SlideShare a Scribd company logo
A paradox of importance in network epidemiology
A B
C
‘40s
Timeline
1947 First programmable computer
1948 The first simulation study, the Monte Carlo project
‘40s
Timeline
1947 First programmable computer
1948 The first simulation study, the Monte Carlo project
‘50s
Timeline
1952 The first computational epidemiology study:
H Abbey. An examination of the Reed-Frost theory
of epidemics. Hum. Biol. 24: 201–233.
‘70s
Timeline
1978 The core group concept:
JA Yorke, HW Hethcote, A Nold. Dynamics and control of
the transmission of Gonorrhea. Sex. Transm. Dis. 5: 51–56.
Timeline
1984 Birth of network epidemiology:
DM Auerbach, WW Darrow, HW Jaffe, JW Curran, Cluster of
cases of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome:
Patients linked by sexual contact. Am. J. Med. 76: 487–492.
‘80s
‘40s
Timeline
1947 First programmable computer
1948 The first simulation study, the Monte Carlo project
‘50s
Timeline
1952 The first computational epidemiology study:
H Abbey. An examination of the Reed-Frost theory
of epidemics. Hum. Biol. 24: 201–233.
‘70s
Timeline
1978 The core group concept:
JA Yorke, HW Hethcote, A Nold. Dynamics and control of
the transmission of Gonorrhea. Sex. Transm. Dis. 5: 51–56.
1984 Birth of network epidemiology:
DM Auerbach, WW Darrow, HW Jaffe, JW Curran, Cluster of
cases of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome:
Patients linked by sexual contact. Am. J. Med. 76: 487–492.
‘80s
Timeline
1995 Birth of computational network epidemiology:
M Kretzschmar. Deterministic and stochastic pair
formation models for the spread of sexually transmitted
diseases. J. Biol. Syst. 3: 789–801.
‘90s
Modeling
Step 1: Compartmental models
Susceptible
meets
Infectious
Infectious
With some probability or rate
Susceptible or
Recovered
With some rate or after some time
Modeling
Step 2: Contact patterns
time
The core group idea
Core groups bring a
population over an
epidemic threshold,
even though it, on
average, wouldn’t be.
Being a member of a core
group = being important
for the disease. But any
individual in the core
group is insignificant for
the core group.
Theparadox
Which one depend on
outbreak scenarios and
intervention scenarios.
Many facets of importance
Which one depend on
outbreak scenarios and
intervention scenarios.
Many facets of importance
The hypotheses
The hypotheses
Core groups can be captured by static network structure.
Structure & dynamics can be coupled by the SIS survival time.
For many vaccinees, the core group would be most important.
The hypotheses
For few vaccinees, hubs would be most important . . .
The hypotheses
. . . or bridges.
The hypotheses
Core groups can be captured by static network structure.
Structure & dynamics can be coupled by the SIS survival time.
Vaccination-impact very correlated with degree.
Less paradoxical paradox
n = 0 n = 1
n = 2 n = 3
We get out of the cloud sometimes . . .
Temporal networks
P Holme, J Saramäki, 2012. Phys. Rep. 519: 97–125.
P Holme, J Saramäki, 2013. Temporal Networks. Berlin, Springer.
… of human interaction
J Saramäki & al., 2013. PNAS 111: 942–947.
LEC Rocha, F Liljeros, P Holme, 2010. PNAS 107: 5706–5711.
LEC Rocha, F Liljeros, P Holme, 2011. PLoS Comp. Biol. 7: e1001109.
M Karsai, J Saramäki & al. Phys. Rev. E 83: 025102.
P Holme, 2005. Phys. Rev. E 71: 046119.
Optimal static networks from
temporal network data
P Holme, 2013. PLoS. Comp. Biol. 9: e1003142.
Time-window networks good,
but be careful with the window size.
Simplified pictures of temporal
networks
P Holme, F Liljeros, 2014.
Sci. Rep. 4: 4999.
time
Beginning &
end of
relationships
more
important
than,
interevent
times for SIR
on empirical
data.
T H A N
K Y O U
Illustrations:
Mi Jin Lee

More Related Content

What's hot

Socialnetworkanalysis (Tin180 Com)
Socialnetworkanalysis (Tin180 Com)Socialnetworkanalysis (Tin180 Com)
Socialnetworkanalysis (Tin180 Com)
Tin180 VietNam
 
Temporal networks - Alain Barrat
Temporal networks - Alain BarratTemporal networks - Alain Barrat
Temporal networks - Alain Barrat
Lake Como School of Advanced Studies
 
Machine Learning of Epidemic Processes in Networks
Machine Learning of Epidemic Processes in NetworksMachine Learning of Epidemic Processes in Networks
Machine Learning of Epidemic Processes in Networks
Francisco Rodrigues, Ph.D.
 
