International Agricultural Trade and Natural Resources: Global trends and illustrations for China
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Presentation done on June 17th 2017 during the US-China Oilseeds and Grains Forum. I discuss the role of agricultural international trade in terms of resources contents from the consumer and producer points of view, including in virtual water, land and fertilizers.
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International Agricultural Trade and Natural Resources: Global trends and illustrations for China
- 1. International Trade and Natural Resources 国际贸易和自然资源 A Sustainable Path toward Global Food Security 走向全球粮食安全的可持续道路 David Laborde Markets, Trade, and Institution Division International Food Policy Research Institute 市场、贸易与制度部 国际食物政策研究所 Beijing, China | 17th June 2017 2017年6月15日，中国北京
- 2. International Trade A Key Resource for Global Consumers
- 3. Achieving global food security thanks to international trade 通过国际贸易取得全球粮食安全 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 12.3% 13.9% 16.1% 18.2% 19.1% Share of produced calories crossing an international border 跨境生产的热量份额 Laborde and Deason (2015)
- 4. A new market structure: Share in global trade of calories 新的市场结构：热量在全球贸易中所占份额 Notes: 注释： HIC: High Income Countries HIC：高收入国家 MIC: Middle Income Countries MIC: 中等收入国家 LIC: Low Income Countries LIC： 低收入国家 Intra-EU trade excluded 包括欧盟国家内部贸易 Laborde and Deason (2015) MIC-LIC HIC MIC-LIC HIC 20% 34% 21% 25% Exporter Importer 1995-1996 MIC-LIC HIC MIC-LIC HIC 46% 20% 24% 10% Exporter Importer 2012-2013 进口商 进口商 出口商 出口商
- 5. Calorie content of exports and imports (2012) 进出口热量数据 0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 350,000,000 400,000,000 China European Union USA KCALINMALEADULTEQUIV. 成年男性千卡等量物 Exported Included in Imports 中国 欧盟 美国
- 6. Average distance travelled by traded proteins 贸易蛋白质所经历的平均路程 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Export Import Export Import Export Import Export Import Export Import Brazil China France India USA KILOMETERS 千米 1995-1997 2010-2012 Laborde and Deason (2015) 出口 进口 巴西 出口 进口 中国 出口 进口 法国 出口 进口 印度 出口 进口 美国
- 7. Bilateral regional structure of international trade in proteins (2012) 蛋白质国际贸易中的双边地域结构 Laborde and Deason (2015) Notes: Europe includes Russia North America includes Mexico 进口商 大洋洲 大洋洲 欧洲 北美 非洲
- 8. Trade and Farm Policies Still Matter
- 9. Nominal rate of protection in agriculture: A changing landscape 农业名义保护率: 变化中的格局 www.ag-incentives.orgAnderson and Valenzuela (2008) 农 业 名 义 保 护 率 发达国家 发展中国家
- 10. Nominal rate of protection in agriculture (2015): 农业名义保护率: 变化中的格局 Sectoral and regional differences 行业和地域差异 -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Animal Products Cereals Oilseeds Other Crops NOMINALRATEOFPROTECTION USA China Rest of High Income Countries Rest of Middle Income Countries Low Income Countries www.ag-incentives.org 中国 其余高收入国家 其余中等收入国家 畜禽业产品 谷类食品 油籽 其他作物
- 11. Nominal rate of protection in agriculture: 农业保护的票面汇率 China’s dynamics 中国的动态性 -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NominalRateofProtection 名义保护率 USA - Cereals USA - Oilseeds China - Cereals China - Oilseeds Rest of High Income Countries - Cereals Rest of High Income Countries - Oilseeds Rest of Middle Income Countries - Cereals Rest of Middle Income Countries - Oilseeds www.ag-incentives.org 美国 —— 谷类食品 中国 —— 谷类食品 其余高收入国家 —— 谷类食品 其余中等收入国家 —— 谷类食品 美国 —— 油籽 中国 ——油籽 其余高收入国家 ——油籽 其余中等收入国家 ——油籽
- 12. Value of price distortions for farmers: A global picture (2015) 价格扭曲对农民的影响：全球视角 (20) (10) - 10 20 30 40 50 60 China High Income Countries Rest of Middle Income Countries Low Income Countries BILLIONS,CURRENTUSD 货币单位：十亿 Oilseeds Cereals www.ag-incentives.org 油籽 谷类食品 其余中等收入国家 低等收入国家 高收入国家 高收入国家
- 13. From Trading Goods to Trading Resources 高收入国家
- 14. Input content of agricultural trade 农业贸易的投入内容 Land 能量 Water 水分 Solar Energy 太阳能 Fertilizers 肥料 Energy 能量 Labor劳动力 Capital资金
- 15. Heterogenous production process: Increasing gaps in fertilizer application rates 异构生产过程：肥料利用率间不断增大的差异 C. Lu and H. Tian (2017) 各 国 平 均 肥 料 利 用 率
- 16. Water content of primary crops trade for key regions 关键地区主要作物贸易的水资源数据 Notes: Blue, Green and Grey water added Intra-EU trade excluded Laborde (2017) 0 50 100 150 200 250 China European Union USA BILLIONCUBICMETER,立方米 Exported Saved by Imports Included in Imports 出口 进口所省 包括进口 中国 欧盟 美国
- 17. Land content of primary crops trade for key regions 关键地区主要作物贸易的土地数据 Laborde (2017) 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 China European Union USA HARVESTEDHA 收割量 Exported Saved by Imports Included in Imports 中国 欧盟 美国 出口 进口所省 包括进口
- 18. Nitrogenous content of primary crops trade for key regions 关键地区主要作物贸易的土地数据 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 China European Union USA TONSOFNITROGENOUS 氮含量吨数 Exported Saved by Imports Included in Imports 出口 进口所省 包括进口 中国 欧盟 美国
- 19. International Trade and Sustainable Global Food Security 国际贸易及可持续全球粮食安全 • An efficient way to balance heterogenous resources and needs.平衡异构资源及需求的有效方式 –Global trade has contributed to enhanced global food security and mitigated food costs. 全球贸易为加强全球粮食安全及降低食品成本做出了贡 献 –Undistorted comparative advantages: Good management of natural resources. 未扭曲的相对优势：对自然资源的良好管理
- 20. International Trade and Sustainable Global Food Security 国际贸易及可持续全球粮食安全 • Risk vs. Growth: Insulation vs. Efficiency 风险与成长：隔绝与效率 –Addressing short-term volatility issues should not jeopardize long-term sustainability goals. 处理短期不确定因素不应损害长期可持续目标 –Important guidelines for domestic support and market access disciplines, including for MC-11. 国内支持和市场准入原则，包括MC-11在内的重要指导方 针
- 21. Thank You 谢谢
Editor's Notes
- In a nutshell, developing countries were taxing farmers, developed countries were taxing consumers and protecting farmers + price management Increased income, developing countries move to more protection, from taxing to protecting farmers. Developed countries fix the policy mistakes of the past, when we start to see past mistakes in today’s developing countries Could we stop it?