age Average age of sample Ethnicity Percent of identified racial or ethnic categories Response rate Sample size divided by the total number of people approached for participation Attrition rate Number of subjects finishing study divided by sample size Sampling Frame How sample was identified–random, systematic, mixed, none, not indicated Research Design Prospective, cross-sectional or retrospective design Statistics Based on highest level used: descriptive, univariate, or multivariate Funding Source Who paid for research Control Group Whether or not a control group was used in design Reliability Any indication of the reliability of any measure used. Random assignment Use of random assignment to groups Confounding variable Any measurement or statistical applications that attempt to identify and control for variables that might influence outcomes independent of treatment. Threats to validity Threats to Statistical Conclusion Validity Low statistical power Rated as any groups < 10 or correlations with fewer than 30 pairs. Violated assumption Evidence of non-normal distributions with parametric statistics Fishing/error rate More than 10 statistical tests without a Bonferroni (or similar) correction. Reliability of measures Failure to test, note or reference information on measures Reliability of treatment Failure to test or note consistently of the application of treatments Random irrelevancies Absence of effort to make measurements reasonably consistent. Random heterogeneity representative Absence of effort to ensure that sample is reasonably Threats to Internal validity History Repeated measures without temporal control Maturation Repeated measures without temporal control on developmentally sensitive outcomes. Testing Use of measures that are sensitive to the testing process. Instrumentation Use of poorly or uncalibrated measures. Statistical regression Study of cases selected from extremes without control group Mortality More than 30% of sample did not complete study Interaction with selection Evidence that selection into groups might interact with history, maturation, or testing. Ambiguity of cause An association that can be interpreted in either direction vis-à-vis cause and effect. Diffusion of treatment Contact between experimental and control subjects. Compensatory work to Equalization Evidence that groups are knowledgeable about design and might Equal things out. Compensatory rivalry Evidence that groups are knowledge about design and might compete with other group members. Resentful demoralization Evidence that one group feels disadvantaged through group assignment process. Threats to Construct Validity Inadequate explication Evidence that choice of measurement operations does not represent the construct. Mono-operation bias Use of only one question for central outcome Mono-method bias Use of only one measurement approach (e.g self report) for central outcome Hypothesis guessing Evidence that subjects might attempt to guess what results should be (absence of appropriate blinding pro- cedures). Evaluation apprehension Evidence that subjects might become anxious during assessments. Experimenter bias Absence of controls to keep invested parties from participating in the measurement procedures. Confounding constructs Range restriction in measurement With level of constructs Threats to External Validity Interaction of different Treatment Failure to assess additional treatment received during study. Interaction of testing And treatment Evidence that testing might be related to the treatment so that subjects complete tests differently after treatment. Restricted generalizability Evidence of a limited measurement approach that may not generalize. Sample bias Evidence of a poorly chosen sample that does not represent the population considered. Interaction of selection And treatment Evidence that group assignment is influenced by variables related to the likelihood of response to treat- ment Interaction of setting And treatment Evidence that treatment works only in some settings. Interaction of history And treatment Evidence that the time during which the study was done may have an impact on findings.
