Nuevas técnicas para mejorar el riesgo sísmico

1. Explorando nuevas técnicas
para mejorar el riesgo en Costa
Rica
Alejandro Calderón
Equipo de riesgo, Fundación GEM

2. Global Exposure Modelling – Haiti
Employment of state‐of‐the‐art remote sensing

3. 0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0
Probabilityofexcedense
IML
MCF/DUC/H:1
Slight
Moderate
Extensive
Collapse
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0
Probabilityofexcedense
IML
MCF/DUC/H:2
Vulnerability Modelling – Costa Rica

4. Global Risk Modelling – Costa Rica
COM…
IND
8%
RES
76%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Millions
Average annual losses (Residential) Average annual losses (Non‐residential)
Distribution of average annual losses Distribution of AAL per building classes

5. Global Risk Modelling – Costa Rica
Average annual collapses Average annual fatalities
Probable maximum losses (with uncertainty)

6. Interacción con Municipalodad de San José y
Superintendencia de Seguros de Costa Rica (SUGESE)

7. Distribution of bridges in Costa Rica

8. Assessment of damage in the road network
Simulation of earthquake damage considering the Sámara 2012 earthquake
Ground shaking Nivel de dano

9. San Jose City 2011

10. San Jose City 1973

11. San Jose City 2011

12. San Jose City 2050

13. Evolution of AAL for Costa Rica – Total vs BC
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
1973 1984 2000 2011 2025 2050
Millions
W M PC CR OTH ADO Total: 1974-2011 Total: 2025-2050

14. What’s next?
What’s next?