It is no secret that the oil and gas industry’s latest downturn has rocked the economic and business landscapes for its participants.
In this first eLunch of our multi-part private equity in energy series, our oil and gas partners Denmon Sigler and Craig Vogelsang, along with guest speaker William Marko, managing director at Jefferies LLC, discussed the key trends and issues impacting the upstream oil and gas industry. The discussion included an assessment of the current investment climate, as well as other structural and risk allocation considerations for private equity investment in the upstream oil and gas sector.
6. Market Observations
1
4
3
2
The North American energy industry has responded rapidly to the decline in oil prices
Well performance in select plays continues to improve, driven by optimization in
completions
Compression in service costs will enable top-tier, onshore operators to produce attractive
returns
6
Cash M&A market has been “frozen”, but is awakening
5
Private capital firms have unprecedented amount of capital
Few quality assets sit in “weak” or distressed hands
7
Public company equity valuations are assuming a rapid recovery to $80 / Bbl NYMEX WTI
7. Equity Capital
Markets
E&P Market Update
Q1 2015 has been one of the most active quarters in the primary equity markets for E&P issuers in 5+
years as companies strive to de-lever and maintain liquidity through the cycle
─ 30 equity offerings raising ~$14 B year-to-date 2015
Companies that have issued equity over the past 90 days have generally outperformed those who have
not
Debt Capital
Markets
Interest rates remain at all time lows, and are expected to stay depressed for the foreseeable future
The energy debt capital markets have been active, but less so than equity capital markets as most
issuers are already overleveraged
─ Activity dominated by distressed issuers who have capitalized on first / second lien carve-outs to
“prime” their high-yield bonds
M&A Market
Virtually non-existent over the past 180 days due to a disconnect in bid / ask resulting from volatile
commodity prices
More recently, activity has begun to accelerate as commodity prices stabilize and companies feel
increasing pressure around liquidity / leverage
─ Gas assets will likely come to market before oil assets
Corporate M&A also gaining momentum as companies with meaningful resources view this as an
opportune time to make acquisitions; consolidation may be the only path to survival for certain distressed
companies
8. Crude Oil
Pricing
E&P Market Update (Cont’d)
Oil price has firmed slightly but there are potential headwinds:
─ Domestic production continues to grow; significant oil-focused rig reductions have been offset by
improved EURs and drilling efficiencies
─ U.S. running low on storage capacity
─ Lifting of sanctions on Iran represents another material headwind
Prices may fall further before improving, and may remain low for longer than the broader market
anticipates
Natural Gas
Pricing
U.S. natural gas price outlook equally challenging:
─ Domestic gas supply is enormous; major gas plays are becoming significantly de-risked
─ Improvements in completion design continue to reduce the marginal cost of production
─ Regionalization of natural gas pricing at the forefront, local differentials vary widely
─ Natural gas price “ceiling” at around $4.00 / MMBtu
Bank /
Borrowing Base
Impact
Impact of depressed commodity prices on borrowing bases is a key concern among operators
─ Banks are under increased regulatory / Fed scrutiny; unlike the fall in oil prices six years ago, they are
likely to respond differently this time
Oil and gas represents the only “problem child” in their portfolios
─ Jefferies expects limited action by banks in the Spring and active engagement in the Fall if prices
remain depressed
9. Historical Horizontal vs. Vertical Rigs Historical Rigs Drilling for Oil vs. Gas
Commodity Price Impact on Active Rig Count
Drilling Activity Overview
Key Points
Capex cuts by operators have had a
noticeable impact on rig count across
nearly every major U.S. basin
─ Several of the most active basins,
including the Permian, Eagle Ford,
and Bakken have seen rig count fall
by 50-60%
Over 1,900 rigs active at peak in 2014
in the U.S.
Currently 859 rigs active in the U.S.
Source: Baker Hughes North America Rotary Rig Count as of 6/12/2015.
Play Permian
Eagle
Ford
Bakken Marcellus Woodford Miss Lime Haynesville Niobrara Utica
Granite
Wash
Barnett Fayetteville
% ∆ -58% -50% -61% -21% -33% -70% -43% -52% -48% -74% -73% -44%
Total U.S. Rig Count
556
207
197
80
67
77
46
63
44
66
22
9
232
104
76
63
45
23
26
30
23
17
6
5
2014 High
Current
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
ActiveRigs
-
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
ActiveRigs
Horizontal Vertical
-
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
ActiveRigs Oil Gas
10. Historic Drop in U.S. Drilling Activity
Key Points
During 2015, the U.S.
land rig count has fallen
faster than at any other
time in the history of the
modern drilling industry
─ Rapid decline is likely
to have a significant
impact on overall
domestic production
U.S. Land Drilling Downcycles
Source: Baker Hughes rig count.
