The document provides an overview of the economic outlook for Australia based on media coverage from December 2016 to February 2017. Key points include:
- The Australian economy contracted in the September quarter but is expected to avoid a technical recession. Growth is forecast to be around 2.8% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018.
- Housing affordability is at record lows in Sydney and Melbourne but an oversupply of apartments could lead to price drops later in 2017.
- Risks to the economic outlook include a slowdown in China, higher interest rates in the US, and potential job losses in the automotive and mining industries.
- The jobs market saw stronger part-time employment and lower full
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
I wanted to pass along our 4th quarter Economic Insights piece that we have just put together. This is a 15 page chart book that reviews market performance and looks at the various events that will impact the markets in the coming months. Of particular note, I think you will find the correlation of the markets and the U.S. election interesting (page 8). We also point out a number of themes (on pages 4-5) that could affect all of our client portfolios. As always, we use a lot of graphs and pictures to try and paint a simple story.
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
UK corporate environment - November 2019Deloitte UK
1. Macro environment - Global economy set to grow at slowest pace since 2010 this year, and remain below trend in 2020. UK growth to remain soft this year and next. Brexit and geopolitical uncertainty loom large.
2. Momentum – UK avoided recession in Q3, business investment declining, manufacturing activity soft, household spending holding up but slowing.
3. Operating costs – cost pressures due to tight labour market but may loosen as firms pull back on hiring. Commodity prices and rental values soft. Credit conditions expected to tighten.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite near lowest level since 2008, focus on cost reduction, deleveraging and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit still relatively cheap and easily available but signs of tightening, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
These are our views (macro, technical as well as quantitative) on the financial markets for the month to come...
FinLight Research is a quantitative cross-asset research firm with an expertise in real assets analysis and a focus on some specific issues: risk budgeting, asset allocation, trading systems and business intelligence.
From here, we are rethinking, day after day, the investment paradigm, preparing optimally for what lies ahead… This is our pretension!
http://pwc.to/1lN91cC
Comme tous les mois, l’équipe d’économistes de PwC publie une note sur la situation macro-économique mondiale. Ce mois-ci, focus sur l’accroissement des inégalités dans les pays matures ; les incertitudes concernant la croissance chinoise ; et les prévisions de croissance pour la Grande-Bretagne.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
By Principal
Global outlook: Slowing growth but a world in better health. We expect the global economy to grow at a slower pace in 2022 as fiscal and monetary tailwinds fade. Inflation, supply chains, and central banking policies will be key for investors in an environment where pandemic-induced changes and disruptions continue to reverberate.
Inflation: Persistent or transient? We believe inflation is likely to remain elevated in 2022 and recommend investors be open-minded on the impact to their portfolio construction and rebalancing needs. Once supply chain bottlenecks and labor pressures ease, we expect inflation to moderate.
Monetary policy will be in the crosshairs. Central banks have indicated that the clock is ticking down on extraordinary monetary policies in response to COVID-19. Given the uncertainty around inflation, policy shifts
will be challenging to execute and there will be significant pressure on central banks to get policy “just right”.
Change induced by the pandemic is creating investment opportunities.
Our investment strategy identifies key themes and strategic drivers that have been strengthened by the pandemic. Niche, or non-traditional sectors, that remained particularly resilient are one of the most significant
investment opportunities emerging from the pandemic.
Office demand has weakened and may rebalance the sector. Lower-quality or poorly located offices in urban markets are clearly disrupted and need to be treated with caution. Investors need to enhance their
opportunity set to markets that offer a compelling mix of lifestyle, talent, and demographics while focusing on high-quality assets that are positioned to meet the evolving environmental, social, and governance (ESG) needs of tenants.
Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016 Credit Suisse
Against the backdrop of the first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in almost a decade, the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s Global Investment Returns Yearbook examines similar episodes since 1900 and derives potential implications for future economic and financial market developments.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1QSo6qn
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1T9sTbe
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
Measuring the Effectiveness of your Media StrategyLars Voedisch
Do you need to determine the journalists covering specific subject matter to pitch and prepare an executive for an interview?
Do you know your Competitive share of voice in the different lines of business?
