The document discusses motivation for recent work on climate change goals and targets. It argues that the extremely difficult goal of limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius by mid-century will likely not be achieved and that discussion should begin on an alternative, relatively less difficult interim goal that still requires major commitments. It presents the concept of "stabilization wedges" - strategies that each reduce emissions by 1 billion tons of carbon per year by 2050 - as a way to fill the gap to an interim emissions target. Overall the document aims to restart discussion on climate action by acknowledging uncertainties, problems with solutions, and making goals and targets iterative as understanding improves over time.
Michael P Totten presentation Sustainability Opportunities Summit, Denver, Ma...Michael P Totten
Michael P Totten presentation at the 2009 Sustainability Opportunities Summit in Denver. Discusses linkages between rainforest loss, species loss, and positive solutions for preventing greenhouse gas emissions while helping alleviate poverty and preventing biodiversity destruction.
Climate for Life Presentation California Academy of SciencesMichael P Totten
Michael P Totten, Conservation International, presentation at the California Academy of Sciences on February 3, 2009, on the new book, A Climate for Life. Presents wide range of positive mitigation options for address threat of climate catastrophe, species extinction, and mass poverty. Roughly 50 slides, 6 Mb pdf file.
Scientific Facts on CO2 Capture and StorageGreenFacts
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a major greenhouse gas that contributes to Earth’s global warming. Over the past two centuries, its concentration in the atmosphere has greatly increased, mainly because of human activities such as fossil fuel burning.
One possible option for reducing CO2 emissions is to store it underground. This technique is called Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS).
How does it work? Could it really help addressing climate change?
Michael P Totten presentation Sustainability Opportunities Summit, Denver, Ma...Michael P Totten
Michael P Totten presentation at the 2009 Sustainability Opportunities Summit in Denver. Discusses linkages between rainforest loss, species loss, and positive solutions for preventing greenhouse gas emissions while helping alleviate poverty and preventing biodiversity destruction.
Climate for Life Presentation California Academy of SciencesMichael P Totten
Michael P Totten, Conservation International, presentation at the California Academy of Sciences on February 3, 2009, on the new book, A Climate for Life. Presents wide range of positive mitigation options for address threat of climate catastrophe, species extinction, and mass poverty. Roughly 50 slides, 6 Mb pdf file.
Scientific Facts on CO2 Capture and StorageGreenFacts
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a major greenhouse gas that contributes to Earth’s global warming. Over the past two centuries, its concentration in the atmosphere has greatly increased, mainly because of human activities such as fossil fuel burning.
One possible option for reducing CO2 emissions is to store it underground. This technique is called Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS).
How does it work? Could it really help addressing climate change?
Megan gave a fascinating talk showcasing her work on network analysis of virtual water trade. We discussed water and food security in the context of population growth, economic development and climate change.
My presentation at the "Third Annual Conference of the Transatlantic University Collaboration for Climate and Energy Law" on 28 April 2021 in Oslo https://www.jus.uio.no/nifs/english/research/events/2021/04-28-tucccel.html
Megan gave a fascinating talk showcasing her work on network analysis of virtual water trade. We discussed water and food security in the context of population growth, economic development and climate change.
My presentation at the "Third Annual Conference of the Transatlantic University Collaboration for Climate and Energy Law" on 28 April 2021 in Oslo https://www.jus.uio.no/nifs/english/research/events/2021/04-28-tucccel.html
Pathways to a Low Carbon Future – How we get there is (VERY) ImportantClimateAtSwimSure
What does climate mitigation really mean for the world, or for the EU and Ireland? Climate change policy and media discussions are plagued by basic misunderstandings resulting in poor policy and ongoing confusion. This short presentation aims to clarify the surprisingly simple (if stark) implications of climate science and sustainable development for our part in a “global transition to a low-carbon future”. If we are serious about sustainability then continuing to delay substantial and sustained climate action is a very bad idea.
Emission scenarios and the need for Carbon Dioxide RemovalGlen Peters
A presentation I gave to a conference on "the way to climate neutrality" hosted by the Danish Ministry for Energy, Utilities, and Climate (13 November, 2018)
Econ2216 (2013) Assignment #2 MAC MD Framework Ruth For.docxjack60216
Econ2216 (2013): Assignment #2
MAC MD Framework
Ruth Forsdyke
Due: Wed. Feb. 20th in class.