  • 5. BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine 2001, 1 http://www.biomedcentral.com/1472-6882/1/12 Page 5 of 10 (page number not for citation purposes) among reviewers. Finally, we checked for trends in quality of the homeopathic literature over time by analyzing stud- ies separately in three groups – those published before 1980 (n = 17), and from 1980–89 (n = 29) and 1990–96 (n = 13). The quality scores for this set of homeopathic studies was compared with a random sample of 100 articles previous- ly evaluated from the New England Journal of Medicine and the Journal of the American Medical Association. [20] JAMA and the NEJM are considered the top two journals in con- ventional medical research regardless of study design. In addition, we had previously evaluated this set of studies and found it useful as a "gold standard" for conventional medicine. This sample had identical inclusion criteria to the homeopathic literature except they were not required to have used a parallel control group for comparison. This aspect of study design is assessed with two internal valid- ity criteria in the SR method – "selection" and "interaction with selection" – and so these items were not used to com- pare study sets. All other criteria operate independent of a control group design and so allow for a direct comparison of these quality items between the homeopathic and con- ventional study sets. Table 1 describes the criteria used in the SR method. These criteria have been extensively vali- dated and found applicable to a variety of types of empir- ical research independent of study design. [19–21] Analysis Analysis consisted of descriptive statistics for both sets of studies and a comparison of outcomes in those studies randomized and blinded to those that were not using chi- square method. In addition, we compared the number and percent of "threats-to-validity" in both homeopathic and conventional data sets both individually and in their subgroups. Table 2: Characteristics of the Clinical Trials in Homeopathy by Systematic Review Descriptive Data Number Percent Controlled trials found 186 - - Trials included in study 59 32 Peer-reviewed publications 47 80 Proceedings or theses 12 20 Number of journals 22 No funding support indicated 50 85 Funded by private foundation 7 12 Subjects Gender stated 30 54 Race and ethnicity stated 0 0 United States Subjects 1 2 Sample size < 100 40 68 Design Placebo controlled 23 40 Randomized 30 51 Sampling frame not stated 49 83 Failed to consider confounders 51 86 Measurement Reliability reported 0 0 Number screened reported 2 3 Drop out rate reported 21 36 Average drop out rate - - 17 Outcomes Number 229 100 Descriptive only 62 27 Improvement from treatment 73 32 No effect from treatment 90 39 Worse from treatment 4 2
  • 6. BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine 2001, 1 http://www.biomedcentral.com/1472-6882/1/12 Page 6 of 10 (page number not for citation purposes) Results Study descriptions A total of 59 empirical studies evaluating the effects of ho- meopathic interventions on clinical conditions were in- cluded. (Table 2) Forty-seven of these (79.7%) were articles published in peer-reviewed journals. Twelve arti- cles (20.3%) were published as proceedings. The studies were published in 22 different journals, although 20 (34%) were from the British Homoeopathic Journal. Most studies (n = 50, 84.7%) indicate no funding support, al- though two (3.4%) were funded by a government agency and seven (11.9%) stated they were funded by a private donor/foundation. Subjects Across all studies that reported the gender of subjects, 60% of subjects were female and 40% male. Seven studies (11.9%) were entirely female samples while two studies (3.4%) were entirely male samples. Nearly half of all stud- ies (n = 27; 45.8%) failed to report the gender of subjects. No study indicated the race or ethnicity of its sample. Thir- ty-nine studies (66.1%) indicated the national origins of the sample with only one study comprising subjects from the United States (1.7%) and 38 studies comprising resi- dents of other countries (64.4%). The average sample size was 2,135; however, this high average results from a single study of 18,640. The median sample size was 59, with a range from 10 to 934 (excluding the outlier). Two thirds of studies (n = 40; 67.8%) had a sample size below 100. Design All studies were prospective and used a comparison group. Twenty-three studies (40%) used a placebo con- trol. Thirty studies (50.8%) used random assignment be- tween experimental and control groups while six (10.2%) used a matched control group. Forty-nine studies (83.1%) did not describe the sampling frame used, that is, they did not describe how the patient sample was identified. For example, one study described the method for random sampling, four studies used a systematic sample frame (e.g. consecutive cases), one study used a mixed frame (e.g. random sampling of consecutive cases), and four studies did not use a sample frame (i.e., convenience sam- pling). Most studies (n = 51, 86.4%) failed to consider po- tentially confounding variables in their designs such as open patient selection, severity of illness or non-blind measurement. Seven studies explored potential con- founds and found none, while only