Are you entering into new segments and markets and want a media pulse?
Dow Jones take on how to get quick answers to these pressing questions.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
I wanted to pass along our 4th quarter Economic Insights piece that we have just put together. This is a 15 page chart book that reviews market performance and looks at the various events that will impact the markets in the coming months. Of particular note, I think you will find the correlation of the markets and the U.S. election interesting (page 8). We also point out a number of themes (on pages 4-5) that could affect all of our client portfolios. As always, we use a lot of graphs and pictures to try and paint a simple story.
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
UK corporate environment - November 2019Deloitte UK
1. Macro environment - Global economy set to grow at slowest pace since 2010 this year, and remain below trend in 2020. UK growth to remain soft this year and next. Brexit and geopolitical uncertainty loom large.
2. Momentum – UK avoided recession in Q3, business investment declining, manufacturing activity soft, household spending holding up but slowing.
3. Operating costs – cost pressures due to tight labour market but may loosen as firms pull back on hiring. Commodity prices and rental values soft. Credit conditions expected to tighten.
4. Corporate stance – risk appetite near lowest level since 2008, focus on cost reduction, deleveraging and increasing cash flow.
5. Balance sheet – cash rich, credit still relatively cheap and easily available but signs of tightening, profits falling.
6. Risks – effects of Brexit and weak domestic demand, rising global geopolitical risk and protectionism also a worry for large UK corporates.
These are our views (macro, technical as well as quantitative) on the financial markets for the month to come...
FinLight Research is a quantitative cross-asset research firm with an expertise in real assets analysis and a focus on some specific issues: risk budgeting, asset allocation, trading systems and business intelligence.
From here, we are rethinking, day after day, the investment paradigm, preparing optimally for what lies ahead… This is our pretension!
http://pwc.to/1lN91cC
Comme tous les mois, l’équipe d’économistes de PwC publie une note sur la situation macro-économique mondiale. Ce mois-ci, focus sur l’accroissement des inégalités dans les pays matures ; les incertitudes concernant la croissance chinoise ; et les prévisions de croissance pour la Grande-Bretagne.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
By Principal
Global outlook: Slowing growth but a world in better health. We expect the global economy to grow at a slower pace in 2022 as fiscal and monetary tailwinds fade. Inflation, supply chains, and central banking policies will be key for investors in an environment where pandemic-induced changes and disruptions continue to reverberate.
Inflation: Persistent or transient? We believe inflation is likely to remain elevated in 2022 and recommend investors be open-minded on the impact to their portfolio construction and rebalancing needs. Once supply chain bottlenecks and labor pressures ease, we expect inflation to moderate.
Monetary policy will be in the crosshairs. Central banks have indicated that the clock is ticking down on extraordinary monetary policies in response to COVID-19. Given the uncertainty around inflation, policy shifts
will be challenging to execute and there will be significant pressure on central banks to get policy “just right”.
Change induced by the pandemic is creating investment opportunities.
Our investment strategy identifies key themes and strategic drivers that have been strengthened by the pandemic. Niche, or non-traditional sectors, that remained particularly resilient are one of the most significant
investment opportunities emerging from the pandemic.
Office demand has weakened and may rebalance the sector. Lower-quality or poorly located offices in urban markets are clearly disrupted and need to be treated with caution. Investors need to enhance their
opportunity set to markets that offer a compelling mix of lifestyle, talent, and demographics while focusing on high-quality assets that are positioned to meet the evolving environmental, social, and governance (ESG) needs of tenants.
Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016 Credit Suisse
Against the backdrop of the first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in almost a decade, the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s Global Investment Returns Yearbook examines similar episodes since 1900 and derives potential implications for future economic and financial market developments.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1QSo6qn
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1T9sTbe
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
Measuring the Effectiveness of your Media StrategyLars Voedisch
Do you need to determine the journalists covering specific subject matter to pitch and prepare an executive for an interview?
Do you know your Competitive share of voice in the different lines of business?
Are you entering into new segments and markets and want a media pulse?
Dow Jones take on how to get quick answers to these pressing questions.
