80 مبادرة #تواصل_تطوير المحاضرة الثمانون من المبادرة مع المهندس / أحمد سعيد رفاعي مدير مشاريع وباحث في ادارة المشروعات بعنوان " دورة حياة تقدير التكلفة بمشروعات التشييد " الثامنة والنصف مساء توقيت مكة المكرمة السابعة والنصف توقيت القاهرة الإثنين 09 نوفمبر 2020 وذلك عبر تطبيق زووم Meeting ID: 812 2771 3116 https://us02web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZUvde6vrzgrG9Jy6qAJj1lOuxbHoNJOE0H- علما ان هناك بث مباشر للمحاضرة على وقناة يوتيوب https://www.youtube.com/user/EEAchannal للتواصل مع إدارة المبادرة عبر قناة تيليجرام الرابط https://t.me/EEAKSA رابط اللينكدان والمكتبة الالكترونية www.linkedin.com/company/eeaksa-egyptian-engineers-association/ رابط التسجيل العام للمحاضرات https://forms.gle/vVmw7L187tiATRPw9

2. Cost Estimation
During Project Life Cycle!

4. Bottom-Up (Engineering Build-Up)
Methodology and procedure.
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5
Cost Estimation Processes
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4
Cost Estimation Life cycle
Passes through the duration of work and projects with accurate changes and difficulties affecting
decision-making. It is very important that are given very high attention during all stages of project life
3
Cost Estimation Methodologies
Select the most appropriate cost estimating methodology (or combination of methodologies)
for the data available to develop a high-quality cost estimate.
2
Cost Estimation
An Introduction and definitions.1
Basic Course
Cost Estimation
06-Aug-19Eng. Ahmed Said

5. SUBTITLE TEXT HERE
Topics
Definition
1
Cost Estimating Types, and Purposes.
2
Estimation and Project Life Cycle.
3
Methodologies
4
Cost Estimation use.
5
06-Aug-19 Eng. Ahmed Said

6. 1.1. Estimating definition

7. 1.2. Cost Estimating

8. 1.4.‫التكلفة‬ ‫تقدير‬ ‫أغراض‬
1-‫المشروع‬ ‫ميزانية‬ ‫مراجعة‬ ‫أو‬ ‫تعديل‬ ‫أو‬ ‫لتطوير‬ ‫أساس‬ ‫توفير‬
2-‫ال‬ ‫مقابل‬ ‫واألداء‬ ‫التكاليف‬ ‫تحمل‬ ‫على‬ ‫القدرة‬ ‫تقييم‬ ‫على‬ ‫المديرين‬ ‫مساعدة‬، ‫خطط‬
3-‫لت‬ ‫المطلوب‬ ‫للتمويل‬ ‫تقديرات‬ ‫تقديم‬ ‫خالل‬ ‫من‬ ‫الميزانية‬ ‫تطوير‬ ‫و‬ ‫تفعيل‬ ‫دعم‬‫برنامج‬ ‫نفيذ‬
‫بكفاءة‬ ‫المشروع‬.
4-‫التجارة‬ ‫لدراسات‬ ‫بيانات‬ ‫توفير‬(‫األعمال‬ ‫و‬ ‫السوق‬ ‫دراسات‬)، ‫المستقلة‬ ‫والمراجعات‬ ،
‫األساسية‬ ‫والتغييرات‬.
Since we have a purpose so now, we can determine the use of cost estimation.
‫البديلة‬ ‫والحلول‬ ‫األنظمة‬ ‫اختيار‬ ‫وكذلك‬.
06-Aug-19 Eng. Ahmed Said

9. 1.7.Project Life Cycle.
Feasibility Design Construction
Bidding &
Awarding
Commissioning
The Project Life Cycle refers to the steps process that is followed by nearly all project managers or owner when moving through
phases of project completion. life cycle most people are familiar with. The Project Life Cycle provides a framework for managing any
type of project within a business. Leaders in project management have conducted research to determine the best process by which
to run projects.
Projects Phases