How the information content of your contact pattern representation affects pr...
How the information content of your contact pattern representation affects pr...How the information content of your contact pattern representation affects pr...
How the information content of your contact pattern representation affects pr...
Petter Holme
 
Spreading Phenomena in Social Networks
Spreading Phenomena in Social NetworksSpreading Phenomena in Social Networks
Spreading Phenomena in Social Networks
Manojit Chakraborty
 
16
1616
17
1717
Inferring networks from multiple samples with consensus LASSO
Inferring networks from multiple samples with consensus LASSOInferring networks from multiple samples with consensus LASSO
Inferring networks from multiple samples with consensus LASSO
tuxette
 
Inferring networks from multiple samples with consensus LASSO
Inferring networks from multiple samples with consensus LASSOInferring networks from multiple samples with consensus LASSO
Inferring networks from multiple samples with consensus LASSO
tuxette
 
Disintegration of the small world property with increasing diversity of chemi...
Disintegration of the small world property with increasing diversity of chemi...Disintegration of the small world property with increasing diversity of chemi...
Disintegration of the small world property with increasing diversity of chemi...
N. Sukumar
 
Opposite Opinions
Opposite OpinionsOpposite Opinions
Opposite Opinions
epokh
 
Distributed systems
Distributed systemsDistributed systems
Distributed systems
Francesc Lordan Gomis
 
Functional Brain Networks - Javier M. Buldù
Functional Brain Networks - Javier M. BuldùFunctional Brain Networks - Javier M. Buldù
Functional Brain Networks - Javier M. Buldù
Lake Como School of Advanced Studies
 
Machine Learning Based Watchdog Protocol for Wormhole Attack Detection in Wir...
Machine Learning Based Watchdog Protocol for Wormhole Attack Detection in Wir...Machine Learning Based Watchdog Protocol for Wormhole Attack Detection in Wir...
Machine Learning Based Watchdog Protocol for Wormhole Attack Detection in Wir...
IJCSIS Research Publications
 
Exploiting friendship relations for efficient routing in mobile
Exploiting friendship relations for efficient routing in mobileExploiting friendship relations for efficient routing in mobile
Exploiting friendship relations for efficient routing in mobile
ramya1591
 
Mesoscale Structures in Networks
Mesoscale Structures in NetworksMesoscale Structures in Networks
Mesoscale Structures in Networks
Mason Porter
 
Defending against collaborative attacks by
Defending against collaborative attacks byDefending against collaborative attacks by
Defending against collaborative attacks by
ranjith kumar
 
Maps of sparse memory networks reveal overlapping communities in network flows
Maps of sparse memory networks reveal overlapping communities in network flowsMaps of sparse memory networks reveal overlapping communities in network flows
Maps of sparse memory networks reveal overlapping communities in network flows
Umeå University
 

What's hot (18)

Socialnetworkanalysis (Tin180 Com)
Socialnetworkanalysis (Tin180 Com)Socialnetworkanalysis (Tin180 Com)
Socialnetworkanalysis (Tin180 Com)
 
Temporal networks - Alain Barrat
Temporal networks - Alain BarratTemporal networks - Alain Barrat
Temporal networks - Alain Barrat
 
Machine Learning of Epidemic Processes in Networks
Machine Learning of Epidemic Processes in NetworksMachine Learning of Epidemic Processes in Networks
Machine Learning of Epidemic Processes in Networks
 
How the information content of your contact pattern representation affects pr...
How the information content of your contact pattern representation affects pr...How the information content of your contact pattern representation affects pr...
How the information content of your contact pattern representation affects pr...
 
Spreading Phenomena in Social Networks
Spreading Phenomena in Social NetworksSpreading Phenomena in Social Networks
Spreading Phenomena in Social Networks
 
16
1616
16
 
17
1717
17
 
Inferring networks from multiple samples with consensus LASSO
Inferring networks from multiple samples with consensus LASSOInferring networks from multiple samples with consensus LASSO
Inferring networks from multiple samples with consensus LASSO
 
Inferring networks from multiple samples with consensus LASSO
Inferring networks from multiple samples with consensus LASSOInferring networks from multiple samples with consensus LASSO
Inferring networks from multiple samples with consensus LASSO
 
Disintegration of the small world property with increasing diversity of chemi...
Disintegration of the small world property with increasing diversity of chemi...Disintegration of the small world property with increasing diversity of chemi...
Disintegration of the small world property with increasing diversity of chemi...
 
Opposite Opinions
Opposite OpinionsOpposite Opinions
Opposite Opinions
 
Distributed systems
Distributed systemsDistributed systems
Distributed systems
 
Functional Brain Networks - Javier M. Buldù
Functional Brain Networks - Javier M. BuldùFunctional Brain Networks - Javier M. Buldù
Functional Brain Networks - Javier M. Buldù
 
Machine Learning Based Watchdog Protocol for Wormhole Attack Detection in Wir...
Machine Learning Based Watchdog Protocol for Wormhole Attack Detection in Wir...Machine Learning Based Watchdog Protocol for Wormhole Attack Detection in Wir...
Machine Learning Based Watchdog Protocol for Wormhole Attack Detection in Wir...
 
