20131130 BH Report: Disney Animated Features

1. BH Report: Disney Animated Features
2013/11/30

2. Context
•I like Disney movies. I remember thinking that they were childish when I was younger, but as I watch these movies as an adult, I can appreciate the amount of effort put into making these films and the resulting high quality of the films... even when the plot is subpar, I can almost always rely on either animation style or the music
•After I had some conversations with my friend about the topic of 'favorite Disney films' – I came up with very simple questions: "just exactly how many Disney movies are there?" and "how did they do commercially?"
–For example, I really liked Treasure Planet but I also knew that many people thought it was bad, and that it was a flop from commercial perspectives
–On the other hand, I had no clue how the usual suspects of "best Disney movies" like The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin and The Little Mermaid all stacked up against each other
•I was shocked to find out that there are total of 52 full-length Disney Animated Features (that many!?) and I was also shocked to realize that I have already seen 30 out of the 52 without even realizing it
•Here are key questions I aimed to address in this report:
–Which ones are regarded as 'the best/worst' Disney movies? Does the list match up with what is commonly regarded as "Disney Renaissance" and "Revival Era"?
–Has Disney been commercially successful with their movies? how closely does popularity tie to box office sales?

3. There are 52 Disney animated features to date...
1. Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (1937)
2. Fantasia (1940)
3. Pinocchio (1940)
4. Dumbo (1941)
5. Bambi (1942)
6. Saludos Amigos (1942)
7. The Three Caballeros (1944)
8. Make Mine Music (1946)
9. Fun and Fancy Free (1947)
10. Melody Time (1948)
11. The Adventures of Ichabod and Mr. Toad (1949)
12. Cinderella (1950)
13. Alice in Wonderland (1951)
14. Peter Pan (1953)
15. Lady and the Tramp (1955)
16. Sleeping Beauty (1959)
17. One Hundred and One Dalmatians (1961)
18. The Sword in the Stone (1963)
19. The Jungle Book (1967)
20. The Aristocats (1970)
21. Robin Hood (1973)
22. The Rescuers (1977)
23. The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh (1977)
24. The Fox and the Hound (1981)
25. The Black Cauldron (1985)
26. The Great Mouse Detective (1986)
27. Oliver & Company (1988)
28. The Little Mermaid (1989)
29. The Rescuers Down Under (1990)
30. Beauty and the Beast (1991)
31. Aladdin (1992)
32. The Lion King (1994)
33. Pocahontas (1995)
34. The Hunchback of Notre Dame (1996)
35. Hercules (1997)
36. Mulan (1998)
37. Tarzan (1999)
38. Fantasia 2000 (1999)
39. Dinosaur (2000)
40. The Emperor's New Groove (2000)
41. Atlantis: The Lost Empire (2001)
42. Lilo & Stitch (2002)
43. Treasure Planet (2002)
44. Brother Bear (2003)
45. Home on the Range (2004)
46. Chicken Little (2005)
47. Meet the Robinsons (2007)
48. Bolt (2008)
49. The Princess and the Frog (2009)
50. Tangled (2010)
51. Winnie the Pooh (2011)
52. Wreck-It Ralph (2012)
Frozen opened in late November 2013 as the 53rd movie

4. Beginning Revival
era
Disney Renaissance
"People" generally agree that Disney movies peaked in early '90s
(the first 3 movies and also the last couple years have also been good)
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Treasure Planet (’02)
Lilo & Stitch (’02)
Atlantis (’01)
Emperor’s New Groove (’00)
Dinosaur (’00)
Fantasia 2000 (’99)
Tarzan (’99)
Mulan (’98)
Hercules (’97)
Hunchback (’96)
Pocahontas (’95)
The Lion King (’94)
Aladdin (’92)
Beauty and the Beast (’91)
Rescuers Down Under (’90)
The Little Mermaid (’89)
Oliver & Company (’88)
Great Mouse Detective (’86)
The Black Cauldron (’85)
The Fox and the Hound (’81)
Winnie the Pooh (77) (’77)
The Rescuers (’77)
Robin Hood (’73)
The Aristocats (’70)
The Jungle Book (’67)
IMDB score
Wreck-It Ralph (’12)
Chicken Little (’05)
Princess and the Frog (’09)
Winnie the Pooh (’11)
Tangled (’10)
Brother Bear (’03)
Bolt (’08)
Meet the Robinsons (’07)
Home on the Range (’04)
The Sword in the Stone (’63)
101 Dalmatians (’61)
Sleeping Beauty (’59)
Lady and the Tramp (’55)
Peter Pan (’53)
Alice in Wonderland (’51)
Cinderella (’50)
Ichabod (’49)
Melody Time (’48)
Fun and Fancy Free (’47)
Make Mine Music (’46)
The Three Caballeros (’44)
Saludos Amigos (’42)
Bambi (’42)
Dumbo (’41)
Pinocchio (’40)
Fantasia (’40)
Snow White (’37)
Death of Walt Disney
Source: IMDB

