Powering Sydney's Future Forum June 2014 - Network Planning - Bruce Howard

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The forum brought together organizations and experts to explore electricity supply options for inner Sydney. Almost 100 representatives from consumer groups, government, regulators, and energy providers attended. Speakers from TransGrid and Ausgrid discussed joint planning processes and demand scenarios. Installing a single large 330kV cable was presented as a more cost effective option compared to multiple smaller replacements, providing capacity while reducing community and environmental impacts. Non-network strategies and demand management could help maintain reliability and manage risks from aging infrastructure, though opportunities for further alternatives were discussed. Attendees provided feedback on network planning questions.

Engineering Business Technology

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 1
Thursday, 19 June 2014
Forum – 19 June 2014

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 2
Thursday, 19 June 2014
Forum Summary
The form held on the 19 June, brought together a range of organisations and experts to explore
electricity supply in inner Sydney and consider some possible initiatives as part of developing a
solution.
Almost 100 representatives and experts gathered to hear speakers from TransGrid and Ausgrid as
well as experts from CSIRO and City of Sydney.
There were representatives from consumer advocacy groups, academics, government
representatives, regulators, large energy users, infrastructure organisations and energy providers.
Among the delegates there was a concerted call for an overhaul of regulatory framework to provide
incentives to electricity networks, for non-network alternatives.

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 3
Thursday, 19 June 2014
Bruce Howard
Customer Planning Manager, TransGrid

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 4
Thursday, 19 June 2014
Joint planning process
TransGridAusgrid
Project
implementation
Project
implementation
Joint Planning Committee
Least community cost solution

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 5
Thursday, 19 June 2014
Demand considerations
Barangaroo

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 6
Thursday, 19 June 2014
0
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MW
Different demand scenarios

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 7
Thursday, 19 June 2014
Cable installation lead time
Construction
3 yearsDesign
1 YearApprovals
3 years
Construction commitment
Planning
Environmental impact
statement
Property
Regulatory approvals
Detailed design
Cable manufacture
Cable installation
approx 7 years

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 8
Thursday, 19 June 2014
demand range
0
500
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2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
MW
Starting point

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 9
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demand range
0
500
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2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
MW
Scenario A:
Just-in-time replacement

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 10
Thursday, 19 June 2014
demand range
0
500
1000
1500
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2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
MW
Scenario B:
Install one 330 kV cable

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 11
Thursday, 19 June 2014
One large cable vs
multiple smaller replacements
Multiple replacements

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 12
Thursday, 19 June 2014
One large cable vs
multiple smaller replacements
Single large cable
Multiple replacements

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 13
Thursday, 19 June 2014
One large cable vs
multiple smaller replacements
• Fewer kilometres of
construction, lower associated
community and environmental
impact
• Lower cost for similar capacity
(about 40% cheaper)
• Provides capacity to allow for
managing issues with existing
TransGrid cables
Single large cable

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 14
Thursday, 19 June 2014
demand range
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
MWScenario B:
- with Demand Management

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 15
Thursday, 19 June 2014
demand range
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
MW
Scenario C:
More non-network strategies
Opportunity to explore
further alternatives?

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 16
Thursday, 19 June 2014
Opportunities to
explore non-network strategies
to maintain supply reliability
and manage risks of ageing network??

Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 17
Thursday, 19 June 2014
Network planning
Questions &
Feedback

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1. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 1 Thursday, 19 June 2014 Forum – 19 June 2014

2. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 2 Thursday, 19 June 2014 Forum Summary The form held on the 19 June, brought together a range of organisations and experts to explore electricity supply in inner Sydney and consider some possible initiatives as part of developing a solution. Almost 100 representatives and experts gathered to hear speakers from TransGrid and Ausgrid as well as experts from CSIRO and City of Sydney. There were representatives from consumer advocacy groups, academics, government representatives, regulators, large energy users, infrastructure organisations and energy providers. Among the delegates there was a concerted call for an overhaul of regulatory framework to provide incentives to electricity networks, for non-network alternatives.

3. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 3 Thursday, 19 June 2014 Bruce Howard Customer Planning Manager, TransGrid

4. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 4 Thursday, 19 June 2014 Joint planning process TransGridAusgrid Project implementation Project implementation Joint Planning Committee Least community cost solution

5. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 5 Thursday, 19 June 2014 Demand considerations Barangaroo

6. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 6 Thursday, 19 June 2014 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 MW Different demand scenarios

7. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 7 Thursday, 19 June 2014 Cable installation lead time Construction 3 yearsDesign 1 YearApprovals 3 years Construction commitment Planning Environmental impact statement Property Regulatory approvals Detailed design Cable manufacture Cable installation approx 7 years

8. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 8 Thursday, 19 June 2014 demand range 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 MW Starting point

9. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 9 Thursday, 19 June 2014 demand range 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 MW Scenario A: Just-in-time replacement

10. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 10 Thursday, 19 June 2014 demand range 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 MW Scenario B: Install one 330 kV cable

11. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 11 Thursday, 19 June 2014 One large cable vs multiple smaller replacements Multiple replacements

12. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 12 Thursday, 19 June 2014 One large cable vs multiple smaller replacements Single large cable Multiple replacements

13. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 13 Thursday, 19 June 2014 One large cable vs multiple smaller replacements • Fewer kilometres of construction, lower associated community and environmental impact • Lower cost for similar capacity (about 40% cheaper) • Provides capacity to allow for managing issues with existing TransGrid cables Single large cable

14. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 14 Thursday, 19 June 2014 demand range 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 MWScenario B: - with Demand Management

15. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 15 Thursday, 19 June 2014 demand range 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 MW Scenario C: More non-network strategies Opportunity to explore further alternatives?

16. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 16 Thursday, 19 June 2014 Opportunities to explore non-network strategies to maintain supply reliability and manage risks of ageing network??

17. Planning Inner Sydney’s Electricity Future Forum 17 Thursday, 19 June 2014 Network planning Questions & Feedback

Editor's Notes

Greg Garvin - Very brief welcome and intro to forum -We want to share a clear understanding of the issues facing the electricity supply for inner Sydney. We also want people to have an opportunity to provide input as we consider a range of initiatives to meet the area’s future electricity needs. - Comment on Sun Herald news article about forum. Some inaccuracies which will hopefully be clarified throughout this forum.
The representatives from both Ausgrid and TransGrid work as a Joint Planning Committee to identify requirements and develop options for ensuring a reliable supply to the Ausgrid supply area – especially the Inner Sydney area. The JPC looks for solutions with the Least Community Cost in terms of cost, environmental impact and inconvenience to the community during construction. Decisions are not influenced by considerations of which organisation will be responsible for implementing the recommendations.
-A number of considerations are made when making predictions about future electricity demand. -KPMG has prepared a report for us on the demographic outlook for the inner Sydney area (which is available on the project webpage). Overall, the rate of population growth in the inner Sydney area is projected to remain well above the NSW average. There are also a number of major infrastructure projects underway (e.g. Barangaroo, Green Square, Central Station to Eveleigh Railway Renewal) in addition to other infrastructure projects announced by the NSW Government. A report on electric vehicles was also prepared by the University of Sydney to better understand the potential they could have on electricity demand and supply. The report is also available on the project website.
For planning purposes we have considered a range of demand scenarios. The range has been developed in consideration of forecasts by AEMO, Ausgrid and TransGrid.
It takes many years to install a high voltage cable. A lot of work can be done prior to the final commitment – and this is the work we are presently undertaking. However, the commitment to proceed has to be made in anticipation of the conditions which will exist in around 3 years. The decision to commit to the project will be left as long as possible to avoid incurring the cost too early but contingency plans – such as demand management – will need to be implemented if the load growth is higher than expected.

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