Exploiting friendship relations for efficient routing in mobile
Exploiting friendship relations for efficient routing in mobileExploiting friendship relations for efficient routing in mobile
Exploiting friendship relations for efficient routing in mobile
 
Mesoscale Structures in Networks
Mesoscale Structures in NetworksMesoscale Structures in Networks
Mesoscale Structures in Networks
 
Defending against collaborative attacks by
Defending against collaborative attacks byDefending against collaborative attacks by
Defending against collaborative attacks by
 
Maps of sparse memory networks reveal overlapping communities in network flows
Maps of sparse memory networks reveal overlapping communities in network flowsMaps of sparse memory networks reveal overlapping communities in network flows
Maps of sparse memory networks reveal overlapping communities in network flows
 

Similar to A paradox of importance in network epidemiology

Epidemic modelling an introduction
Epidemic modelling an introductionEpidemic modelling an introduction
Epidemic modelling an introduction
Nailul Hasibuan
 
Underspecified Scientific Claims in Nanopublications
Underspecified Scientific Claims in NanopublicationsUnderspecified Scientific Claims in Nanopublications
Underspecified Scientific Claims in Nanopublications
Tobias Kuhn
 
24 The Evolution of Network Thinking
24 The Evolution of Network Thinking24 The Evolution of Network Thinking
24 The Evolution of Network Thinking
Duke Network Analysis Center
 
Artificial thought
Artificial thoughtArtificial thought
Artificial thought
Raymond Ebbeler
 
A Review Of MRI Findings In Schizophrenia
A Review Of MRI Findings In SchizophreniaA Review Of MRI Findings In Schizophrenia
A Review Of MRI Findings In Schizophrenia
Scott Faria
 
Test ch 2 2012
Test ch 2 2012Test ch 2 2012
Test ch 2 2012
fearonc
 
Cell Culture Techniques (Michael Aschner, Lucio Costa) (Z-Library).pdf
Cell Culture Techniques (Michael Aschner, Lucio Costa) (Z-Library).pdfCell Culture Techniques (Michael Aschner, Lucio Costa) (Z-Library).pdf
Cell Culture Techniques (Michael Aschner, Lucio Costa) (Z-Library).pdf
symbssglmr
 
Planet of viruses
Planet of virusesPlanet of viruses
Planet of viruses
Mario Christodoulou
 
Proceedings _ Part II _ Collection of Abstracts - 09-30-2015
Proceedings _ Part II _ Collection of Abstracts - 09-30-2015Proceedings _ Part II _ Collection of Abstracts - 09-30-2015
Proceedings _ Part II _ Collection of Abstracts - 09-30-2015
Jordan Zimmerman
 
Wiener and human augmentation may 2012
Wiener and human augmentation may 2012Wiener and human augmentation may 2012
Wiener and human augmentation may 2012
Greg_Adamson
 
Nanoweapons: Nanotechnology Weapons Of Genocide
Nanoweapons: Nanotechnology Weapons Of GenocideNanoweapons: Nanotechnology Weapons Of Genocide
Nanoweapons: Nanotechnology Weapons Of Genocide
brightrainbow1172
 
UNCLASSIFIED: A Mind/Brain/Matter Model Consistent with Quantum Physics and ...
UNCLASSIFIED:  A Mind/Brain/Matter Model Consistent with Quantum Physics and ...UNCLASSIFIED:  A Mind/Brain/Matter Model Consistent with Quantum Physics and ...
UNCLASSIFIED: A Mind/Brain/Matter Model Consistent with Quantum Physics and ...
swilsonmc
 
From neuronal information flow to connectomics
From neuronal information flow to connectomicsFrom neuronal information flow to connectomics
From neuronal information flow to connectomics
masanori shimono
 
Computational Epidemiology (Review) : Notes
Computational Epidemiology (Review) : NotesComputational Epidemiology (Review) : Notes
Computational Epidemiology (Review) : Notes
Subhajit Sahu
 
Computational neuroscience
Computational neuroscienceComputational neuroscience
Computational neuroscience
Nicolas Rougier
 
Politics and Pragmatism in Scientific Ontology Construction
Politics and Pragmatism in Scientific Ontology ConstructionPolitics and Pragmatism in Scientific Ontology Construction
Politics and Pragmatism in Scientific Ontology Construction
Mike Travers
 
Data science pitfalls
Data science pitfallsData science pitfalls
Data science pitfalls
Pedro Tabacof
 
Causality in the sciences: the conceptual toolbox for organisational diagnosis
Causality in the sciences: the conceptual toolbox for organisational diagnosisCausality in the sciences: the conceptual toolbox for organisational diagnosis
Causality in the sciences: the conceptual toolbox for organisational diagnosis
University of Amsterdam and University College London
 
HPHY 212 Week 3, lecture 2 publications-fall 2014
HPHY 212 Week 3, lecture 2   publications-fall 2014HPHY 212 Week 3, lecture 2   publications-fall 2014
HPHY 212 Week 3, lecture 2 publications-fall 2014
University of Oregon
 
