This document discusses the need to act on climate change through the lens of economics and risk analysis. It summarizes the views of several economists who argue that implementing a modest carbon price starting soon, even as low as $15-55 per tonne increasing over time, is the most cost-effective approach according to neoclassical economics. It also notes that economic models are limited and tend to underestimate climate risks and damages. The document concludes that given the potential catastrophic consequences of climate change, it is prudent to take action to reduce emissions and transition away from fossil fuels, especially since doing so has additional economic and national security benefits.
Bringing data center management and technology into the 21st CenturyJonathan Koomey
This talk is a slightly modified and condensed version of one I gave at DCD Converged in London on the morning of November 19, 2014. I gave it at VIP dinner sponsored by Siemens on the evening of that same day. I moved "One boss, one team, and one budget" to be the 2nd thing management can do, because tying IT to business performance with metrics is a prerequisite to doing the hard work of busting the silos. I realized this during the talk ("One boss, one team, and one budget" was original item #1).
Koomey on Climate Change as an Entrepreneurial ChallengeJonathan Koomey
This is an updated version of my talk on climate change as an entrepreneurial challenge. I gave this version, which has updated graphs on temperatures, among other things, at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory on October 21, 2014. The bulk of the talk is making the case for urgent action and summarizing the findings of climate science for an entrepreneurial audience.
This talk, given at Google on June 6, 2012, summarizes what we know about energy use and information technology in a clear and understandable way. The person preceding me on stage was former Vice President Al Gore, so the pressure was on! I think I delivered, but you be the judge.
Climate Change as an Entrepreneurial Challenge: A virtual talk for the St. L...Jonathan Koomey
In this talk I explain why climate change is the biggest challenge humanity has ever faced, and describe the lessons for entrepreneurs that follow from our scientific knowledge about climate change. It focuses on "working forward toward a goal", a business oriented framing of the problem that will be familiar to any executive whose organization has had to understand and tackle a big problem. I gave this talk via Skype on July 27, 2014. It's similar to this one: http://www.slideshare.net/jgkoomey/koomeys-talk-at-clean-tech-open-sf-event-m
The computing trend that will change everythingJonathan Koomey
This talk, given at the VERGE conference in Washington DC on March 15, 2012, describes in about 9 minutes the implications of the long-term trend in the energy efficiency of computing that we described in this refereed journal article: Koomey, Jonathan G., Stephen Berard, Marla Sanchez, and Henry Wong. 2011. "Implications of Historical Trends in The Electrical Efficiency of Computing." IEEE Annals of the History of Computing. vol. 33, no. 3. July-September. pp. 46-54. [http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/MAHC.2010.28]
Chapter 1 Integrating Internet Marketing into the Marketing Communications MixTeachingInternetMarketing
The presentation that accompanies chapter 1 of Internet Marketing:Integrating Online and Offline Strategies. Adopters of the text receive access to the remainder of the chapter PPTs and the Instructors Manual.
Koomey's talk on energy use and the information economy at the UC Berkeley Ph...Jonathan Koomey
I gave this talk on energy use and the information economy at the UC Berkeley Physics of Sustainable Energy Symposium March 8, 2014. It summarizes what I think are the most important issues related to the direct and indirect effects of information technology on energy use.
Bringing data center management and technology into the 21st CenturyJonathan Koomey
This talk is a slightly modified and condensed version of one I gave at DCD Converged in London on the morning of November 19, 2014. I gave it at VIP dinner sponsored by Siemens on the evening of that same day. I moved "One boss, one team, and one budget" to be the 2nd thing management can do, because tying IT to business performance with metrics is a prerequisite to doing the hard work of busting the silos. I realized this during the talk ("One boss, one team, and one budget" was original item #1).
Koomey on Climate Change as an Entrepreneurial ChallengeJonathan Koomey
This is an updated version of my talk on climate change as an entrepreneurial challenge. I gave this version, which has updated graphs on temperatures, among other things, at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory on October 21, 2014. The bulk of the talk is making the case for urgent action and summarizing the findings of climate science for an entrepreneurial audience.
