The document provides economic forecasts for Australia and internationally in 2016 from ANZ economists Justin Fabo and Tom Kenny. Some key points:
- For Australia, forecasts include the AUD falling to US64 cents, interest rates of 1.5%, a 11% decline in business investment, household consumption up 2.8%, and inflation of 1.5%.
- International forecasts include modest growth for China and the global economy, a continued economic recovery in the US, and low inflation across developed economies.
- Downside risks to the Australian economy include a sharper than expected fall in commodity prices and housing market downturn. Upside risks include stronger non-mining investment and growth in Asia improving terms of trade
The document provides an equity market outlook and analysis for the period of Diwali to Diwali (October 2016 to October 2017). It notes that large caps underperformed with returns of 5-6% last year while midcaps saw stronger returns of 19-20%. For the current year, it expects lower double digit returns for large caps and 15-20% returns for mid and small caps. It recommends focusing on sectors with good private demand like financials, automobiles, and consumer durables. Large caps are seen as providing stability but lower returns compared to midcaps where returns of 15% are expected over the next year for those with a higher risk appetite and 2-3 year investment horizon.
- The document provides an economic and market summary for the week of November 14-18, 2016. It discusses developments in global markets, the Indian economy and stock market, and provides commentary on sectors and asset classes.
- Key points include the expectation of US Federal rate hikes in December, the impact of India's demonetization on various industries, and an outlook that Indian stock markets will see further declines in the short-term but provide buying opportunities. Debt markets are also seen as favorable due to expected interest rate cuts.
The document summarizes recent news and developments in global markets and the Indian economy from October 31 - November 4, 2016. It discusses the impact of the FBI announcement regarding Hillary Clinton's emails on US and global markets. It also covers the upcoming US presidential election and its potential effects. Domestically, it discusses recent inflation data, bank earnings, and the progress of GST implementation in India. Globally, it mentions recent economic data and central bank decisions in the US, UK, Eurozone, and China.
The document provides a weekly market outlook report covering:
1) The Nifty index remained volatile and closed flat as traders awaited third quarter earnings and the upcoming union budget. It closed above 12,350 and formed a small bullish candle on the daily chart.
2) For the week, the Nifty traded in a range of over 100 points and formed a bullish candle on the weekly scale. Experts say the sideways trade will continue next week as traders watch the 12,300 level.
3) Among sectors, banking stocks rose led by State Bank of India and ICICI Bank, while the Nifty Pharma index gained over 3%. FII buying was seen for the week.
The document discusses the outlook for the global economy and financial markets in 2016. It makes the following key points:
1) The global economy is transitioning from a period dominated by US growth to a more balanced growth environment across developed and emerging economies. This "Great Rebalancing" began in 2015 and is expected to continue in 2016, leading to more convergence in economic outcomes.
2) Growth is expected to be similar across major developed economies in 2016, including the US, Europe, Japan, and UK, marking a change from recent years where the US significantly outpaced other regions.
3) European and Japanese equities are expected to outperform US equities in 2016, driven by expectations for stronger earnings growth
The document provides an overview and outlook across various asset classes and sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- Domestic equity markets have seen modest gains of around 8.5% year-to-date despite recent volatility due to political tensions. Bond yields have fallen in India on expectations of further rate cuts.
- Global central banks like the Fed and ECB appear less accommodative but the US economy remains resilient. Growth has slowed in Japan and parts of Europe.
- Automobiles, banks, FMCG and infrastructure sectors are expected to perform well in India, while cement may see a recovery. Select domestic sectors and stocks still appear attractive relative to other emerging markets.
- Markets have shown a flattish trend for the past few weeks due to mixed global news and lack of interesting domestic news. Quarterly earnings will be a key focus.
- The US Fed minutes showed many members supported a rate hike while others wanted rates kept steady. Globally, some nations want softer rates while developed nations prefer harder rates.
- In India, quarterly earnings just began and will be important, with IT companies continuing to disappoint so far. Regional cement players may report better numbers than large caps with nationwide reach. Private banks are expected to report strong results.
The document provides an analysis of recent events affecting global markets. It discusses two major events: 1) US presidential elections resulting in a victory for Donald Trump and 2) India's demonetization of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 currency notes. It summarizes the short-term negative impacts these events will have on certain sectors in India as well as longer-term positive impacts expected, especially in banking, infrastructure, and rate-sensitive sectors. Market indices are expected to remain cautious in the near-term but the analysis maintains a long-term bullish outlook for Indian markets.
The document provides an equity market outlook and analysis for the period of Diwali to Diwali (October 2016 to October 2017). It notes that large caps underperformed with returns of 5-6% last year while midcaps saw stronger returns of 19-20%. For the current year, it expects lower double digit returns for large caps and 15-20% returns for mid and small caps. It recommends focusing on sectors with good private demand like financials, automobiles, and consumer durables. Large caps are seen as providing stability but lower returns compared to midcaps where returns of 15% are expected over the next year for those with a higher risk appetite and 2-3 year investment horizon.
- The document provides an economic and market summary for the week of November 14-18, 2016. It discusses developments in global markets, the Indian economy and stock market, and provides commentary on sectors and asset classes.
- Key points include the expectation of US Federal rate hikes in December, the impact of India's demonetization on various industries, and an outlook that Indian stock markets will see further declines in the short-term but provide buying opportunities. Debt markets are also seen as favorable due to expected interest rate cuts.
The document summarizes recent news and developments in global markets and the Indian economy from October 31 - November 4, 2016. It discusses the impact of the FBI announcement regarding Hillary Clinton's emails on US and global markets. It also covers the upcoming US presidential election and its potential effects. Domestically, it discusses recent inflation data, bank earnings, and the progress of GST implementation in India. Globally, it mentions recent economic data and central bank decisions in the US, UK, Eurozone, and China.
The document provides a weekly market outlook report covering:
1) The Nifty index remained volatile and closed flat as traders awaited third quarter earnings and the upcoming union budget. It closed above 12,350 and formed a small bullish candle on the daily chart.
2) For the week, the Nifty traded in a range of over 100 points and formed a bullish candle on the weekly scale. Experts say the sideways trade will continue next week as traders watch the 12,300 level.
3) Among sectors, banking stocks rose led by State Bank of India and ICICI Bank, while the Nifty Pharma index gained over 3%. FII buying was seen for the week.
The document discusses the outlook for the global economy and financial markets in 2016. It makes the following key points:
1) The global economy is transitioning from a period dominated by US growth to a more balanced growth environment across developed and emerging economies. This "Great Rebalancing" began in 2015 and is expected to continue in 2016, leading to more convergence in economic outcomes.
2) Growth is expected to be similar across major developed economies in 2016, including the US, Europe, Japan, and UK, marking a change from recent years where the US significantly outpaced other regions.
3) European and Japanese equities are expected to outperform US equities in 2016, driven by expectations for stronger earnings growth
The document provides an overview and outlook across various asset classes and sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- Domestic equity markets have seen modest gains of around 8.5% year-to-date despite recent volatility due to political tensions. Bond yields have fallen in India on expectations of further rate cuts.
- Global central banks like the Fed and ECB appear less accommodative but the US economy remains resilient. Growth has slowed in Japan and parts of Europe.
- Automobiles, banks, FMCG and infrastructure sectors are expected to perform well in India, while cement may see a recovery. Select domestic sectors and stocks still appear attractive relative to other emerging markets.
- Markets have shown a flattish trend for the past few weeks due to mixed global news and lack of interesting domestic news. Quarterly earnings will be a key focus.
- The US Fed minutes showed many members supported a rate hike while others wanted rates kept steady. Globally, some nations want softer rates while developed nations prefer harder rates.
- In India, quarterly earnings just began and will be important, with IT companies continuing to disappoint so far. Regional cement players may report better numbers than large caps with nationwide reach. Private banks are expected to report strong results.
The document provides an analysis of recent events affecting global markets. It discusses two major events: 1) US presidential elections resulting in a victory for Donald Trump and 2) India's demonetization of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 currency notes. It summarizes the short-term negative impacts these events will have on certain sectors in India as well as longer-term positive impacts expected, especially in banking, infrastructure, and rate-sensitive sectors. Market indices are expected to remain cautious in the near-term but the analysis maintains a long-term bullish outlook for Indian markets.
The document provides an equity market and economic overview for the week of April 18-22, 2016. Some key points:
- Q4 company results were broadly in line with expectations, and results this season may be similar or slightly higher.
- Banks that received regulatory relief from the RBI on recognizing bad assets saw sharp rallies, but their fundamentals have not changed. Investors should not buy into these banks based on the RBI's leeway.
- Globally, disappointing results from Microsoft and tepid growth from Google do not bode well for markets and may lead to selling pressure. The current market can be viewed as a "buy on decline" scenario.
- Last week, global equity markets declined sharply due to one bad trading day that rattled investors who had become complacent about continuously rising prices. However, market corrections of 6-8% are normal and investors should focus on investing in good quality stocks during declines rather than withdrawing.
- Concerns remain about instability in Europe's banking system, uncertainty around US interest rates after the election, and potential for Chinese currency devaluation. Wholesale inflation slowed in India while the government may increase public spending to spur growth.
- Key stock indices declined over the past week with the Sensex falling 1.46% while most sectors also ended lower with metals and power dropping the most.
The document provides a weekly summary of global and domestic economic news and market performance for the week of April 25-29, 2016. Key points include:
- Indian equity markets were mixed as key sectors like automobiles and banks showed selective gains, while the overall markets exhibited signs of exhaustion after strong gains.
- Global markets remained stable as the US Fed did not change interest rates and the Bank of Japan maintained monetary stimulus.
- Domestic manufacturing activity declined to a 4-month low, putting pressure on the RBI to keep rates low. Eurozone factory output grew weakly.
- Chinese economic growth slowed slightly in April as manufacturing expansion was lower than expected, raising doubts about sustained recovery.
The document provides a weekly market outlook report for the Nifty, Bank Nifty, and various sectors for the week of January 17, 2020. It notes that the Nifty closed flat after remaining volatile, above a key support level of 12,350. It remained range-bound for the week. Banking stocks rose while Yes Bank shares declined. The report also provides analysis on crude oil, gold prices, and the FTSE 100 and Dow Jones indexes. Sectors like pharma and FMCG saw gains for the week while banks declined slightly.