Chinese Social Media Brief: Overview, SNS Analysis and Key TrendsImagination
Imagination's creative strategy team provide an inside look at the present state of the social media environment in China and the newest emerging trends.
White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space.
This presentation was made for educational purpose of Product and Brand Management. The survey/stats used for presentation is not represent India or Asian countries...
A Marketer's Guide to Behavioral Email GuideFilipp Paster
White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space. White space.
This is a brand campaign presentation for Dabur Odomos made by a group of students of Advertising and Public Relations at Indian Institute of Mass Communication, New Delhi (IIMC) as part of their college project.
Links for the videos:
Vox Pop: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1VlHo7a9nY
Television Commercial 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jbb2ojJgmn8
Television Commercial 2: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SXDnw84VMdY
Radio Commercial: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41AKaWHaPSo
A step-by-step approach for developing strategic, thematic content. Learn how to use the three Es: educate, entertain and excite your audience to package and deliver your content. We will be unboxing social and “taking the shiny out of social media."
1. Global activity easing
2. Slowdown most apparent in euro area
3. China transitioning to slower growth, service economy
4. Central banks pulling back from tightening
5. UK growth dependent on Brexit: exit deal could see GDP growth > 1.0% this year, no deal growth could be < 0.5%
6. Risks to global growth tilting to downside
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
It is likely that the impending trade war will be limited to individual product groups. If so, growth will continue in Finland this and the next year. The economic recovery shows that Finland has not been endowed with the exceptionally serious structural problems as alleged. Because of spending cuts and other measures, the strong economic development will not improve the situation of all population groups equally. The growth of income inequality should be mitigated by updating basic social security, which would include index adjustments of benefits no later than 2019.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Economic and Structural Report August 2008, extract fromSwedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
NO1 Uk Divorce problem uk all amil baba in karachi,lahore,pakistan talaq ka m...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
Contact with Dawood Bhai Just call on +92322-6382012 and we'll help you. We'll solve all your problems within 12 to 24 hours and with 101% guarantee and with astrology systematic. If you want to take any personal or professional advice then also you can call us on +92322-6382012 , ONLINE LOVE PROBLEM & Other all types of Daily Life Problem's.Then CALL or WHATSAPP us on +92322-6382012 and Get all these problems solutions here by Amil Baba DAWOOD BANGALI
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The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
2. THE ECONOMY
The following summary of media coverage relating to the economic outlook
for Australia, covers the period:
Dec 2016-Feb 2017
Dated: 17 February, 2017
3. 0 120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Australia’s Economic Outlook
But in terms of the past 2 weeks, there’s been an overall
upswing in business & consumer sentiment. Business
survey out this week (Access Economics), shows a more
positive outlook.
Retail sales continued to slow in November, while
the labor market showed signs of moderation, with
the unemployment rate ticking up a couple of
notches to close out the year. This had a knock-on
effect on consumer sentiment, which ended 2016
on a low note and remained broadly stable at the
start of the year.
The Australian economy posted its worst performance
since the global financial crisis in the September
quarter 2016. While economists expect the economy
to avoid two consecutive quarters of negative growth
and a technical recession, it is a threat hanging over
the nation until the next set of national accounts
figures in early March. At an annual rate of 1.8% it is
running well below a long-run average of just under
three per cent, which will keep pressure on the
jobless rate. The government does not expect a three
per cent growth rate until the start of 2018.
The RBA has been reluctant to trim cash rate again, after
cutting to a record low of 1.5% in August 2016.
However, growth figures were weaker than the RBA had been
expecting, causing some economists to believe a cut will be on
the cards after the Feb meeting last week - this didn’t end up
happening.
4. Economic Outlook
Australia’s AAA credit rating survived the pre-Xmas
and Mid Year Economic Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO).
It’s not expected to survive the May Budget. Many
analysts believe S&P will strip Australia of its rating -
some speculating that it’s a matter of ‘when’ not
‘if’. But this is up for debate.
If this does happen, it could be an indication of the
Fed Govt’s limited capacity to respond to economic
challenges, amidst increased spending. And it has
the real potential to undermine Australia’s position
as a sound economic market, which will result in
foreign investment dollars pouring out of our
country. A tough position for the many businesses,
that rely on foreign investment.