This talk, given at Google on June 6, 2012, summarizes what we know about energy use and information technology in a clear and understandable way. The person preceding me on stage was former Vice President Al Gore, so the pressure was on! I think I delivered, but you be the judge.
Climate Change as an Entrepreneurial Challenge: A virtual talk for the St. L...Jonathan Koomey
In this talk I explain why climate change is the biggest challenge humanity has ever faced, and describe the lessons for entrepreneurs that follow from our scientific knowledge about climate change. It focuses on "working forward toward a goal", a business oriented framing of the problem that will be familiar to any executive whose organization has had to understand and tackle a big problem. I gave this talk via Skype on July 27, 2014. It's similar to this one: http://www.slideshare.net/jgkoomey/koomeys-talk-at-clean-tech-open-sf-event-m
The computing trend that will change everythingJonathan Koomey
This talk, given at the VERGE conference in Washington DC on March 15, 2012, describes in about 9 minutes the implications of the long-term trend in the energy efficiency of computing that we described in this refereed journal article: Koomey, Jonathan G., Stephen Berard, Marla Sanchez, and Henry Wong. 2011. "Implications of Historical Trends in The Electrical Efficiency of Computing." IEEE Annals of the History of Computing. vol. 33, no. 3. July-September. pp. 46-54. [http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/MAHC.2010.28]
Chapter 1 Integrating Internet Marketing into the Marketing Communications MixTeachingInternetMarketing
The presentation that accompanies chapter 1 of Internet Marketing:Integrating Online and Offline Strategies. Adopters of the text receive access to the remainder of the chapter PPTs and the Instructors Manual.
Koomey's talk on energy use and the information economy at the UC Berkeley Ph...Jonathan Koomey
I gave this talk on energy use and the information economy at the UC Berkeley Physics of Sustainable Energy Symposium March 8, 2014. It summarizes what I think are the most important issues related to the direct and indirect effects of information technology on energy use.
OERC Seminar September 2018
Bob Lloyd
Director Raynbird Consultants
Former Assoc Professor , Department of Physics, Otago University
The talk will cover the mitigation strategies given in the IPCC AR5 report. How these have changed since 2015 in terms of the climate change models available. I will also discuss the methane problem, the forest CO2 removals problem and the carbon budgets available to mitigate sufficiently, to stay below global temperature rises that could cause runaway climate change scenarios. For NZ, a recap of the latest 7th National communication to the UN and the Governments NZ zero emissions plan for 2050. Is it sufficient and does it have the right targets that will prevent the global problem. Finally I will discuss my efforts in developing countries (The Pacific Island Nations) in developing their mitigation plans and the conflict in such countries between mitigation and development
A presentation on the Social Cost of Carbon at the Norwegian Environmental Agency. I presented on mitigation scenarios with a few reflections on carbon prices and relationship of policy with the SCC.
The evolution of the GDP with a scarcity of the natural resourcesEfraim Chababe
The 21st century being marked by the transition to green energies and to the 2020 and 2050 milestones set by global meetings on climate changes, our current transition pace is far too low when taking into account the expected progression of the GDP, and
countries' carbon footprint instead of their carbon emission.
A paper in 2017 argued for a considerable revision on the carbon budget for 1.5°C (https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3031), & I had some concerns (http://www.cicero.uio.no/no/posts/nyheter/commentary-did-15c-suddenly-get-easier). This is an extended presentation from a debate with the authors (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7JS6x5fBNk)
Etude PwC sur les émissions de carbone et le rechauffement climatique (2012)PwC France
http://www.pwc.fr/too-late-for-two-degrees.html
Selon l’étude Low Carbon Economy Index de PwC, aux taux de croissance actuels des émissions de carbone, le réchauffement climatique pourrait atteindre au moins 6°C d’ici la fin du siècle. En effet, le taux annuel de réduction des émissions de carbone par unité de PIB nécessaire pour limiter à 2oC le réchauffement climatique a franchi un seuil critique. Le taux de réduction désormais requis n’a jamais été aussi significatif : il faudrait désormais réduire l’intensité carbone mondiale à 5,1 % par an en moyenne, un niveau jamais atteint depuis 1950.