The Genomics Revolution: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly (Confessions of a Pr...
The Genomics Revolution: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly (Confessions of a Pr...The Genomics Revolution: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly (Confessions of a Pr...
The Genomics Revolution: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly (Confessions of a Pr...
Emiliano De Cristofaro
 

Similar to A paradox of importance in network epidemiology (20)

Epidemic modelling an introduction
Epidemic modelling an introductionEpidemic modelling an introduction
Epidemic modelling an introduction
 
Underspecified Scientific Claims in Nanopublications
Underspecified Scientific Claims in NanopublicationsUnderspecified Scientific Claims in Nanopublications
Underspecified Scientific Claims in Nanopublications
 
24 The Evolution of Network Thinking
24 The Evolution of Network Thinking24 The Evolution of Network Thinking
24 The Evolution of Network Thinking
 
Artificial thought
Artificial thoughtArtificial thought
Artificial thought
 
A Review Of MRI Findings In Schizophrenia
A Review Of MRI Findings In SchizophreniaA Review Of MRI Findings In Schizophrenia
A Review Of MRI Findings In Schizophrenia
 
Test ch 2 2012
Test ch 2 2012Test ch 2 2012
Test ch 2 2012
 
Cell Culture Techniques (Michael Aschner, Lucio Costa) (Z-Library).pdf
Cell Culture Techniques (Michael Aschner, Lucio Costa) (Z-Library).pdfCell Culture Techniques (Michael Aschner, Lucio Costa) (Z-Library).pdf
Cell Culture Techniques (Michael Aschner, Lucio Costa) (Z-Library).pdf
 
Planet of viruses
Planet of virusesPlanet of viruses
Planet of viruses
 
Proceedings _ Part II _ Collection of Abstracts - 09-30-2015
Proceedings _ Part II _ Collection of Abstracts - 09-30-2015Proceedings _ Part II _ Collection of Abstracts - 09-30-2015
Proceedings _ Part II _ Collection of Abstracts - 09-30-2015
 
Wiener and human augmentation may 2012
Wiener and human augmentation may 2012Wiener and human augmentation may 2012
Wiener and human augmentation may 2012
 
Nanoweapons: Nanotechnology Weapons Of Genocide
Nanoweapons: Nanotechnology Weapons Of GenocideNanoweapons: Nanotechnology Weapons Of Genocide
Nanoweapons: Nanotechnology Weapons Of Genocide
 
UNCLASSIFIED: A Mind/Brain/Matter Model Consistent with Quantum Physics and ...
UNCLASSIFIED:  A Mind/Brain/Matter Model Consistent with Quantum Physics and ...UNCLASSIFIED:  A Mind/Brain/Matter Model Consistent with Quantum Physics and ...
UNCLASSIFIED: A Mind/Brain/Matter Model Consistent with Quantum Physics and ...
 
From neuronal information flow to connectomics
From neuronal information flow to connectomicsFrom neuronal information flow to connectomics
From neuronal information flow to connectomics
 
Computational Epidemiology (Review) : Notes
Computational Epidemiology (Review) : NotesComputational Epidemiology (Review) : Notes
Computational Epidemiology (Review) : Notes
 
Computational neuroscience
Computational neuroscienceComputational neuroscience
Computational neuroscience
 
Politics and Pragmatism in Scientific Ontology Construction
Politics and Pragmatism in Scientific Ontology ConstructionPolitics and Pragmatism in Scientific Ontology Construction
Politics and Pragmatism in Scientific Ontology Construction
 
Data science pitfalls
Data science pitfallsData science pitfalls
Data science pitfalls
 
Causality in the sciences: the conceptual toolbox for organisational diagnosis
Causality in the sciences: the conceptual toolbox for organisational diagnosisCausality in the sciences: the conceptual toolbox for organisational diagnosis
Causality in the sciences: the conceptual toolbox for organisational diagnosis
 
HPHY 212 Week 3, lecture 2 publications-fall 2014
HPHY 212 Week 3, lecture 2   publications-fall 2014HPHY 212 Week 3, lecture 2   publications-fall 2014
HPHY 212 Week 3, lecture 2 publications-fall 2014
 
The Genomics Revolution: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly (Confessions of a Pr...
The Genomics Revolution: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly (Confessions of a Pr...The Genomics Revolution: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly (Confessions of a Pr...
The Genomics Revolution: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly (Confessions of a Pr...
 