This document provides an overview and outlook across various sectors in the Indian economy and globally. It begins with a note from the CEO discussing current economic conditions and opportunities from innovation and disruption. Several sections then analyze domestic and global equity markets, debt markets, key economic indicators, and provide outlooks for various sectors in India and globally. The document aims to inform investors on current economic and market conditions.
This document provides an overview and outlook across various sectors in India and globally. It discusses domestic and global economic factors, equity and debt market performance, sector-specific views, and other relevant topics. Key points include a positive outlook for domestic consumption sectors due to the festive season, signs of recovery in the Indian manufacturing sector, and expectations that global central banks will continue accommodative monetary policies.
The document provides an overview of the global and Indian economic and market conditions for the week of April 11-15, 2016. Some of the key points covered include:
- The Indian equity markets continued their positive momentum in the previous week and month of April, outperforming most global markets.
- India's industrial growth turned positive in February and retail inflation declined, providing room for further interest rate cuts.
- Large IT and private banks reported positive quarterly earnings, and the overall Q4 earnings season is expected to be good.
- The IMF projected India's growth at 7.5% for this year and next, and a forecast of normal monsoon rains is positive for the economy.
JUNE MARKET: INVESTORS UPBEAT, BUT CAUTIOUS AMIDST BUDGET SIGNING, ECONOMIC D...Akan Udofia
MARKET ROUNDUP FOR MAY 2017
The month of May 2017 again defiled the popular saying that “sell in May and return in October,” which has in the past held true repeatedly as the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) closed the month higher. This time around, the nation’s equity market galloped in May which ended on Wednesday with the Nigeris Stock Exchange among the globe and Africa’s best performing markets.
The document provides an outlook on global debt markets in November 2016. It notes that global bond yields are rising rapidly as central banks move away from easy monetary policies. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a 5-month high near 1.87% on expectations of a December rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. German and UK bond yields also increased. Global bond markets experienced a significant selloff due to expectations of higher US rates and uncertainty around the ECB's bond purchase program.
This document provides a weekly summary of economic, market, and other news from August 16-19, 2016. Some key points:
- India's CPI inflation rose above 6% in July, exceeding the central bank's tolerance limit and raising expectations of further rate hikes.
- Global government bond yields increased modestly, with the US 10-year yield rising to 1.6%, while oil prices fell on doubts that upcoming producer talks would reduce oversupply.
- Domestically, strong monsoon rains are expected to boost agricultural growth and the overall economy. Internationally, China's exports declined in 2016 and are projected to fall further due to economic pressures.
The Reserve Bank of India cut its repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.5% while keeping the CRR unchanged at 4%. Inflation is expected to be around 4.5% by March 2018. The results season has begun and expectations are modest. Revivals are possible in the auto and financial sectors along with rural and agriculture sectors based on pay commission awards and monsoon. Commodity prices declined over the week except for crude oil and the US dollar. Bond yields fell across maturities except the 10-year bond.
The document provides an overview and outlook on domestic and global financial markets. It discusses the CEO's positive outlook on the Indian equity market rally and fiscal reforms. On the domestic front, it summarizes inflation trends, industrial growth, bond yields, and provides recommendations on debt strategies. Globally, it reviews equity market performance and updates on major economies. The overall document aims to advise investors by analyzing economic and market conditions.
Dear Investors,
The month of July has seen the heavens literally open their doors and shower their blessings on us. After a late start in June, the monsoon picked up
smartly and the country as a whole received abundant rainfall, bringing cheer to one and all and definitely a sense of relief. The same good cheer
seems to have percolated to the global equity markets as well. Having brushed off the Brexit issue, markets have continued their upward move
relentlessly through the month of July. The US benchmark index, the S&P 500 hit a new lifetime high earlier in the month on the back of good jobs
data and an optimistic view of growth in the US economy. Not wanting to be left out in any way, the Nifty set a new 52-week high and the Sensex
scaled 28,000.
The quarterly results have been a mixed bag so far. While there have been more hits than misses, the IT sector as a whole and some pharma
companies have been the major pockets of underperformance. Most of the private sector retail banks and NBFCs have shown a stellar performance,
while growth in public sector banks was stagnant due to liquidity and NPA issues. In the consumer space, lower costs have added to the profits of
several companies, but revenue growth and volume growth were disappointing. There is hope that these will see a significant pick up in the second
half of the financial year once the benefits of the 7th Pay Commission and a good monsoon kick in.
The document provides an overview of global and domestic markets and economic indicators for the week of September 5-9, 2016. Key points include:
- There was a global market correction on Friday due to falling bond prices, though this does not necessarily mean the dislocation in markets has been corrected.
- Indian consumer inflation is expected to have eased in August but may still be too high for an interest rate cut in September. Tax receipts rose robustly in August.
- Economic data from major economies like Germany, the US, and China suggests slowing growth, while long-term debt issuance in Europe may increase risks.
- Indian indices fell for the week while commodities like crude oil rose and the rupee
El Servicio Nacional del Consumidor (SERNAC) es la agencia estatal chilena encargada de proteger los derechos de los consumidores establecidos en la Ley 19.496. El documento enumera nueve derechos básicos de los consumidores, como elegir libremente los bienes y servicios, acceder a información veraz, no ser discriminado, y tener derecho a la seguridad, reparaciones, educación para un consumo responsable, y garantías.
Perjuangan bangsa indonesia melawan penjajahRohman Efendi
Dokumen tersebut merangkum perjuangan para pejuang kemerdekaan Indonesia melawan penjajahan Belanda dan Jepang, mulai dari Sultan Agung dari Mataram, Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa dari Banten, hingga Sisingamangaraja XII dari Tapanuli Sumatra Utara. Mereka semua berjuang melawan penjajah dengan berbagai cara untuk membebaskan tanah air dari belenggu kolonialisme.
RESUMEN:
El presente artículo describe una aplicación para dispositivos móviles desarrollada en el marco de un proyecto de investigación cuyo objetivo
es fomentar las visitas al patrimonio, tanto cultural como académico y científico, de la Universidad de Granada (España). Dicha aplicación
se ha planteado como un juego serio que hace uso de mecanismos de geolocalización para ofrecer una experiencia gamificada que guiará la visita
del usuario a través de varios centros del complejo universitario. El juego se desarrolla como una aventura gráca en la que el jugador/usuario es
protagonista, y plantea una gran diversidad de desafíos que combinan aspectos físicos e intelectuales para incentivar al jugador a recopilar las
"piezas" distribuidas por los distintos edificios con el n último de dar vida (o no) a un nuevo Frankenstein. Actualmente se dispone de un prototipo
de la aplicación/juego que será probado próximamente en una experiencia organizada con varios grupos que competirán para crear el
Frankenstein en menos tiempo. Esta experiencia permitirá analizar la efectividad del juego en el objetivo con el que fue diseñado: motivar a
locales y turistas a visitar el patrimonio de la Universidad de Granada y adquirir conocimientos sobre el mismo.
El Papa Francisco se reunió con maestros católicos italianos y les dio consejos sobre la enseñanza. Les pidió que actualizaran sus habilidades pedagógicas y se comprometieran personalmente con sus estudiantes. También les instó a amar y apoyar a los estudiantes más difíciles y desfavorecidos, y a darle sentido a la educación más allá de la transmisión de conocimientos técnicos. El Papa destacó la importancia de que los maestros sirvan como modelos positivos y guías para los estud
Este documento trata sobre estadística, que es el estudio de datos cuantitativos de poblaciones y recursos para obtener inferencias basadas en probabilidades. Explica conceptos como organización y tabulación de datos, distribución de frecuencias, medidas descriptivas como media y desviación estándar, y representaciones gráficas de datos.
The document provides an equity market and economic overview for the week of April 18-22, 2016. Some key points:
- Q4 company results were broadly in line with expectations, and results this season may be similar or slightly higher.
- Banks that received regulatory relief from the RBI on recognizing bad assets saw sharp rallies, but their fundamentals have not changed. Investors should not buy into these banks based on the RBI's leeway.
- Globally, disappointing results from Microsoft and tepid growth from Google do not bode well for markets and may lead to selling pressure. The current market can be viewed as a "buy on decline" scenario.
- Last week, global equity markets declined sharply due to one bad trading day that rattled investors who had become complacent about continuously rising prices. However, market corrections of 6-8% are normal and investors should focus on investing in good quality stocks during declines rather than withdrawing.
- Concerns remain about instability in Europe's banking system, uncertainty around US interest rates after the election, and potential for Chinese currency devaluation. Wholesale inflation slowed in India while the government may increase public spending to spur growth.
- Key stock indices declined over the past week with the Sensex falling 1.46% while most sectors also ended lower with metals and power dropping the most.
The document provides a weekly summary of global and domestic economic news and market performance for the week of April 25-29, 2016. Key points include:
- Indian equity markets were mixed as key sectors like automobiles and banks showed selective gains, while the overall markets exhibited signs of exhaustion after strong gains.
- Global markets remained stable as the US Fed did not change interest rates and the Bank of Japan maintained monetary stimulus.
- Domestic manufacturing activity declined to a 4-month low, putting pressure on the RBI to keep rates low. Eurozone factory output grew weakly.
- Chinese economic growth slowed slightly in April as manufacturing expansion was lower than expected, raising doubts about sustained recovery.
The document provides a weekly market outlook report for the Nifty, Bank Nifty, and various sectors for the week of January 17, 2020. It notes that the Nifty closed flat after remaining volatile, above a key support level of 12,350. It remained range-bound for the week. Banking stocks rose while Yes Bank shares declined. The report also provides analysis on crude oil, gold prices, and the FTSE 100 and Dow Jones indexes. Sectors like pharma and FMCG saw gains for the week while banks declined slightly.
This document provides an overview and outlook across various sectors in the Indian economy and globally. It begins with a note from the CEO discussing current economic conditions and opportunities from innovation and disruption. Several sections then analyze domestic and global equity markets, debt markets, key economic indicators, and provide outlooks for various sectors in India and globally. The document aims to inform investors on current economic and market conditions.
