The document summarizes a presentation on the physical and economic impacts of climate change. It discusses the context of resurgent skepticism on climate change and recaps the scientific evidence of rising global temperatures supported by multiple independent records. It outlines projections for significant impacts including rising sea levels that threaten coastal areas, more extreme weather events, effects on global food security, and impacts in regions like Africa, Asia and Australia. It notes Australia's high per capita emissions and contribution to rising CO2 levels. It argues for strong mitigation efforts to transition to a low-carbon economy as a responsible approach and avoid severe economic and social consequences of unchecked climate change in the coming decades and centuries.
DE presentation to IISD on May 7, 2008. Title: Amazon Resilience and Busines...DE Design and Environment
Presentation given to the Natural Resources Management Group of the International Institute for Sustainable Development on May 7, 2008. The topics were: Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems and Design and Business Evolution
DE presentation to IISD on May 7, 2008. Title: Amazon Resilience and Busines...DE Design and Environment
Presentation given to the Natural Resources Management Group of the International Institute for Sustainable Development on May 7, 2008. The topics were: Estimating Resilience of Amazonian Ecosystems and Design and Business Evolution
Rising Seas and Solutions: MIT Club of Southwest Florida.Paul H. Carr
1. RISING SEAS
Sea levels are now rising 4 times faster than in 1900.
Sea levels could rise up to 18 ft by 2058.
2015 & 2016: warmest years on record.
2. SOLUTIONS: Green Technology & Legislation
GreenATP ucla anderson business school mp totten 06 11Michael P Totten
Slides from seminar. See article for details: http://www.scribd.com/mtotten6756
Summary:
Humanity’s unceasing ingenuity is generating vast economic gain for billions of people with goods unavailable to even kings and queens throughout most of history. Unfortunately, this economic growth has triggered unprecedented se- curity challenges of global and historical magnitude: more absolute poor than any time in human history, the sixth largest extinction spasm of life on earth, climate destabilization with mega-catastrophic consequences, and multi-trillion dollar wars over access to energy. These multiple, inextricably interwoven chal- lenges have low probability of being solved if decision makers maintain the strong propensity to think and act as if life is linear, has no carrying capacity limits, uncertainty is controllable, the future free of surprises, planning is predictable and compartmentalized into silos, and Gaussian distributions are taken as the norm while fat-tail futures are ignored. Although the future holds irreducible uncertainties, it is not fated. The emergence of Internet availability to one-third of humanity and access by most of humanity within a decade has spawned the Web analogue of a ‘Cambrian explosion’ of speciation in knowledge applica- tions. Among the most prodigious have been collaboration innovation networks (COINs) reflecting a diversity of ‘genome’ types, facilitating a myriad of collective intelligence crowd-swarming phenomena (Malone T, Laubacher R, Dellarocas C. The Collective Intelligence Genome. MIT Sloan Management Review, Spring; 2010, Vol. 51). COINs are essential tools for accelerating and scaling transformational solutions (positive tipping points) to the wicked problems confronting humanity. Web COINs enable acceleration of multiple-benefit innovations and solutions to these problems that permeate the nested clusters of linked nonlinear complex adaptive systems comprising the global biosphere and socioeconomy [Raford N. How to build a collective intelligence platform to crowdsource almost anything. Available at: http:news.noahraford.com.
Nobel Laureate Mario Molina spoke about the impact of energy on climate change at the Joint Public Advisory Committee's public forum on Greening North America's Energy Economy in Calgary on 24 April 2013. More at: http://cec.org/jpacenergy
Technology and Policies are Available to Save Our Environment.Paul H. Carr
OUTLINE: POLICY INFLUENCERS
1. Wall Street Journal - Is climate science settled?
2. Peer-reviewed Climate Science Articles- 99% settled.
3. Forbes – Is carbon-free energy available?
4. Nashua Telegraph – What about China’s coal burning?
5. Risky Business Report - Economics of Global Warming. by Bloomberg, Paulsen, & Steyer
6. Pope Francis’ Moral Responsibility to bequeath a habitable planet to future generations
Presentation by Chris Swanston to support the Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) J.W. Jones Ecological Research Center Workshop held January 12-14, 2016
My presentation to the World Nuclear Association Symposium 2015. In this presentation I discussed updated findings of my review of 100 % renewable energy system literature.
Professor Schneider is actively involved with the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and specializes in projecting global climate change and related impacts for the future. He is also dedicated to communicating science to the public.
Carbon CycleThis module uses a variety of sources to educate.docxtidwellveronique
Carbon Cycle
This module uses a variety of sources to educate you about the carbon cycle and current theories of climate. In this module, you will use resources that have opposing views about the impact of humans on the carbon cycle and global climate.
Of the many, many, different theories about climate change, we are only presenting a few. Our attempt in this activity is to give a few examples illustrating the complexity involved in studying the environment and the impact of bias on scientific research.
A. The carbon cycle is currently in the news as people look for explanations for changes in climate. This issue provides excellent examples of bias in the presentation of information.
What is bias in relation to science and reporting? Use any online dictionary and search for “bias”. Write the definition that relates to bias in science and reporting.
Answer:
Does being biased necessarily mean that you are wrong?
Yes
No
B. Theories Explaining Climate Change:
Climate fluctuations have long been observed to be cyclical. Theories explaining the variations include the following:
· Human Cause. Humans are responsible for an increase in greenhouse gases that is causing the Earth to warm up and change the climate.
· Natural Cycle. The climate changes observed are cyclical and natural.
· Volcanic Events. Volcanoes cause variations in the ability of the Earth’s atmosphere to absorb energy.
· Astronomical Cause. The Milankivitch Theory asserts that climate changes are caused by changes in the tilt of the Earth’s axis. Changes in some areas are balanced by opposite changes in other areas.
· Variations if Energy Output from the Sun. Variations in heat from the sun causes drastic changes in climate.
C. Two movies shown in movie theaters have energized the “Global Climate Change” controversy. Evaluate the following movies using the questions on the next page. All information for this page is contained on the websites linked below. If you would like to learn more, you may be able to rent the movies.
Movie 1: An Inconvenient Truth
Website: http://www.takepart.com/an-inconvenient-truth Click the link “The Film” on the top tab and evaluate the reading list on the right side of the page. Much information was removed from the original website, however, the RealClimate website mostly supports the movie and provides a review at http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/05/al-gores-movie/.
The website for An Inconvenient Truth has removed the original science pages and the "Hockey Stick" graphic that was one of its main graphics. It now links the following information from its official website at takepart.com:
Purpose Statement. Climate change, also called global warming, refers to the rise in average surface temperatures on Earth.
· An overwhelming scientific consensus maintains that climate change is due primarily to the human use of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the air.
· The gases ...
Rising Seas and Solutions: MIT Club of Southwest Florida.Paul H. Carr
1. RISING SEAS
Sea levels are now rising 4 times faster than in 1900.
Sea levels could rise up to 18 ft by 2058.
2015 & 2016: warmest years on record.
2. SOLUTIONS: Green Technology & Legislation
GreenATP ucla anderson business school mp totten 06 11Michael P Totten
Slides from seminar. See article for details: http://www.scribd.com/mtotten6756
Summary:
Humanity’s unceasing ingenuity is generating vast economic gain for billions of people with goods unavailable to even kings and queens throughout most of history. Unfortunately, this economic growth has triggered unprecedented se- curity challenges of global and historical magnitude: more absolute poor than any time in human history, the sixth largest extinction spasm of life on earth, climate destabilization with mega-catastrophic consequences, and multi-trillion dollar wars over access to energy. These multiple, inextricably interwoven chal- lenges have low probability of being solved if decision makers maintain the strong propensity to think and act as if life is linear, has no carrying capacity limits, uncertainty is controllable, the future free of surprises, planning is predictable and compartmentalized into silos, and Gaussian distributions are taken as the norm while fat-tail futures are ignored. Although the future holds irreducible uncertainties, it is not fated. The emergence of Internet availability to one-third of humanity and access by most of humanity within a decade has spawned the Web analogue of a ‘Cambrian explosion’ of speciation in knowledge applica- tions. Among the most prodigious have been collaboration innovation networks (COINs) reflecting a diversity of ‘genome’ types, facilitating a myriad of collective intelligence crowd-swarming phenomena (Malone T, Laubacher R, Dellarocas C. The Collective Intelligence Genome. MIT Sloan Management Review, Spring; 2010, Vol. 51). COINs are essential tools for accelerating and scaling transformational solutions (positive tipping points) to the wicked problems confronting humanity. Web COINs enable acceleration of multiple-benefit innovations and solutions to these problems that permeate the nested clusters of linked nonlinear complex adaptive systems comprising the global biosphere and socioeconomy [Raford N. How to build a collective intelligence platform to crowdsource almost anything. Available at: http:news.noahraford.com.
Nobel Laureate Mario Molina spoke about the impact of energy on climate change at the Joint Public Advisory Committee's public forum on Greening North America's Energy Economy in Calgary on 24 April 2013. More at: http://cec.org/jpacenergy
Technology and Policies are Available to Save Our Environment.Paul H. Carr
OUTLINE: POLICY INFLUENCERS
1. Wall Street Journal - Is climate science settled?
2. Peer-reviewed Climate Science Articles- 99% settled.
3. Forbes – Is carbon-free energy available?
4. Nashua Telegraph – What about China’s coal burning?
5. Risky Business Report - Economics of Global Warming. by Bloomberg, Paulsen, & Steyer
6. Pope Francis’ Moral Responsibility to bequeath a habitable planet to future generations
Presentation by Chris Swanston to support the Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) J.W. Jones Ecological Research Center Workshop held January 12-14, 2016
My presentation to the World Nuclear Association Symposium 2015. In this presentation I discussed updated findings of my review of 100 % renewable energy system literature.
Professor Schneider is actively involved with the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and specializes in projecting global climate change and related impacts for the future. He is also dedicated to communicating science to the public.
Carbon CycleThis module uses a variety of sources to educate.docxtidwellveronique
Carbon Cycle
This module uses a variety of sources to educate you about the carbon cycle and current theories of climate. In this module, you will use resources that have opposing views about the impact of humans on the carbon cycle and global climate.
Of the many, many, different theories about climate change, we are only presenting a few. Our attempt in this activity is to give a few examples illustrating the complexity involved in studying the environment and the impact of bias on scientific research.
A. The carbon cycle is currently in the news as people look for explanations for changes in climate. This issue provides excellent examples of bias in the presentation of information.
What is bias in relation to science and reporting? Use any online dictionary and search for “bias”. Write the definition that relates to bias in science and reporting.
Answer:
Does being biased necessarily mean that you are wrong?
Yes
No
B. Theories Explaining Climate Change:
Climate fluctuations have long been observed to be cyclical. Theories explaining the variations include the following:
· Human Cause. Humans are responsible for an increase in greenhouse gases that is causing the Earth to warm up and change the climate.
· Natural Cycle. The climate changes observed are cyclical and natural.
· Volcanic Events. Volcanoes cause variations in the ability of the Earth’s atmosphere to absorb energy.
· Astronomical Cause. The Milankivitch Theory asserts that climate changes are caused by changes in the tilt of the Earth’s axis. Changes in some areas are balanced by opposite changes in other areas.
· Variations if Energy Output from the Sun. Variations in heat from the sun causes drastic changes in climate.
C. Two movies shown in movie theaters have energized the “Global Climate Change” controversy. Evaluate the following movies using the questions on the next page. All information for this page is contained on the websites linked below. If you would like to learn more, you may be able to rent the movies.
Movie 1: An Inconvenient Truth
Website: http://www.takepart.com/an-inconvenient-truth Click the link “The Film” on the top tab and evaluate the reading list on the right side of the page. Much information was removed from the original website, however, the RealClimate website mostly supports the movie and provides a review at http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/05/al-gores-movie/.
The website for An Inconvenient Truth has removed the original science pages and the "Hockey Stick" graphic that was one of its main graphics. It now links the following information from its official website at takepart.com:
Purpose Statement. Climate change, also called global warming, refers to the rise in average surface temperatures on Earth.
· An overwhelming scientific consensus maintains that climate change is due primarily to the human use of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the air.
· The gases ...
Similar to Dr Brett Paris – The physical and economic impacts of climate variability (20)
Building Your Employer Brand with Social MediaLuanWise
Presented at The Global HR Summit, 6th June 2024
In this keynote, Luan Wise will provide invaluable insights to elevate your employer brand on social media platforms including LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok. You'll learn how compelling content can authentically showcase your company culture, values, and employee experiences to support your talent acquisition and retention objectives. Additionally, you'll understand the power of employee advocacy to amplify reach and engagement – helping to position your organization as an employer of choice in today's competitive talent landscape.
How to Implement a Real Estate CRM SoftwareSalesTown
To implement a CRM for real estate, set clear goals, choose a CRM with key real estate features, and customize it to your needs. Migrate your data, train your team, and use automation to save time. Monitor performance, ensure data security, and use the CRM to enhance marketing. Regularly check its effectiveness to improve your business.
Event Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challengesHolger Mueller
Holger Mueller of Constellation Research shares his key takeaways from SAP's Sapphire confernece, held in Orlando, June 3rd till 5th 2024, in the Orange Convention Center.
Best practices for project execution and deliveryCLIVE MINCHIN
A select set of project management best practices to keep your project on-track, on-cost and aligned to scope. Many firms have don't have the necessary skills, diligence, methods and oversight of their projects; this leads to slippage, higher costs and longer timeframes. Often firms have a history of projects that simply failed to move the needle. These best practices will help your firm avoid these pitfalls but they require fortitude to apply.
Personal Brand Statement:
As an Army veteran dedicated to lifelong learning, I bring a disciplined, strategic mindset to my pursuits. I am constantly expanding my knowledge to innovate and lead effectively. My journey is driven by a commitment to excellence, and to make a meaningful impact in the world.
buy old yahoo accounts buy yahoo accountsSusan Laney
As a business owner, I understand the importance of having a strong online presence and leveraging various digital platforms to reach and engage with your target audience. One often overlooked yet highly valuable asset in this regard is the humble Yahoo account. While many may perceive Yahoo as a relic of the past, the truth is that these accounts still hold immense potential for businesses of all sizes.
3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptxtanyjahb
A personal brand exploration presentation summarizes an individual's unique qualities and goals, covering strengths, values, passions, and target audience. It helps individuals understand what makes them stand out, their desired image, and how they aim to achieve it.
Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and TemplatesAurelien Domont, MBA
This Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit was created by ex-McKinsey, Deloitte and BCG Management Consultants, after more than 5,000 hours of work. It is considered the world's best & most comprehensive Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit. It includes all the Frameworks, Best Practices & Templates required to successfully undertake the Digital Transformation of your organization and define a robust IT Strategy.
Editable Toolkit to help you reuse our content: 700 Powerpoint slides | 35 Excel sheets | 84 minutes of Video training
This PowerPoint presentation is only a small preview of our Toolkits. For more details, visit www.domontconsulting.com
Implicitly or explicitly all competing businesses employ a strategy to select a mix
of marketing resources. Formulating such competitive strategies fundamentally
involves recognizing relationships between elements of the marketing mix (e.g.,
price and product quality), as well as assessing competitive and market conditions
(i.e., industry structure in the language of economics).
Navigating the world of forex trading can be challenging, especially for beginners. To help you make an informed decision, we have comprehensively compared the best forex brokers in India for 2024. This article, reviewed by Top Forex Brokers Review, will cover featured award winners, the best forex brokers, featured offers, the best copy trading platforms, the best forex brokers for beginners, the best MetaTrader brokers, and recently updated reviews. We will focus on FP Markets, Black Bull, EightCap, IC Markets, and Octa.
Top mailing list providers in the USA.pptxJeremyPeirce1
Discover the top mailing list providers in the USA, offering targeted lists, segmentation, and analytics to optimize your marketing campaigns and drive engagement.
Dr Brett Paris – The physical and economic impacts of climate variability
1. The physical and economic impacts of
climate change
Solutions and Future Directions in Water, Energy and Waste
Management Forum
Dr Brett Parris
30 August 2011
Rydges Bell City
5. Incentives for disproving link between
greenhouse gases and climate change
Climate scientists: Fossil‐fuel intensive industries:
• Nobel Prize • Hundreds of billions of $ in future
• Lasting fame revenues
• Thanks of a grateful world • Higher asset values & stock prices
• Huge research grants • Increased ability to attract
talented staff
• Improved brand image
Conclusion?
• VERY strong incentives for
climate scientists to disprove
link. Hasn’t happened.
• VERY strong incentives for
fossil‐fuel intensive industries
to try to disprove or create
doubt about link.
Source: http://nobelprize.org/educational/nobelprize_info/
7. Example:
CO2 is natural ‐ how can it be a pollutant?
“Carbon‐dioxide: They call
it pollution. We call it life.”
‐ Competitive Enterprise Institute TV ad.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sGKvDNdJNA
A: Whether something is natural or not is irrelevant. It all
depends on its concentration and effects on the system
• Manure is natural. Some on your fields is good. Neck deep isn’t.
• A fraction of a drop of nerve agent VX (less than 10 milligrams) will kill you
stone dead. (0.000014% of 70kg body weight, compared with atmospheric
CO2 concentration 392 parts per million or 0.0392%)
• CO2 is only one (the most important) of around 60 greenhouse gases
12. Global Temps – Surface & Atmosphere
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/global-sfc-radiosonde-temp/201001-201012.gif
16. Is it the sun? volcanos? ….?
Source: Lean, J.L. and Rind,
D.H., (2008) "How Natural and
Anthropogenic Influences Alter
Global and Regional Surface
Temperatures: 1889 to 2006",
Geophysical Research Letters,
Vol. 35, L18701, 16 September,
pp. 6.
http://www.agu.org/pubs/cros
sref/2008/2008GL034864.shtm
l
17.
18. Tipping Points in the Climate System
Lenton et al. (2008) "Tipping Elements
in the Earth's Climate System",
Proceedings of the National Academy of
Science of the United States of Amercia,
Vol. 105, No. 6, 12 February, pp. 1786-
1793.
25. Some global impacts projected for changes in climate
0.5 1 2 3 4 5 5.5ºC
Global mean annual temperature change relative to 1850-1899 ‘pre-industrial’ average (ºC)
Source: IPCC, (2007) "Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth
1
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change"; Technical Summary, Figure TS.9, p. 43.
‘Pre-industrial’ temperature scale added.
31. Australia’s Garnaut Report
“On a balance of probabilities,
the failure of our generation
on climate change mitigation
would lead to consequences
that would haunt humanity
until the end of time.”
39. How to guarantee mitigation looks like a net cost
“The Treasury
work did not
include the
impacts of
climate
change or the
benefits of
Does the reference case
mitigation”
include the economic
consequences of letting White Paper,
climate change run its p. 4-9.
course? No.
40. Who are the extremists?
Can’t say whether a response is ‘responsible’ & ‘measured’ as opposed to ‘extreme’
& ‘reckless’ without considering scale and urgency of the threat.
• Eg. Response to invasion fleet? Is failure to mobilise ‘measured & responsible’ or
reckless?
Who are the ‘extremists’?
• Those arguing we should consider making a fraction of the effort of the WWII
generation to avert a likely irreversible global catastrophe? OR
• Those content to flip a coin to see how we go with more than 2°C warming? (450
parts per million CO2‐eq path gives about 50% chance of staying under 2°C) OR
• Those happy to do nothing and chance the luck of their grandchildren with
whatever the opposite of an ice‐age looks like, with a 4 to 7°C rise?
(5% below 2000 levels by 2020 is on path likely to give 3‐4+ °C warming by 2100.
Much more expensive for next generation to rein it in.)
41. Conclusion: How will we be remembered?
Under strongest government target (24% below 1990 by 2020):
• “Cost”: 1.1% annual real per capita GNP growth to 2050 instead of 1.2%. So we
wait until 2054 to be as rich as we would have been in 2050.
• Australians on average $27,600 ( or 55%) richer than 2008 by 2050
In 1942‐43, a previous generation
was spending equivalent to 40% of
national income fighting World War II.
Our leaders are still treating climate
change like a moderately significant
economic reform, not a national and
global emergency.
Our children and the poor will pay
the price.
Surely we can do better.
42. Resources
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change http://www.ipcc.ch
Real Climate http://www.realclimate.org
Climate Denial Crock of the Week http://www.youtube.com/user/greenman3610
Skeptical science http://www.skepticalscience.com
Q&As on climate change http://tinyurl.com/BPClimateFAQ
Ian Enting on Plimer http://tinyurl.com/PlimerErrors
Climate Action Network Australia http://www.cana.net.au
My pages: http://www.brettparris.com/climate‐change/
http://tinyurl.com/BPClimateFAQ
45. Q. How do we
know CO2 is
contributing?
Water vapour absorbs strongly
near 6.3 μm & 2.7 μm & also at
wavelengths greater than 18
μm. CO2 absorbs around 4.3
μm, only weakly between 8-12
μm and most strongly in the
13-17 μm zone, centred on 15
μm right near the peak of the
longwave radiation spectrum
From about 7.7 - 12 μm, the so
called 'atmospheric window',
absorption by water vapour
and CO2 is weak and other
trace gases such as ozone
(peak around 9.6 μm),
methane (7.7 μm) and nitrous
oxide (7.8 μm) absorb more
strongly, despite low
concentrations.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Atmospheric_Transmission.png
47. Temperatures 1000‐2000
Source: Mann, M.E., et al. (2008) "Proxy-based Reconstructions of Hemispheric and Global Surface Temperature Variations over the Past Two
Millennia", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 105, No. 36, 9 September, pp. 13252-13257.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2008/09/02/0805721105.abstract
48. Q. Isn’t the current change within the
bounds of natural climate change?
Yes for temperature, but rate of
greenhouse gas accumulation may
be unprecedented.
• But – so what?
• Does that mean it’s OK? No. Sea levels 70
metres higher in the past, temps much
higher, oceans oxygen‐depleted – mass
extinctions.
• Past natural warmings do not mean this
one is natural! Do bushfire investigators
automatically rule out arson just because
many fires are started naturally by lightning?
Of course not!
49. Q: Isn’t the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) unreliable?
No.
• IPCC isn’t a ‘small group of UN scientists’
• IPCC doesn’t do its own research – it distills and assesses the published, peer‐
reviewed scientific literature over previous years
• IPCC is as reliable as the peer‐reviewed scientific literature ‐
10s of thousands
of papers published by independent scientists in the top scientific journals.
• A couple of errors in more than 3000 pages of reports.
• IPCC summaries approved line‐by‐line by governments (including major fossil
fuel exporters & users such as the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia, China & Australia)
• There is no major struggle within the scientific community about the causes
of climate change, despite media impressions.
50. Q: Aren’t climate models unreliable?
A: No
• You can’t say anything much about a complex system without a model –
even saying CO2 has no effect. How do they know?
• They’re by no means perfect, but reliable enough.
• There’s not just one model but a dozen or more models produced
independently by different research institutes and while they may disagree on
the details (eg. will how much will rainfall change in a particular region), they
all agree it’s going to get significantly warmer unless greenhouse gas emissions
are reined in.
53. Q. Why should we act first?
A. Australia is in no danger of leading
Source: Garnaut, R., (2011) The
Garnaut Review 2011: Australia in
the Global Response to Climate
Change, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, Melbourne & New York,
xx + 221 pp.
http://www.garnautreview.org.au/
54. Infrastructure challenges
Heat stress – eg. Melbourne’s rail network during heatwaves – much
infrastructure not built to tolerate 50+ C°
Storm & cyclone damage
Financing – increasing difficulties financing carbon‐intensive
investments; ‘fragile’ asset values
Insufficient skilled workers
Electricity grid:
• adaptation to smart grid
• more diverse mix of power sources
• conversion of much of vehicle fleet to electric increasing demand
55. Emissions levels & temperatures
Source: Garnaut, R., (2008) The Garnaut Climate Change Review: Final Report, Cambridge University Press, Melbourne, p. 247.
Meinshausen, M., (2006) "<2°C Trajectories - a Brief Background Note", Paper presented at the KyotoPlus Conference, 28-29
September, Berlin, 11 pp. http://www2.kyotoplus.org/uploads/meinshausen_fin_rev.pdf
56. Uncertainties & risks
Major areas of (downside) uncertainty still exist in the science:
• the average surface temperature change induced by a doubling of CO2,
• the dynamics of the ice sheets,
• the possibilities of large volumes of methane being released from melting
Arctic permafrost and methane deposits below the ocean floors.
Uncertainty in the economics:
• Economic models not good at modelling interactions between innovation,
uncertainty, extreme events, financial and asset markets.
• The base‐case projections for GDP growth under the scenario of doing nothing
and allowing climate change to run its course may seriously underestimate the
cumulative losses to GDP from drought, floods, heatwaves, fires, storm surges
and extreme weather events by 2050.