10. 9
ESTIMATING METHODS AND TOOLS
Pre Project
Work
Planning &
Evaluation
Design &
Engineering Procurement Construction
Constructability
Feasibility Study
Benchmarking
Life Cycle Costing
Operational
Estimating
Life Cycle Costing
Modularization
Contractor
Estimating
Owner-Contractor
Relationship
Evaluation
Criteria
Cost
Control
Constructability
Conflict Prevention Measures
Feasibility
Project Success Criteria
Order of Magnitude Estimating
Owner & A/E
ContractHistorical Data
TQM
VE
VEIC
Life Cycle
Costing
Close Out
VECP
TQM
Cost Comparison
ConstructionBidding & AwardingDesign Commissioning
Analogy Cost Estimating
Methodology
Parametric Cost
Estimating
Engineering Build-Up
Methodology
Lesson
Learned
Eng. Ahmed Said
Cost Estimation Level through projects life cycle
TopDown
BottomUp

11. Project
Phases
Detailed Estimation
Estimation
Methodology
Analogy
Parametric
Engineering
Build-Up
(Bottom Up -
Micro
Estimation)
Extrapolation
From Actual
Lesson Learned &
Normalization +
Modularization
Evaluation + Design
Bid & Awarding
Feasibility
Construction
Use Of Cost Estimating Methodology
Gross Estimation
11/24/2020Eng.AhmedSaid
10

13. Types of Construction Cost Estimates
Design
Estimates.
Bid
Estimates.
Control
Estimates.

14. Cost Estimating Accuracy
Accuracy:
Range from -25% to +70%.
Accuracy:
Range from -10% to +10%.
Accuracy:
Range from -1% to +5%.
Accuracy:
Range from -5% to +5%.
Three specific types based on the degree of accuracy are:
• 1) Order of Magnitude Estimate.
• Used with design stage and
before bidding.
• 2)Budget Estimate.
• With more details of design and
start bidding.
• 3)Definitive Estimate.[2].
• It has 2 figures
• 3a) Before construction.
• 3b) with construction control.

15. 14
11/24/2020 Eng. Ahmed Said
Project Cost Estimates Risk through the Project Lifecycle
Construction
Design and
Engineering
Planning and Evaluation
Pre-Project Work
Property Acquisition and Construction. As knowledge increases,
risk typically decreases.
The result is a series of successive estimates, each indicating a
greater level of confidence than the preceding estimate
Each updated estimate should reflect prevailing pricing for the
entire scope of work to be performed based on the Information
available at the time the estimate is prepared, and an
appropriate assessment of the risks at that time
Cost estimates originate during early planning stages of
project development, and are updated and refined at
strategic points throughout the project’s life cycle as
information becomes known.
IncreasingInformation&data
Low Risk
High Risk
Project Life Cycle Phases

16. 2.1. Parametric Cost Estimating (Modular ESTIMATING):
This method also called Modular Estimating, which uses historical data for modules
that are developed to predict the cost, duration and resources of similar projects.
‫ًا‬‫ض‬‫أي‬ ‫الطريقة‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫تسمى‬‫الوحدات‬ ‫تقدير‬‫للوحدات‬ ‫التاريخية‬ ‫البيانات‬ ‫تستخدم‬ ‫والتي‬ ،‫التي‬ ‫النمطية‬
‫مماثلة‬ ‫لمشاريع‬ ‫والموارد‬ ‫والمدة‬ ‫بالتكلفة‬ ‫للتنبؤ‬ ‫تطويرها‬ ‫تم‬.
This method is characterized by the speed of data extraction and the possibility of
repetition of previous projects with the difference of any of the variables
considered such as the time of implementation and the duration and size of the
project provided the stability of functional characteristics and quality.
‫اختالف‬ ‫مع‬ ‫السابقة‬ ‫المشاريع‬ ‫تكرار‬ ‫وإمكانية‬ ‫البيانات‬ ‫استخراج‬ ‫بسرعة‬ ‫الطريقة‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫تتميز‬‫من‬ ‫أي‬
‫الوظي‬ ‫الخصائص‬ ‫استقرار‬ ‫بشرط‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫وحجم‬ ‫ومدة‬ ‫التنفيذ‬ ‫وقت‬ ‫مثل‬ ‫المعتبرة‬ ‫المتغيرات‬‫فية‬
‫والجودة‬.
15