This document provides an overview and outlook across various sectors in India and globally. It discusses domestic and global economic factors, equity and debt market performance, sector-specific views, and other relevant topics. Key points include a positive outlook for domestic consumption sectors due to the festive season, signs of recovery in the Indian manufacturing sector, and expectations that global central banks will continue accommodative monetary policies.
The document provides an overview of the global and Indian economic and market conditions for the week of April 11-15, 2016. Some of the key points covered include:
- The Indian equity markets continued their positive momentum in the previous week and month of April, outperforming most global markets.
- India's industrial growth turned positive in February and retail inflation declined, providing room for further interest rate cuts.
- Large IT and private banks reported positive quarterly earnings, and the overall Q4 earnings season is expected to be good.
- The IMF projected India's growth at 7.5% for this year and next, and a forecast of normal monsoon rains is positive for the economy.
JUNE MARKET: INVESTORS UPBEAT, BUT CAUTIOUS AMIDST BUDGET SIGNING, ECONOMIC D...Akan Udofia
MARKET ROUNDUP FOR MAY 2017
The month of May 2017 again defiled the popular saying that “sell in May and return in October,” which has in the past held true repeatedly as the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) closed the month higher. This time around, the nation’s equity market galloped in May which ended on Wednesday with the Nigeris Stock Exchange among the globe and Africa’s best performing markets.
The document provides an outlook on global debt markets in November 2016. It notes that global bond yields are rising rapidly as central banks move away from easy monetary policies. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a 5-month high near 1.87% on expectations of a December rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. German and UK bond yields also increased. Global bond markets experienced a significant selloff due to expectations of higher US rates and uncertainty around the ECB's bond purchase program.
This document provides a weekly summary of economic, market, and other news from August 16-19, 2016. Some key points:
- India's CPI inflation rose above 6% in July, exceeding the central bank's tolerance limit and raising expectations of further rate hikes.
- Global government bond yields increased modestly, with the US 10-year yield rising to 1.6%, while oil prices fell on doubts that upcoming producer talks would reduce oversupply.
- Domestically, strong monsoon rains are expected to boost agricultural growth and the overall economy. Internationally, China's exports declined in 2016 and are projected to fall further due to economic pressures.
The Reserve Bank of India cut its repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.5% while keeping the CRR unchanged at 4%. Inflation is expected to be around 4.5% by March 2018. The results season has begun and expectations are modest. Revivals are possible in the auto and financial sectors along with rural and agriculture sectors based on pay commission awards and monsoon. Commodity prices declined over the week except for crude oil and the US dollar. Bond yields fell across maturities except the 10-year bond.
The document provides an overview and outlook on domestic and global financial markets. It discusses the CEO's positive outlook on the Indian equity market rally and fiscal reforms. On the domestic front, it summarizes inflation trends, industrial growth, bond yields, and provides recommendations on debt strategies. Globally, it reviews equity market performance and updates on major economies. The overall document aims to advise investors by analyzing economic and market conditions.
Dear Investors,
The month of July has seen the heavens literally open their doors and shower their blessings on us. After a late start in June, the monsoon picked up
smartly and the country as a whole received abundant rainfall, bringing cheer to one and all and definitely a sense of relief. The same good cheer
seems to have percolated to the global equity markets as well. Having brushed off the Brexit issue, markets have continued their upward move
relentlessly through the month of July. The US benchmark index, the S&P 500 hit a new lifetime high earlier in the month on the back of good jobs
data and an optimistic view of growth in the US economy. Not wanting to be left out in any way, the Nifty set a new 52-week high and the Sensex
scaled 28,000.
The quarterly results have been a mixed bag so far. While there have been more hits than misses, the IT sector as a whole and some pharma
companies have been the major pockets of underperformance. Most of the private sector retail banks and NBFCs have shown a stellar performance,
while growth in public sector banks was stagnant due to liquidity and NPA issues. In the consumer space, lower costs have added to the profits of
several companies, but revenue growth and volume growth were disappointing. There is hope that these will see a significant pick up in the second
half of the financial year once the benefits of the 7th Pay Commission and a good monsoon kick in.
The document provides an overview of global and domestic markets and economic indicators for the week of September 5-9, 2016. Key points include:
- There was a global market correction on Friday due to falling bond prices, though this does not necessarily mean the dislocation in markets has been corrected.
- Indian consumer inflation is expected to have eased in August but may still be too high for an interest rate cut in September. Tax receipts rose robustly in August.
- Economic data from major economies like Germany, the US, and China suggests slowing growth, while long-term debt issuance in Europe may increase risks.
- Indian indices fell for the week while commodities like crude oil rose and the rupee
El Servicio Nacional del Consumidor (SERNAC) es la agencia estatal chilena encargada de proteger los derechos de los consumidores establecidos en la Ley 19.496. El documento enumera nueve derechos básicos de los consumidores, como elegir libremente los bienes y servicios, acceder a información veraz, no ser discriminado, y tener derecho a la seguridad, reparaciones, educación para un consumo responsable, y garantías.
Perjuangan bangsa indonesia melawan penjajahRohman Efendi
Dokumen tersebut merangkum perjuangan para pejuang kemerdekaan Indonesia melawan penjajahan Belanda dan Jepang, mulai dari Sultan Agung dari Mataram, Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa dari Banten, hingga Sisingamangaraja XII dari Tapanuli Sumatra Utara. Mereka semua berjuang melawan penjajah dengan berbagai cara untuk membebaskan tanah air dari belenggu kolonialisme.
RESUMEN:
El presente artículo describe una aplicación para dispositivos móviles desarrollada en el marco de un proyecto de investigación cuyo objetivo
es fomentar las visitas al patrimonio, tanto cultural como académico y científico, de la Universidad de Granada (España). Dicha aplicación
se ha planteado como un juego serio que hace uso de mecanismos de geolocalización para ofrecer una experiencia gamificada que guiará la visita
del usuario a través de varios centros del complejo universitario. El juego se desarrolla como una aventura gráca en la que el jugador/usuario es
protagonista, y plantea una gran diversidad de desafíos que combinan aspectos físicos e intelectuales para incentivar al jugador a recopilar las
"piezas" distribuidas por los distintos edificios con el n último de dar vida (o no) a un nuevo Frankenstein. Actualmente se dispone de un prototipo
de la aplicación/juego que será probado próximamente en una experiencia organizada con varios grupos que competirán para crear el
Frankenstein en menos tiempo. Esta experiencia permitirá analizar la efectividad del juego en el objetivo con el que fue diseñado: motivar a
locales y turistas a visitar el patrimonio de la Universidad de Granada y adquirir conocimientos sobre el mismo.
El Papa Francisco se reunió con maestros católicos italianos y les dio consejos sobre la enseñanza. Les pidió que actualizaran sus habilidades pedagógicas y se comprometieran personalmente con sus estudiantes. También les instó a amar y apoyar a los estudiantes más difíciles y desfavorecidos, y a darle sentido a la educación más allá de la transmisión de conocimientos técnicos. El Papa destacó la importancia de que los maestros sirvan como modelos positivos y guías para los estud
Este documento trata sobre estadística, que es el estudio de datos cuantitativos de poblaciones y recursos para obtener inferencias basadas en probabilidades. Explica conceptos como organización y tabulación de datos, distribución de frecuencias, medidas descriptivas como media y desviación estándar, y representaciones gráficas de datos.
Sernac es el Servicio Nacional del Consumidor de Chile, cuya misión es educar, informar y proteger a los consumidores chilenos a través de la Ley de Protección de los Derechos del Consumidor. Sernac se encarga de mediar en conflictos entre proveedores y consumidores y está relacionado con el Ministerio de Economía. La ley establece derechos como la información veraz sobre productos, garantías y no discriminación, así como obligaciones para empresas.
El documento presenta gráficos estadísticos que muestran las variaciones en el empleo privado versus el empleo público en 127 centros urbanos de 2007 a 2012. Los gráficos destacan las diferencias estadísticamente significativas en el empleo entre 2011 y 2012. Sin embargo, las estadísticas de empleo total no incluyen a todos los trabajadores como empleados domésticos y ayudantes no remunerados.
Este documento presenta información sobre estándares nacionales de aprendizaje, mapas de progreso del aprendizaje y rutas de aprendizaje. Los estándares son metas claras de aprendizaje que todos los estudiantes deben alcanzar. Los mapas de progreso describen cómo progresan los aprendizajes esperados a lo largo de la escolaridad. Las rutas de aprendizaje son herramientas pedagógicas que apoyan al docente en el logro de los aprendizajes y estánndares.
『행복한 과학기술 공모전』에 입상한 영예의 수상자 여러분께 진심으로 축하의 말씀을 드립
니다. 이번 공모전은 세계적으로 확산되고 있는 오픈소스 플랫폼 기반의 IT기술 공모전으로
국내 창작문화 활성화에 기여하고, 사회적 책임감을 지닌 과학기술 우수 인재를 발굴·육성하
고자 마련되었습니다.
공모전에는 중·고·대학생 및 일반부 총 368개(팀)이 접수하였으며, 각각의 공모작은 참가
연령대 별로 창의적이고 새로운 아이디어뿐만 아니라 세상과 이웃을 행복하게 만드는 기술에
대한 진지한 고민과 열정이 담겨있어 심사위원진에게 큰 감동을 안겨주었습니다. 우열을 가리기
힘든 심사였지만 공정한 평가 과정을 통해 25개(팀) 작품과 지도교사 2인이 최종 수상자로 선
정되었습니다.
수상자 여러분!
이번 공모전에 참가한 여러분을 보며 대한민국의 희망을 발견했습니다.
지난 반세기 과학기술과 ICT가 국가발전의 원동력이 되었듯이 미래에도 지속가능한 성장을
이룩하려면 여러분과 같은 과학기술 인재가 발굴, 육성되어 국력을 키우고 과학기술을 기반으로
한 기술혁신이 이루어져야 합니다. 부디 이번 공모전 수상이 여러분의 꿈과 도전을 더 큰 세계
로 나아가게 하는 계기가 되길 응원합니다.