5. Revival
era
Disney Renaissance
Commercially, The Lion King is unparalleled in its success
(even without inflation adjustment)
34
592
314 310
109 104
186
91
325 305
504
3
39
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1000
Winnie the Pooh (’11)
Tangled (’10)
Princess and the Frog (’09)
267
Bolt (’08)
Meet the Robinsons (’07)
170
Chicken Little (’05)
Brother Bear (’03)
250
Treasure Planet (’02)
Home on the Range (’04)
Box office sales ($M) – Domestic & Foreign not including re-run – UNADJUSTED TO INFLATION
Wreck-It Ralph (’12)
Lilo & Stitch (’02)
273
Atlantis (’01)
Emperor’s New Groove (’00)
169
Dinosaur (’00)
350
Fantasia 2000 (’99)
Tarzan (’99)
448
Mulan (’98)
Hercules (’97)
253
471
Pocahontas (’95)
347
The Lion King (’94)
877
Aladdin (’92)
Beauty and the Beast (’91)
352
Hunchback (’96)
184
Bambi (’42)
Pinocchio (’40)
Fantasia (’40)
43
Snow White (’37)
67
The Little Mermaid (’89)
Source: Box Office Mojo

6. % foreign sales has always been ~50-65% range for the last 20 yrs
(exceptions are mostly movies that had small box office sales like Fantasia 2000)
20.0
0.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
100.0
45
55
47
41
64
57
43
36
59
41
69
31
61
39
60
40
62
38
33
67
61
39
47
53
46
54
40
53
59
Aladdin (’92)
The Lion King (’94)
Pocahontas (’95)
Hunchback (’96)
Hercules (’97)
Mulan (’98)
Tarzan (’99)
Fantasia 2000 (’99)
Dinosaur (’00)
Emperor’s New Groove (’00)
Atlantis (’01)
Lilo & Stitch (’02)
Treasure Planet (’02)
Brother Bear (’03)
Home on the Range (’04)
Chicken Little (’05)
Meet the Robinsons (’07)
Bolt (’08)
Beauty and the Beast (’91)
Princess and the Frog (’09)
Tangled (’10)
Winnie the Pooh (’11)
Wreck-It Ralph (’12)
65
35
The Little Mermaid (’89)
% of Box office sales not including re-run
52
34
66
48
57
43
42
58
63
37
61
39
66
34
21
79
60
Foreign Domestic
Source: Box Office Mojo

7. Revival
era
Disney Renaissance
Production budget has gone up substantially
(some "step increases" such as Hunchback $100M, Tangled $260M... perhaps CGI-related?)
150
165
30
260
105
150 150
110
120
100
130 128
100
55
45
25 28
2
0
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
Production budget ($M) – UNADJUSTED TO INFLATION
Wreck-It Ralph (’12)
Winnie the Pooh (’11)
Tangled (’10)
Princess and the Frog (’09)
Bolt (’08)
Meet the Robinsons (’07)
n/a
Chicken Little (’05)
Home on the Range (’04)
Brother Bear (’03)
n/a
Treasure Planet (’02)
140
Lilo & Stitch (’02)
80
Atlantis (’01)
Emperor’s New Groove (’00)
Dinosaur (’00)
Fantasia 2000 (’99)
80
Tarzan (’99)
Mulan (’98)
90
Hercules (’97)
85
Hunchback (’96)
Pocahontas (’95)
The Lion King (’94)
Aladdin (’92)
Beauty and the Beast (’91)
The Little Mermaid (’89)
40
Bambi (’42)
n/a
Pinocchio (’40)
n/a
Fantasia (’40)
n/a
Snow White (’37)
Frozen (’13)
Source: Box Office Mojo

