A Playbook - Data Gathering To Storytelling
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Mike Stefaniuk talks about his personal experience in how to think about data gathering and storytelling.
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A Playbook - Data Gathering To Storytelling
- 1. FROM DATA GATHERING TO STORYTELLING MIKE STEFANIUK
- 2. ABOUT ME
- 3. MY PERSONAL PLAYBOOK FOR: How to think How to tell stories
- 4. (HOW TO THINK) 1. APPROACHING PROBLEMS DIFFERENTLY CYNEFIN
- 5. (HOW TO THINK) 2. BIASES
- 6. (HOW TO THINK) 3. FOXES, HEDGEHOGS, AND BAYES
- 7. (HOW TO THINK) 4. FERMI STYLE THINKING
- 8. (HOW TO THINK) 5. MENTAL MODELS
- 9. (STORYTELLING) 1. KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE
- 10. (STORYTELLING) 2. TECHNIQUE “TED Talks” Data Dumps American vs European Style
- 11. (STORYTELLING) 3. AUTHENTICITY AND TRANSPARENCY
- 12. (STORYTELLING) 4. CONFIDENCE (YOU’RE BETTER THAN YOU THINK) “An expert is just someone who has read one more book than you.” Mike Stefaniuk
- 13. COMMUNICATING YOUR PLAN If you are on a hero’s journey and trying to change the world, your story should have 3 elements: 1. A diagnosis: A clear explanation of the challenge that must be overcome. 2. A guiding policy: The overall approach that will be taken to rise up to the challenge. 3. Coherent actions: The actions that will be undertaken to support the guiding policy. Be Robert Munsch!
Editor's Notes
- -Personal learnings and observations. I’m not suggesting this is the way to go for everyone. -Opportunity for me to learn. I want to discuss some of these concepts with all of you.
- Start with Questions -What is your hypothesis? -What is the problem that needs to be solved? Why is this problem? -What questions, if answered, provide the most immediate clarity to the validity of your hypothesis -How can you go about gathering that data -Brainstorming questions takes the pressure off. Makes it feel like an impossible problem can be solved. -Good questions lead to better questions….which ultimately leads to solutions to the problem.
- System 1: Fast, automatic, frequent, emotional, stereotypic, unconscious. System 2: Slow, effortful, infrequent, logical, calculating, conscious. -Biases: -System 1 only makes sense of phenomenon based on what is it already knows. If you’ve only ever seen shapes with straight lines, you will experience a circle as an octagon -Anchoring. The starting point influences your estimates. -Substitution. System 1 substitutes a simpler question for a more difficult one. -Overconfidence – Tendency to overstate benefits and understate costs or risk. -Framing. How the problem is framed influences how it is approached. Good problem definition is key. A problem well-defined is half-solved.
- -The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing. (famous essay by Isaih Berlin) -Hedgehogs see things as back and white versus foxes which say shades of gray. -Hedgehogs can be like broken clocks. But when they are right, they are the “flavour of the month”. -Hedgehogs are useful in stable environments. When things are changing, not so much. -Bayesian analysis – Constantly updating your data sets as new information is available. You get to your answer through incrementalism, not a ‘Big Bang’. Unfortunately, people tend to look for ‘Big Bangs’.
- -Break down the problem into smaller problems. Fermi style thinking. Separate the knowable from the unknowable. Start with facts, then build assumptions. Test the assumptions. -Baseline/anchor (take the outside view before the inside view). E.g. What is the overall statistic for the entire population (fact) before trying to figure out the probability of it happening to a subset? -Keep gathering data. Adjust as appropriate. Time and factors don’t stand still. -Bayesian analysis. Adding additional data sets.
- -Charles Munger is Warren Buffet’s right hand man. Called “Buffet’s Brain” some times. -A mental model is a way of seeing the world or conceptualizing a problem. Economists see it one way, artists another, engineers another etc. etc. -Buffet and Munger’s great insight was using multiple mental models simultaneously creating a “lattice work” of mental models. -Even though they are the most successful investors of all time, psychology was their favourite mental model (of course combined with many others). -Learn about sociology, psychology, history, physics, engineering, math, art etc……these are all useful tools in the tool kit. -Housing market crash, financial crisis in 2007. Economics is at its best as a behavioural science, and at its worst as a mathematical one. -work in teams with different viewpoints. Makes for better predictions, greater likelihood of getting the right data for the problem.
- -EMPATHY! -Understand your audience. What motivates them. -Day in their life. Find out what matters most to them. What impacts them. What could change their lives. -Who are you trying to compel to action? Why? The impacted? Those that can effect change? -The same data set can be used to tell many different stories (lies, damned lies, and statistics). -E.g. Reducing poverty as social good OR reducing poverty to reduce social expenditures and cut taxes. -What is your objective? What are you trying to accomplish? Use this for the basis of shaping your story and storytelling approach.
- -Story telling. “TED talk”, “Data Dumps”, “American vs European”. -Impacted by venue and format. Impacted by the story itself. -Pitches, versus updates, versus keynotes. -Example of my presentation last week.
- -Talk about what is fact and what is assumption. What is true, and what will happen based on certain things happening, or conditions changing. -Be yourself. Others can tell if you are not being authentic. Not being authentic will severely hamper your story.
- -An expert is just someone who has read one more book than you. Matter of confidence. -Trust in yourself. -If someone asks you a hard question, trust in your abilities to think and in your “process” if you don’t have an answer (or you haven’t gotten there yet). -Or turn it into a thank you (that’s something that we had not considered, but thanks for sharing that, good perspective).