본 수상작 모음집에는 입상한 25개(팀)의 수상작품에 대한 해설 및 사진과 함께 개발자들의
소감을 담았습니다. 모쪼록 모음집에 담긴 우수성과 사례가 다양한 분야에 널리 확산되어 예비
청년과학도와 교육 및 창업을 고민하는 많은 분들에게 도움이 되길 바랍니다.
끝으로 공모전의 기획·후원을 해주신 SK hynix 관계자 여러분께 감사드리며, 물심양면으로
애써주신 심사위원 여러분과 지도 교사 분들께도 감사의 인사를 전합니다.
감사합니다.
2015년 6월
한국과학기술단체총연합회 회장
이 부 섭
출처 : https://kstam.kofst.or.kr/
El grupo de robótica se reunió para discutir ideas sobre el logo del equipo, un video promocional, y la parte superior del robot. Eligieron un logo propuesto por Susana Fernández. Discutieron hacer videos individuales presentándose en el colegio. También conversaron sobre cómo permitir que las pelotas se deslizaran fácilmente en la parte superior del robot y decidieron pedir consejo a un ingeniero.
This presentation will take you on a tour of universe where you will learn a lot about black holes, planets, Stephen Hawking, Roger Penrose and many more.
This is not just a presentation, it is like a book full of knowledge about Black holes.
And I want to introduce myself, my name is Harsh Singhal And my website name is www.sk4265singhal.wix.com/universe.
And this presentation is enriched with knowlege.
Este documento discute alternativas al uso de formaldehido en anatomía patológica. Señala que el formaldehido es el fijador estándar pero también cancerígeno, por lo que se ha adoptado un enfoque de fijación mixta utilizando en un 70% el fijador Glioxal y en un 20% formaldehido. La fijación mixta permite reducir el uso de formaldehido y proporciona buenos resultados en tinción e inmunohistoquímica aunque presenta algunos desafíos para la conservación a
For more information, please visit: http://bit.ly/2aoRNk3
Business leaders around the world began 2016 facing a gut-churning bout of market volatility. Many financial markets fell by at least 10% between January 1st and mid-February; 2016 had the worst 10-day start to a year since 1897. No doubt remembering how quickly the contagion of the Great Recession spread and the resulting economic devastation, in early 2016 executives started making fresh assessments of how broader economic factors should affect their operational decision-making.
The Big Issues report discusses trends, issues and ‘big picture’ influences that could act as threats or opportunities for consumers, investors and businesses alike.
2014 Business Forecast - what to watch out for in the year aheadJames Price
Leading Australian economists and commentators, Justin Fabo from ANZ and Rob Henderson from NAB, share their views on the economic outlook for 2014 and beyond. JPAbusiness managing director James Price then discusses the implications of these forecasts for small- to medium-sized enterprises.
The report provides an overview of macroeconomic trends and outlooks for various regions and sectors. For the domestic economy, while facing some headwinds, growth is expected to continue in 2016 driven by strong consumer spending. In Europe, recovery is expected to continue but at a slow pace due to global uncertainties. China is undergoing an economic transition and growth is projected to slow, posing risks globally. Emerging markets face challenges from China's slowdown and commodity price declines but conditions are projected to improve in 2016.
Through all the market traumas of recent years, the crises in Greece, slowdown scares in China, US political gridlock, the collapse in oil prices, the wars and the migrant flows, investors prepared to weather short-term volatility have seen handsome returns on developed-economy equities since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008, with EUR and USD investors seeing only one modestly down year in 2011. There has also been good performance from high yield and investment grade corporate bonds, the laggards (since 2011) being investments connected to commodities and emerging markets.
Our analysis, set out in this Outlook, suggests that 2016 may deliver a fairly similar pattern. Temporary traumas could emanate from Federal Reserve tightening, reduced bond liquidity, renewed growth scares in China or geopolitics, but behind these is an underlying picture of ongoing expansion. The global economy is neither pushed up against capacity limits nor facing severe slack (except for commodities and energy), banking systems are healthy and debt levels seem more amber than red. Rapid growth seems unlikely, given aging populations (bar Africa and India) and sharing economy technologies that do not generate much Gross Domestic Product, but sensibly-priced assets do not need a booming economy to generate reasonable returns. At the time of writing (in late 2015), high yield and investment grade credits have spreads just above their quarter-century averages, giving them scope to weather gradual Fed tightening. Developed equities have valuations somewhat above historic norms on a price-earnings basis, but not on a price-book basis, and operational leverage (especially in the Eurozone) and consolidating oil prices should allow earnings growth to move from last year's negatives into the mid- to high-single digits. In short, we think developed equities and credits are well placed for another year of reasonable returns, with the dollar likely to be strong again as the Fed leads the monetary cycle. As for emerging markets, and the commodities on which many depend, a convincing general recovery looks some time away, but there is scope for some to move ahead of the pack, as discussed in a special article.
Of course there can always be risks that are not visible and Fed tightening has a habit of teasing these out, although usually not within its first year. But, equally, there could be upside surprises, if the USA finally moves toward solutions on taxing repatriated corporate cash and infrastructure spending or, more simply, the signals of rising confidence already visible in US and European consumer surveys translate into faster spending. We trust our readers will find the Investment Outlook 2016 to be of considerable interest for the coming year.
The document provides an overview of the economic outlook for Australia based on media coverage from December 2016 to February 2017. Key points include:
- The Australian economy contracted in the September quarter but is expected to avoid a technical recession. Growth is forecast to be around 2.8% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018.
- Housing affordability is at record lows in Sydney and Melbourne but an oversupply of apartments could lead to price drops later in 2017.
- Risks to the economic outlook include a slowdown in China, higher interest rates in the US, and potential job losses in the automotive and mining industries.
- The jobs market saw stronger part-time employment and lower full
The document provides outlooks from leaders of Franklin Templeton on the global macro environment, global equities, and multi-strategy solutions. It includes the following key points:
- Michael Hasenstab discusses expectations for continuing US economic growth and rising interest rates from the Fed, while the BOJ and ECB maintain quantitative easing. Emerging markets show differences that will be magnified by US rate hikes.
- Ed Perks oversees equity teams that share insights across markets to strengthen convictions.
- Rick Frisbie's group incorporates long-term capital market expectations into portfolio positioning for the next 5-10 years.
During this week's Invast Insights we cover:
► A look at the Australian Banks
► Will falling interest rates help?
► The big 4 banks analysed
GRAB A 4 WEEK INVAST INSIGHTS FREE TRIAL (WEEKLY NEWSLETTER)
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Nigeria 2016 Outlook - to be or not to beChuks Anyanwu
This document provides a review and outlook of the Nigerian economy in 2016. It summarizes the key global and domestic economic developments in 2015 that impacted Nigeria, including the decline in oil prices, currency volatility, and capital flight. The outlook anticipates both opportunities and challenges for Nigeria in 2016, focusing on the expansionary budget proposal and its potential effects, as well as ongoing issues like inflation, exchange rates, and economic diversification. The conclusion is that Nigeria faces a choice between economic improvement or continued struggles in the coming year.
Ideas:
-Get away from the U.S. bias - think tactical globally
-Keep an eye on USD / Oil / China / Earnings
-Europe is cheap and growth potential creates opportunities
-Japan: both hedged and unhedged opportunities to explore
-Global consumer markets: credit space and EM consumer markets
- The document discusses Morgan Stanley's outlook for the global economy and financial markets in 2016.
- It predicts that economic growth will converge across developed economies like the US, Eurozone, UK and Japan, with little difference expected in real GDP growth between these regions.
- Earnings growth is also expected to accelerate in Europe and Japan, outpacing recent trends in the US and emerging from an "extreme divergence."
- However, returns may remain volatile as economic outcomes converge due to diverging rates of change and differences in nominal GDP growth across regions. The strength of the US dollar also poses a key risk.
Is it time to buy the U.S. in early June?
An oil and materials price bottom is fully in. That is bullish risk. The S&P500 can finish 2016 above 2200, which is a +5%
return. Another big positive: A U.S. 5.0% unemployment rate adds consumer momentum via pending wage pressure. This
builds incomes.
U.S. shares have recovered. Watch for bullish S&P500 breaks of 2,100 in June or later.
Before the Aug. 2015 sell-off, the S&P500 traded at 16.6x forward earnings vs. a 10-year average of 14.1x. The Feb index
traded at 15.2. The June 2016 index trades at 16.7x forward earnings. Bearishly, we trade a bit above valuation levels of
August 2015.
Zacks strategists still call an S&P500 at 2,200 to 2,300 by yearend, given a 15% chance of U.S. recession (including me).
Informe - La economía global entra en aguas turbulentasIgnacio Jimenez
The global economy has seen sluggish growth in 2015 as emerging markets struggle. Global growth is projected to be just 2.5% in 2015 and modestly increase to 2.9% in 2016, below historical averages. Advanced economies are doing relatively well, while emerging markets face headwinds from falling commodity prices, China's economic slowdown, and anticipated higher US interest rates. Global trade growth has also been disappointing and is expected to be around 1% in 2015 before a slight pickup in 2016. China now accounts for 18% of global GDP, making its economic performance a dominant factor for global growth.
This document provides an analysis of macroeconomic conditions and portfolio recommendations. It analyzes the national economies of the US, Asia, and Europe, finding overall recovery but some weaknesses. International factors like declining commodity prices and tight financial conditions are noted. The document then assesses industries, provides interest and exchange rate forecasts, evaluates specific securities, and recommends a diversified portfolio allocation and hedging strategies to achieve the target 5.78% return over 5 years for retirement investors.
The outcome of the US presidential election raises challenges for Asia. However, Chinese growth remains high and a financial crisis is unlikely, while growth in Hong Kong is improving. The brighter outlook in these markets should boost office property, as firm investment demand suggests, although residential property faces risks. Singapore's long-run attractions outweigh near-term pressure in the office market. Australia's economy is buoyant, but the positive story is well-known. Global investors and occupiers should stay focused on China and look again at Singapore.