More from Petter Holme

Temporal network epidemiology: Subtleties and algorithms
Temporal network epidemiology: Subtleties and algorithmsTemporal network epidemiology: Subtleties and algorithms
Temporal network epidemiology: Subtleties and algorithms
Petter Holme
 
The big science of small networks
The big science of small networksThe big science of small networks
The big science of small networks
Petter Holme
 
Spin models on networks revisited
Spin models on networks revisitedSpin models on networks revisited
Spin models on networks revisited
Petter Holme
 
History of social simulations
History of social simulationsHistory of social simulations
History of social simulations
Petter Holme
 
Netsci 2017
Netsci 2017Netsci 2017
Netsci 2017
Petter Holme
 
Dynamics of Internet-mediated partnership formation
Dynamics of Internet-mediated partnership formationDynamics of Internet-mediated partnership formation
Dynamics of Internet-mediated partnership formation
Petter Holme
 
Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traff...
Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traff...Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traff...
Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traff...
Petter Holme
 
Emergence of collective memories
Emergence of collective memoriesEmergence of collective memories
Emergence of collective memories
Petter Holme
 
From land use to human mobility
From land use to human mobilityFrom land use to human mobility
From land use to human mobility
Petter Holme
 
Why do metabolic networks look like they do?
Why do metabolic networks look like they do?Why do metabolic networks look like they do?
Why do metabolic networks look like they do?
Petter Holme
 
Modeling the fat tails of size fluctuations in organizations
Modeling the fat tails of size fluctuations in organizationsModeling the fat tails of size fluctuations in organizations
Modeling the fat tails of size fluctuations in organizations
Petter Holme
 
From temporal to static networks, and back
From temporal to static networks, and backFrom temporal to static networks, and back
From temporal to static networks, and back
Petter Holme
 
Exploring spatial networks with greedy navigators
Exploring spatial networks with greedy navigatorsExploring spatial networks with greedy navigators
Exploring spatial networks with greedy navigators
Petter Holme
 

More from Petter Holme (13)

Temporal network epidemiology: Subtleties and algorithms
Temporal network epidemiology: Subtleties and algorithmsTemporal network epidemiology: Subtleties and algorithms
Temporal network epidemiology: Subtleties and algorithms
 
The big science of small networks
The big science of small networksThe big science of small networks
The big science of small networks
 
Spin models on networks revisited
Spin models on networks revisitedSpin models on networks revisited
Spin models on networks revisited
 
History of social simulations
History of social simulationsHistory of social simulations
History of social simulations
 
Netsci 2017
Netsci 2017Netsci 2017
Netsci 2017
 
Dynamics of Internet-mediated partnership formation
Dynamics of Internet-mediated partnership formationDynamics of Internet-mediated partnership formation
Dynamics of Internet-mediated partnership formation
 
Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traff...
Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traff...Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traff...
Modeling the evolution of the AS-level Internet: Integrating aspects of traff...
 
Emergence of collective memories
Emergence of collective memoriesEmergence of collective memories
Emergence of collective memories
 
From land use to human mobility
From land use to human mobilityFrom land use to human mobility
From land use to human mobility
 
Why do metabolic networks look like they do?
Why do metabolic networks look like they do?Why do metabolic networks look like they do?
Why do metabolic networks look like they do?
 
Modeling the fat tails of size fluctuations in organizations
Modeling the fat tails of size fluctuations in organizationsModeling the fat tails of size fluctuations in organizations
Modeling the fat tails of size fluctuations in organizations
 
From temporal to static networks, and back
From temporal to static networks, and backFrom temporal to static networks, and back
From temporal to static networks, and back
 
Exploring spatial networks with greedy navigators
Exploring spatial networks with greedy navigatorsExploring spatial networks with greedy navigators
Exploring spatial networks with greedy navigators
 

Recently uploaded

Composting blue materials - Joshua Cabell
Composting blue materials - Joshua CabellComposting blue materials - Joshua Cabell
Composting blue materials - Joshua Cabell
Faculty of Applied Chemistry and Materials Science
 
Pancreas_functional anatomy_enzymes.pptx
Pancreas_functional anatomy_enzymes.pptxPancreas_functional anatomy_enzymes.pptx
Pancreas_functional anatomy_enzymes.pptx
muralinath2
 
PART 1 & PART 2 The New Natural Principles of Newtonian Mechanics, Electromec...
PART 1 & PART 2 The New Natural Principles of Newtonian Mechanics, Electromec...PART 1 & PART 2 The New Natural Principles of Newtonian Mechanics, Electromec...
PART 1 & PART 2 The New Natural Principles of Newtonian Mechanics, Electromec...
Thane Heins
 
Plant Kingdom BioHack class 11 neet ....
Plant Kingdom BioHack class 11 neet ....Plant Kingdom BioHack class 11 neet ....
Plant Kingdom BioHack class 11 neet ....
anushkakharat13
 
Adjusted NuGOweek 2024 Ghent programme flyer
Adjusted NuGOweek 2024 Ghent programme flyerAdjusted NuGOweek 2024 Ghent programme flyer
Adjusted NuGOweek 2024 Ghent programme flyer
pablovgd
 
[1] Data Mining - Concepts and Techniques (3rd Ed).pdf
[1] Data Mining - Concepts and Techniques (3rd Ed).pdf[1] Data Mining - Concepts and Techniques (3rd Ed).pdf
[1] Data Mining - Concepts and Techniques (3rd Ed).pdf
PANDURANGLAWATE1
 
Rapid pulse drying of marine biomasses - Sigurd Sannan
Rapid pulse drying of marine biomasses - Sigurd SannanRapid pulse drying of marine biomasses - Sigurd Sannan
Rapid pulse drying of marine biomasses - Sigurd Sannan
Faculty of Applied Chemistry and Materials Science
 
MARIGREEN PROJECT - overview, Oana Cristina Pârvulescu
MARIGREEN PROJECT - overview, Oana Cristina PârvulescuMARIGREEN PROJECT - overview, Oana Cristina Pârvulescu
MARIGREEN PROJECT - overview, Oana Cristina Pârvulescu
Faculty of Applied Chemistry and Materials Science
 
Fish in the Loop: Exploring RAS - Julie Hansen Bergstedt
Fish in the Loop: Exploring RAS - Julie Hansen BergstedtFish in the Loop: Exploring RAS - Julie Hansen Bergstedt
Fish in the Loop: Exploring RAS - Julie Hansen Bergstedt
Faculty of Applied Chemistry and Materials Science
 
Classification and role of plant nutrients - Roxana Madjar
Classification and role of plant nutrients - Roxana MadjarClassification and role of plant nutrients - Roxana Madjar
Classification and role of plant nutrients - Roxana Madjar
Faculty of Applied Chemistry and Materials Science
 
AN EMPIRE ACROSS THE THREE CONTINENTS.pptx
AN EMPIRE ACROSS THE THREE CONTINENTS.pptxAN EMPIRE ACROSS THE THREE CONTINENTS.pptx
AN EMPIRE ACROSS THE THREE CONTINENTS.pptx
kalpnayadav03021986
 
Buy Xanax online now at chemworldstore.net
Buy Xanax online now at chemworldstore.netBuy Xanax online now at chemworldstore.net
Buy Xanax online now at chemworldstore.net
ludasams003
 
Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to the LAMP-observed Surficial Icy Regol...
Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to the LAMP-observed Surficial Icy Regol...Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to the LAMP-observed Surficial Icy Regol...
Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to the LAMP-observed Surficial Icy Regol...
Sérgio Sacani
 
Lunar Mobility Drivers and Needs - Artemis
Lunar Mobility Drivers and Needs - ArtemisLunar Mobility Drivers and Needs - Artemis
Lunar Mobility Drivers and Needs - Artemis
Sérgio Sacani
 
Testing the Son of God Hypothesis (Jesus Christ)
Testing the Son of God Hypothesis (Jesus Christ)Testing the Son of God Hypothesis (Jesus Christ)
Testing the Son of God Hypothesis (Jesus Christ)
Robert Luk
 
Direct instructions, towards hundred fold yield,layering,budding,grafting,pla...
Direct instructions, towards hundred fold yield,layering,budding,grafting,pla...Direct instructions, towards hundred fold yield,layering,budding,grafting,pla...
Direct instructions, towards hundred fold yield,layering,budding,grafting,pla...
Dr. sreeremya S
 
Accessing Data to Support Pesticide Residue and Emerging Contaminant Analysis...
Accessing Data to Support Pesticide Residue and Emerging Contaminant Analysis...Accessing Data to Support Pesticide Residue and Emerging Contaminant Analysis...
Accessing Data to Support Pesticide Residue and Emerging Contaminant Analysis...
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Center for Computational Toxicology and Exposure
 
SOFIA/HAWC+ FAR-INFRARED POLARIMETRIC LARGE-AREA CMZ EXPLORATION (FIREPLACE) ...
SOFIA/HAWC+ FAR-INFRARED POLARIMETRIC LARGE-AREA CMZ EXPLORATION (FIREPLACE) ...SOFIA/HAWC+ FAR-INFRARED POLARIMETRIC LARGE-AREA CMZ EXPLORATION (FIREPLACE) ...
SOFIA/HAWC+ FAR-INFRARED POLARIMETRIC LARGE-AREA CMZ EXPLORATION (FIREPLACE) ...
Sérgio Sacani
 
Gametogenesis: Male gametes Formation Process / Spermatogenesis .pdf
Gametogenesis: Male gametes Formation Process / Spermatogenesis .pdfGametogenesis: Male gametes Formation Process / Spermatogenesis .pdf
Gametogenesis: Male gametes Formation Process / Spermatogenesis .pdf
SELF-EXPLANATORY
 
SCIENCEgfvhvhvkjkbbjjbbjvhvhvhvjkvjvjvjj.pptx
SCIENCEgfvhvhvkjkbbjjbbjvhvhvhvjkvjvjvjj.pptxSCIENCEgfvhvhvkjkbbjjbbjvhvhvhvjkvjvjvjj.pptx
SCIENCEgfvhvhvkjkbbjjbbjvhvhvhvjkvjvjvjj.pptx
WALTONMARBRUCAL
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Composting blue materials - Joshua Cabell
Composting blue materials - Joshua CabellComposting blue materials - Joshua Cabell
Composting blue materials - Joshua Cabell
 
Pancreas_functional anatomy_enzymes.pptx
Pancreas_functional anatomy_enzymes.pptxPancreas_functional anatomy_enzymes.pptx
Pancreas_functional anatomy_enzymes.pptx
 
PART 1 & PART 2 The New Natural Principles of Newtonian Mechanics, Electromec...
PART 1 & PART 2 The New Natural Principles of Newtonian Mechanics, Electromec...PART 1 & PART 2 The New Natural Principles of Newtonian Mechanics, Electromec...
PART 1 & PART 2 The New Natural Principles of Newtonian Mechanics, Electromec...
 
Plant Kingdom BioHack class 11 neet ....
Plant Kingdom BioHack class 11 neet ....Plant Kingdom BioHack class 11 neet ....
Plant Kingdom BioHack class 11 neet ....
 
Adjusted NuGOweek 2024 Ghent programme flyer
Adjusted NuGOweek 2024 Ghent programme flyerAdjusted NuGOweek 2024 Ghent programme flyer
Adjusted NuGOweek 2024 Ghent programme flyer
 
[1] Data Mining - Concepts and Techniques (3rd Ed).pdf
[1] Data Mining - Concepts and Techniques (3rd Ed).pdf[1] Data Mining - Concepts and Techniques (3rd Ed).pdf
[1] Data Mining - Concepts and Techniques (3rd Ed).pdf
 
Rapid pulse drying of marine biomasses - Sigurd Sannan
Rapid pulse drying of marine biomasses - Sigurd SannanRapid pulse drying of marine biomasses - Sigurd Sannan
Rapid pulse drying of marine biomasses - Sigurd Sannan
 
MARIGREEN PROJECT - overview, Oana Cristina Pârvulescu
MARIGREEN PROJECT - overview, Oana Cristina PârvulescuMARIGREEN PROJECT - overview, Oana Cristina Pârvulescu
MARIGREEN PROJECT - overview, Oana Cristina Pârvulescu
 
Fish in the Loop: Exploring RAS - Julie Hansen Bergstedt
Fish in the Loop: Exploring RAS - Julie Hansen BergstedtFish in the Loop: Exploring RAS - Julie Hansen Bergstedt
Fish in the Loop: Exploring RAS - Julie Hansen Bergstedt
 
Classification and role of plant nutrients - Roxana Madjar
Classification and role of plant nutrients - Roxana MadjarClassification and role of plant nutrients - Roxana Madjar
Classification and role of plant nutrients - Roxana Madjar
 
AN EMPIRE ACROSS THE THREE CONTINENTS.pptx
AN EMPIRE ACROSS THE THREE CONTINENTS.pptxAN EMPIRE ACROSS THE THREE CONTINENTS.pptx
AN EMPIRE ACROSS THE THREE CONTINENTS.pptx
 
Buy Xanax online now at chemworldstore.net
Buy Xanax online now at chemworldstore.netBuy Xanax online now at chemworldstore.net
Buy Xanax online now at chemworldstore.net
 
Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to the LAMP-observed Surficial Icy Regol...
Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to the LAMP-observed Surficial Icy Regol...Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to the LAMP-observed Surficial Icy Regol...
Possible Anthropogenic Contributions to the LAMP-observed Surficial Icy Regol...
 
Lunar Mobility Drivers and Needs - Artemis
Lunar Mobility Drivers and Needs - ArtemisLunar Mobility Drivers and Needs - Artemis
Lunar Mobility Drivers and Needs - Artemis
 
Testing the Son of God Hypothesis (Jesus Christ)
Testing the Son of God Hypothesis (Jesus Christ)Testing the Son of God Hypothesis (Jesus Christ)
Testing the Son of God Hypothesis (Jesus Christ)
 
Direct instructions, towards hundred fold yield,layering,budding,grafting,pla...
Direct instructions, towards hundred fold yield,layering,budding,grafting,pla...Direct instructions, towards hundred fold yield,layering,budding,grafting,pla...
Direct instructions, towards hundred fold yield,layering,budding,grafting,pla...
 
Accessing Data to Support Pesticide Residue and Emerging Contaminant Analysis...
Accessing Data to Support Pesticide Residue and Emerging Contaminant Analysis...Accessing Data to Support Pesticide Residue and Emerging Contaminant Analysis...
Accessing Data to Support Pesticide Residue and Emerging Contaminant Analysis...
 
SOFIA/HAWC+ FAR-INFRARED POLARIMETRIC LARGE-AREA CMZ EXPLORATION (FIREPLACE) ...
SOFIA/HAWC+ FAR-INFRARED POLARIMETRIC LARGE-AREA CMZ EXPLORATION (FIREPLACE) ...SOFIA/HAWC+ FAR-INFRARED POLARIMETRIC LARGE-AREA CMZ EXPLORATION (FIREPLACE) ...
SOFIA/HAWC+ FAR-INFRARED POLARIMETRIC LARGE-AREA CMZ EXPLORATION (FIREPLACE) ...
 