For algebraic questions, please show all work and use short sentences to guide reader through your
work. Please use graph paper provided for Problem 2.
Problem 1: Dire Predictions (use DP to answer questions/ please be brief)
a) About 12,000 ago, at the end of the warming period after the large ice age, evidence from
paleoclimate studies suggests that a large pool of melted ice from the great Laurentide Ice Sheet (that
covered much of North America) was suddenly released into the North Atlantic. This made the
water less salty so that it did not sink as fast causing a slow down of the North Atlantic Ocean
current conveyer belt which pumps water via the Gulf Stream Current from the equator to Greenland
and back. This caused Northern Europe to temporarily returned to glacial climate conditions. Do
scientists think that melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will have a similar effect? (pg. 60 to 61 DP)
b) What do climate models suggest will happen to the intensity of tropical cyclones and hurricanes
due to climate change? What about the frequency? (Pg. 56 – 57).
c) How many people died due to an unprecedented heatwave in Europe in 2003? Multiply by the
value of a statistical life ($2.5 million) to get an estimate of the damages due to the heatwave. Can
we with certainly attribute these damages to global warming? Why or why not? Are these damages
consistent with predictions of climate models? Hint: consider smoking example in course outline
description. (pg. 52 – 54).1
d) Globally, based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index, what has happened to the number of
regions experiencing more intense droughts since the end of the 1980s? List some damages due to
droughts.
e) How do scientists explain the shrinking of the glaciers on Mount Kilimanjaro? (pg. 59)
f) Temperatures eventually come into equilibrium for a given concentration of greenhouse gases.
The temperature rise that occurs for a doubling of carbon dioxide to 560 ppms from the 280 ppm is
referred to as climate sensitivity. When was the CO2 concentration expected to double based on DP
1 Note: Other damages included crop loss.
which is based on UN IPPC FAR (2007)? When if the full effect on warming due to this doubling
expected to be experienced? What is the range of estimated climate sensitities? (pg.
g) Scientists have developed future scenarios, which include parameters affecting Kaya equation
variables. They include changes in income inequality, the rate of industrialization in low income
countries, technological growth rates, population growth, the degree to which people adopt “post-
materialist attitudes” and how quickly we reduce the “material intensity of consumption” to service
based economies, and lastly, the degree to which we globally cooperate on climate change
abatement. Four repr ...
An easily traceable scenario for GHG 80% reduction in Japan for local energy ...Masayuki Horio
To develop a scenario sure and easily traceable even for ordinary citizens toward the national challenge target of 80% CO2 reduction by 2050, we first developed a model to calculate the total CO2 emission corresponding to the final consumption and second developed an appropriate technology based scenario consisting of the following consumer oriented sub-scenarios: (1) energy saving through electrification of all transportation, (2) promotion of wood utilization for housing and household energy saving; (3) introduction of renewable energies; and (4) efficient energy utilization of wastes. Applying the scenario to Kyoto that has the similar strategies to our proposed scenarios, we found that about 80% CO2 emission reduction is possible just within the appropriate technology limit with the effect of population reduction and with the potential emission reduction from construction of private and public infrastructures, and that shifting our final consumption mode into low CO2 emission mode has a significant impact.
Keywords: CO2 emission reduction, appropriate technologies, local energy strategy, the final consumption
Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09Michael P Totten
Presentation on January 22, 2009, by Michael P Totten, Chief Advisor on Climate and Water at Conservation International, given tot the Los Angeles chapter of Bioneers. Interdisciplinary perspectives on solutions to climate catastrophe threat, species extinction threat, mass poverty, water shortages, oil and resource wars, using the Web tools for generating collective intelligence and social collaboration. Very positive outlook on seemingly intractable and irreversible perils confronting humanity this century. 13 Mb file. No voice over, but one with voice is forthcoming.
Totten Climate For Life Presentation 02 13 09 Duke Symposium Final UpdateMichael P Totten
"A Climate for Life" presentation by Michael P Totten, Chief Advisor, Climate, Freshwater and Ecosystem Services, Conservation International, on Feb. 13, 2009, at the "A World in Conflict: Tacking Issues of Water, Energy and Biodiversity in the Developing World," held at Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment, Student International Discussion Group. Presentation makes case for viewing and treating these compartmentalized issues (climate, energy, water, biodiversity, poverty) from an inter-disciplinary, integrated perspective in order to avoid lost opportunities and capture synergistic, leveraging opportunities.