11. Large / Energy Focused
Private Equity
Mezzanine Funds
Institutional Investors
and Hedge Funds
Sovereign Wealth
Funds
North American
Pension Plans and
Retirement Funds
Family Offices
Large pools of capital
Significant dry powder and appetite for E&P
exposure
Ability to lead a transaction and execute quickly
Economic terms are improving as competition in the
space grows
Large pools of capital
Ability to lead a
transaction
Can move quickly
Ability to provide low cost
capital at scale
Can move quickly
Less focused on governance
Able to provide superior terms
relative to private equity
Large pools of capital
Interested in dis-intermediating private equity and investing
directly
Generally passive investors, less focused on governance
Generally move slowly but will move quickly with a lead
investor
Smaller investment
size
Can move quickly
Broad Universe of Potential Investors
The Pritzker
Group
Yorktown Partners
23. Essentially No M&A Market Over Past 180 Days
North American Onshore E&P Deal Volume Since 2011 ($B) (1)
Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Quarter Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 TD
Avg. WTI Spot $94 $102 $90 $94 $103 $93 $92 $88 $94 $94 $106 $98 $99 $103 $98 $73 $49 $57
Avg. Size ($MM) $623 $519 $1,308 $1,075 $888 $432 $1,711 $560 $502 $432 $343 $663 $496 $590 $693 $592 $233 $668
Q1 2015 M&A volume 90% below the average of the last five years
Virtually non-existent over the past 180 days due to a disconnect in bid / ask resulting from volatile commodity prices
More recently, activity has begun to accelerate as commodity prices stabilize and companies feel increasing pressure around
liquidity / leverage
─ Gas assets will likely come to market before oil assets
Corporate M&A also gaining momentum as companies with meaningful resources view this as an opportune time to make
acquisitions; consolidation may be the only path to survival for certain distressed companies
$14.9 $14.5
$27.5 $29.0 $27.5
$11.2
$39.4
$25.2
$7.0 $8.2
$10.3
$21.2
$16.9
$27.1
$30.5
$19.0
$1.9
$9.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
$-
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
DealCount
DealVolume
Outlook for Huge Market 2nd Half 2015 and Beyond
24. Historical WTI Oil Price (3-Year Forward Average vs. Spot Price)
Increased Stability in Oil Price with Favorable
Long-Term Outlook
Key Points
Commodity price environment has
stabilized
─ 3 year forward average has
traded within a tight range
between $55 - $65 / Bbl since
late December 2014
The long-term commodity outlook
reflected by the out years of the
NYMEX curve (2018+) has
stabilized between $65 - $70 / Bbl
Wall Street research is generally
bullish on oil prices going into 2016
and 2017
Wall Street Oil Price Estimates
% of Estimates
above NYMEX /
Avg. Premium
30% / $(1.67) 59% / $3.26 81% / $6.93
6/12/2015
3-Yr Fwd Avg:
$63.03
Spot Price:
$59.96
Note: NYMEX pricing as of 6/12/2015.
Source: Bloomberg, CapitalIQ and Wall Street research.
$35.00
$45.00
$55.00
$65.00
$75.00
$85.00
$95.00
Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
OilPrice($/Bbl)
3-Year Forward Average
Spot Price
$55.34
$65.69
$70.75
$57.01
$62.44 $63.82
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
2015 2016 2017
OilPrice($/Bbl)
Wall Street Range
Wall Street Average
NYMEX
25. Near Term Future
1 The drastic oil price decline has forced the industry to focus on efficiency rather than speed
2 Rig count may have bottomed out and could start growing in next few weeks
3
The A&D market is about to awaken from its slumber and deal activity should pick up
dramatically
5
Deal activity to grow due to desire to sell non-core assets, a dearth of properties in the
market over the past 6 months and the tidal wave of private equity money
4 There could also be limited and targeted M&A activity but not massive corporate M&A
6
Private equity will continue to be more flexible in terms of deal structure, type of ownership
and governance
26. Large / Energy Focused
Private Equity
Mezzanine Funds
Institutional Investors
and Hedge Funds
Sovereign Wealth
Funds
North American
Pension Plans and
Retirement Funds
Family Offices
Large pools of capital
Significant dry powder and appetite for E&P
exposure
Ability to lead a transaction and execute quickly
Economic terms are improving as competition in the
space grows
Large pools of capital
Ability to lead a
transaction
Can move quickly
Ability to provide low cost
capital at scale
Can move quickly
Less focused on governance
Able to provide superior terms
relative to private equity
Large pools of capital
Interested in dis-intermediating private equity and investing
directly
Generally passive investors, less focused on governance
Generally move slowly but will move quickly with a lead
investor
Smaller investment
size
Can move quickly
Broad Universe of Potential Investors
The Pritzker
Group
Yorktown Partners