one study explicitly discussed potential confounds in the design. The propor- tion of studies in which specific threats to the validity of causal statements were identified can be found in Table 3. Measurement No study reported the reliability of measures. Almost all studies failed to report response rates, that is, the number of patients screened compared to the number who en- tered the study (n = 57, 96.6%). Of the two studies that re- ported the proportion of subjects approached who participated, the average response rate was 36.5%. Nearly two thirds of studies (n = 38, 64.4%) did not report the at- trition or drop-out rate. For those reporting this item, an average of 16.9% of subjects began the experiment but failed to complete it. Study Findings A total of 229 outcome variables were identified, an aver- age of about 4 outcomes per study. Of these, 62 (27%) were only descriptive and no attempt was made to deter- mine how they were affected by the homeopathic treat- ment. Seventy-three variables (32%) were reported to have statistically significant improvement as a result of the treatment. Ninety outcome variables (39%) were unaf- fected by the treatment, while four variables (2%) were made significantly worse by the treatment. The probability of a positive outcome was significantly lower when random assignment was used than when ran- dom assignment was not used (chi square= 11.9, p < .001) a finding often found in study series and confirmed by others in homeopathic trials. [12] However, when the ho- meopathic treatment was compared to a conventional medical treatment, the probability of a positive outcome was significantly higher than when a placebo control was used (chi square = 15.3, p < .0001). Overall quality Significant threats to validity occurred in 30–40% of stud- ies in every major category of validity measured. (Figure 1) Especially high were problems with external validity since most studies had small sample sizes and few were multi-centered. Thus, the results of research in homeo- pathic medicine is less likely to be generalizable beyond study populations than the results of research in conven- tional medicine. Surprisingly, internal validity quality scores were very similar between homeopathic and con- ventional studies, indicating that homeopathic research is not appreciably worse than conventional research when it comes to controlling for bias and systematic error. (Figure 1) Compared to conventional studies using these same quality criteria the homeopathic studies had a higher number of validity threats in 21 categories (63.6%), and the same in 7 (21%) categories. Conventional studies scored worse than homeopathic studies in 5 (15%) cate- gories. How homeopathic and conventional studies com- pare on all validity threats is shown in Table 3. We were unable to do a subset analysis of conventional studies that used only parallel control groups in order to confirm the independence of validity threats from study design in this sample.
  • 7. BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine 2001, 1 http://www.biomedcentral.com/1472-6882/1/12 Page 7 of 10 (page number not for citation purposes) Quality trends The overall quality scores in homeopathic trials improved somewhat from 1945 to 1995. Cohort group summary scores went from 30% total validity threats in studies done prior to 1980 (n = 17), to 26% validity threats be- tween 1980–1989 (n = 29) and 24% between 1990 and 1996 (n = 13) (NS). Table 3: Percent of studies with specific threats to validity of homeopathic and conventional interventions. Statistical Conclusion Validity Homoeopathic Conventional Low Statistical Power 6.8 24.0 Violated Assumptions of Statistical Tests 18.6 14.0 Fishing/Error Rate Problem 6.8 24.0 Reliability of Measures 100.0 94.0 Reliability of Treatment Implementation 16.9 0.0 Random Irrelevancies in Experimental Setting 8.5 0.0 Random Heterogeneity of Subjects 57.6 52.0 Internal Validity History 3.4 2.0 Maturation 6.8 2.0 Testing 1.7 0.0 Instrumentation 0.0 0.0 Statistical Regression 3.4 0.0 Selection 100.0 70.0 Attrition 76.3 0.0 Interaction with Selection 20.3 2.0 Ambiguity of Direction of Causality 0.0 2.0 Diffusion of Treatment 1.7 0.0 Compensatory Equalization of Treatments 0.0 0.0 Compensatory Rivalry 0.0 0.0 Resentful Demoralization 1.7 0.0 Construct Validity Inadequate Pre-operational Explication of Constructs 22.0 4.0 Mono-Operation Bias 37.3 92.0 Mono-Method Bias 66.1 94.0 Evaluation Apprehension 0.0 0.0 Experimenter Expectancies 3.4 0.0 Confounding Constructs with Level of Constructs 1.7 0.0 Interaction of Testing and Treatments 0.0 0.0 Restricted Generalizability Across Constructs 22.0 0.0 External Validity Sample Bias 94.9 52.0 Interaction of Selection and Treatment 1.7 0.0 Interaction of Setting and Treatment 74.6 0.0 Interaction of History and Treatment 0.0 0.0