17. Parametric
cost
Modeling
Process
11/24/2020 Eng. Ahmed Said 16
Define Estimating
"Hypothesis"
Test
Relationships
Data Ok
Data not Comply
Confirm
Estimating
Relationship
Final Result
(Modular Estimate)
Parametric Estimation
Collect "relationship" Data
Evaluation & Normalize Data
Analyze Data For Candidate
Projects
Perform Statistical
(Regression) Analysis
Data Ok
Data not Comply
Data Ok
Start
Data Ok
Data not Comply
Historical Data collection ( previous projects)
Analyze Data
( previous & new projects)
Test Data & Result
( previous & new projects)

18. Example
• Estimated cost for proposed power station = 5 M /Mega Watt.
• Estimated cost for proposed hospital = 3 M/bed.
• Estimated cost for proposed Flat - Building = 2500 Le /m2.

19. 2.2. Analogy Cost Estimating Methodology (ANALOGOUS
ESTIMATING):
Analogous models are normally used for early estimates that are called order of
magnitude, conceptual, or ballpark estimates.[4]
• Analogous estimating depends on the accuracy of the historical data.
• This technique identifies a currently fielded system (comparable system) similar in
design and/or operation to the proposed system.
‫تسمى‬ ‫التي‬ ‫المبكرة‬ ‫للتقديرات‬ ‫المماثلة‬ ‫النماذج‬ ‫ستخدم‬ُ‫ت‬ ‫ما‬ ً‫ة‬‫عاد‬‫مقدار‬ ‫تقييم‬(Order of Magnitude)،
‫تقديرات‬ ‫أو‬ ، ‫المفاهيمية‬ ‫التقديرات‬ ‫أو‬‫النموذج‬[ .4]
‫الماثلة‬ ‫المشروعات‬ ‫تاريخ‬ ‫و‬ ‫التاريخية‬ ‫البيانات‬ ‫دقة‬ ‫على‬ ‫يعتمد‬ ‫المماثل‬ ‫التقدير‬.
‫متزامن‬ ‫ا‬ً‫ي‬‫ميدان‬ ‫ا‬ً‫م‬‫نظا‬ ‫التقنية‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫تحدد‬(‫للمقارنة‬ ‫قابل‬ ‫نظام‬)‫و‬ ‫التصميم‬ ‫في‬ ‫مشابه‬/‫للنظ‬ ‫التشغيل‬ ‫أو‬‫المقترح‬ ‫ام‬.
The analogy method uses the cost of a similar system, adjusts for differences,
and estimates the cost of the new system.
Called also Ballpark estimates is an approximation, made with a degree of
knowledge and confidence that the estimated figure falls within a reasonable
range of values. Also called rough order of magnitude.
18

20. •‫و‬ ‫والوظائف‬ ‫النوع‬
•‫و‬ ‫التصميم‬ ‫وخصائص‬ ‫المتطلبات‬
•‫و‬ ‫والموقع‬ ‫والحجم‬ ‫السعة‬
•‫و‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫قيود‬
•‫المتوقعة‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫وتطوير‬ ‫لتحسين‬ ‫الجودة‬ ‫توقعات‬.
2.2.1.Project
manager
Rules:[4]
‫م‬ ، ‫للمشروع‬ ‫الوظيفية‬ ‫أو‬ ‫البيئية‬ ‫الخصائص‬ ‫مراجعة‬‫ثل‬
‫وتأث‬ ‫الموارد‬ ‫وتوافر‬ ‫التنفيذ‬ ‫وتقنيات‬ ‫التصميم‬ ‫سمات‬‫على‬ ‫يرها‬
‫المشروع‬ ‫مراحل‬ ‫خالل‬ ‫المفترضة‬ ‫التكلفة‬.

