CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.

1. 1
Threat Update: May 15, 2018
Iran’s Parliament moved to strengthen the country’s ballistic missile
program amid intensified international pressure to scale back its missile
program. The Parliament allocated an additional $140 million to the
Defense Ministry’s budget tied to the ballistic missile program. Regime
officials consider ballistic missiles a core element of Iran’s national
security doctrine and are unlikely to cede deterrent capabilities.
Iran
An al Qaeda-linked group in northeastern Libya rebranded to garner
greater support against the anti-Islamist Libyan National Army (LNA).
The Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna, which includes Ansar al Sharia
Derna, dissolved into the Derna Protection Force. The rebranding is a
response to the LNA’s controversial offensive to seize Derna city, the last
anti-LNA bastion in eastern Libya. Moderate Islamist factions across
Libya may support the Derna Protection Force, increasing the risk of
broader civil conflict in Libya and decreasing the likelihood of a national-
level political settlement.
Libya

2. 2
Threat Update: May 15, 2018
ISIS in Somalia increased its rate of attacks against the U.S.-backed
government in Mogadishu. ISIS has claimed at least five attacks against
government officials in Mogadishu since April 25. ISIS had previously
claimed only one attack in Mogadishu in the first four months of 2018. ISIS
may be recruiting al Shabaab militants to expand its operations in
southern Somalia.
Somalia
Yemen
The Saudi-led coalition began an offensive to push the frontline along
Yemen’s western coast in order to retake al Hudaydah port. Emirati-
backed forces advanced into southern al Hudaydah governorate
following successful operations in Taiz governorate. The offensive will
progress in the near term due to coalition air and armored support but
may stall as it encounters more fierce resistance closer to al Hudaydah
port.

3. Libya
3
LNA advance into central Derna sparks
resistance
Prepared by Wiam Aimade
Al Fata’ih
Derna flour factory
Al Heela Sidi Aziz
Derna
Martuba
in Dhahr al Ahmar
al Fata’ih and Martuba
Dhahr al Ahmar
Aziz
al Heela
in al Heela
in al Heela
Al Dhahr al Ahmar .

4. Yemen
4Tomás Padgett Perez
Saudi-led coalition begins operations to seize
al Hudaydah port
1. 08 MAY: Saudi-led coalition-
backed forces seized control of al
Barh city and major roadways
leading from Taiz governorate to al
Hudaydah governorate.
2. 10 MAY: Coalition-backed forces
seized control of Mawz’a district
center, Taiz governorate.
3. 11 MAY: Coalition-backed forces
attacked al Houthi forces in al Jarahi
district, southern al Hudaydah
governorate.
4. 13 MAY: Coalition-backed forces
captured al Hima port in al Tuhayat
district, southwestern al Hudaydah
governorate.
5. 14 MAY: Emirati forces launched
“Operation Red Thunder” to seize
an al Houthi command center in al
Faza region along al Hudaydah
governorate’s Red Sea coast.
1
3
5
4
2
Al Hudaydah Port
Al Barh City
Mawz’a District
Al Jarahi District
Faza Region
Al Tuhayat District

5. Horn of
Africa
5Matthew Cassidy
ISIS increases attacks in Mogadishu
3
1
2
4
1. 24 APR: Somali authorities
arrested an ISIS militant. The militant
switched his allegiance from al
Shabaab to ISIS.
2. 26, 30 APR: ISIS claimed the
assassinations of two Somali
intelligence agents.
3. 03 MAY: ISIS claimed the
assassination of a Somali National
Army soldier.
4. 07, 15 MAY: ISIS claimed the
assassinations of two Somali
intelligence agents.
Bakara Market
Multiple attacks
Single attack
Arrest

6. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
6

7. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Manager
7
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Iran Analysts
Marie Donovan
Mike Saidi
Nicholas Carl
Digital Content
Associate
Katie Donnelly