L’étude de PwC mesure la progression des économies développées et émergentes dans le domaine de la réduction des émissions de carbone liées à la production économique. D’après cette étude, si l’augmentation de l’intensité des émissions observée en 2010 s’est inversée, la réduction mondiale de seulement 0,7 % en 2011 ne représente qu’une fraction de ce qui est prévu par les engagements internationaux visant à limiter à 2°C le réchauffement climatique mondial.
Past performance is no guide to future returns: Why we can't accurately fore...Jonathan Koomey
This webinar explores why (with few exceptions) models of economic systems do not yield accurate predictions about the future. Predictions can be accurate when systems have consistent structure (geographically and temporally) and when there are no surprises, but neither of these conditions holds for virtually all economic systems. Physical systems can exhibit structural constancy, so predictions based on physical sciences can be accurate (barring surprises). The webinar also explores implications of this irreducible uncertainty, introduces ways to cope with it, and discusses responsible use of economic modeling tools in the face of such modeling limitations. The talk explores these issues using examples of forecasts of US primary energy use, oil prices, electricity demand, and the costs of nuclear power.
Speak dollars not gadgets: How to get upper management to pay attentionJonathan Koomey
Jonathan Koomey gave this presentation at the Data Center Dynamics Conference in Seattle, WA on Sept. 4, 2014. It describes what executives need to do to modernize their IT operations, and describes an upcoming (Nov 10 to Dec 12, 2014) online class titled Data Center Essentials for Executives, see http://goo.gl/K4kJG2
OERC Seminar September 2018
Bob Lloyd
Director Raynbird Consultants
Former Assoc Professor , Department of Physics, Otago University
The talk will cover the mitigation strategies given in the IPCC AR5 report. How these have changed since 2015 in terms of the climate change models available. I will also discuss the methane problem, the forest CO2 removals problem and the carbon budgets available to mitigate sufficiently, to stay below global temperature rises that could cause runaway climate change scenarios. For NZ, a recap of the latest 7th National communication to the UN and the Governments NZ zero emissions plan for 2050. Is it sufficient and does it have the right targets that will prevent the global problem. Finally I will discuss my efforts in developing countries (The Pacific Island Nations) in developing their mitigation plans and the conflict in such countries between mitigation and development
A presentation on the Social Cost of Carbon at the Norwegian Environmental Agency. I presented on mitigation scenarios with a few reflections on carbon prices and relationship of policy with the SCC.
The evolution of the GDP with a scarcity of the natural resourcesEfraim Chababe
The 21st century being marked by the transition to green energies and to the 2020 and 2050 milestones set by global meetings on climate changes, our current transition pace is far too low when taking into account the expected progression of the GDP, and
countries' carbon footprint instead of their carbon emission.
A paper in 2017 argued for a considerable revision on the carbon budget for 1.5°C (https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3031), & I had some concerns (http://www.cicero.uio.no/no/posts/nyheter/commentary-did-15c-suddenly-get-easier). This is an extended presentation from a debate with the authors (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7JS6x5fBNk)
Etude PwC sur les émissions de carbone et le rechauffement climatique (2012)PwC France
http://www.pwc.fr/too-late-for-two-degrees.html
Selon l’étude Low Carbon Economy Index de PwC, aux taux de croissance actuels des émissions de carbone, le réchauffement climatique pourrait atteindre au moins 6°C d’ici la fin du siècle. En effet, le taux annuel de réduction des émissions de carbone par unité de PIB nécessaire pour limiter à 2oC le réchauffement climatique a franchi un seuil critique. Le taux de réduction désormais requis n’a jamais été aussi significatif : il faudrait désormais réduire l’intensité carbone mondiale à 5,1 % par an en moyenne, un niveau jamais atteint depuis 1950.