The third quarter of 2016 saw positive gains in the stock market despite economic and political turmoil. The S&P 500 gained 3.31% for the quarter, while the Dow Jones and NASDAQ also saw gains. Investors remained concerned over interest rates and the upcoming presidential election. Looking ahead, key areas for investors to watch include interest rates, oil prices, the election, and overall market volatility in the fourth quarter.
- The Total Asset Partners portfolio returned 1.54% for Q3 and 6.27% year-to-date, outperforming fixed income but lagging the S&P 500 while maintaining lower volatility.
- The portfolio remains defensively positioned with 35% in equities, 45% in fixed income, and 19.4% in cash as valuations across asset classes appear expensive and economic growth remains weak.
- Key concerns include declining corporate profits, high debt levels, the risk of higher interest rates, deteriorating high yield credit fundamentals, and expensive equity valuations leaving little room for further expansion.
[Nielsen] Quarter by numbers ASIA PACIFIC Q2/2017Duy, Vo Hoang
The document provides an overview of the FMCG market in Australia in Q2 2017. Key points include:
- Consumer confidence in Australia was 89, slightly down from the previous year, and Australians remain pessimistic about job prospects and economic conditions.
- Growth in the FMCG sector was flat in Q2 2017, though annual growth was steady at 2.8%. Value growth has slowed from previous quarters.
- Online retail continues to grow, making up 13.4% of the market, while bricks and mortar remains the largest channel.
- Some categories such as fresh produce and health and beauty saw stronger growth, while others like frozen foods and household declined. Smaller manufacturers outperformed larger players.
Dear Investors,
Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross said "Ultimately, I think it will be the world's most expensive divorce. But like most divorces, it's probably going to take a lot longer than it should." The Brexit vote to leave the European Union sent shock waves across the globe. Though the pre-poll surveys had indicated a close call, it was largely expected that sanity would prevail on referendum day and the British populace would vote to Remain. The ramifications of an eventual Brexit are likely to be long-drawn and far-reaching. Apart from the impact it has had on the currency markets, there is an imminent danger of other countries wanting to follow suit. This may lead to the ultimate breakdown of the EU, causing geo-political chaos with the danger of recession.
The equity markets seemed to have temporarily shrugged off the event. While the Sensex tanked by over 1000 points when the Brexit result was declared, it has since recovered all its losses and closed the month of June at a YTD high of almost 27,000. Though there may be individual stocks and sectors where revenues are likely to be directly impacted, the market as a whole has shown significant resilience, waiting as it were for Britain to formally initiate the process of exit before assessing its overall impact.
Central banks around the world are still trying to restore economic conditions to pre-crisis levels and major policy differences remain, which will affect markets in 2016. The document predicts modest global stock market gains, a strong U.S. dollar, and low bond yields in 2016 alongside periods of market volatility. U.S. stock gains are expected to continue but the bull market is mature with weaker earnings growth and stretched valuations, leading to mixed performance and corrections. International stocks may benefit from improving global growth but gains will be limited in emerging markets due to concerns over monetary policy divergence and a rising dollar.
Similar to 2016 Business Forecast - Terms of trade squeeze to keep growth modest (20)
How to manage a business ownership transferJames Price
JPAbusiness managing director James Price details some important issues a vendor, and by definition a purchaser, need to deal with in the transfer process leading up to a business sale settlement.
This document provides a due diligence checklist for clients considering purchasing a business. It includes questions to consider regarding customers and markets, inventory and suppliers, people and processes, contracts and agreements, and financial performance of the business. It also includes a simplified legal due diligence checklist of key information to obtain from vendors, such as corporate structure, licenses, contracts, assets, employees and any litigation. The purpose is to help buyers thoroughly evaluate all important aspects of a target business before acquiring it.
How to choose the right structure for your businessJames Price
JPAbusiness guest contributor and management accountant Richard Cummins from Cummins Business Consulting examines the tax and asset protection implications of different business structures.
JPAbusiness managing director James Price presents a business transaction case study, focusing on the recent purchase of Denny's Silo and Engineering by Satake Australia. The buyer (Satake Australia), the seller (Bob Denny) and the advisor (JPAbusiness) all share their experience of the business sale process.
JPAbusiness Working Capital Checklist templateJames Price
This document provides a checklist for business owners and managers to help them effectively manage working capital and improve cash flow. It outlines 10 key working capital levers, including current assets like cash, accounts receivable and inventory, and current liabilities like accounts payable, debt, and taxes. For each lever, it provides definitions and recommendations for monitoring and controlling the lever to meet commitments and maximize cash position. The overall goal is to give businesses tools to strengthen their working capital management and avoid cash flow problems.
The JPAbusiness Business Owner’s Checklist is a useful first step for anyone considering moving from the employed workforce to self-employment. It consists of a list of 10 common attributes the JPAbusiness team tends to find in people who successfully build and run businesses.
JPAbusiness Annual Business Plan TemplateJames Price
This document provides templates for a business to conduct an annual planning process, including a business health check, assessment of business value and return, SWOT analysis, and review of customer portfolio. It encourages the business to rate various factors on their business health, calculate their implied business value, identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats and top customers to develop an actionable 3-year business plan.
JPAbusiness Staff Training Plan templateJames Price
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This professional development plan outlines an individual's career objectives, strengths, weaknesses, issues, and gaps. It identifies actions needed to achieve objectives and timelines for completing those actions. The plan is signed by the individual, their direct manager, and manager one level up once objectives and actions are agreed upon.
Self-Managed Superannuation Funds for Small to Mid-Sized BusinessJames Price
The document discusses self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs) for small to mid-sized businesses. It provides an overview of how SMSFs can be used to build wealth through investments like property. It highlights a success story of business owners using an SMSF to invest in commercial properties. However, it warns that borrowing within an SMSF carries risks that require professional advice to navigate properly. The document aims to explain the benefits, risks and mechanics of SMSFs and borrowing within them.
Industrial Relations Advice for Small to Mid-Sized BusinessesJames Price
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Buying a Small to Medium-Sized BusinessJames Price
A good business purchase is about planning and ensuring you have plenty of information to base decisions on, rather than rushing in and letting emotions take over.
In this eBook James shares the JPAbusiness Buyer's Checklist, the 3 core focus areas of the Due Diligence process, a Due Diligence Checklist, and advice on Managing the Risks of a Business Purchase.
Private equity investor Gareth Banks from Champ Ventures, solicitor Anthony Short from Blackwell Short Lawyers and JPAbusiness director James Price share their expertise on the topic: Partners in Your Business.
This document discusses strategies for managing staff to achieve high performance. It begins by reviewing recent research on team performance, noting that people cannot be controlled like machines and that using inclusive language focusing on "we" rather than "I" tends to lead to better business results.
The document then outlines practical steps for reviewing and improving performance, structured around viewing performance from different perspectives - looking forward with a dynamic checklist, reviewing past performance, and providing feedback, recognition and rewards.
The dynamic checklist proposed has 6 elements: objectives and outcomes, strengths and weaknesses, risks, expectations, questioning, and monitoring feedback. Subsequent chapters will discuss performance reviews, feedback and turning around poor performance. The overall aim is to help managers develop high
Understanding User Needs and Satisfying ThemAggregage
https://www.productmanagementtoday.com/frs/26903918/understanding-user-needs-and-satisfying-them
We know we want to create products which our customers find to be valuable. Whether we label it as customer-centric or product-led depends on how long we've been doing product management. There are three challenges we face when doing this. The obvious challenge is figuring out what our users need; the non-obvious challenges are in creating a shared understanding of those needs and in sensing if what we're doing is meeting those needs.
In this webinar, we won't focus on the research methods for discovering user-needs. We will focus on synthesis of the needs we discover, communication and alignment tools, and how we operationalize addressing those needs.
Industry expert Scott Sehlhorst will:
• Introduce a taxonomy for user goals with real world examples
• Present the Onion Diagram, a tool for contextualizing task-level goals
• Illustrate how customer journey maps capture activity-level and task-level goals
• Demonstrate the best approach to selection and prioritization of user-goals to address
• Highlight the crucial benchmarks, observable changes, in ensuring fulfillment of customer needs
Storytelling is an incredibly valuable tool to share data and information. To get the most impact from stories there are a number of key ingredients. These are based on science and human nature. Using these elements in a story you can deliver information impactfully, ensure action and drive change.
HOW TO START UP A COMPANY A STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE.pdf46adnanshahzad
How to Start Up a Company: A Step-by-Step Guide Starting a company is an exciting adventure that combines creativity, strategy, and hard work. It can seem overwhelming at first, but with the right guidance, anyone can transform a great idea into a successful business. Let's dive into how to start up a company, from the initial spark of an idea to securing funding and launching your startup.
Introduction
Have you ever dreamed of turning your innovative idea into a thriving business? Starting a company involves numerous steps and decisions, but don't worry—we're here to help. Whether you're exploring how to start a startup company or wondering how to start up a small business, this guide will walk you through the process, step by step.
Unveiling the Dynamic Personalities, Key Dates, and Horoscope Insights: Gemin...my Pandit
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The APCO Geopolitical Radar - Q3 2024 The Global Operating Environment for Bu...APCO
The Radar reflects input from APCO’s teams located around the world. It distils a host of interconnected events and trends into insights to inform operational and strategic decisions. Issues covered in this edition include:
At Techbox Square, in Singapore, we're not just creative web designers and developers, we're the driving force behind your brand identity. Contact us today.
How to Implement a Real Estate CRM SoftwareSalesTown
To implement a CRM for real estate, set clear goals, choose a CRM with key real estate features, and customize it to your needs. Migrate your data, train your team, and use automation to save time. Monitor performance, ensure data security, and use the CRM to enhance marketing. Regularly check its effectiveness to improve your business.
Easily Verify Compliance and Security with Binance KYCAny kyc Account
Use our simple KYC verification guide to make sure your Binance account is safe and compliant. Discover the fundamentals, appreciate the significance of KYC, and trade on one of the biggest cryptocurrency exchanges with confidence.
