We think that we fully understand the costs/benefits of the financial engineering sold by brokers until we don’t. Potential for Vulnerabilities in MLPs by Bank MS => MLPs rely on capital markets to continuously grow (low r, high yield). (Potentially Overvalued) Overall MLPs carry a greater interest rate risk concentration than equities. (what doesn’t appear to be priced yet) and how man-made accumulations in the debt-commodity linked products can distort the Supply and Demand in the Commodities ?
1. GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 1
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial
instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Please refer to important information, disclosures and qualifications at the end of this material.
Potential forVulnerability in MLPs
Source: Alerian, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management GIC. (1) Source: Bloomberg. (2) Alerian MLP Index yield and distribution growth is shown beginning June 30, 2006. *For more information
about the risks to Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) please see the Risks Considerations at the end of this material.
The GIC believes select MLPs* still provide exposure to a number of positive investment attributes even as energy prices have plummeted. These characteristics
include relatively attractive yields, exposure to the US energy infrastructure build out and a relatively low correlation to equity and fixed income markets. We
continue to see opportunities in this asset class, particularly in midstream MLPs.
• MLPs have soared in popularity over the last 10 years as a way to
own energy infrastructure assets
• They generated strong returns over the past five years; 87% total
return and 13% annualized total return based on the Alerian MLP
Index1
• However, they have experienced heightened volatility over the past
several months as energy prices have declined by 50%
Context MLP Yield Spreads Still Attractive Versus Treasuries2
As of April 3, 2015
• Investors should expect continued volatility in MLPs, but we think
midstream MLPs can continue to deliver attractive returns, and
investors should consider selectively adding on dips
• Lower capital spending by exploration and production (E&P) entities
driven by lower oil prices should affect the pace of growth for MLPs
• However, slowing growth does not mean distribution cuts; we
believe yields remain attractive for midstream MLPs
• While crude oil production growth in 2015 should be less than what
we experienced this year, MS & Co. Commodity Strategist Adam
Longson still anticipates the US adding ~700,000 barrels/day in 2015,
which should continue to support midstream project development
• In the context of a low interest rate environment, MLPs continue to
offer a compelling income story
Investment Thesis
MLP Distribution Growth Has Been Consistently Positive2
As of December 31, 2014
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Alerian MLP Index Yield Vs. US 10-Year Treasury Yield Spread
11.0%
10.1%
11.0%
2.5%
5.8% 5.6%
6.5% 6.3% 6.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Alerian MLP Index-Weighted Average Annual Distribution Growth
April 2015
2. GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 2
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial
instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Please refer to important information, disclosures and qualifications at the end of this material.
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Information Administration (EIA) and MS & Co. Commodity Research, DCube by Rystad Energy.
• Decline in commodity prices could lead to lower cash flow growth
that could put pressure on MLP distributions
• Cuts in capital spending by E&P companies could further weaken
sentiment for MLPs
• Rising rates could pose a greater risk to MLPs than to equities
• Infrastructure demand may not live up to expectations
• MLPs rely on capital markets to grow, which leaves them
susceptible to swings in investor demand
Key Risks
US Crude Oil Production Has Risen
As of December 31, 2014• Favor midstream MLPs, which offer fee-based, pipeline-centric
business models
• Within the midstream space, consider names with strong growth
prospects and relatively attractive valuations
• During the past several years, businesses focused beyond pipeline
and traditional midstream activities have adopted the MLP
structure; we see potential downside to MLP subgroups outside of
the midstream universe
Investment Ideas
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
US Crude Oil Production (thousands of barrels/day, left axis)
Exploration and Production CAPEX ($ billion, right axis)
April 2015
Potential forVulnerability in MLPs
3. GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE Page 3
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized. This material is not a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial
instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Please refer to important information, disclosures and qualifications at the end of this material.
Index Definitions
Risk Considerations
ALERIAN MLP INDEX This index is a composite of the 50 most prominent energy master limited partnerships (MLPs) that provides investors with an unbiased, comprehensive benchmark
for this emerging asset class. The index is calculated using a float-adjusted, capitalization-weighted methodology.
MLPs
Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) are limited partnerships or limited liability companies that are taxed as partnerships and whose interests (limited partnership units or limited liability
company units) are traded on securities exchanges like shares of common stock. Currently, most MLPs operate in the energy, natural resources or real estate sectors. Investments in MLP
interests are subject to the risks generally applicable to companies in the energy and natural resources sectors, including commodity pricing risk, supply and demand risk, depletion risk and
exploration risk.
Individual MLPs are publicly traded partnerships that have unique risks related to their structure. These include, but are not limited to, their reliance on the capital markets to fund growth,
adverse ruling on the current tax treatment of distributions (typically mostly tax deferred), and commodity volume risk.
The potential tax benefits from investing in MLPs depend on their being treated as partnerships for federal income tax purposes and, if the MLP is deemed to be a corporation, then its
income would be subject to federal taxation at the entity level, reducing the amount of cash available for distribution to the fund which could result in a reduction of the fund’s value.
MLPs carry interest rate risk and may underperform in a rising interest rate environment. MLP funds accrue deferred income taxes for future tax liabilities associated with the portion of MLP
distributions considered to be a tax-deferred return of capital and for any net operating gains as well as capital appreciation of its investments; this deferred tax liability is reflected in the
daily NAV; and, as a result, the MLP fund’s after-tax performance could differ significantly from the underlying assets even if the pre-tax performance is closely tracked.
Investing in commodities entails significant risks. Commodity prices may be affected by a variety of factors at any time, including but not limited to, (i) changes in supply and demand
relationships, (ii) governmental programs and policies, (iii) national and international political and economic events, war and terrorist events, (iv) changes in interest and exchange rates, (v)
trading activities in commodities and related contracts, (vi) pestilence, technological change and weather, and (vii) the price volatility of a commodity. In addition, the commodities markets
are subject to temporary distortions or other disruptions due to various factors, including lack of liquidity, participation of speculators and government intervention.
Equity securities may fluctuate in response to news on companies, industries, market conditions and general economic environment.
The value of fixed income securities will fluctuate and, upon a sale, may be worth more or less than their original cost or maturity value. Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, call risk,
reinvestment risk, liquidity risk, and credit risk of the issuer.
REITs investing risks are similar to those associated with direct investments in real estate: property value fluctuations, lack of liquidity, limited diversification and sensitivity to economic
factors such as interest rate changes and market recessions.
Because of their narrow focus, sector investments tend to be more volatile than investments that diversify across many sectors and companies.
Yields are subject to change with economic conditions. Yield is only one factor that should be considered when making an investment decision.
Disclosures
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management is the trade name of Morgan Stanley Smith Barney LLC, a registered broker-dealer in the United States. This material has been prepared for
informational purposes only and is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any security or other financial instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Past
performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
The securities/instruments discussed in this material may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor’s individual
circumstances and objectives. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management recommends that investors independently evaluate specific investments and strategies, and encourages investors to
seek the advice of a financial advisor. This material is based on public information as of the specified date, and may be stale thereafter. We have no obligation to tell you when information
herein may change. We and our third-party data providers make no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of this material. Past performance is no
guarantee of future results.
April 2015