20141126 BH Report: Turkey (poultry)
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- Benjamin Franklin preferred the turkey over the bald eagle as the national symbol of the United States, finding the turkey to be a more respectable bird native to America. - Global turkey consumption has remained relatively flat over the last 10 years, while the United States is the largest producer, consumer, and exporter of turkey in the world. - Turkey consumption per capita is about 10 times higher in the United States than the global average, though chicken, beef, and pork are still more significant parts of the American diet.
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20141126 BH Report: Turkey (poultry)
- 1. BH Report: Turkey (poultry) 2014/11/26
- 2. Context Ben Franklin was apparently quite fond of the idea of having turkey as the national symbol, as opposed to the bald eagle... •"I am on this account not displeased that the Figure is not known as a Bald Eagle, but looks more like a Turkey. For the Truth the Turkey is in Comparison a much more respectable Bird, and withal a true original Native of America... He is besides, though a little vain & silly, a Bird of Courage, and would not hesitate to attack a Grenadier of the British Guards who should presume to invade his Farm Yard with a red Coat on" – Benjamin Franklin Thanksgiving is definitely one of my most favorite holidays, but I also eat turkey sandwiches throughout the year. This was definitely something I got accustomed to after coming to the US. Honestly, I didn't even know what turkey was until I came to the US In this report, I tried to explore the following: •How has global turkey consumption changed over time? •What is the positioning of US in the global market? •Where is turkey produced? •How does turkey compare with other meats (beef, pork, chicken)?
- 4. Global turkey consumption has virtually remained flat in the last 10 years 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 Global turkey consumption (million tonnes) 2011 +0.5% -0.4% +3.3% +5.0% +6.5% 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 1971 1970 1969 1968 1967 1966 1965 1964 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1963 1962 1961 1960 +8.3% 2014 2013 2012 2010 2009 2008 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 Source: US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Services
- 5. US is the largest producer, consumer and exporter 49 46 37 36 7 9 7 60 40 80 100 20 0 Other Canada Consumption 4,937 Brazil 3 Production 5,288 3 2 USA EU % 57 21 19 40 80 20 0 60 100 4 Brazil Other Canada USA 647 EU 0 % Export 23 10 60 Import 647 4 3 Mexico EU South Africa China Other/unkown Production and Consumption Export and Import Source: US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Services Largest importer of US turkey (~50% share)
- 6. Americans consume most turkey on per capita basis (~10x compared to the global average) 800 600 400 200 8 2 0 4 3 1 0 7 6 1,200 1,000 5 Mexico 1.7 Brazil Global average (0.7kg per person) Population (million) 4.3 7.1 USA 3.6 Turkey consumption per capita (2014, kg per person) EU Canada 1.3 ~10x Source: US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Services; WroldBank However, it is still smaller part of American diet compared to Chicken (44kg p.c.), Beef (35kg p.c.) and Pork (27kg p.c.)
- 8. 10 states produce ~80% of turkeys in the US... (mostly in the East) OR MT ID WY CA NV UT CO AZ NM TX OK KS NE SD WA ND MN IA MO AR WI IL MI IN OH PA NY KY WV TN VA NC SC MS AL GA FL ME DE NJ VT NH MA RI MD DC CT LA Source: National Turkey Federation States protruding >10% of turkeys in the US States protruding 2-10% of turkeys in the US
- 9. ... Corresponding mostly with the wild turkey population Source: The Wild Turkey Zone
- 10. US turkey export dramatically increased after 90's, while domestic consumption remained flat-ish 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1972 1971 1970 1969 1968 1967 1966 1965 1964 1962 1961 1960 +4.0% 2014 +0.5% +0.6% +1.9% +6.0% +3.8% US turkey consumption & export (million tonnes) % 1963 1973 2007 2012 2010 2009 2000 2008 2011 1990 2013 2004 2003 2001 2002 1999 2005 2006 1989 1992 1983 1994 1995 1991 1984 1987 1996 1988 1993 1986 1997 1985 1998 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 Export Consumption % Export Source: US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Services Likely driven by NAFTA (North America Free Trade Agreement) in early 90's which drove increased export to Canada/Mexico
- 11. Turkey consumption grew fast in lat 80's along with the maturing of large scale production... 0 2 4 6 8 10 1968 2010 1962 2011 1966 1972 1964 1980 1984 1974 1976 1982 1978 2013 1990 1970 1960 2000 1986 1988 1992 1994 1996 1998 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 1963 1961 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 American turkey consumption per person (kg per person) +2.6% -0.5% +7.8% .... but it has been declining over the last 25 years Source: US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Services
- 12. Not as successful as chicken in gaining popularity as the choice of meat, but still better off than beef and pork 3 7 12 14 16 16 20 23 28 30 33 36 37 39 39 32 31 25 31 27 26 26 24 23 24 24 50 50 55 44 45 39 37 36 34 33 31 4 4 4 5 7 6 6 6 6 46 40.0 60.0 80.0 0.0 20.0 100.0 Chicken Turkey 3 % share of American consumption of proteins (Pork, Beef, Chicken and Turkey) 1960 2005 2010 2014 Pork 1965 1975 Beef 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Source: US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Services
- 13. Disclaimer This document is provided for general information only and nothing contained in the material constitutes a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. Although the statements of fact in this report are obtained from sources that I consider reliable, I do not guarantee their accuracy and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. Views are subject to change on the basis of additional or new research, new facts or developments.