Navigating the world of forex trading can be challenging, especially for beginners. To help you make an informed decision, we have comprehensively compared the best forex brokers in India for 2024. This article, reviewed by Top Forex Brokers Review, will cover featured award winners, the best forex brokers, featured offers, the best copy trading platforms, the best forex brokers for beginners, the best MetaTrader brokers, and recently updated reviews. We will focus on FP Markets, Black Bull, EightCap, IC Markets, and Octa.
Digital Marketing with a Focus on Sustainabilitysssourabhsharma
Digital Marketing best practices including influencer marketing, content creators, and omnichannel marketing for Sustainable Brands at the Sustainable Cosmetics Summit 2024 in New York
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Presented at The Global HR Summit, 6th June 2024
In this keynote, Luan Wise will provide invaluable insights to elevate your employer brand on social media platforms including LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok. You'll learn how compelling content can authentically showcase your company culture, values, and employee experiences to support your talent acquisition and retention objectives. Additionally, you'll understand the power of employee advocacy to amplify reach and engagement – helping to position your organization as an employer of choice in today's competitive talent landscape.
Top mailing list providers in the USA.pptxJeremyPeirce1
Discover the top mailing list providers in the USA, offering targeted lists, segmentation, and analytics to optimize your marketing campaigns and drive engagement.
[To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
This PowerPoint compilation offers a comprehensive overview of 20 leading innovation management frameworks and methodologies, selected for their broad applicability across various industries and organizational contexts. These frameworks are valuable resources for a wide range of users, including business professionals, educators, and consultants.
Each framework is presented with visually engaging diagrams and templates, ensuring the content is both informative and appealing. While this compilation is thorough, please note that the slides are intended as supplementary resources and may not be sufficient for standalone instructional purposes.
This compilation is ideal for anyone looking to enhance their understanding of innovation management and drive meaningful change within their organization. Whether you aim to improve product development processes, enhance customer experiences, or drive digital transformation, these frameworks offer valuable insights and tools to help you achieve your goals.
INCLUDED FRAMEWORKS/MODELS:
1. Stanford’s Design Thinking
2. IDEO’s Human-Centered Design
3. Strategyzer’s Business Model Innovation
4. Lean Startup Methodology
5. Agile Innovation Framework
6. Doblin’s Ten Types of Innovation
7. McKinsey’s Three Horizons of Growth
8. Customer Journey Map
9. Christensen’s Disruptive Innovation Theory
10. Blue Ocean Strategy
11. Strategyn’s Jobs-To-Be-Done (JTBD) Framework with Job Map
12. Design Sprint Framework
13. The Double Diamond
14. Lean Six Sigma DMAIC
15. TRIZ Problem-Solving Framework
16. Edward de Bono’s Six Thinking Hats
17. Stage-Gate Model
18. Toyota’s Six Steps of Kaizen
19. Microsoft’s Digital Transformation Framework
20. Design for Six Sigma (DFSS)
To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations
The Genesis of BriansClub.cm Famous Dark WEb PlatformSabaaSudozai
BriansClub.cm, a famous platform on the dark web, has become one of the most infamous carding marketplaces, specializing in the sale of stolen credit card data.
Anny Serafina Love - Letter of Recommendation by Kellen Harkins, MS.AnnySerafinaLove
This letter, written by Kellen Harkins, Course Director at Full Sail University, commends Anny Love's exemplary performance in the Video Sharing Platforms class. It highlights her dedication, willingness to challenge herself, and exceptional skills in production, editing, and marketing across various video platforms like YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram.
2. jpabusiness.com.au
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Table
of
Contents
Introduction
...........................................................................................................
3
Chapter
1:
Key
economic
indicators:
forecast
for
2016
...........................................
4
ANZ’s
key
forecasts
for
2016
........................................................................................................................
4
What
is
your
forecast
for
the
AUD
in
2016?
...........................................................................................
5
What
is
your
forecast
for
Interest
Rates
in
2016?
...............................................................................
6
What
is
your
forecast
for
Business
Investment
in
2016?
.................................................................
7
What
is
your
forecast
for
Business
Credit
in
2016?
............................................................................
8
What
is
your
forecast
for
Overall
Household
Consumption
in
2016?
........................................
9
What
is
your
forecast
for
Wages
in
2016?
............................................................................................
11
What
is
your
forecast
for
Employment
in
2016?
...............................................................................
11
What
is
your
forecast
for
Inflation
in
2016?
........................................................................................
12
Chapter
2:
Economic
outlook
and
its
impact
on
SMEs
in
2016
...............................
13
What
is
the
outlook
for
the
Australian
economy
in
2016
and
what
are
the
implications
for
Australian
business?
................................................................................................................................
13
What
are
the
downside
risks
for
the
economy
in
2016?
................................................................
17
What
are
the
upside
risks
for
the
economy
in
2016?
.......................................................................
18
Chapter
3:
International
economic
outlook
in
2016
...............................................
19
What
is
the
outlook
for
the
international
economy
in
2016?
.......................................................
19
What
is
the
outlook
for
the
Chinese
economy
in
2016?
..................................................................
22
What
is
the
outlook
for
the
United
States
economy
in
2016?
......................................................
26
What
is
the
outlook
for
the
European
economy
in
2016?
..............................................................
29
Disclaimer: The information contained in this eBook is general in nature and should not
be taken as personal, professional advice. Readers should make their own inquiries and
obtain independent advice before making any decisions or taking any action.
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Introduction
Welcome to the third annual JPAbusiness Business Forecast eBook. This
year we are delighted to have two ANZ economists contributing to our eBook:
Justin Fabo and Tom Kenny.
Justin and Tom are leading Australian economists and we are very fortunate
they have agreed to share their views on the Australian and international
economic outlook for 2016.
Below is a brief introduction to our guest contributors:
Justin Fabo is Senior Economist in ANZ’s
Australian Economics team. In addition to
researching developments in the labour market
and demographics, Justin focuses on
Australia’s trade and investment corridors. He
communicates the research team’s views to
investor, institutional, corporate and commercial
clients, and has co-authored ANZ reports on
ASEAN: The Next Horizon, Sleeping Giant:
China’s Consumer and the China-Australia Free
Trade Agreement. Prior to joining ANZ, Justin
worked for the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Federal Treasury.
Tom Kenny is Senior Economist in ANZ’s Global
Economics team. He provides research and
analysis of the international economic environment
for ANZ’s corporate and institutional clients. Tom
has over 20 years’ experience in the field of
economics and finance. Before joining ANZ, he was
Chief Economist at Nomura Australia, where he
provided clients with insight into the Australian
economy, foreign exchange and interest rates. Tom
also spent 10 years working at the Commonwealth
Treasury and the Reserve Bank of Australia.
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Chapter 1: Key economic indicators:
forecast for 2016
Comments by Justin Fabo
Senior Economist, ANZ
ANZ’s key forecasts for 2016
• Aussie dollar – US 64 cents by the end of 2016
• Interest rates – 1.5% (RBA cash rate)
• Business investment – down 11% (includes mining and non-
mining, adjusted for inflation)
• Business credit – up 4.5%
• Overall household consumption – up 2.8%
• Wages – up 2.3%
• Employment – up 2%
• Inflation – 1.5%
Figure 1: Australian dollar Source: Bloomberg, ANZ Research
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What is your forecast for the AUD in 2016?
The Aussie dollar has already fallen nearly 40 cents against the US dollar
since its peak of $1.10 in 2011, and it has continued to fall over the past 12
months. The main driver of that fall is commodity prices, or Australia’s ‘terms
of trade’.
The terms of trade is the medium-term anchor for the currency and we expect
commodity prices to remain under pressure in 2016, so that’s the key
reason for our forecast for the AUD to be in the mid-60s by the end of 2016.
The other reason for our forecast is that we expect interest rates here to
fall a little further, whereas interest rates in the US are starting to go up.
The interest rate differential can also be an important driver of the currency
and it is looking to be less in favour of the Aussie dollar in 2016.
Figure 2: Australian dollar short run Source: Bloomberg, ANZ Research
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What is your forecast for Interest Rates in 2016?
This is a controversial one because there are only a few economic houses
calling for interest rates to fall a little further, and ANZ is one of them. The
majority are forecasting rates to stay flat throughout 2016 (at the time of
writing in mid-December 2015).
We have forecast the RBA cash rate will fall to 1.5% because we think the
economy – particularly the unemployment rate and the non-mining economy –
could do with a bit more of a nudge. One way to do that in the short term is
through modestly lower interest rates.
Inflation is no barrier to that as it’s around the bottom of the RBA’s 2-3%
target band and they have said they have scope for easing. Housing market
activity has also cooled in the major cities, removing an important hurdle
for further rate cuts.
Figure 3: RBA cash rate expectations Source: Bloomberg, ANZ Research
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What is your forecast for Business Investment in
2016?
There are two parts to this – mining and non-mining – and they’re both pretty
weak. In terms of actual numbers, mining investment is still falling and
that’s the big contributor to the 11% fall in business investment we have
forecast.
That fall is playing out as expected in the mining sector and it has another 18
months to two years to run. It is a drag on the economy, but that drag is
currently probably as bad as it will get.
For non-mining business investment, however, the story is a bit more
interesting. Non-mining investment has been pretty weak since the GFC for
various reasons, one being that the goods part of the economy, which is more
capital intensive, is quite weak, whereas the services part of the economy,
which is more labour intensive, is doing okay and supporting growth.
Figure 4: Business investment Source: ABS, ANZ Research
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We and the RBA have become more relaxed about the weak business
investment story because we’re seeing jobs growth instead, and we expect
that growth to remain pretty services driven over the next year.
The forward-looking indicators are saying there won’t be any pick-up in non-
mining investment, so we’ve still got a relatively flat outlook there for 2016.
Total business investment (includes mining and non-mining,
adjusted for inflation):
• 2014 – down 4.2%
• 2015 – expecting fall of 10%
• 2016 – forecast fall of 11%
What is your forecast for Business Credit in 2016?
We have forecast 4.5% growth, which is a bit better than what we’ve seen
over the past couple of years but, given the weak starting point, it’s not much
of a recovery.