  • 8. BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine 2001, 1 http://www.biomedcentral.com/1472-6882/1/12 Page 8 of 10 (page number not for citation purposes) Discussion This review of clinical outcome research in homeopathy has several important implications for the field not re- vealed in other reviews. Despite the absence of funding, it appears that a number of prospective clinical trials using random assignment and control group designs have been accomplished. The results of these studies suggest that, in general, homeopathic treatments may offer some prom- ise, particularly when compared to conventional medical treatments. As expected, the findings are less impressive when a placebo control and randomization are used. This pattern may reflect the placebo influences common to both conventional and homeopathic therapies and the possibility of selection bias in favor of homeopathy for many studies reported. Both of these factors would falsely elevate the number of positive studies reported in home- opathic research. On the other hand, homeopathic physi- cians spend considerably more time per visit with patients than conventional physicians. [22] The comprehensive interview and long-term follow-up undertaken as part of homeopathic case management increases patient-doctor interaction and likely enhances expectancy and placebo effects. This may make it more difficult to detect and iso- late any additional effects from homeopathic prepara- tions, if these occur. Combined with small sample size this might falsely increase the number of negative studies reported. Thus, the effect of the homeopathic clinical process needs to be studied separately from the examina- tion of any specific (non-placebo) effects that might occur from homeopathic drugs. The former should be examined in pragmatic randomized trials that compare homeopath- ic with standard therapy and the later should be examined using simple laboratory or clinical models that can be eas- ily repeated by independent investigators. This study has several limitations. The samples of homeo- pathic and conventional studies were not identical. While we took all conditions in both study samples, we exam- ined all the English language studies in homeopathy over five decades as opposed to more recent studies only in the conventional literature. In addition, we selected only studies with parallel control groups in homeopathy but took all intervention studies in conventional medicine. We did this in attempt to select a "gold standard" sample of research in each area. While this difference between samples should only have effected two of our 33 quality criteria we cannot be sure that other validity scoring were not effected. To assess the relevance of these sampling dif- ferences we examined only the more recent studies in ho- meopathy. Unfortunately we were unable to do a subset analysis of only conventional randomized, placebo con- trolled trials in our conventional subset in order to con- firm the independence of validity threat from study design as previously shown. It is likely that this would have fur- ther improved the quality scores of the conventional sub- set, however, which would not affect our main conclusions about the general quality of research and threats to validity in these two systems. A second limitation is that the Systematic Review method used in this evaluation is derived from the social and be- havioral sciences and is not commonly used in medical re- search evaluation. We selected this system, however, precisely because it was broad enough to examine dispa- rate theoretical systems in a more even handed manner than review criteria developed specifically for use in a bi- omedical framework. While the SR method has been used in conventional and complementary medicine evalua- tions in the past we realize that the system can only help make general estimates of comparative quality and that individual or summary scores between the two systems should not be viewed as precise. Since limitations in score precision is a problem with all such scoring methods we have tried to highlight only the general and obvious valid- ity threats found. How do the quality issues in homeopathic research com- pare with conventional medical research? Overall, the quality of homeopathic research is not as good as research in conventional medicine. The quality of homeopathic tri- als has only slightly improved over time. Homeopathic studies scored worse than conventional studies on validity threats in over 60% of the items rated compared to 15% of the items in which convention studies scored worse. Most of these errors were on items that would effect the generalizability of the results to other settings rather than on failure to control for systematic errors within studies (bias). Several quality issues are similar between homeo- pathic and conventional studies. Notably, both groups of research consistently fail to report on the reliability of Figure 1 Average % of studies Not Meeting Validity 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 % of study statistical conclusion validity internal validity construct validity external validity Homeopathy Conventional Average % of Studies Not Meeting Validity CriteriaAverage % of Studies Not Meeting Validity Criteria
