This document discusses climate services, which involve producing, translating, transferring, and using climate knowledge and information to inform climate-smart decision making. It provides an example of how a medical service like a CAT scan involves fundamental research, applied research, technicians to operate equipment, and doctors to interpret results for patients. Climate services similarly require integrating climate research with other fields and training people across information networks to effectively communicate and apply climate data. The document also discusses challenges with using climate models to inform adaptation, given uncertainties in projections far into the future at local scales. It proposes a new "Ginkgo biloba" paradigm of adapting flexibly to a range of plausible current and future conditions instead of relying on perfect predictive information.

1. Climate Services for
Improving Adaptation to
Climate Variability and Change
Walter E. Baethgen
Director, Regional and Sectorial Research Program
Leader, Latin America and Caribbean
IRI, Columbia University, New York

2. Walter E. Baethgen 2015
http://www.climate-services.org/
1. Production, Translation, Transfer, and Use
2. Climate-informed decision making, policy and planning
“Climate services involve the Production,
Translation, Transfer, and Use of Climate Knowledge
and Information in climate-informed decision making
and climate-smart policy and planning.”
Climate Services: Definition

3. Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Climate Services: Knowledge Production, Translation, Transfer, and Use
Example of a Medical Service
Problem: Patient with Headache
Doctor’s recommendation: CAT Scan

4. Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Example of a Medical Service: CAT Scan
All links are needed
(eliminate one and the chain falls)
Each one can give information
to the Patient (end user) based
on their knowledge and
experiences
Only one can give the Patient
"ACTIONABLE” information
The patient still decides
What to do (maybe nothing)
Evaluation?
Fundamental research on X-Rays
(didn’t think / didn’t care about applications)
Basic research on
Digital Geometric Processing
(didn’t think / didn’t care about applications)
Applied research that
connected images with edemas
(thought about applications)
Technician: CAT scanner operator
(Operational)
Doctor / Neurologist
Patient
Private Sector
(Opportunity for investing in CAT Scanner)
Climate Services: Knowledge Production, Translation, Transfer, and Use

5. Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Translation, Transfer and Use: Information Networks
(Very) Simplified Example in Agriculture
• Understand the Network (links, processes)
• Identify weak links (inexistent)
• Identify “key” nodes for effective interaction
Requires Research
International
Research
Climate
Local
University
Agricultural
Research
Institute
Advisers
Farmers
Farmer
Ministry
Regional
Research
Institute
International
Research
Agriculture
Local
University
Local
University
Rural Social
Research
Institute
Climate
Research
Institute
Extension
Service,
NGO
Advisers
Ministry
Insurance
Agribusiness
Meteorological
Service
Financial
Services

6. Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Information and
DECISION
SUPPORT
SYSTEMS
Climate services include Production, Translation,
Transfer, and Use of Climate Knowledge:
Integrate Climate with Agronomy, Economy, Markets

7. Walter E. Baethgen 2015
FEB 1- 10 FEB 11 – 20 FEB 21 – 28
MAR 1- 10 MAR 11 – 20 MAR 21 - 28
Uruguay 2015:
INIA – IRI (IDSS) = SNIA
Provided information to
Ministry of Agriculture
Soil Water Content
(Translate Climate into Agronomy)
Original Soil Water Balance
per Soil Type
Decisions: per Administrative
Unit (parish / county)
5 May:
Ministry declared
Emergency in
4 Eastern provinces
-Special Credit for feed
-Prioritize response
APR 1- 10 APR 11 – 20 APR 21 - 28

8. Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Climate Services for Improving Adaptation to CC:
Adapt to What? Future Climate in my Region?
Climate Change Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs)

9. Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Adapt to What?
Climate Change Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs)
1. Great advances in science,
but still lots to understand:
Limitations of the Models
Example: over / underestimation of
rainfall observed in 1900 - 2010
2. Key Input:
GHG Emissions
Assumptions:
(e.g., in 2080-2100)
Technologies?
Energy Sources?
Deforestation rates?
Population?
Uncertainties
Socioeconomic Scenarios: optimistic to pessimistic

10. Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Connect RCPs with Climate Models: IPCC Scenarios
Example: Change in Global Temperature

11. Walter E. Baethgen 2015 Giannini et al., 2007
For Precipitation Uncertainties are much larger
East Africa
This is for large “Windows”
At Local level Uncertainties are much larger
East Africa:
90% of Climate
Models agree in sign
of change (increase)
Individual runs and mean

12. Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Scenarios for Adaptation to Climate Change
Very far in the future: 2080-2100 (and urgent needs)
Very coarse in spatial scale (and local needs)
and downscaling does not help
Very uncertain (especially rainfall, local level)
Hard to consider in actual decisions

13. Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Current Paradigm: “PREDICTIVE” (Noah’s Ark)
(R. Terra, 2014, in prep)
Perfect Information about the Future: a Climatic Cataclism is coming
Action: Build infrastructure and save Biodiversity
But: We do not have (will not have) Perfect Information of the Future Climate
Need a new Paradigm

14. Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Paradigm 2: Ginkgo biloba

15. Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Ginkgo biloba
Approx 1,000m from epicenter in Hiroshima
2 million years of Evolution
Adapted (resilient) to a wide range of conditions
Unprecedent extreme event (A-bomb)
Somehow 6 Ginkgos Survived
Paradigm: Adapt with “flexibility”
• We will not have “perfect” information
• Adapt to a range of plausible conditions
• Start by Adapting to today’s conditions
Paradigm 2: Ginkgo biloba
(Rafael Terra, 2014, in prep)

16. Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Climate Services for Agriculture
Include: Production, Translation, Transfer, and Use
Consideration of Information Networks (vs. just “end users”)
Production requires Research (basic and applied)
Translation, Transfer, and Use require:
Integration of Climate with other relevant Information
Training on communication, translation, integration, use
Climate Services and Adaptation: New Paradigm
Adapt with Flexibility (starting with today’s climate)
Translation of climate information into Agronomic information

17. Walter E. Baethgen 2015
Thank you
Walter E. Baethgen
Director, Regional and Sectorial Research Program
Leader, Latin America and Caribbean
IRI, Earth Institute
Columbia University, New York
baethgen@iri.columbia.edu