The actual numbers coming in on business credit growth have improved in
recent months and we see that modest improvement continuing. This has
been driven by more activity around borrowing for property, mergers and
acquisitions activity, but the flat outlook for business investment means we’re
unlikely to see firms going out and borrowing at a much faster rate.
Our own data at ANZ shows a number of businesses still getting their balance
sheets in order and paying down debt, so that’s limiting the pick-up in
business credit growth as well.
Business credit growth:
• 2013 – 1.5% growth
• 2014 – 3.6% growth
• 2015 – expecting 5.6% growth
• 2016 – forecast 4.5% growth
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Businesses are also still saying ‘we’re not investing because we’re just
making sure the pick-up we’re seeing in spending is going to last’. They’ve
been saying that for two or three years so it’s possible this conservatism story
is actually just ‘normal’.
(It’s a similar story for households. Household confidence is actually around
the long-term average but spending growth is below average, so it feels like
things are simply different now than they were pre-GFC.)
Figure 5: Household income versus consumption growth Source: ABS, ANZ Research
What is your forecast for Overall Household
Consumption in 2016?
Household spending is looking a little better, forecast to rise by 2.8%, but we
don’t see it being driven by much of a pick-up in wages growth. Instead overall
income growth looks a little better because we’re seeing some jobs growth.
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However, in this environment of falling commodity prices and weak national
income, we’re not seeing the jobs growth deliver as big an upside to
household spending growth as we might have otherwise.
We do see some spending improvements coming from the fact the currency is
lower and tourism has picked up. This means some retailers will benefit from
household spending being redirected back home, but there will also be a
benefit from spending by overseas visitors. That has been an important part of
the story over the past 12 months and probably will be in 2016 as well.
Overall Household Consumption Growth (adjusted for inflation):
• 2014 – 2.7%
• 2015 – expecting 2.6%
• 2016 – forecast 2.8%
Figure 6: Household consumption and non-mining business investment
Source: ABS, ANZ Research
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What is your forecast for Wages in 2016?
Wages growth looks like it’s bottomed out in recent quarters, at around 2.25%.
We’re forecasting more of the same – wages up 2.3%. Adjusting for
inflation, it means real wages are growing only very modestly and we see that
continuing for another year.
The big picture story is that ever since the terms of trade started falling, real
wages haven’t grown much. As long as the terms of trade keep falling, and
we think they will, businesses just can’t afford to give bigger pay
increases and, on the household side, job insecurity is still a bit elevated, so
people are not going to go out and ask for larger wage increases.
What is your forecast for Employment in 2016?
Employment growth has been pretty strong over the past year and most of it
has been in just a few service industries that are very labour intensive.
Jobs growth in that services part of the economy is probably a bit above
average at the moment, which is good news and has helped to keep the
unemployment rate pretty flat or even a little bit lower.
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The growth has been in household services industries such as health,
education and real estate, and hospitality due to increased tourism. Some
professional services firms have also been hiring, in part due to flow-on
effects from strong property markets. The easing of fiscal restraint by
governments has also meant it’s no longer a strong headwind to jobs growth.
For 2016 we see about 2% employment growth which is a little above
average and will be good for household confidence.
Most of the jobs are being generated in industries or occupations where
wages aren’t particularly high, however, such as hospitality jobs which tend
to have lower than average hours worked and wages. This means the overall
boost to household incomes is more modest. It should be a good news story
for youth unemployment, however, which is still high but has fallen a little
recently.
What is your forecast for Inflation in 2016?
When we look at inflation we tend to look at core or underlying inflation, rather
than headline inflation which is impacted by temporary factors, including
swings in petrol prices.
Headline inflation is expected to be about 1.5% in 2015 and the same in
2016, which is pretty low.
For underlying inflation we’re looking at about 2% or a bit below for 2016.
Either way it’s low inflation by Australian standards – at the bottom of the
RBA’s target range.
Globally there has been ‘disinflation’, or falling inflation (not deflation), and that
is keeping a lid on our inflation here. We’ve also had our own issues in
Australia regarding falling commodity prices and the effect that has on income,
spending and pricing, which also weighs on inflation.
All those issues flow through to create soft wages growth, which means there
is no inflation pressure on the cost side and that will continue.
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Chapter 2: Economic outlook and its
impact on SMEs in 2016
Comments by Justin Fabo
Senior Economist, ANZ
What is the outlook for the Australian economy in
2016 and what are the implications for Australian
business?
We see some further modest improvement in overall growth for the
economy in 2016. We’re looking at overall GDP growth of 2.3% for 2015,
although it’s running a bit faster than that now (mid-December). With that as a
starting point we’re forecasting about 2.7% GDP growth for 2016.
Figure 7: GDP growth forecasts Source: ABS, ANZ Research
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We still think that is not fast enough to result in persistent falls in the
unemployment rate, but it’s okay given some of the big challenges the
economy is facing. These are the same challenges we’ve faced for the past
couple of year: falling mining investment and falling commodity prices.
The big one is falling mining investment, which has another couple of
years to run. As far as being a drag on the economy, however, it’s probably
as bad as it gets at the moment.
Commodity prices are still falling, so that’s dragging on our incomes across
the economy. This means it’s hard to get significant upside surprises from
things like government spending, household spending and business spending.
The overall picture is more of the same: okay growth, not strong growth. If you
are in business it will depend which part of the economy you’re in as to how
you can expect to perform in 2016.
Labour market a bright spot
Even though the story hasn’t changed much over the past couple of years and
we only have ‘okay-ish’ growth at the headline level, the economy is
tracking along probably a little better than many feared a year or two ago.
The key reason is the labour market, which has turned out better than
expected over the past 12 months. The unemployment rate has fallen a little
to just below 6 per cent which is still too high, but it’s not rising.
We think further inroads into that might be limited in 2016, however even that
is a tricky one to predict because some of the indicators (job ads) are showing
it may fall a little further in the near term, which would be good.
Profit margins still tight
It is highly unlikely that many businesses are going to see renewed
pricing power in 2016.
Pressure on margins and costs is likely to continue, though probably not as
harshly as in the past couple of years.
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We’ve seen evidence where some businesses have been able to recoup
margins a little bit, but not a lot.
Businesses that can still find productivity improvements are the ones that
will see profit growth in the next year.
Falling currency has mixed impact
The currency usually acts as a bit of a shock absorber, so if it is being
driven down by lower commodity prices it tends to absorb a bit of that shock to
the rest of economy.
To understand how it does that the first thing to note is ‘why’ is it falling? In
this case it’s because our national income is still being squeezed by lower
commodity prices, which has a negative income effect for most people in the
economy.
However the falling currency absorbs some of that pain by making imported
goods and services more expensive, so some of our spending is redirected
back towards domestic businesses.
That’s of benefit to businesses to varying degrees depending on what industry
you’re in, and we’re definitely seeing it already, particularly on the services
side.
The falling currency also provides some support to exporters, however, given
the fact few small businesses export, it’s the import substitution effect that will
provide the biggest boost for most SMEs.
Services sector driving economy
Some businesses in services industries are doing quite well at the moment
due to some big forces supporting growth in that sector.
One of those forces is the fall in the currency, which is seeing a pretty big
turnaround in our services trade with the rest of the world and that is filtering
through to the services sectors in our economy. The big beneficiaries are
tourism and education, which are tracking quite nicely.
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Another force has been the strong housing cycle. The strong pick-up in
housing turnover and housing activity – not just prices – always has strong
flow-on effects to the rest of the economy, whether it be through spending in
manufacturing sectors that make materials, or spending on services like
finance and mortgage brokers, real estate professionals and so on.
We’re likely to see those two strong influences on growth – currency and the
property cycle – last another six to nine months before they will wane. It’s
then more difficult to see where the upside may come from in terms of other
factors to drive growth.
Figure 8: Dwelling construction outlook Source: ABS, PCA, ANZ Research
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What are the downside risks for the economy in
2016?
Because we’re a small economy we always need to look offshore and the big
risk offshore is any major hiccup in the emerging part of the world.
Some of these areas, particularly China, other parts of emerging Asia and
some areas of South America, including Brazil, have borrowed heavily in
recent years. Their debt levels have risen significantly so this issue around
leverage is important in some of these economies. If they’re unlucky, it could
get a bit ugly and Australia would feel the impact, particularly through even
weaker commodity prices.
The risks to our commodity prices are still tilted a little to the downside.
Figure 9: Terms of trade versus Australian dollar Source: ABS, ANZ Research
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What are the upside risks for the economy in 2016?
In terms of upside risks it’s possible that places like the US could continue to
surprise us in 2016. It’s still the biggest economy in the world, so any
improvement would be a positive for us.
Domestically, the biggest upside risk would come from the fact we may be
wrong on our labour market predictions and the strength we’ve seen in
employment growth could continue for longer than we think.
If that happens consumer spending in the economy may be a little stronger
than we think in 2016 and clearly that would benefit most businesses’ bottom
lines.
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Chapter 3: International economic
outlook in 2016
Comments by Tom Kenny
Senior Economist, ANZ
What is the outlook for the international economy in
2016?
ANZ is forecasting the global economy to grow at 3.5% in 2016 and 2017,
which would be slightly up from the current year.
A story of steady growth seems a reasonably benign story, but underneath we
see considerable cross-currents. Although prospects for advanced economies
are encouraging, there is a lot of uncertainty over the outlook for emerging
markets, particularly China.
Figure 10: World GDP Source: IMF, ANZ Research
-‐1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
%
1990-‐2008
avg 2000-‐2008
avg
forecasts
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Advanced economies unspectacular
We are optimistic about the outlook for advanced economies, however
the growth from these economies is far from spectacular.
In recent years we have witnessed a slowing in longer-term potential
growth. This reflects reduced productivity growth and demographic factors i.e.
ageing populations. So these economies’ longer-term growth prospects aren’t
as positive as they were a decade or so ago.
Figure 11: Advanced economies' GDP Source: IMF, ANZ Research
Uncertainty in emerging markets
Growth in emerging markets over the next couple of years is expected to be
well under historical averages. In part this reflects slower growth in China,
which is only natural after an extended period of exceptionally strong growth.