21. Example

22. Example

23. 22
Example:
Estimate hotel cost based on the following:
Current 300 room cost = 300 Million.
Current 400 room cost = 390 Million.
Proposed hotel 450 room
To compare more information using a straight-line extrapolation or interpolation, then cost of proposed project or item
can be determined.
This done by obtaining the exponent for a particular class of construction project.
This is based on the following modified formula:
Τ𝐶 𝑝 𝐶𝑐 = ( Τ𝑆 𝑝 𝑆𝑐)
?
Τ390 𝑝 300 𝑐 = ( Τ400 𝑝 300 𝑐)
𝑥
Obtaining the exponent.
log Τ(390 𝑝 300 𝑐) = 𝑥 log( Τ400 𝑝 300 𝑐)
𝑥 =
log Τ(390 𝑝 300 𝑐)
log( Τ400 𝑝 300 𝑐)
= 0.912
For proposed hotel
Τ𝐶 𝑝 𝐶𝑐 = ( Τ𝑆 𝑝 𝑆𝑐)
0.912
Τ𝐶 𝑝 390 𝑐 = ( Τ450 𝑝 400 𝑐)
0.912
Cost of proposed hotel 450 room = 434.23 Million

24. 23
Example:
With graphic application can be represent the straight line defining the modeling system
and can be updated with future changes and more data.
Next figure is representing last example.

26. 4. The Two-Thirds Rule:
• Depends on the following
formula:
• 𝐷 𝑝 = 𝐷𝑐( Τ𝑁𝑝 𝑁𝑐)
0.66
where
𝐷 𝑝 = 𝐷𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡
𝐷𝑐 = 𝐷𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡
𝑁 𝑝 = 𝑆𝑖𝑧𝑒/𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡
𝑁𝑐 = 𝑆𝑖𝑧𝑒/𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑗𝑒𝑐𝑡
5. Range Estimate:
• Analyze these data and classify
them into three categories, one of
which is the most optimistic and
the other the most pessimistic.
The most likely project cost or
time is calculated.
• The most common formula for
this tool:
• 𝐷𝑒 =
𝑂+4𝑀+𝑃
6
where
𝐷𝑒 = 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
• 6.EXPERT JUDGMENT:
With the growing experience and the
development of technology, there are
many ways of collecting expert
information on the subjects studied,
including Delphi technique, interview,
focus group, facilitated workshops and
meetings.
This done in the same place or by
social media.
.
• Another tools

27. 2.3. Engineering Build-Up Methodology:
• Sometimes referred to as “grassroots” or “bottom-up” estimating,
• The engineering build-up methodology produces a detailed
project cost estimate that is computed by estimating the cost of
every activity in a Work Breakdown Structure, summing these
estimates, and adding appropriate overheads.
• The cost estimator’s role is to review the grassroots
estimate for reasonableness, completeness, and
consistency with the project Ground Rules &
Assumptions (GR&A).
•‫المعقول‬ ‫حيث‬ ‫من‬ ‫فرعي‬ ‫نشاط‬ ‫لكل‬ ‫األساسي‬ ‫التقدير‬ ‫مراجعة‬ ‫في‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫مقدر‬ ‫دور‬ ‫يتمثل‬‫واالكتمال‬ ‫ية‬
‫للمشروع‬ ‫األساسية‬ ‫واالفتراضات‬ ‫القواعد‬ ‫مع‬ ‫واالتساق‬(GR&A).
26

28. Cost
Estimate
Tasks
Project
Definition
Tasks
Task 6:
Select/Build
Cost
Model/Tool
Task 7:
Gather and
Normalize
DataTask 8:
Develop the
Cost
Estimate
Task 9:
Develop and
Incorporate
the Cost Risk
Assessment
Task 10:
Document the
Cost Estimate
Task 11: Present
the Cost Estimate
Results
Task 12:
Update the Cost
Estimate
as Required
Task 1:
Receive
Customer
Request and
Understand
the Project
Task 2:
Build or
Obtain a
Work
Breakdown
Structure
(WBS)
Task 3:
Define or
Obtain the
Project
Technical
Description
Task 4:
Develop
Ground Rules
and
Assumptions
Task 5: Select
Cost
Estimating
MethodologyCost
Estimation
Processes
Cost Estimation Process
11/24/2020Eng.AhmedSaid
27
This include
Determining
estimating
structure (CBS)
This after conduct
sensitivity analyses
Depend on which
phase you are.
Start Here
Will be detailed
more with procedure
steps in advanced
course