Gametogenesis: Male gametes Formation Process / Spermatogenesis .pdf
Gametogenesis: Male gametes Formation Process / Spermatogenesis .pdfGametogenesis: Male gametes Formation Process / Spermatogenesis .pdf
Gametogenesis: Male gametes Formation Process / Spermatogenesis .pdf
 
SCIENCEgfvhvhvkjkbbjjbbjvhvhvhvjkvjvjvjj.pptx
SCIENCEgfvhvhvkjkbbjjbbjvhvhvhvjkvjvjvjj.pptxSCIENCEgfvhvhvkjkbbjjbbjvhvhvhvjkvjvjvjj.pptx
SCIENCEgfvhvhvkjkbbjjbbjvhvhvhvjkvjvjvjj.pptx
 

A paradox of importance in network epidemiology

  • 3. ‘40s Timeline 1947 First programmable computer 1948 The first simulation study, the Monte Carlo project
  • 4. ‘40s Timeline 1947 First programmable computer 1948 The first simulation study, the Monte Carlo project ‘50s Timeline 1952 The first computational epidemiology study: H Abbey. An examination of the Reed-Frost theory of epidemics. Hum. Biol. 24: 201–233. ‘70s Timeline 1978 The core group concept: JA Yorke, HW Hethcote, A Nold. Dynamics and control of the transmission of Gonorrhea. Sex. Transm. Dis. 5: 51–56.
  • 5. Timeline 1984 Birth of network epidemiology: DM Auerbach, WW Darrow, HW Jaffe, JW Curran, Cluster of cases of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome: Patients linked by sexual contact. Am. J. Med. 76: 487–492. ‘80s
  • 6. ‘40s Timeline 1947 First programmable computer 1948 The first simulation study, the Monte Carlo project ‘50s Timeline 1952 The first computational epidemiology study: H Abbey. An examination of the Reed-Frost theory of epidemics. Hum. Biol. 24: 201–233. ‘70s Timeline 1978 The core group concept: JA Yorke, HW Hethcote, A Nold. Dynamics and control of the transmission of Gonorrhea. Sex. Transm. Dis. 5: 51–56. 1984 Birth of network epidemiology: DM Auerbach, WW Darrow, HW Jaffe, JW Curran, Cluster of cases of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome: Patients linked by sexual contact. Am. J. Med. 76: 487–492. ‘80s Timeline 1995 Birth of computational network epidemiology: M Kretzschmar. Deterministic and stochastic pair formation models for the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. J. Biol. Syst. 3: 789–801. ‘90s
  • 7. Modeling Step 1: Compartmental models Susceptible meets Infectious Infectious With some probability or rate Susceptible or Recovered With some rate or after some time
  • 8. Modeling Step 2: Contact patterns time
  • 9. The core group idea Core groups bring a population over an epidemic threshold, even though it, on average, wouldn’t be. Being a member of a core group = being important for the disease. But any individual in the core group is insignificant for the core group. Theparadox
  • 10. Which one depend on outbreak scenarios and intervention scenarios. Many facets of importance
  • 11. Which one depend on outbreak scenarios and intervention scenarios. Many facets of importance
  • 13. The hypotheses Core groups can be captured by static network structure. Structure & dynamics can be coupled by the SIS survival time. For many vaccinees, the core group would be most important.
  • 14. The hypotheses For few vaccinees, hubs would be most important . . .
  • 15. The hypotheses . . . or bridges.
  • 16. The hypotheses Core groups can be captured by static network structure. Structure & dynamics can be coupled by the SIS survival time. Vaccination-impact very correlated with degree.
  • 17. Less paradoxical paradox n = 0 n = 1 n = 2 n = 3
  • 18. We get out of the cloud sometimes . . .
  • 19. Temporal networks P Holme, J Saramäki, 2012. Phys. Rep. 519: 97–125. P Holme, J Saramäki, 2013. Temporal Networks. Berlin, Springer.
  • 20. … of human interaction J Saramäki & al., 2013. PNAS 111: 942–947. LEC Rocha, F Liljeros, P Holme, 2010. PNAS 107: 5706–5711. LEC Rocha, F Liljeros, P Holme, 2011. PLoS Comp. Biol. 7: e1001109. M Karsai, J Saramäki & al. Phys. Rev. E 83: 025102. P Holme, 2005. Phys. Rev. E 71: 046119.
  • 21. Optimal static networks from temporal network data P Holme, 2013. PLoS. Comp. Biol. 9: e1003142. Time-window networks good, but be careful with the window size.
  • 22. Simplified pictures of temporal networks P Holme, F Liljeros, 2014. Sci. Rep. 4: 4999. time Beginning & end of relationships more important than, interevent times for SIR on empirical data.
  • 23. T H A N K Y O U Illustrations: Mi Jin Lee