This will also see an increase in the cost of offshore
funding for Australian banks, because of downgraded
credit ratings.
5. Economic Outlook
CHINA SLOWDOWN:
The biggest threat for Australia currently, is the
economic health of our biggest trading partner.
China’s private debt is up there as one of the
highest in the world (along with Australia’s).
Beyond a full-scale financial meltdown, there are
indications China will shift its economic focus, away
from heavy industry & construction to services.
Last year, China boosted commodity prices by
increasing infrastructure spending, relaxing
restrictions on real estate investment, and cutting
coal production. Even moderate moves to limit
growth in these sectors will see a backflip in the
commodity price gains, and with it, any potential
boost to Australia’s national income.
6. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY:
Houses in Sydney & Melbourne have never been
less affordable, relative to most measures, but
in particular relative to incomes & rents. Having
said that, there isn’t a housing shortage, in fact
with the proliferation of construction in
Australia, we’re likely to very soon, be seeing a
glut (especially of apartments).
Economic Outlook
The expectation is that there will be a drop in
investor demand: banks are under pressure to
uphold lending standards; global interest rates are
on the rise; there’s new taxes on foreign buyers;
and a crackdown on money leaving China - all of
which points to a drop in investor demand.
Hence, declining demand, increasing supply, an
already expensive product all point to a likely
price drop in property by the end of 2017 - an
expectation of many analysts.
7. Economic Outlook
REMEMBER:
Over the past few years,
Australia has embarked on
the most epic apartment
construction boom in our
history. With this likely
softening (thanks to the
glut), and knowing the
construction industry
accounts for almost 10% of
employment, this poses
another economic risk for
Australia this year.
Morgan Stanley predicts up
to 200,000 jobs could go, as
a result of the construction
downturn over the next
year. This could lead to an
unemployment rate of 6.5%.
8. Economic Outlook
THE TRUMP FACTOR:
Despite the positive sharemarket response to Trump’s
surprise win in November, there’s real concern about
ongoing positive impact, given his policy platform.
If he fails to deliver on his stimulus promises, the US
sharemarket will suffer, with inevitable global fallout.
Having said that, if Trump delivers on his promise to
boost infrastructure spending, the stimulus to the US
economy could see the Federal Reserve increase
interest rates faster than expected.
This will cause unease in developing markets, as
money is redirected back to the US. It will also
increase the cost of debt, which is largely dominated
by the $US.
Rising $US & interest rates could also undermine the
very economic recovery that is prompting them
higher.
Keep in mind, there will be significant fallout if
Trump delivers on his promises to roll back various
free trade agreements and impose new tariffs on
many major trading partners.
$US
$US
r
r
$US
9. Finland
Sweden
Estonia
Lithuania
Poland
Latvia
France
Germany
Spain
Italy
United Kingdom
Cyprus
Malta
Portugal
Ireland
Romania
Bulgaria
Greece
EUROPE:
Brexit was the shock of 2016, until Trump took
over the Whitehouse. This year, attention in
Europe will be on France & Germany who both
have elections.
In France, the right-wing candidate (a euro
sceptic) looks likely to win. In Germany, Angela
Merkel is under pressure mainly due to her policies
of welcoming Syrian refugees.
Italy will likely go to elections this year instead of
2018, after it lost its Prime Minister in 2016 whose
constitutional referendum was rejected.
In summary: if any of these nations pull out of the
common currency, there’s great risk the whole
Union will collapse. Which will make the Greek
debt crisis look minor.
Economic Outlook
10. Consumer sentiment rose by 0.3% in
September compared to August,
when it increased 2%. Hence the
index was up a healthy 8% on the
same quarter, YOY.
Wage growth will
remain weak in
2017/2018.
Budget deficit will
likely improve.
Housing construction
has peaked.
Adjustment to the
mining slowdown still
happening.
GDP is expected to
grow 2.8% this year,
rising to 2.9 in 2018.
The RBA is expected to
lift rates 3 times in
2018.
Economic Outlook
.3%
2.8%
11. In summary…
Australia’s shock economic contraction in the
September quarter, was likely a one-off - this means
we’ll likely surpass the Netherlands in having the
world’s longest-run without recession.
