2014 davos eq_sergey_dimitar

Testing new methodologies for alerting large
earthquakes: An integrated geo space approach
and ground observations
Dimitar OUZOUNOV1, Sergey PULINETS2, Menas KAFATOS1 and LAIC team4
1CEESMO/Chapman University, United States of America
2Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian Federation
3 International Space Research Institute, Bern , Switzerland
0
decade year month week day hour hour week month year decade
Anticipation Time Response Time
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 - Integrative Risk Management –
The role of science, technology & practice‘ 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

Observations Model Validation Results
Long term seismic
Hazard modeling
Earthquakes progress as chain reactions
After Tom Jordan (SCEC, Monterey CA,2011)
day week month
A
0
decade year month week day hour hour year decade
0
Earthquake Early Warnings USGS
(5-55 seconds after the events)
Tsunami Warning( USGS 3-5min after the earthquake)
Post-Earthquake Info for Response and Recovery
?
Operational Forecasting
IDRC- Davos, Aug 26 2014: :Ouzounov – Testing new methodologies for alerting large earthquakes

Observations Model Validation Results
Earthquakes progress as chain reactions
After Tom Jordan (SCEC, Monterey CA,2011)
0
decade year month week day hour hour year decade
Pre Earthquake short -term
0
day week month
Earthquake Early Warnings USGS
(5-55 seconds after the events)
Tsunami Warning( USGS 3-5min after the earthquake)
Post-Earthquake Info for Response and Recovery
Long term seismic
Hazard modeling
A
phenomena
Ionosphere
Thermal satellite
Radon/ion anomalies
GPS/TEC
Operational Forecasting

Outline
1. Geo space approach to study pre-earthquake
phenomena
2. Sensor Web – Joint analysis of Satellite and
ground observation
3. Nature of pre-earthquake effects in atmosphere
4. Retrospective/prospective tests
5. Summary

2013: What have we learned from the 2011 M9 Tohoku Earthquake?
NOAA Thermal Anomaly GPS/TEC Anomaly
Foreshock analysis Air Temperature/Humidity
Ouzounov et al, 2011
Multi – parameter pre-earthquake panel
(-1-3 days)
(-3 days)
(-3 days)
(-1-2 days)
Papadopoulos, 2011

International Collaborative Framework
PRE-earthquake, Italy, 2011
ISSI-Bern, 2014
IWEP, Taiwan, 2013 VESTO, 2009, Japan

Major collaborator on Pre-earthquake Studies
(2007-2014)
2007-2013 under grant agreement No. 263502 – PRE-EARTHQUAKES
project: Processing Russian and
European EARTH observations for earthQUAKE precursors
Studies (P.I.’s Tramutoli, Pulinets)
2013-2015 international term :Multi-instrument Space-
Borne Observations and Validation of the Physical Model
of the Lithosphere- Atmosphere-Ionosphere-
Magnetosphere Coupling(P.I.’s Pulinets & Ouzounov)
2014-2015 Ionospheric Sounding for Identification of
estec Pre-Seismic Activity (P.I.’s Krankowski & Pulinets)

Where we are now
Methodology of the pre-earthquake signals we are investigating
Understanding the connection between key geophysical signatures and seismicity
Satellite Thermal Radiation Anomalies
GPS /Total Electron
Content
Radon/ Gas variations
Sensor Web
Data Integration
Seismo –tectonic pattern
Atm. Temp &
Humidity (AcP)
Ouzounov et al. Evaluation of Pre-earthquake Atmospheric Signals

Sensor Web methodology
Observational concept

Earth thermal radiation anomalies
• OLR refers to the sum total of all the long wave
EM energy infrared radiation that escapes from
the Earth back to space
• measured on the top of the Earth's atmosphere
• at wavelengths ranging from 5 to 100
micrometers.
Global OLR (NASA)
TOA
Pre-earthquake OLR anomaly
Dec 19,, Sumatra 2004
Earth Energy budget

Schematic presentation of the LAIC model
Jet-streams
VLF noises trapping,
cyclotron interaction
Particle precipitation
Earthquake clouds formation within the ionosphere
Ions hydration– formation
of aerosol size particles
Air ionization by -particles –
product of radon decay
Faults activation – permeability changes
Gas discharges including radon
emanation
Air temperature growth
Latent heat release
Humidity drop
Electric field effects
Atmospheric electric
field growth
Air conductivity change
Convective ions uplift, charge
separation, drift in anomalous EF
OLR anomalies
Air pressure drop
Field-aligned irregularities
in magnetosphere
(Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011)

Laboratory proof
More than 5000 J was released

Retrospective/Prospective Testing
Regions of Validation (solid line) and and areas of prospective
testing (dash line)
GENET
PRE-EQ
iSTEP-TAINET
CaNET

Signal detection theory used for retrospective/prospective
testing
Hotspot Detection Map
No detection
Close detection < 1.5R
Detection
Hot spot definition and
Moore neighborhood
Time [Years]
Decision level
Reference field
after Tramutoli (2007)
Earthquakes Likely
Earthquakes Unlikely
After Rundle (2009)
Short- term alert consists:
- Time of alert;
- Location (+/- error);
- Time interval (1-30 days);
- Magnitude (Approx.);
- Confidence (if exists);
- Online post to 2
independent recipients.

Retrospective statistical studies of OLR signals
Japan, Taiwan - 24 major events (2004-2009, M>5.8), SS-73
Kamchatka( Russia ) 14, major events (2006-2008, M>5.8), SS-75
Mexico - 13 major events (2004-2009, M>6), SS-72
Japan Kamchatka (Russia)
Mexico

Prospective testing : Japan
8 major earthquakes, M6+ (Dec 2012-Dec, 2013)
With yellow
are marked the
alerted events
Rconf=200km
(6/8)
Date Time UTC Latitude Longitude Depth Magnitude Region Name
10/25/13 17:10:17 37.22 144.69 10 7.1 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU
9/4/13 0:18:25 30.04 138.8 419 6.5 IZU ISLANDS
5/18/13 5:48:01 37.79 141.51 52 6 NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU
4/21/13 3:22:17 29.96 138.96 435 6.2 IZU ISLANDS
4/1/13 18:53:17 39.58 143.1 10 6 OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU
2/2/13 14:17:34 42.79 143.17 100 6.9 HOKKAIDO

Experimental prospective tests for Japan
Dec 2012-Dec 2013, for M>5.5
Total issued alerts: 75
: Earthquake occurrence: 51(67%),
False alarms(33%)
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3

All forecasts for M7+ are made with some accepted uncertainties : 1-45 day time interval,
location within 2.5x2.5 degree box and M estimate within 1 step base (i.e. 6,5-7.5)

Retrospective Thermal precursor analysis:
Major earthquakes (M>7) in Central and South America
Sept 2012-April 2013
Earthquake Catalog
Prospective Testing
# Date M Region Location Date of
Temporal allocation Spatial allocation
M7.4
21 days
advance
notice
2012 level of thermal signals
forecast
Forecasting
Region
Forecasted
Location
(±1.5°/±1.5°)
Estimated
M
Time lag
(Days)
1. 2012-11-07 7.4 Guatemala 14.1S/91.9W 2012-10-16 Guatemala 16S/90W M6+ -21
2. 2012-09-30 7.2 Colombia 2N/76W 2012-09-14 Colombia 5N/73W M5.5+ -15
3. 2012-09-05 7.6 Costa Rica 10.16N/85.39W 2012-08-19 Costa Rica 10N/85W M6+ -15

Temporal and spatial characteristics for the earthquake alert
before M7.3 Honshu, Japan 2012 (Ouzounov et al, 2013)
Earthquake ALERT
11.22.2012
12.07.2012
-14 days
M7.3 Honshu, Japan
Alert
spatial
allocation
Alert
Temporal
allocation
14 days

M7.3 Honshu, Japan 2012 (Ouzounov et al, 2013)
Year 2012
Detection Level
Earthquake ALERT
11.22.2012
12.07.2012
-14 days
M7.3 Honshu, Japan
Temporal
allocation
14 days

Latest earthquake alerts
M 6.1 (M6.5) - SICHUAN-YUNNAN-GUIZHOU RG, CHINA - 2014-08-03
Date Time Lat /Zone Lon/Zone Confidence Estimated M Estimated Region
EQ alert for the area was
issued on July 26,2014
(-9 days)
FORECAST
2014-07-23 14:00:00 28.50 +/-2 N 104.00E +/-2 N 60% (confidebce) 5.5-6.5 EASTREN SICHUAN
CATALOG: 2014-08-03 08:30:14. 27.26 N 103.50 E 6.5 SICHUAN-YUNNAN

Earthquake
Environmental noise level>20%
M 6.1 (M6.5) -
SICHUAN-YUNNAN-GUIZHOU
RG,
CHINA - 2014-08-
03
Anomalous level>50%
Forecasting level>60 %
July 1- Aug 17, 2014
08.03.2014
M6.5 YUNNAN

California M6 Aug 25,2014
Alert on Aug 3 (-22 days)
Aug 01, 2014 Aug 02, 2014 Aug 03, 2014 Aug 04, 2014
Aug 05, 2014 Aug 06, 2014 Aug 07, 2014 Aug 08, 2014
Aug 09, 2014 Aug 10, 2014 Aug 11, 2014 Aug 12, 2014

Summary
1. By using fundamental principles of geophysical theory and atmospheric physics
we study specific variations in atmosphere and ionosphere which we found
connected with the earthquake preparation process. LAIC concept can explain
some processes driven by atmospheric ionization, related to natural process
(earthquake, volcanoes, sand storms) and environmental radioactive pollution.
2. Retrospective testing - We have systematically analyzed retrospectively the
transient features of thermal radiation field, GPS/TEC, and gas/Ion data
associated with the 40 earthquakes (M>5.9) in Taiwan, Japan and Kamchatka
(2003-2009) We have found anomalous behavior before ALL of the
retrospective events - no false negatives. False positive alarm ratio for thermal
signals is less then 20 %;
3. Prospective testing of Thermal alerts has started! We have start testing
earthquake alerts over several hazards sites for M5.5+ using thermal data from
NOAA and NASA. The lead time for thermal anomalous signals before the
earthquake occurrence varies between 2 and 30 days. Current false positive
alarm ratio depends of the region and magnitude and in average is 35%;
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 - Integrative Risk Management –
The role of science, technology & practice‘ 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

2014 davos eq_sergey_dimitar

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2014 davos eq_sergey_dimitar