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A.M. Best Company

       Current Perspectives on the Life
              Insurance Industry



J.P. Morgan Conference Call
January 16, 2009
What Happened And Where Are
         We Now?
Deterioration in macroeconomic fundamentals-
while the bad news has slowed, is there an end
in sight?
Extreme volatility in equity markets
Rising credit defaults/asset impairments
Significant spread widening/unrealized losses
Limited financial flexibility
Negative outlook on the life industry
A.M. Best Outlook – Life & Annuity

“The severe dislocation in the capital
markets, fueled most recently by the
bankruptcy filing [of Lehman] and liquidity
concerns at high-profile financial
institutions…has prompted A.M. Best Co.
to revise its rating outlook for the U.S. life
insurance industry to negative from
stable.”
U.S. Life Industry Capital
                    Trends
        350

        325

        300
$bill




        275

        250

        225

        200
              2004   2005      2006    2007    1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08

                            Cap ital & Sur p lus + AVR
Capitalization Trends
Industry had built up excess capital in prior years
Increased operating and financial leverage
Deployed through share buybacks, dividends
and some acquisitions
Excess capital eroded
Expectation of need to strengthen capital
Access to capital and liquidity is weak
Capitalization Trends (cont'd)
Looking for “creative” solutions
Use of reinsurance likely to increase
Investment Losses
Companies treating stat and GAAP
impairments differently (for the most part)
Unrealized losses-are they economic or
interest rate driven?
How long under water and by how much?
More impairments likely in 4Q
Variable Annuities
Living benefits driving sales
Lower sales & fee income
Higher reserve & capital charges
Rising costs of hedging; has it worked?
DAC unlocking
Companies revising product structures
Recent Industry Trends
Shift from protection to accumulation
products
Variable annuity products more complex
Industry consolidation at a relatively slow
pace
But, concentration at the top increasing
ERM has been tested
Where Are We Going?

More regulation likely
M&A/divestitures will accelerate
Choppy markets continue to pressure VA
writers
More impairments
Liquidity to remain tight
Is There Any Good News?

Retirement income opportunities still exist
International business continues to hold
promise
Stronger players will continue to thrive
All things must pass
Key Factors in Maintaining Ratings
Focus on preserving capital & maintaining
liquidity
Consistent operating profitability trends
Investment risk manageable
Proven ERM effectiveness during troubled
times
Risk appetite commensurate with capital
Diversification on both sides of the balance
sheet
Q&A

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Am Best Call Presentation 1 16 09

  • 1. A.M. Best Company Current Perspectives on the Life Insurance Industry J.P. Morgan Conference Call January 16, 2009
  • 2. What Happened And Where Are We Now? Deterioration in macroeconomic fundamentals- while the bad news has slowed, is there an end in sight? Extreme volatility in equity markets Rising credit defaults/asset impairments Significant spread widening/unrealized losses Limited financial flexibility Negative outlook on the life industry
  • 3. A.M. Best Outlook – Life & Annuity “The severe dislocation in the capital markets, fueled most recently by the bankruptcy filing [of Lehman] and liquidity concerns at high-profile financial institutions…has prompted A.M. Best Co. to revise its rating outlook for the U.S. life insurance industry to negative from stable.”
  • 4. U.S. Life Industry Capital Trends 350 325 300 $bill 275 250 225 200 2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 Cap ital & Sur p lus + AVR
  • 5. Capitalization Trends Industry had built up excess capital in prior years Increased operating and financial leverage Deployed through share buybacks, dividends and some acquisitions Excess capital eroded Expectation of need to strengthen capital Access to capital and liquidity is weak
  • 6. Capitalization Trends (cont'd) Looking for “creative” solutions Use of reinsurance likely to increase
  • 7. Investment Losses Companies treating stat and GAAP impairments differently (for the most part) Unrealized losses-are they economic or interest rate driven? How long under water and by how much? More impairments likely in 4Q
  • 8. Variable Annuities Living benefits driving sales Lower sales & fee income Higher reserve & capital charges Rising costs of hedging; has it worked? DAC unlocking Companies revising product structures
  • 9. Recent Industry Trends Shift from protection to accumulation products Variable annuity products more complex Industry consolidation at a relatively slow pace But, concentration at the top increasing ERM has been tested
  • 10. Where Are We Going? More regulation likely M&A/divestitures will accelerate Choppy markets continue to pressure VA writers More impairments Liquidity to remain tight
  • 11. Is There Any Good News? Retirement income opportunities still exist International business continues to hold promise Stronger players will continue to thrive All things must pass
  • 12. Key Factors in Maintaining Ratings Focus on preserving capital & maintaining liquidity Consistent operating profitability trends Investment risk manageable Proven ERM effectiveness during troubled times Risk appetite commensurate with capital Diversification on both sides of the balance sheet
  • 13. Q&A