Most economists believe Australia has the potential
to continue growth throughout 2017. Having said
that, there seems to be a deep divide in the
expectations of analysts.
If there’s an ongoing slump in business investment,
this will be exacerbated by the likely slowdown in
housing construction. Couple this with a sluggish
consumption growth due to a negligible rise in real
wages and a weakening labour market, and we have
the grounds for a potentially shaky 2017.
Economic Outlook
12. JOBS OUTLOOK
The following summary of media coverage relating to the jobs outlook for
Australia, covers the period:
Dec 2016-Feb 2017
Dated: 17 February, 2017
13. • Australia’s jobless rate fell in January 2017, after a
significant surge in part-time work
• Unemployment rate fell to 5.7% from 5.8%, beating
expectations for a steady rate at 5.8%
• Part-time work increased by 58,300 jobs
• Decline of 44,800 full-time roles
• The number of people working full-time is no higher than it
was August 2015
• Wage growth is low, as people are working fewer hours,
and there’s an excess supply of labour
• Full-time job creation in the December quarter was the
strongest in 6 years, so the drop in Jan not surprising
• Total employment rose by 13,500
• Steady labour market supports the Reserve Bank’s take
that a gradual improvement in employment will take place
in 2017
• There are improvements in forward looking indicators for
the jobs market, according to NAB’s latest survey
• Labour force participation rate (measures proportion
of working age population either in a job or looking for
one), declined slightly in January to 64.6% from 64.7%,
helping push the unemployment rate lower
• Under-employment is increasing which is a concern,
whereby people aren’t getting the employment hours
they want or need
Labour Force
Participation Rate
Unemployment
Rate 5.7%
Jobs Outlook
With Ford shutting down at
the end of 2016, 600 jobs
were lost. When Holden &
Toyota follow suit, as it
expected this year,
automotive industry groups
estimate up to 40k jobs will
be lost: if none of these auto-
workers found new jobs, the
unemployment rate will rise
above 6%, it’s expected.
The risk posed by the auto
industry is potentially far-
reaching for both
unemployment and under-
employment: well-paid
manufacturing jobs will be
likely replaced with lower-
paid, part-time & casual
service sector jobs.
INDUSTRY SPOTLIGHT AUTOMOTIVE:
14. Over the past 12 months, employment
increased by 163,134, the smallest
annual gain recorded since April last
year. In percentage terms, employment
grew by 1.38% over the past year, also
the slowest pace since April 2015
Jobs Outlook
|
Part-time employment has grown by
5.4% over the past year, the fastest pace
seen since January 2010. On the other
hand, full-time employment has fallen
by 0.4%, the first decline registered
since April 2014. It now sits at the
lowest level since February 2013
Unemployment Rate in Australia
averaged 6.93% from 1978 until 2016,
reaching an all time high of 11.10% in
October of 1992 and a record low of 4%
in February 2008 (unemployment Rate in
Australia as reported by the Australian
Bureau of Statistics)
A similar risk to that of the
auto industry, faced with a
continuing downturn, rising
underemployment &
unemployment will result.
The RBA estimates at least
3/4 of the decline in mining
construction has passed. BIS
Shrapnel, alternatively,
believes Aus is only half way
through the resources
downturn.
The difference in estimates
is worth $10’s of billions &
10’s of thousands of jobs.
Mining related construction
employs far more during
construction, than
operation, at an estimated
ratio of 10 or 20:1.
INDUSTRY SPOTLIGHT: MINING
16. The exploding number of ‘gig’ or contingent workers, globally,
continues to dominate the workforce & HR media news.
This classification of worker is the fastest growing in the US
and is expected to continue into the foreseeable future.
We’re seeing a lot of coverage on how to manage contingent
workers, a sign that their credibility & importance in the
business environment is growing.
We’re also seeing significant coverage on the technology side
of managing contractors & gig workers.
Overall, the sentiment we’re seeing in the media is largely
positive. Mostly, the expectation is that the developments &
trends in the contingent workforce market that we saw taking
shape in 2016 (increased usage of contractors, technology
growth, increased usage of services procurement), will
continue in 2017.