El Premio Nobel de Física Carlo Rubbia ha estado exponiendo en el último tiempo sobre los desafíos de encontrar fuentes menos contaminantes y más abundantes de energía. En este presentación realizada en Chile a fines de 2008 Rubbia compara las distintas opciones disponibles, enfatizando especialmente la importancia de la energía solar.
Tuve acceso a su presentación y la comparto aquí porque me pareció de gran interés público.
A one day symposium on zero/low carbon sustainable homes took place at The University of Nottingham on the 24th October, 2012. The event offered professionals within the construction industry a unique opportunity to gain added and significant insight into the innovations, policies and legislation which are driving the construction of zero/low carbon energy efficient homes both here in the UK and elsewhere in Europe. It explored solutions to sustainability issues “beyond” the zero carbon agenda. BZCH followed on from the successful ‘Towards Zero Carbon Housing’ symposium the University hosted in 2007. This event is part of the Europe Wide Ten Act10n project which is supported by the European Commission Intelligent Energy Europe.
The Coupled Climate-Energy System: Limiting Global Climatic Disruption by Rev...Larry Smarr
10.07.23
Invited Seminar
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Title: The Coupled Climate-Energy System: Limiting Global Climatic Disruption by Revolutionary Change in the Global Energy System
Boulder, CO
Similar to 11 12 01 princeton pecs wedges reaffirmed (20)
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17Celine George
It is possible to hide or invisible some fields in odoo. Commonly using “invisible” attribute in the field definition to invisible the fields. This slide will show how to make a field invisible in odoo 17.
Macroeconomics- Movie Location
This will be used as part of your Personal Professional Portfolio once graded.
Objective:
Prepare a presentation or a paper using research, basic comparative analysis, data organization and application of economic information. You will make an informed assessment of an economic climate outside of the United States to accomplish an entertainment industry objective.
Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
Operation “Blue Star” is the only event in the history of Independent India where the state went into war with its own people. Even after about 40 years it is not clear if it was culmination of states anger over people of the region, a political game of power or start of dictatorial chapter in the democratic setup.
The people of Punjab felt alienated from main stream due to denial of their just demands during a long democratic struggle since independence. As it happen all over the word, it led to militant struggle with great loss of lives of military, police and civilian personnel. Killing of Indira Gandhi and massacre of innocent Sikhs in Delhi and other India cities was also associated with this movement.
Instructions for Submissions thorugh G- Classroom.pptxJheel Barad
This presentation provides a briefing on how to upload submissions and documents in Google Classroom. It was prepared as part of an orientation for new Sainik School in-service teacher trainees. As a training officer, my goal is to ensure that you are comfortable and proficient with this essential tool for managing assignments and fostering student engagement.
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...Levi Shapiro
Letter from the Congress of the United States regarding Anti-Semitism sent June 3rd to MIT President Sally Kornbluth, MIT Corp Chair, Mark Gorenberg
Dear Dr. Kornbluth and Mr. Gorenberg,
The US House of Representatives is deeply concerned by ongoing and pervasive acts of antisemitic
harassment and intimidation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Failing to act decisively to ensure a safe learning environment for all students would be a grave dereliction of your responsibilities as President of MIT and Chair of the MIT Corporation.
This Congress will not stand idly by and allow an environment hostile to Jewish students to persist. The House believes that your institution is in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, and the inability or
unwillingness to rectify this violation through action requires accountability.
Postsecondary education is a unique opportunity for students to learn and have their ideas and beliefs challenged. However, universities receiving hundreds of millions of federal funds annually have denied
students that opportunity and have been hijacked to become venues for the promotion of terrorism, antisemitic harassment and intimidation, unlawful encampments, and in some cases, assaults and riots.
The House of Representatives will not countenance the use of federal funds to indoctrinate students into hateful, antisemitic, anti-American supporters of terrorism. Investigations into campus antisemitism by the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Ways and Means have been expanded into a Congress-wide probe across all relevant jurisdictions to address this national crisis. The undersigned Committees will conduct oversight into the use of federal funds at MIT and its learning environment under authorities granted to each Committee.
• The Committee on Education and the Workforce has been investigating your institution since December 7, 2023. The Committee has broad jurisdiction over postsecondary education, including its compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, campus safety concerns over disruptions to the learning environment, and the awarding of federal student aid under the Higher Education Act.
• The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating the sources of funding and other support flowing to groups espousing pro-Hamas propaganda and engaged in antisemitic harassment and intimidation of students. The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is the principal oversight committee of the US House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X.
• The Committee on Ways and Means has been investigating several universities since November 15, 2023, when the Committee held a hearing entitled From Ivory Towers to Dark Corners: Investigating the Nexus Between Antisemitism, Tax-Exempt Universities, and Terror Financing. The Committee followed the hearing with letters to those institutions on January 10, 202
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptxPavel ( NSTU)
Synthetic fiber production is a fascinating and complex field that blends chemistry, engineering, and environmental science. By understanding these aspects, students can gain a comprehensive view of synthetic fiber production, its impact on society and the environment, and the potential for future innovations. Synthetic fibers play a crucial role in modern society, impacting various aspects of daily life, industry, and the environment. ynthetic fibers are integral to modern life, offering a range of benefits from cost-effectiveness and versatility to innovative applications and performance characteristics. While they pose environmental challenges, ongoing research and development aim to create more sustainable and eco-friendly alternatives. Understanding the importance of synthetic fibers helps in appreciating their role in the economy, industry, and daily life, while also emphasizing the need for sustainable practices and innovation.
Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdfThiyagu K
This slides describes the basic concepts of ICT, basics of Email, Emerging Technology and Digital Initiatives in Education. This presentations aligns with the UGC Paper I syllabus.
1. Wedges Reaffirmed
Robert Socolow
socolow@princeton.edu
Princeton Energy and Climate Scholars
Princeton University
December 1, 2011
2. Motivation for my recent work
We will greatly increase the damage from climate change
if we postpone action for decades.
We might well postpone action as a response to becoming
disheartened.
We could become disheartened as a result of discovering
that we will not achieve the currently discussed, extremely
difficult goal – the only one that is widely espoused.
3. Motivation for my recent work
The extremely difficult goal espoused by many the world’s
diplomats and the environmentalists is “two degrees.” To
achieve “two degrees,” the fossil fuel system must be shut
down by mid-century.
There is no appetite for discussion of any goal that is less
stringent. Yet a consensus could develop—possibly quite
soon—that “two degrees” will not be attained.
It would be desirable to prepare now to discuss some
relatively less difficult goal that nonetheless requires,
starting immediately, major national commitments and
international coordination, and that could be attained.
5. Historical Emissions
Billions of tons of CO2
60
emitted per year
30 Historical
emissions
6
0
1950 2000 2050 2100
6. The Stabilization Triangle
Billions of tons of CO2
60
emitted per year
Stabilization
Triangle Interim Goal
30 Historical
emissions Flat path
6
0
1950 2000 2050 2100
Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 4 tCO2/yr.
7. Per-capita fossil-fuel CO2 emissions, 2005
World emissions: 27 billion tons CO2
AVERAGE
STABILIZATION
1-
Source: IEA WEO 2007
8. The Stabilization Triangle
Billions of tons of CO2 Easier CO2 target
60
emitted per year ~850 ppm
Stabilization
Triangle Interim Goal
30 Historical
emissions Flat path
2.5oC
6
0
1950 2000 2050 2100
9. Alternative versions of targets
Em: Emission rate at some future time (tCO2/yr)
Conc: Maximum allowed concentration (tCO2) – often ppm.
CumEm: Cumulative emissions (“budget”) for an interval (tCO2)
Temp: Maximum allowed average surface temperature increase
relative to pre-industrial times (oC)
Conc
Em Temp
CumEm
10. Relationships among global targets
Conc
(2) (3)
Em Temp
(1) (4)
CumEm
(1): dCumEm/dt = Em
(2): dConc/dt = λ*Em, λ ≈ 0.5 (“Half Stays In”)
(3): Temp = CS*ln(Conc/Conco)/ln2,
where Conco = pre-industrial concentration ≈ 2200 GtCO2
and CS = climate sensitivity
(central value of CS is 3.0oC; 66% interval: 2.0oC < CS < 4.5oC)
(4): Temp = K*CumEm∞,
where CumEm∞ extends from pre-industrial time to infinity
and, in units of oC/1000GtCO2, the central value of K is 0.48: 90%
interval: 0.27 < K < 0.68. In short, 2000 GtCO2 ≈ 1oC.
11. The 2oC Variant is still tougher
Billions of tons of CO2 Easier CO2 target
60
emitted per year ~850 ppm
Stabilization
Triangle Interim Goal
30 Historical
emissions Flat path
2.5oC
Tougher
6
interim goal 2oC
0
1950 2000 2050 2100
12. “Flat” vs. “down 50%” is about the
developing world’s emissions
X
Up 60% or down 60% Up 140% or up 60%, or down 40%
Analysis of low-carbon industrialization has been far too casual for me
to be comfortable endorsing the lower fifty-year target at this time.
Source of Figure: Socolow and Pacala, “A plan to keep carbon in check,” Scientific American, Sept 2006.
13. The developing world will decide what
kind of planet we live on.
For a while longer, the industrialized
countries will lead.
14. Stabilization Wedges
Billions of tons of CO2
60 16 GtC/y
emitted per year
Eight “wedges”
Interim Goal
30 Historical
emissions Flat path
6
0
1950 2000 2050 2100
15. What is a “Wedge”?
A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows
in 50 years from zero to 4 GtCO2/yr. The strategy has already
been commercialized at scale somewhere.
4 GtCO2/yr
Total = 100 Gigatons CO2
50 years
Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 100 GtCO2 in its first 50
years. This is six trillion dollars at $60/tCO2.
A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.
16. Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Eight Wedges
in six broad categories
Energy Efficiency
Smaller Decarbonized
Families 60 GtCO2/yr Electricity
Stabilization
Methane Triangle Decarbonized
Management Fuels
30 GtCO2/yr
2008 2058
Extra Carbon in Forests, Soils,
Oceans
17. The Virtual Triangle: Large Carbon Savings Are
Already in the Baseline
120 Emissions proportional to
economic growth
90
GtCO2/yr
Virtual
60 Triangle
Historical Stabilization Triangle
30 emissions Flat path
8
0 1957 2007 2057
Models differ widely in their estimates of contributions to the virtual triangle from structural
shifts (toward services), energy efficiency, and carbon-free energy.
18. Legacy: U.S. Power Plants
Source: Benchmarking Air Emissions, April 2006. The report was
co-sponsored by CERES, NRDC and PSEG.
19. U.S. power plant capacity, by vintage
80000 Capacity, total by source
70000
Other
Renewables
60000
Water
50000 Nuclear Issues:
Grandfathering, retirement, relicensing,
megawatt
Gas
40000 Oil retrofit, repowering
Coal
30000
20000
10000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year of initial operation
Source: EIA. Joseph.Beamon@eia.doe.gov
20. U.S. CO2 pipeline infrastructure
Denbury proposes to
send Ohio Valley CO2 to
the Gulf states.
Source: "Reducing CO2 Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Plants," John Wheeldon, EPRI, presented at the CCTR Advisory Panel Meeting,
Vincennes University, Vincennes IN, September 10, 2009. Reproduced in Science Applications International Corporation, Indiana and
Coal: Keeping Indiana Energy Cost Competitive, June 2010, Fig. 2-15, submitted to Indiana Center for Coal Technology Research
21. China Appliance Standards
Business as Usual: CO2 emissions from air
conditioners in 2020 are 9x those in 2000.
New Air Conditioner Standard: Down 25% (45
MtCO2/yr) in 2020.
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
50 million new, efficient air conditioners per year in 2020
Analysis of low-carbon industrialization has been far too casual. There’s work to do.
22. The UN’s “low”population projection has almost 10 billion
fewer people in 2100 than its “high” projection.
Billion
people
High:15.8, 2.6 kids/Mom
Medium:10.1, 2.1 kids/Mom
Peak at ≈ Low: 6.2, 1.6 kids/Mom
2050 dPop/dt falls to -0.8%/yr in 2100.
If sustained, 2.8 billion in 2200.
Source: United Nations. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm
23. UN Population Projections (2 of 2)
-0.8%/yr in 2100.
If sustained,
2.8 billion in 2200.
Source: United Nations. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm
24. We have lost precious time.
Annual Rate of Emissions of CO2 Globally
Year GtC/yr x
2008 8749
2007 8543 x
2006 8350
2005 8086
2004 7782
2003 7397
2002 6981
2001 6916
Source (accessed 10/1/11): http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html.
25. “Wedges reaffirmed,”
a short essay released on Sept 27, 2011
The essay was accompanied by
comments from:
Carter Bales
Ralph Cicerone
Freeman Dyson
Christopher Field
Robert Fri
David Hawkins
Rush Holt
Robert May
Phil Sharp
Nicholas Stern
New trajectory: 550 ppm, 3oC
Released at www.thebulletin.org and www.climatecentral.org.
Comments at www.dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com.
26. What’s in the way of action?
Important factors have been beyond the control of the
environmental community:
•The recent recession
•The political influence of the fossil fuel industries and the
beneficiaries of low-cost power (e.g., the coal-power states)
•Economic development imperatives in countries
undergoing industrialization.
However, advocates for prompt action, of whom I am one, also
bear responsibility for the poor quality of the discussion and the
lack of momentum.
27. Ways to restart the conversation
Advocates for prompt action could and should have
acknowledged that:
•The news is unwelcome
•The science is incomplete
•“Solutions” can bring serious problems of their own.
Might these three domains of political discourse be seedbeds
for the restarting of serious discussion and ensuing action?
28. The news is unwelcome.
Never in history has the work of so few led to so much
being asked of so many!
The “few” are today’s climate science researchers.
The “many” are the rest of us.
We are asked to reduce our emissions promptly and
substantially.
29. Greenland: 7 meters.
West Antarctica : 5 meters
1 meter 2 meters
4 meters 8 meters
A falling sea level would also be disruptive!
Source: T. Knutson, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA. See:
http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/climate_dynamics/climate_impact_webpage.html#section4
30. “Shooting the messenger”? No surprise.
The messenger has been shot before.
Galileo argued that the earth wasn’t at the center of the
universe and was excommunicated.
Darwin argued that human beings were part of the animal
kingdom and was cruelly mocked.
The idea that humans can’t change our planet is as out-of-
date and wrong as the earth-centered universe and the
separate creation of Man.
But all three ideas have such appeal that they will fade away
only very slowly.
31. The science is incomplete
1.Neither slow nor rapid arrival of severe
climate change can be ruled out, given our
poor understanding of feedbacks.
2.The probability of very bad outcomes is
poorly known.
3.Breakthroughs are not imminent. We are
not only flying blind, but the fog is not
about to lift.
31
32. Uncertainty across climate models
Projected Percent
Changes in Annual
Runoff, 2041-60 vs.
1901-70
Hatched areas indicate greater confidence due to strong agreement among model
projections. White areas indicate divergence among model projections. A middle-
of-the-road emissions scenario is assumed.
Source: globalchange.gov/usimpacts
33. Uncertain emissions
Thirty year changes for
Massachusetts:
2010-2039:
Done!
2040-2069:
Princeton vs. Washington
2070-2099:
Baltimore vs. Augusta
This graph probably shows how
winters could feel too (to be verified).
Figure from James McCarthy, Harvard NECIA, 2007 (see: www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
34. Which uncertainty is more important?
Source: globalchange.gov/usimpacts
The Committee on America’s Climate Choices
struggled with the relative importance of
uncertain climate science and uncertain Source: NECIA, 2007 (see:
www.climatechoices.org/ne/)
human behavior. Figure from
James McCarthy, Harvard
35. “Solutions” can bring serious
problems of their own.
Every “solution” has a dark side.
Conservation Regimentation
Renewables Competing uses of land
“Clean coal” Mining: worker and land impacts
Nuclear power Nuclear war
Geoengineering Technological hegemony
Risk management: In choosing targets, we must take into account
both the risks of disruption from climate change and the risks of
disruption from mitigation.
36. Iterative risk management
“I will apply, for the benefit of the
sick, all measures that are
required, avoiding those twin traps
of overtreatment and therapeutic
nihilism.”
Hippocrates
* Modern version of the Hippocratic oath, Louis Lasagna, 1964,
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/doctors/oath_modern.html
37. Iterative risk management: the basis
for a renewed commitment
In another decade we'll know a lot more about the earth, both
because of new climate science and because of what the earth
tells us about itself. Right now: measure, model, and think.
We’ll also know more about the solutions themselves, thanks
to both R&D and field experience. Right now: develop options.
Right now: agree to make decisions iteratively.
Specifically, we can wait at least a decade before deciding whether 1)
flat emissions for 50 years is as heroic an outcome as we can achieve
safely and equitably, or 2) whether we can achieve still more.
38. Grounds for optimism
1. The world today has a terribly inefficient
energy system.
2. Carbon emissions have just begun to be
priced.
3. Most of the 2061 physical plant is not yet
built.
4. Many smart and committed young people
now find energy problems exciting.
40. Surrogate Goals (1 of 3)
Definition of a surrogate goal
A person who holds Goal A strongly and Goal B weakly, but
believes that achieving Goal B will also achieve Goal A, can
pursue Goal B as a surrogate for Goal A.
Usually, Goal A will be revealed only in special
circumstances. Recognizing that a multiplicity of surrogate
goals is at play has considerable explanatory power.
41. Surrogate Goals (2 of 3)
Surrogate goals and climate change
In the formulation of policy to deal with climate change, the
general objective of slowing the rate of climate change is
often a surrogate for more strongly held goals, such as:
•Augmenting financial transfers to developing countries
•Bringing the fossil fuel era to a close
•Curtailing consumerism and human centeredness
•Promoting self-sufficiency, autonomous communities
•Diminishing the power of technological elites
•Promoting environmental science
•Encouraging entrepreneurship
42. Surrogate Goals (3 of 3)
A problem arises when an action in support of the
surrogate goal negates the person’s more strongly
held goal.
Capturing and storing CO2 prolongs the fossil fuel
era.
Large and distant solar arrays and windfarms do
not promote local self-reliance.
43. Safe is not fair, and fair is not safe
Define “fairness” as equal access to the
atmosphere for all nations measured by
cumulative per capita emissions over some
time interval.
For a stringent target, fairness in this sense is
not achievable.
Thus, fairness must be redefined: equal
opportunity to develop, while benefiting from
options not available in the past.
44. Beyond per capita
We can’t solve the climate problem
without moving beyond “per capita” –
looking inside countries.
What if “common but differentiated
responsibilities” refers to individuals
instead of nations?
“One-billion high emitters,” PNAS, 2009. Co-authors: Shoibal Chakravarty, Ananth
Chikkatur, Heleen de Coninck, Steve Pacala, Massimo Tavoni.
45. One billion “high-emitters”
USA other OECD China other nonOECD
2003
>10
2030
In
2030, more than
0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%
2003 half of these
2-10 “high-emitters”
2030
will live outside
2003 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
the OECD.
<2
2030
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
46. Population distribution across 4 regions
The poor need not be denied fossil fuels
USA other OECD China other nonOECD
2003
>10
2030
0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%
2003
A floor at 2 tCO2/yr
2-10
2030
in 2030 and raises
projected 2030
2003 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 global emissions by
only 13%.
<2
2030
The lower half of the
world’s emitters
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Global distribution of individual emissions. Units: tC02/year
47. NJ CO2 emissions goals
Not included: CO2
emissions from 28%
imported power
Source: A Blueprint for Action:
Policy Options to Reduce New
Jersey’s Contribution to Global
Warming, Environment New Jersey
Research and Policy
Center, September 2006.
Total: 120 MtCO2/yr = 2% of U.S., 0.5% of world
Per capita: (120 MtCO2/yr)/8.7 M people = 13.8 tCO2/yr, 2/3 of U.S., 3x world.
48. Princeton’s CO2 emissions goal
7,100 students
5,400 employees
Per capita emissions:
9 tonsm CO2 per year
Included: On-campus and external energy for cogeneration plant, fuel for vehicle
fleet, but not travel to campus. Note: Princeton expects to add almost 2 million
square feet of building space in the next 10 years.
49. Uncertain future surface temperatures
Box plots of probability distributions elicited from 14 “experts”: global mean surface air temperature
change (ΔT) relative to 2000, for four points shown in the inset.
51. One billion “high-emitters”
USA other OECD China other nonOECD
2003
>10
2030
In
2030, over half of
the “high-
0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%
2003
2-10 emitters” will
Units: Estimated
emissions of
2030
live outside the
individuals in
2030, in tons 2003 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 OECD.
CO2/year
<2
2030
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
52. What should we be doing?
Right away:
Phase out the obsolete.
Build well, at all spatial scales.
Via R&D, improve what we can already do.
Move beyond “per capita” to focus on all “high emitters.”
Steadily, for a long time:
Seek new options (but don’t bet the store on finding them).
Encourage transitions that reduced cumulative impact
(including a falling global population).
Build resilience (“adaptation capacity”).
53. Four “study questions”
1. What is a goal? “Targets and timetables” are the currency of
negotiations. A goal can be “aspirational” or can have the force of law.
2. I assume the electorate actually matters, not just interest groups. Have I
been naïve and demonstrated “what the wonk does worst”?
3. How should income inequality be accounted for in international
agreements? Climate change itself menaces the poor, who are least able
to adapt. Climate change mitigation exacerbates poverty if it results in
higher costs for meeting basic needs.
4. How much should one count on breakthroughs? The sufficiency of
current tools vs. putting one’s faith in fundamental breakthroughs.
Editor's Notes
Public value, not private value
Projected changes in median runoff for 2041 to 2060, relative to a 1901 to 1970 baseline, are mapped by water-resource region. Colors indicate percentage changes in runoff. Hatched areas indicate greater confidence due to strong agreement among model projections. U.S. white areas indicate divergence among model projections. Results are based on emissions in between the lower and higher emissions scenarios
Definition of a surrogate goalA person who holds Goal A strongly and Goal B weakly, but believes that achieving Goal B will also achieve Goal A, can pursue Goal B as a surrogate for Goal A. Usually, Goal A will be revealed only in special circumstances. Recognizing that a multiplicity of surrogate goals is at play has considerable explanatory power. Surrogate goals and climate changeIn the formulation of policy to deal with climate change, the general objective of slowing the rate of climate change is often a surrogate for more strongly held goals, such as:Augmenting financial transfers to developing countriesBringing the fossil fuel era to a closeCurtailing consumerism and human centerednessPromoting self-sufficiency and autonomous communitiesDiminishing the power of technological elitesPromoting environmental scienceEncouraging entrepreneurship A problem arises when an action in support of the surrogate goal negates the person’s more strongly held goal. Nuclear power strengthens technological elites. Capturing and storing CO2 prolongs the fossil fuel era.
Definition of a surrogate goalA person who holds Goal A strongly and Goal B weakly, but believes that achieving Goal B will also achieve Goal A, can pursue Goal B as a surrogate for Goal A. Usually, Goal A will be revealed only in special circumstances. Recognizing that a multiplicity of surrogate goals is at play has considerable explanatory power. Surrogate goals and climate changeIn the formulation of policy to deal with climate change, the general objective of slowing the rate of climate change is often a surrogate for more strongly held goals, such as:Augmenting financial transfers to developing countriesBringing the fossil fuel era to a closeCurtailing consumerism and human centerednessPromoting self-sufficiency and autonomous communitiesDiminishing the power of technological elitesPromoting environmental scienceEncouraging entrepreneurship A problem arises when an action in support of the surrogate goal negates the person’s more strongly held goal. Nuclear power strengthens technological elites. Capturing and storing CO2 prolongs the fossil fuel era.
Definition of a surrogate goalA person who holds Goal A strongly and Goal B weakly, but believes that achieving Goal B will also achieve Goal A, can pursue Goal B as a surrogate for Goal A. Usually, Goal A will be revealed only in special circumstances. Recognizing that a multiplicity of surrogate goals is at play has considerable explanatory power. Surrogate goals and climate changeIn the formulation of policy to deal with climate change, the general objective of slowing the rate of climate change is often a surrogate for more strongly held goals, such as:Augmenting financial transfers to developing countriesBringing the fossil fuel era to a closeCurtailing consumerism and human centerednessPromoting self-sufficiency and autonomous communitiesDiminishing the power of technological elitesPromoting environmental scienceEncouraging entrepreneurship A problem arises when an action in support of the surrogate goal negates the person’s more strongly held goal. Nuclear power strengthens technological elites. Capturing and storing CO2 prolongs the fossil fuel era.