Early Warning Systems for the Management of the Coffee Leaf Rust Disease

1. Early Warning System
for management of Coffee Leaf Rust

2. The problem: Coffee Leaf Rust in Jamaica
• CLR is caused by the fungus Hemieleia
vastrix which infects coffee leaves and
produce millions of spores.
• High levels of infection can kill the leaf
which falls off the plant reducing the
amount of food available for coffee
berries to develop.
• Defoliation of coffee plants caused by
the CLR fungus reduces coffee yields.

3. Effects of CLR in Jamaica
• Jamaican Coffee Industry lost
US$5 million in revenue to CLR
disease from the 2012-2013
crop resulting in 30% of farm
labour force being laid off.
• CLR outbreaks are highly
dependent on climatic factors,
health of coffee plant and crop
phenology.
• CLR disease is also influenced
by socio-economic factors
which influence farmers’
decision to take preventative
actions.

4. THE DISEASE TRIANGLE & PYRAMID
For a fourth factor such as humans, vectors and time
Source: Francl L. J. (2001). Plant Health Instructor.
Plant disease caused by a biotic agent absolutely requires the interaction of a susceptible host, a
virulent pathogen, and an environment favorable for disease development. Disease is prevented by
elimination of any one of these three components.

5. Spores
deposited
Movement Germination
Spores
germinated
Colonies
established
Penetration
in the tissue
Spores
disseminated
Dissemination
Spores
produced
The Rust Life Cycle & some of the most important factors
affecting it (Avelino et al., 2004)
Rain
Wind
Fruit load
Fruit
load
Soil
humidity
Soil
humidity
Lesions
Colonization
of tissue
Sporulation
Leaf
area
Temperature
Temperature
Temperature
16-18° C
Moisture
on leaf
Moisture
on leaf
Sunlight
Parasitism Complete
resistance

6. Management of CLR in Jamaica
 Arabica typica is most preferred variety in Jamaica for its cup quality
 However, A. typica is susceptible to CLR
 Coffee rust must be managed as a continuous epidemic on a
perennial crop,
Any factor that can reduce sporulation, spore dispersal, or infection,
even a small amount, can mitigate the epidemic.
Good cultural management is paramount, healthy plants are more
tolerant to rust but there are no simple rules to follow.
The varieties grown, the character of the soils, the amount and
distribution of rainfall, and numerous other factors all interact to
dictate what is required to manage rust.

7. Climate Products Towards the
Management of CLR in Jamaica
1. Bush Fire Index (KBDI)
2. Improved Rainfall Climatologies
3. Improved Extreme Rainfall Diagnostics / Forecasting
4. Improved Seasonal Rainfall Prediction
• All of the above result from feedback from focus study groups
and institutional stakeholders

8. 2. Improved Rainfall Climatologies
15 station 10-year continuous observations (no missing days) 55 stations represented in 10 year record, but with
scattered missing days
Weather station locations used in analysis
Interpolated maps

9. Modeled high resolution gridded map based on the 55-stations AND elevation.
• Custom tailored: contours, colors, regions, etc…

10. 3. Improved Extreme Rainfall Diagnostics / Forecasting
May 25, 2004
June 9, 2002

11. Hurricane Sandy backward trajectory

12. 4. Improved Seasonal Rainfall Prediction
tradewinds
Sea temp gradients
Integrate new regional predictors based on weather-scale diagnostics

13. QUESTIONS?