For ANZ, the biggest uncertainty over the global growth outlook revolves
around what is happening in emerging markets, in particular prospects for
China with its transition to a more domestic-focused, consumer-based
economy.
-‐5
-‐4
-‐3
-‐2
-‐1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
%
1990-‐2008
avg 2000-‐2008
avg
forecasts
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Previously, the Chinese growth model was about investment and exports. It
was clear to the rest of the world what the knock-on effects were from this
growth model. In particular, it was a very positive story for commodity
producers and exporters like Australia and Brazil.
However, the knock-on effects for the rest of the world from China’s
transition to a more service-based and consumption-based economy is
a bit of an unknown.
One area in which many countries are starting to experience rapid growth is
inbound tourism from China. This is expected to continue to grow as more
Chinese migrate to the middle class.
However, in terms of other benefits to global trade from the rise of a Chinese
consumer, we are less certain.
Figure 12: Emerging economies' GDP Source: IMF, ANZ Research
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
%
1990-‐2008
avg 2000-‐2008
avg
forecasts
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What is the outlook for the Chinese economy in
2016?
ANZ is predicting China to grow by 6.3-6.5% over the next couple of years.
Although the headline number looks good, we probably don’t fully appreciate
or understand the implications of the changing growth drivers.
Figure 13: China GDP Source: CEIC, ANZ Research
For many years China has been building up a large domestic productive
capacity base which, in turn, has been supplying the world with a lot of
manufacturing and consumption goods. Going forward, this domestic
capacity is likely to be used increasingly to meet internal demand. Thus
there may be limited opportunities for the rest of the world to supply goods to
Chinese consumers.
In addition, the slowing in fixed asset investment will result in demand for
commodities cooling. This is already having pronounced impact on commodity
producers and prices.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sep 2000 Sep 2003 Sep 2006 Sep 2009 Sep 2012 Sep 2015
%y/y
Secondary Aggregate Tertiary
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Ongoing volatility
China is currently undertaking a significant amount of reform, including
financial liberalisation. Inclusive in the latter reform is a move toward a more
flexible currency. It is difficult to envisage a scenario in which these reforms
can be undertaken smoothly, thus we expect to see some volatility in
global financial markets as a result.
Indeed, in 2015 we saw that turmoil in Chinese equity markets had negative
spill-over implications for other financial markets. In addition, a relatively
modest revaluation of the Yuan in August had sizable ripple effects on global
currency markets.
What is the outlook for the Japanese economy in
2016?
(‘Abenomics’ refers to the stimulatory economic policies of Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe and is based upon three arrows: fiscal stimulus, monetary
easing and structural reforms.)
We’ve just finished our third year of Abenomics and the first two arrows,
particularly monetary policy, have had some success in delivering
improvements in the equity markets and have also resulted in a significant
depreciation in the Yen to a level which Japanese authorities think is fair value.
What has been disappointing is the third arrow – the reform arrow – which is
about lifting the longer term growth potential of Japan.
Abenomics trying to halt shrinking workforce
Abenomics is targeting 3% nominal growth over the next five or so years
and to deliver on that they’re expecting real growth of around 2%.
We believe their underlying real growth is more like 0.5%, so the
government will need to deliver much more quickly on reform if they are to get
anywhere near their target.
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Japan has an ageing and shrinking population, so they need to stop the
population shrinking and encourage more people into the workforce. Prime
Minister Abe has pledged to stop the population slide at a level over 100
million – it is currently 127 million.
Figure 14: Japanese population Source: IPSS
To boost population the government could consider immigration. Although
there is openness to some specialised skilled immigration, there is unlikely to
be acceptance of a broader program any time soon. Instead Prime Minister
Abe is promoting other ways to stabilise the population, including encouraging
fertility.
To support more women back into the workforce, the government is
introducing better childcare facilities. The government is also aiming to bolster
the health and aged care industry so people caring for elderly relatives can
return to work.
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Pushing for productivity
Many domestic-focused industries in Japan are inefficient, so part of
Abenomics’ goal has been to open up the domestic economy to outside
forces in an effort to boost productivity. Prime Minister Abe has pushed
hard for Japan’s inclusion in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), as he
regards this as an opportunity to make the Japanese economy more
externally focused and more dynamic.
The government has also implemented some reform in the electricity industry,
which has been heavily regulated. However, there hasn’t been much more
concrete done on structural reform as yet.
Overall economic outlook positive
Broadly speaking the Japanese economy looks okay. The government and
Bank of Japan have been arguing for a while that there is a ‘virtuous
cycle’ falling into place and ANZ would agree.
The outlook for business spending is positive amid record profitability. In
addition, prospects for consumer spending are encouraging as real wages are
rising owing to very solid labour market fundaments. The increase in real
wages is coming after an extended period of negative growth, which is very
negative for consumption.
All up the outlook for the Japanese economy is positive but, that being said,
ANZ only expects GDP growth of around 1% over the next couple of
years.
Future issues for Australia
One issue for Australia in the longer term centres around supply of liquid
natural gas (LNG) and coal.
Japan is one of the leading manufacturers of coal-fired power stations but
they’ve made announcements recently about cutting back on this investment
as a commitment to cleaner energy.
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Although they’re planning on reopening their nuclear reactors after they were
shut down after the Fukushima accident, this will take a long time, if it
happens at all.
Thus it is a reasonably positive story for Australian gas producers, but less so
for coal exporters.
What is the outlook for the United States economy
in 2016?
ANZ is looking at GDP growth in the US of 2.25% for the next couple of
years, which would be slightly higher than its trend.
A major issue facing the US economy in 2016 will be the tightening of
monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This will be the US
economy’s first taste of higher interest rates in nearly a decade and how
households and businesses react will be a key dynamic for the economy.
What we do know is that the Fed will raise interest rates very gradually and
thus monetary policy will remain very accommodative for some time, given
that rates are coming off zero.
As Justin said in the previous chapter, the US economy is still the biggest
in the world and US consumers are significant buyers of imported
goods and services. For these reasons improvements in the US economy
always have positive flow-on effects in Australia.
Rising inflation pressures
Could 2016 be the year we see a notable pick-up in inflation in the US?
Unemployment in the US is down at 5% which is close to full employment, or
the natural rate of unemployment. When the US labour market has
approached this point in the past, typically we start to see a pick-up in wage
pressures. This is turn puts upward pressure on inflation.
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For now US inflation is relatively subdued as domestic-sourced prices are yet
to pick up in a meaningful way. Meanwhile, US dollar strength and subdued
global prices are pulling US inflation down.
The US Fed believes the latter dynamics are just transitory and will fade, and
that inflation will likely quicken as domestic price pressures become more
pronounced. However, there remains some uncertainty about how long these
‘transitory’ forces will continue to hold down inflation.
Inflation will be key to Fed monetary policy deliberations in 2016. Should
inflation evolve more slowly than the central bank is forecasting, policy will be
tightened far more gradually. Conversely, if inflation grows more quickly than
the central bank is anticipating, policy will be tightened more rapidly.
Potential for growth in capital expenditure
Of interest is whether there is potential for a surprise in business capex.
For a number of years US businesses have been focusing on their capital
structure. Companies have taken advantage of low-cost debt to buy back
equity. As a consequence, business investment has been relatively subdued.
Given that the US economy is returning to more normal conditions and the
labour market is getting tight, it could be a year that capital expenditure might
surprise. This would be a positive upside risk for the US economy.
Opportunities in the housing market
Another positive risk for the US economy is the housing market. We still
haven’t seen housing activity return to ‘pre-crisis levels’ so there remains
potential for positive growth surprises in this sector.
New housing supply coming onto the market is well below what is required by
the demographics. Typically, over the long run, roughly 1.5 million housing
starts are required per year. Currently the US is building just fewer than 1.2
million houses, still 25% below its long-term needs, thus indicating there is
still potential for the housing market to improve.
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Downside risks for the US and Australian exporters
In recent times a number of Fed officials have been highlighting that US
job growth is set to slow now the economy is close to full employment. This
is because there is less labour supply.
Slower employment growth means less household income and thus softer
consumption and overall GDP growth.
Figure 15: US unemployment rate Source: BLS, FOMC, ANZ Research
3
5
7
9
11
80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15
%
Fed
estimate
of
"NAIRU
"4.9%
to
5.2%
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What is the outlook for the European economy in
2016?
The EU had a double-dip recession coming out of the GFC. Currently growth
is looking the best it has for a number of years and the prospects are relatively
positive. ANZ is expecting the Euro area to grow by around 1.5% over the
next couple of years.
That being said, the EU still has some ways to go to repairing their economies
in terms of lost output, lost jobs and so on. This means there remains a
sizable amount of unemployed resources in Europe. As a consequence
inflation pressures are very subdued in the Euro area.
ANZ expects that the European Central Bank (ECB) will keep monetary policy
highly stimulatory for a considerable period. Indeed, the central bank will
continue to hold an easing bias for some time given that both headline and
core inflation are expected to undershoot its price stability objective of just
under 2% for the next year or so.
Domestic drivers looking positive
On the positive side, many domestic drivers in the European economy
are looking increasingly more favourable.
We’re seeing a reasonable contribution from household consumption to
growth. Household spending is currently growing (1.7% year on year) at its
fastest pace since the GFC. This improvement reflects a couple of factors:
improved jobs market and an end to deleveraging.
More generally, a couple of major headwinds for growth have subsided. We
are now starting to see growth in private credit after a substantial period of
deleveraging by both households and businesses. In addition, the pace of
fiscal consolidation has slowed markedly.
The United Kingdom economy and currency has been doing very well,
so there are potentially a lot of positives for Australia in terms of tourism
from the UK.
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Geopolitical uncertainty
A potential ‘Grexit’ (Greek exit from the eurozone) seems less of a risk for the
region, though there remains a fair bit of work to be done to reduce Greece’s
elevated and unsustainably high debt.
A big issue for Europe in 2016 will be the ongoing refugee crisis and the
ability of the economies to integrate them successfully. The threat of
terrorism, the refugee crisis and the potential for more extremism in political
feeling towards immigration and settlement of refugees are all significant
issues which would further complicate an already difficult situation.