8. Revival
era
Disney Renaissance
After Disney Renaissance, most movies have only made
~1-2x production budget
2.9
1.1
2.1 2.5 2.3
0.8 0.9
1.7 1.6
2.7
1.1
19.5
5
25
20
15
0
10
Ratio of box office sales to production budget
Lilo & Stitch (’02)
3.4
Atlantis (’01)
Emperor’s New Groove (’00)
Dinosaur (’00)
Fantasia 2000 (’99)
Tarzan (’99)
Wreck-It Ralph (’12)
Winnie the Pooh (’11)
Tangled (’10)
Bolt (’08)
Home on the Range (’04)
3.4
Mulan (’98)
3.4
Hercules (’97)
3.0
Hunchback (’96)
3.3
Pocahontas (’95)
6.3
The Lion King (’94)
Aladdin (’92)
18.0
Beauty and the Beast (’91)
14.1
The Little Mermaid (’89)
4.6
Treasure Planet (’02)
Princess and the Frog (’09)
Two tragic level
of flops in a
row
Source: Box Office Mojo

9. Better reviewed movies tend to make more money,
but the correlation is weak
500
1000
0
1500
5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5
Wreck-It Ralph
Winnie the Pooh
Tangled
Bolt Princess and the Frog
Meet the Robinsons
Chicken Little
Home on the Range
Brother Bear
Treasure Planet
Lilo & Stitch
IMDB score
Emperor’s New Groove
Dinosaur
Fantasia 2000
Tarzan
Mulan
Atlantis
Hunchback
Pocahontas
The Lion King
Aladdin
Box office sales ($M) – Domestic & Foreign not including re-run – ADJUSTED TO INFLATION (2012 equivalent $)
Hercules
R2 = 34%
Source: IMDB

10. Case study (I): Bambi (1942)
 At its initial release, Bambi seemed to be somewhat of a
failure compared to earlier Disney movies
– Budget of $1.7M
– Box office of $1.64M (Pinocchio 2 years ago made $39M)
 Multiple factors could have gone into receiving poor reviews
– Released during World War II
– Non fairy tale based story (also quite depressing...)
– "Anti-hunting" message
 Bambi grew in popularity over the course of years with
multiple re-runs (roughly every 10 years)
101
62
39
10 19 2 4
0
150
100
50
Cumulative box office sales ($M) – Domestic – not adjusted to inflation
1942 1947 1957 1966 1975 1982 1988
Source: Box Office Mojo; Wikipedia

11. Case study (II): The Lion King (1994)
The Lion King was an international success, grossing $313M in the US and $565M abroad. Re-releases in 2002 and 2011 generated additional ~$110M, making lifetime gross of ~$1B
With its huge success, Disney decided to create a musical spin-off only 3 years later in 1997... this became an instant hit, achieving highest gross as Broadway musical in 1998 ($43M vs. $36M by the 2nd place- The Phantom of the Opera)
By 2013, the musical finally generated lifetime gross of $1B
Source: Box Office Mojo

12. Appendix

13. Revival
era
Disney Renaissance
Appendix: Inflation adjusted views on Box office sales
471
35
623
286
188
225 241
467
617
430
476
825
593
42
640
705
1068
200
1000
800
600
400
1200
1400
1600
0
Pocahontas (’95)
523
The Lion King (’94)
1359
Aladdin (’92)
Beauty and the Beast (’91)
The Little Mermaid (’89)
341
Pinocchio (’40)
Fantasia (’40)
Snow White (’37)
Bambi (’42)
Box office sales ($M) – Domestic & Foreign not including re-run – ADJUSTED TO INFLATION (2012 equivalent $)
Hercules (’97)
362
Hunchback (’96)
Wreck-It Ralph (’12)
Winnie the Pooh (’11)
Tangled (’10)
Princess and the Frog (’09)
Bolt (’08)
331
Meet the Robinsons (’07)
Chicken Little (’05)
369
Home on the Range (’04)
126
Brother Bear (’03)
312
Treasure Planet (’02)
139
Lilo & Stitch (’02)
348
Atlantis (’01)
Emperor’s New Groove (’00)
Dinosaur (’00)
Fantasia 2000 (’99)
125
Tarzan (’99)
Mulan (’98)
Source: Box Office Mojo

14. Disclaimer
This document is provided for general information only and nothing contained in the material constitutes a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. Although the statements of fact in this report are obtained from sources that I consider reliable, I do not guarantee their accuracy and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. Views are subject to change on the basis of additional or new research, new facts or developments.