L’étude de PwC mesure la progression des économies développées et émergentes dans le domaine de la réduction des émissions de carbone liées à la production économique. D’après cette étude, si l’augmentation de l’intensité des émissions observée en 2010 s’est inversée, la réduction mondiale de seulement 0,7 % en 2011 ne représente qu’une fraction de ce qui est prévu par les engagements internationaux visant à limiter à 2°C le réchauffement climatique mondial.
Past performance is no guide to future returns: Why we can't accurately fore...Jonathan Koomey
This webinar explores why (with few exceptions) models of economic systems do not yield accurate predictions about the future. Predictions can be accurate when systems have consistent structure (geographically and temporally) and when there are no surprises, but neither of these conditions holds for virtually all economic systems. Physical systems can exhibit structural constancy, so predictions based on physical sciences can be accurate (barring surprises). The webinar also explores implications of this irreducible uncertainty, introduces ways to cope with it, and discusses responsible use of economic modeling tools in the face of such modeling limitations. The talk explores these issues using examples of forecasts of US primary energy use, oil prices, electricity demand, and the costs of nuclear power.
Speak dollars not gadgets: How to get upper management to pay attentionJonathan Koomey
Jonathan Koomey gave this presentation at the Data Center Dynamics Conference in Seattle, WA on Sept. 4, 2014. It describes what executives need to do to modernize their IT operations, and describes an upcoming (Nov 10 to Dec 12, 2014) online class titled Data Center Essentials for Executives, see http://goo.gl/K4kJG2
Koomey's talk at the Clean Tech Open SF event, April 2, 2014Jonathan Koomey
This is the talk I gave at the Clean Tech Open SF event on April 2, 2014, which was held at Impact Hub San Francisco. It summarizes findings from my latest book, Cold Cash, Cool Climate: http://amzn.to/Av0O9O
Bringing Enterprise IT into the 21st Century: A Management and Sustainabilit...Jonathan Koomey
I gave this talk as a webinar on March 19th, 2014 for the Corporate Eco Forum. It discusses ways to improve the efficiency of enterprise IT, mainly focusing on institutional changes that are necessary to make modern IT organizations perform effectively. It draws upon our case study of eBay as well as my other work on data centers over the years.
Facing the climate challenge: Implications of the 2 degree limitJonathan Koomey
This is a lecture I gave for Leslie Field's class on Engineering and Climate Change at Stanford on September 24, 2013. It describes an alternative to the traditional benefit-cost framing of the climate problem, called "working forward toward a goal". It's one that relies on our best understanding of the climate system as well as the lessons from business planners about facing big strategic challenges. See the discussion in my book Cold Cash, Cool Climate: Science-based Advice for Ecological Entrepreneurs http://amzn.to/Av0O9O for details.
Why predictive modeling is essential for managing a modern computing facilityJonathan Koomey
This talk, given at Data Center Dynamics on July 12, 2013, summarizes the importance of predictive modeling to capturing lost cooling and power capacity in the data center. It also describes some results from a recent case study Future Facilities did at an Equinix data center in the Bay area.
Koomey on why ultra-low power computing will change everythingJonathan Koomey
This talk summarizes the implications of long-term trends in the efficiency of computing, communications, energy storage, and energy harvesting. It's one of my favorites! It took place on October 31, 2012.
This is a talk I gave at the end of my first visiting professorship at Stanford in 2004. It gives a preview of Rocky Mountain Institute's Winning the Oil Endgame study, which was released in September 2004. http://www.oilendgame.com
2007 Koomey talk on historical costs of nuclear power in the USJonathan Koomey
This is a talk I gave at the Detroit Edison Company on April 17, 2007. It's the most complete version summarizing our work on the historical costs of nuclear power. That worked appeared in three refereed journal articles:
Hultman, Nathan E., and Jonathan G. Koomey. 2007. "The risk of surprise in energy technology costs." Environmental Research Letters. vol. 2, no. 034002. July. <http: />
Hultman, Nathan E., Jonathan G. Koomey, and Daniel M. Kammen. 2007. "What history can teach us about the future costs of U.S. nuclear power." Environmental Science & Technology. vol. 41, no. 7. April 1. pp. 2088-2093.
Koomey, Jonathan G., and Nathan E. Hultman. 2007. "A reactor-level analysis of busbar costs for U.S. nuclear plants, 1970-2005." Energy Policy. vol. 35, no. 11. November. pp. 5630-5642. <http: />
The last article is the primary source--the other two derive policy insights from the data developed in that last article.
5. If we don’t alter course, we’ll end up where we’re headed
MIT (Sokolov et al.) 2009
Global average surface
temperature is heading well
outside the range experienced
during the tenure of Homo
IPCC 2007 scenarios to
sapiens on Earth (slide courtesy 2100 ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐>
of John P. Holdren, Harvard
University, modified by JK).
Year 2000
concentra/ons
5
6. One example: in a warming world,
summers will get a LOT hotter
6
Derived from data and analysis in Hayhoe et al. 2008
7. Long residence time of CO2 means big
reductions needed to stabilize temps.
Change in T (degC) relative to preindustrial levels
4.5 30
Annual carbon emissions (GtC/year)
4.0
25
3.5
3.0 20
2.5
15
2.0
1.5 10
Stabiliza/on case Stabiliza/on case
1.0
5
0.5
0.0 0
2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100
Change in world temperatures World C emissions
Con/nued growth and flat emissions scenario are taken from the IIASA GGI database (A2r and B2, respec/vely). Stabiliza/on
case is adapted from the B2 480 ppm scenario. hTp://www.iiasa.ac.at/web‐apps/ggi/GgiDb/ 7
8. The longer we wait, the harder the
task will be
Area under both curves is the
same, corresponding to the
same emissions budget.
Stabiliza/on curve is the same
as in the previous slide.
8
9. Most capital existing in 2050 will
be built between now and then
Percentage of total stock in 2050
Assumes growth in electricity use, GDP, and population from IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2009. Lifetimes 9
of capital stock 50 years for power plants and comml bdgs, 30 yrs for industrial, and 100 years for residences.
14. Nordhaus of Yale says…
• “Global warming is a serious problem that will
not solve itself…There is no case for delay.
The most fruitful and effective approach is for
countries to put a harmonized price–perhaps
a steep price–on greenhouse gas
emissions…” (optimal price = $7.40/tonne
CO2 in 2005 rising between 2 and 3% real
each year to account for rising damages)
W. Nordhaus, A Question of Balance, pp.28-29
(p.15-16 for optimal price).
14
15. Yohe of Wesleyan says…
• “Simple economics tells you that the most
cost-effective way of responding is to start
now.”
• “We should start with a price for carbon in,
say, 2008…at $15 per ton increasing at
the rate of interest.”
– Quoted in Scientific American online,
November 26, 2007. David Biello was the
interviewer.
15
16. Anthoff, Tol, and Yohe say
• “We show that the social cost of carbon lies
anywhere in between 0 and $120,000/tC.
However, if we restrict these two parameters
to match observed behavior, an expected
social cost of carbon of $60/tC ($16/tCO2)
results. If we correct this estimate for income
differences across the world, the social cost
of carbon rises to over $200/tC ($55/tCO2).”
–Anthoff et al. 2008, Risk Aversion, Time
Preference, and the Social Cost of Carbon
16
17. Galiana and Green say…
• “Our technology-led policy also includes a
variant on carbon pricing…a $5 charge
levied on each tonne of CO2 emitted…
[that] would be allowed to gradually rise,
doubling, say, every 10 years.”
– Lane et al. 2009. Copenhagen Consensus
on Climate: Advice for Policy Makers.
Copenhagen: Copenhagen Consensus
Center. <http://www.fixtheclimate.com>
17
18. Lomborg’s conclusions from
Copenhagen Consensus: Wait
and see, no (or tiny) carbon
taxes, no other climate policies,
only R&D on mitigation
technologies and
geoengineering.
18
19. Lomborg says…
• “Short-term carbon emission reductions
through carbon taxes [even ones as low as
$0.50/ton] are a ‘poor’ response to global
warming [and] cutting carbon through cap-
and-trade would be an even poorer solution.”
– Lomborg’s introduction to Lane et al. 2009.
Copenhagen Consensus on Climate: Advice
for Policy Makers. Copenhagen:
Copenhagen Consensus Center. <http://
www.fixtheclimate.com>
19
20. He also says
• “[Instead of implementing] ambitious, early,
and large carbon-cutting programs…it would
be smarter to act cautiously by implementing
a low carbon tax of about $0.5 per ton…and
increase it gradually through the century .”
–Lomborg, Bjorn. 2009. Beyond the Carbon
Crusade. Copenhagen: Copenhagen
Consensus Center. August. <http://
www.fixtheclimate.com>
20
23. Neoclassical economic models
biased towards
• underestimating damages
– Many impacts not convertible to dollars with
precision or at all
– Potential nonlinearities and feedbacks not
represented well or at all
• overestimating mitigation costs
– Using incomplete technology + policy portfolios
– Omitting learning and increasing returns to scale
– Ignoring options that save money and reduce C
23
24. Pascal’s wager for climate
• What if I’m wrong?
– At most a 1-2 year delay of achieving a certain
global GDP level because of costs of action (but
costs will almost certainly be much lower)
– Shift away from fossil fuels, which is good for
other reasons (avoids local air pollution, coal
waste, mining accidents, and oil dependence.
Also allows us to compete better with China)
• What if Lomborg’s wrong?
– Catastrophic, irreversible, and unpredictable
damages to the global life-support systems upon
which we all depend
24
25. Conclusions
• The science about climate risks is clear: our
current path is not sustainable
• Arguments for delay do not reflect current
thinking in neoclassical economics or the
realities of the climate system.
• We buy insurance against catastrophic risks
all the time, and should do the same for
climate by investing in a low carbon future
• We have many proven money saving and
low-cost options, we just need the will to act
– And acting will substantially lower costs because
of learning-by-doing, but we only learn if we DO.
25
27. Useful web sites
• Nice summary for lay people of recent issues in the climate
debate: <http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-met-0228-
climate-science-questions-20100302,0,2670932.story>
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: <http://
www.ipcc.ch/>
• Policy + science: <http://climateprogress.org>
• Climate science: <http://www.realclimate.org/>
• More on science: <http://www.skepticalscience.com/>
• McKinsey on climate: <http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/
ccsi/>
• Copenhagen consensus site: <http://
www.copenhagenconsensus.com/>
• The Lomborg Errors site is very thorough: <http://
www.lomborg-errors.dk/>
27
28. Sources cited
• Anthoff, David, Richard S.J. Tol, and Gary W. Yohe. 2008. Risk Aversion, Time Preference, and the Social
Cost of Carbon. Dublin, Ireland: Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). Working paper No. 252.
September. <http://www.esri.ie/UserFiles/publications/20080904135651/WP252.pdf>
• Hayhoe, Katharine, Cameron Wake, Bruce Anderson, Xin-Zhong Liang, Edwin Maurer, Jinhong Zhu,
James Bradbury, Art DeGaetano, Anne Marie Stoner, and Donald Wuebbles. 2008. "Regional climate
change projections for the Northeast USA." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. vol.
13, no. 5-6. June. pp. 425-436.
• IEA. 2009. World Energy Outlook 2009. Paris, France: International Energy Agency, Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). November. <http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/>
• Lane, Lee, J .Eric Bickel, Isabel Galiana, Chris Green, and Valentina Bosetti. 2009. Copenhagen
Consensus on Climate: Advice for Policy Makers. Copenhagen: Copenhagen Consensus Center.
<http://www.fixtheclimate.com>
• Meinshausen, Malte, Nicolai Meinshausen, William Hare, Sarah C. B. Raper, Katja Frieler, Reto Knutti,
David J. Frame, and Myles R. Allen. 2009. "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming
to 2 degrees C." Nature. vol. 458, April 30. pp. 1158-1162. <http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v458/
n7242/full/nature08017.html>
• Nordhaus, William D. 2008. A Question of Balance: Weighing the Options on Global Warming Policies.
New Haven, CT: Yale University Press. See especially the excellent introductory chapter for interested
lay people.
• Sokolov, A.P., P.H. Stone, C.E. Forest, R. Prinn, M.C. Sarofim, M. Webster, S. Paltsev, C.A. Schlosser, D.
Kicklighter, S. Dutkiewicz, J. Reilly, C. Wang, B. Felzer, J. Melillo, and H.D. Jacoby. 2009. Probabilistic
Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate
Parameters. Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Joint Program on the Science
and Policy of Climate Change. Report #169. January. Latest BAU forecast for the world.
• DOWNLOAD HANDOUT FOR FURTHER READING: http://files.me.com/jgkoomey/iibjd8
28
30. It is fashionable today to assume that any figures
about the future are better than none. To produce
figures about the unknown, the current method is
to make a guess about something or other–called
an “assumption”–and to derive an estimate from it
by subtle calculation. The estimate is then
presented as the result of scientific reasoning,
something far superior to mere guesswork. This is
a pernicious practice that can only lead to the
most colossal planning errors, because it offers a
bogus answer where, in fact, an entrepreneurial
judgment is required.
— E.F. SCHUMACHER
30
31. Nature op-ed on hacked emails
"Nothing in the e-mails undermines the
scientific case that global warming is real
— or that human activities are almost
certainly the cause. That case is
supported by multiple, robust lines of
evidence, including several that are
completely independent of the climate
reconstructions debated in the e-mails."
31
32. AP on hacked emails
"LONDON — E-mails stolen from climate
scientists show they stonewalled skeptics
and discussed hiding data — but the
messages don't support claims that the
science of global warming was faked,
according to an exhaustive review by The
Associated Press…The AP studied all the
e-mails for context, with five reporters
reading and rereading them — about 1
million words in total…."
hTp://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory?id=9319400
32
33. What do we know about climate?
• “Unequivocal” that the earth’s climate
is warming
• More than 90% certainty that human
emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse
gases are the cause
(Findings from IPCC 2007 WGI, AR4)
33
35. Dramatic recent
changes in CO2
and CH4
concentrations
“We know humans are responsible for the CO2
spike [since pre‐industrial /mes] because fossil
CO2 lacks carbon‐14, and the drop in
atmospheric C‐14 from the fossil‐CO2 addi/ons
is measurable.”
–John P. Holdren, Harvard University
Source of graphs: IPCC Working Group 1 Summary for Policy
Makers, Fourth Assessment report, 2007.
35
37. Significant emissions reductions
possible in US at zero net cost
Actual Base case
57% of 2020
savings from
electricity,
28% from
transport
Advanced case
Brown, Marilyn A., Mark D. Levine, Walter Short, and Jonathan G. Koomey. 2001.
"Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future." Energy Policy (Also LBNL-48031). vol. 29, no.
14. November. pp. 1179-1196. Full report: hTp://www.ornl.gov/sci/eere/cef/
37
38. 2 degrees C warming limit
• Keeps global T within humanity’s experience
• Implies cumulative GHG emissions “budget”
• Limit itself now widely accepted (e.g., G8 in
2009), but implications are not well known
– Global emissions must turn down in a decade,
down 50% by 2050, more soon afterwards
– Waiting has a real cost
– We must act quickly on many fronts
• It’s Sputnik, not Apollo
38
39. 2 deg C and fossil fuel reserves
Source: Meinshausen et al. 2009 . NB this graph uses Gt CO2, not C
39
40. Delaying makes no sense in the
warming limit context
• When we act makes a difference
• Delaying action on climate
– eats up the budget
– makes required reductions more rapid, more
difficult, and more costly later
– sacrifices learning and reduces possibilities for
future action (learning by doing requires that we
DO!)
• Remember, energy techs don’t ∆ fast and
atmospheric residence time of C is ~100 yrs
40