  • 9. BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine 2001, 1 http://www.biomedcentral.com/1472-6882/1/12 Page 9 of 10 (page number not for citation purposes) measures used. Unreliable outcome measures can mark- edly distort the accuracy and value of statistical analysis and interpretation of the results. For example, one other- wise very well done study reported on the rates of tonsil- lectomy under classical homeopathic versus placebo treatment as a main outcome even though the reliability of clinical decisions for obtaining tonsillectomy are ex- tremely poor, thus, making this comparison meaningless. [23] Currently, the greatest weaknesses in homeopathic re- search are the variety of unreplicated studies and the small sample sizes. Although 59 studies were included, there was virtually no replication and practically no overlap in the conditions studied. Two thirds of the studies had total sample sizes below 100 and many did not do power cal- culations to determine the required subject numbers. In order to build credibility within the medical research field, multiple replications and/or extensions using the same or similar approaches to treat the same or similar medical conditions are necessary. Similarly, multi-site re- search with larger sample sizes is essential to improve the confidence and generalizability of findings. As in all of medicine, success in a treatment at one site often does not always translate into success at other locations with differ- ent practitioners and patients. A second major flaw of ho- meopathic studies in many have a high "attrition rate." This means that the data analyzed and reported on is of- ten lower than the entry sample size due to all causes, such as dropouts, lost or incorrectly filled out forms, etc. A high attrition rate can be a major threat to validity in a study. In addition, homeopathic studies often demonstrated a interaction of treatment setting and treatment indicating that non-specific effects in the environment more often contributed to the outcome than in conventional re- search. Finally, several fairly simple improvements in the report- ing of research findings can help to heighten the quality of these studies. Most importantly, an outlined discussion of study limitations and potential confounders is important for a balanced interpretation of results and for the ad- vancement of existing research. Similarly, a detailed de- scription of sample characteristics, including gender, ethnicity, and attrition rates is necessary for determining generalizability. By precisely delineating study and sam- ple characteristics, research findings can be stated more definitively. The absence of an appropriate framework from which to examine homeopathic remedies is one but not the sole challenge to quality research in this alterna- tive practice. Critical systematic review of these studies identifies a number of areas for improvement. Quality guidelines for conducting research in homeopathy are published. [24] More critical peer review of homeopathic studies that pay attention to these and other guidelines can advance quality research in this area. Such criteria need to be carefully addressed by investigators if the qual- ity, credibility and usefulness of research in homeopathy is to improve. Competing interests None declared. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank Michelle Shasha for participating in the re- view of the homeopathic clinical trial articles. This project has been partially supported by a grant, the Standard Homeopathic Foundation and NIH, NC- CAM grant, #AT00178-01. References 1. Eisenberg DM, Davis RB, Ettner S, Appel S, Wilkey S, Van Rompay M, Kessler RC: Trends in alternative medicine use in the United States 1990–1997: Results of a follow-up national survey. JAMA 1998, 280:1569-1575 2. 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  • 10. BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine 2001, 1 http://www.biomedcentral.com/1472-6882/1/12 Page 10 of 10 (page number not for citation purposes) Publish with BioMed Central and every scientist can read your work free of charge "BioMedcentral will be the most significant development for disseminating the results of biomedical research in our lifetime." Paul Nurse, Director-General, Imperial Cancer Research Fund Publish with BMC and your research papers will be: available free of charge to the entire biomedical community peer reviewed and published immediately upon acceptance cited in PubMed and archived on PubMed Central yours - you keep the copyright editorial@biomedcentral.com Submit your manuscript here: http://www.biomedcentral.com/manuscript/ BioMedcentral.com three psychiatric journals: 1966 to 1985. Int J Geriatric Psychiatry 1989, 4:129-134 20. Lyons J, Anderson R, Brule P, Ellison S, Walker S: Systematic re- view of the peer-reviewed scientific literature on family, marital, and community variables across twenty fields of in- quiry. Family Health: From Data to Policy 199343-60 21. Lyons J, Larson D, Bareta J, Liu I, Anderson R, Sparks C: A system- atic analysis of the quantity of AIDS publications and the quality of research methods in three general medical jour- nals. Evaluation and Program Planning 1990, 13:73-77 22. Jacobs J, Chapman EH, Crothers D: Patient characteristics and practice patterns of physicians using homeopathy. Arch Fam Med 1998, 7:537-540 23. de Lange de Klerk E, Blommers J, Kuik DJ, Bezemer PD, Feenstra L: Effects of homeopathic medcines on daily burden of symp- toms in children with recurrent upper respiratory tract in- fections. Br Med J 1994, 309:1329-1332 24. Linde K, Melchart D, Jonas WB, Hornung J: Ways to enhance the quality of clinical and laboratory studies in homeopathy. Br Homoeopath J 1994, 83:3-7