Contract Work
17. Contract Work
There’s a firm belief that the majority of the
workforce, cobbling together to do ‘gigs’ is
overblown. Not everyone is going to freelance, but
technology is certainly gaining exposure, especially in
how we interface with and schedule work, including
‘support’ work and highly specialised skills.
Gigwalk is a software platform that’s a good example.
It provides mobile tools that help companies manage
their own distributed teams, and enable them to
seamlessly engage talent pools outside of their
business.
Said their CEO, David Hale: “The on-demand model
won’t disrupt & replace most companies, but
companies will definitely adopt on-demand
technology to provide schedule flexibility options for
their workforce”.
Performance metrics of gig and contingent
workers is becoming increasing important. In
particular, costs are monitored more closely, as
they are directly tied to operating margins, and
time to fill is being noted as a crucial metric.
For an organisation that hires thousands of
contractors each year, analysis & improvement
will have a significant
impact on the bottom line.
18. TECHNOLOGY
A broader coverage of the online tools
used to manage contingent workers.
Contract Work
CATALANT:
Over 30k professionals registered for on-demand
work. Companies use Catalant to access
professionals on an as-needs basis. “We help
companies find exactly what they need, when they
need it, whether that expertise is a highly skilled
freelancer, a large or small consulting firm, a
retiree from your firm, or a skilled expert”.
WORK MARKET:
Helps procurement professionals drive better
adherence to corporate standards and improve their
leverage of the supplier ecosystem - using a simple
algorithmic cloud-based software. It provides
quality supplier hygiene via the powerful software
which automates how labour is vetted, provisioned
& sourced. This is a progressive procurement
technology.
WONOLO:
An on-demand staffing network, able to predict
whether jobs are going to be filled, whether there
will be no-shows, or reliability issues.
Fundamentally changing the way companies are
finding workers and getting their jobs filled.
BRIGHTFIELD STRAGTEGIES:
A natural language processing software of job
descriptions for services procurement, to
automatically structure & summarise the
unstructured text of SOW contracts. Effectively, it
reads all the key elements of a contract into a
series of fields. Provides rapid visibility to services
procurement spending segments, spending
behaviours and potential savings.
19. EY study, released at the end of January 2017, found:
Contract Work
- One in two employers reported increasing their use of
gig workers over the last five years
- The number of workers engaged in alternative work
arrangements rose by 66% in the 10 years to 2015
- There are several reasons for this rapid increase in the
use of contingent workers, not the least of which is the
lasting effects of the 2008-9 global recession. This
period created a sharp focus on cost control, which
ultimately resulted in a contraction of full-time
employment
- Behavioural, regulatory and policy shifts, and changes in
expectations meant that both workers and organisations
adjusted to and embraced the flexibility that contingent
work arrangements provided, while technology served
to facilitate a more seamless interaction
- If part- time workers are included, a wider definition of
contingent work used that captures a range of
“alternative work arrangements”, as much as 40% to
50% of the workforce could be in non-permanent
employment by 2020
- In the UK, the number of self-employed has touched record
highs at 4.8 million, growing 28% over the 10 years to 2016,
against only 6% growth in UK employees in the same time
period
- There are similar stories of rapid growth in the self- employed
workforce in the Netherlands, Belgium, France and Australia.
The rise of the gig economy is increasingly a global
phenomenon
- There is also a more strategic and change management
element to drawing on contingent workers: organisations are
using contingent workers to overcome resistance to change
within legacy workforces
20. - When it comes to managing the contingent workforce, many
organisations currently suffer from fragmented governance
models, and manual systems and processes. In many cases,
organisations are using basic tools to measure contingent
workforce performance rather than data analytics
- While there are major opportunities to gain efficiencies from
the flexibility that embracing the gig economy offers,
organisations need to fix the lack of leadership accountability
and governance over their contingent workforce
- By working together and collaborating on ways to overcome
the potential risks, organisations and giggers alike can ride a
rising tide that will lift all boats to economic prosperity and
performance
!
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!!www.bls.net
Contract Work
EY study, released at the end of January 2017, found: