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2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_naercio menezes
The document discusses education and inclusive growth in Brazil. It summarizes that while access to education has improved substantially, reducing inequality, productivity remains low due to poor education quality. Test scores are below OECD averages and have improved slowly. This skills gap and low innovation rate have led to a decline in Brazil's potential growth rate. The quality of management in public schools is essential to address these issues.
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2013.11.15_OECD-ECLAC Regional Consultation_naercio menezes
- 1. OECD/ECLAC REGIONAL CONSULTATION Inclusive Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean Education and Inclusive Growth in Brazil Naercio Menezes Filho Insper Institute and University of Sao Paulo
- 2. Introduction Labor Market Innovation Poverty EDUCATION Economic Growth Inequality Bolsa-Familia S D Doing Business
- 3. Recent improvements inEducation Net Enrollment Rate 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Fundamental HighSchool College
- 4. Falling education wagedifferentials Growth in differentials wrt 1992 1,25 1,20 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,90 0,85 0,80 1992 1993 1994* 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000* 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Fundamental High School College
- 5. Leading to afall in inequality Income Ratios 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20% richest/20% poorest 10% richest/10% poorest
- 6. Productivity still amajor problem Relative Labor Productivity (GDP per Worker) - 2010 0 20 40 60 80 100 Source: Conference Board (2011) USA France UK Canada Finland Korea Portugal Argentine Mexico Chile South Africa Brazil
- 7. Productivity Growth hasbeen low Productivity Growth - 2005/2010 Source: Conference Board (2011) 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Labor Productivity Real Gdp Employment % Major Emerging Economies Brazil
- 8.
- 9. Explanations • Lowproductivity in the services sector • Poor infra-structure & complicated tax system • Doing business • No international competition -> “close & protect” • Universities distant from firms • Bureaucratic incentives legislation • Old-fashioned managerial practices • Education
- 10. Quality of educationstill a problem PISA 2009 - Share below level 1 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Finland Shanghai-China Canada United Kingdom Korea Singapore United States OECD average Portugal Chile Mexico Uruguay France Turkey Brazil Colombia Argentina Peru Qatar Panama %
- 11. Quality Improving veryslowly 190.6 190.8 181.0 176.3 177.1 182.4 193.5 204.3 209.6 253.2 250.0 246.4 243.4 245.0 239.5 247.4 248.7 250.6 281.9 288.7 280.3 276.7 278.7 271.3 272.9 274.7 273.9 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 4a Série do E.F. 8a Série do E.F. 3a Série do E.M.
- 12. Leading to lowrate of innovations 12 Patents per Population and PISA USA CHE NOR JPN SGP DEU KOR FRA GBR NLD SWE CAN ITA F IN AUS SPA ISR DNK AUT BEL BRA RUS IRL TUR NZL LUX TUN POL MEX CZE SVN GRC PT CHI PAN URY THA L IE ISL HRV QAT COL SVK EST BGR LVA KAZ SRB ARG IDN LTU ROM TUN PER 2,00 0,00 -2,00 -4,00 -6,00 -8,00 -10,00 350 400 450 500 550 600 PISA 2009 - mathematics ln(patents/population) - PCT international applications
- 13. It is Possibleto Change! 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 Quality of Education in Selected Municipalities 2005 2007 2009 2011 SOBRAL FOZ DO IGUACU RIO DE JANEIRO SAO PAULO
- 14.
- 15. Implications of Demography • Education -> more money, need fewer teachers? • Health -> more money, more beds available? • Crime -> less crime? • Labor Market -> less people? • Pensions -> public deficit? • Imigration -> problem or solution?
- 16. Conclusions 1) Accessto schools has improved substantially 2) Led to fall in inequality after a long time 3) But high productivity gap & low growth 4) Skills gap 5) Managerial practices, legislation, competition 6) Leading to low rate of innovations 7) Fall in potential growth rate 8) Management in public schools is essential
- 17. Naercio Menezes Filho Professor of Economics Insper Institute of Education and Research University of Sao Paulo naercioamf@insper.edu.br