29. 06-Aug-19 Eng. Ahmed Said

32. ‫الزمني‬ ‫الجدول‬ ‫إلعداد‬ ‫معلومات‬ ‫مصدر‬.
5
‫الموارد‬ ‫من‬ ‫األنشطة‬ ‫متطلبات‬ ‫بدقة‬ ‫تحدد‬.
4
‫النفقات‬ ‫ومراقبة‬ ‫تخطيط‬ ‫أساس‬
3
‫ال‬ ‫لنطاق‬ ‫ا‬ً‫ق‬‫دقي‬ ‫ا‬ً‫ف‬‫تعري‬ ‫المقدرة‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫تعطي‬‫عمل‬.
2
‫وعملية‬ ‫عمل‬ ‫وقطعة‬ ‫لعنصر‬ ‫المال‬ ‫رأس‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ‫تقييم‬
‫معين‬ ‫ومنتج‬ ‫ونشاط‬.
1
• It considered also the base for funding studies and strategies
required in that matter.
• What if scenarios.
• To assess rate of return and profitability.
• To compare alternatives.
• Compare to other estimates to validate accuracy.
• Comparative type of estimate is called an
independent cost estimate (ICE).
• Baseline for scope and change control.
• For measuring deviation.
• Working as early warning system for management.
Result
and cost break-up for deliverables
Result
such as labor, material, equipment, tools and sub-
contractors.
Result
1.5‫التكلفة‬ ‫تقدير‬ ‫استخدام‬
• Provide an order-of magnitude assessment of the
number of labors by trade, material and equipment
required on a project.
• Useful planning tool for developing schedule.
• It can turn into activity-based cost/schedule if logic
sequence is applied.
Result
Eng. Ahmed Said

33. ‫اإلنتاجية‬ ‫لتقييم‬ ‫األساسية‬ ‫المعلومات‬ ‫توفير‬
‫المكتسبة‬ ‫والقيمة‬.
9
‫المخاطر‬ ‫تقييم‬ ‫أساس‬.
8
‫الشراء‬ ‫إجراءات‬ ‫أساس‬.
7
‫النقدي‬ ‫التدفق‬ ‫لحسابات‬ ‫مدخالت‬ ‫توفير‬.
6
• Base for biding and proposals assessment.
• Support buy-make technique.
• Support contract type choice.
Result
• Estimating process help to assess contingencies
required.
Result
• Base for other estimates.
Result
1.5. Use of Cost Estimation
• To calculate the funding gabs and Minimum
Budget Required (MBR).
• To calculate the break-even point and payback
period.
• To establish a progress payment schedule and
income plan.
Result
06-Aug-19 Eng. Ahmed Said

34. 36
37
38
39
17
18
19
20
8
10
10
11
6
7
8
9
13
8
5
1
20
20
20
20
Tender Stage
Preliminary Engineering & Procurement
Allowances in design
Actual Cost
Cost Life Cycle (Cost Maturity)
Material Labor Equipment
Other Contengencies OH&P
Executing Close Out
Tender Stage
Preliminary
Engineering &
Procurement
Allowances
in design
Actual
Cost
Material 36 37 38 39
Labor 17 18 19 20
Equipment 8 10 10 11
Other 6 7 8 9
Contengencies 13 8 5 1
OH&P 20 20 20 20
Total Cost 80 80 80 80
Total Price 100 100 100 100
ConstructionPre-construction
Planning

35. 62
78
98
45
68
56
55
28
62
25% 25% 25%
Historical Costs
Data Category
Cost Data
Data Type
Labor Costs
Existing Case/Cost
Estimating Requirements
Data Sources
Basic Accounting
Records
Cost Reports
Historical Databases
and Libraries Contracts
(Secondary)
Cost Proposals
(Secondary)
Cost Analysis
Estimator
1. Physical Characteristics
2. Performance Characteristics
3. Performance Metrics
4. Technology Descriptors
5. Major Design Changes
6. Operational Environment
Functional
Specialist
Technical/Operational Data
Technical
Databases Engineering
Specifications
Engineering
Drawings
End User and
OperatorsPerformance/Functional
Specifications
Master Equipment
Lists
Project Data
1. Development and Production Schedules
2. Quantities Produced
3. Production Rates
4. Equivalent Units
5. Breaks in Production
6. Significant Design Changes
7. Anomalies (e.g., strikes, natural disasters, etc.)
Project Database Functional Organizations
Project Management
Plan Major
Subcontractors
Three Principal Types of Data