This document summarizes the Caribbean and Central American Seismic Risk Assessment Project. The project uses an integrated framework to model seismic risk by assessing seismic hazard, exposure of the built environment, and physical and socioeconomic vulnerability. Building inventories and fragility curves have been developed for the Dominican Republic to estimate potential earthquake losses and inform risk reduction efforts. Calibration of vulnerability models is important to ensure realistic estimated losses that match observations from past earthquakes.

1. Caribbean and Central American
Seismic Risk Assessment Project
March 21, 2018
Santo Domingo, República
Alejandro Calderón, MSc.

3. • unique approach
• cohesive pathway
• actionable solutions
Scientific
Framework
INTEGRATED SEISMIC RISK
PHYSICAL SEISMIC RISK
Probability of damage and loss to
people and structures due to
earthquakes
EXPOSURE
Elements at risk
PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY
Vulnerability of structures and their
occupants to seismic hazard
SEISMIC HAZARD
Probability of ground shaking
due to earthquakes
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE
Vulnerability of society and economy and their
capacity to cope with earthquake events

4. Characterization of the built-up
environment

5. How is the building stock?
How many people?
How much does it cost?
Where is the building stock?
Characterization of the built-up
environment

6. Where is the building stock? How many
people?
Geographical
position of the
assets derived
from:
ü Census Data
ü Cadaster Data
ü Satellite Imagery

7. Where is the building stock? How many
people?

8. How is the building stock?
Building class derivation:
ü Existing Literature
ü Oficial construction
statistics
ü Visual inspection
ü Structural code
ü Level of informality

9. How is the building stock?

10. How is the building stock?
¿Las construcciones residenciales de su país satisfacen los requisitos establecidos en la normativa sísmica?
Siempre 0
Casi siempre 0
5
12
Rara vez 0
Nunca 0
Otros 0
17
¿Cuál era el sistema estructural más usado en construcción de vivienda antes de la implementación del código sísmico?
Hormigón armado y mampostería en bloque de concreto 5
Mampostería reforzada en bloque concreto 4
Mampostería en bloque concreto 4
Madera, mampostería en concreto (algunas veces) y techos de zinc 2
Combinación de todas las anteriores 1
16
¿Cuál es la forma más común de construcción en hogares de altos recursos económicos (material y sistema estructural)?
Pórticos de hormigón armado y mampostería de bloque de concreto 7
Pórticos de hormigón armado 2
Mampostería reforzada en bloque concreto con diafragma rígico 3
Mampostería confinada y con refuerzo 3
Mixto: Mampostería reforzada con muros de hormigón armado 2
17
¿Cuál es la forma más común de construcción en hogares de moderados recursos económicos (material y sistema estructural)?
Mampostería sin reforzar (bloque concreto) 2
Mampostería confinada (bloque concreto) 4
Mampostería reforzada (bloque concreto) con diafragma rígido 7
Mampostería bloque concreto 4
17
¿Cuál es la forma más común de construcción en hogares de bajos recursos económicos (material y sistema estructural)?
Madera y mampostería no reforzada en bloque de concreto 3
Madera y techos de zinc 3
Mampostería no reforzada y techo de zinc 2
Mampostería reforzada en bloque de concreto y losas flexibles 4
Mampostería confinada en bloque de concreto 1
4
17
En su país, las viviendas en mampostería (albañilería) son generalmente
Mampostería
reforzada dúctil
Mampostería
NO reforzada
Hogares de bajos recursos económicos 0 8 1 9 12
Hogares de moderados recursos económicos 7 4 4 6 1
Hogares de altos recursos económicos 8 0 10 1 0
No aplica 2 5 2 1 4
República Dominicana
VIVIENDA
Casi siempre en viviendas de altos/moderados ingresos económicos,
y en algunos casos en viviendas de bajos ingresos económicos
En algunos casos en viviendas de altos/moderados ingresos
económicos, y rara vez en viviendas de bajos ingresos económicos
Mampostería reforzada
NO dúctil
Mampostería confinada
dúctil
Mampostería confinada
NO dúctil
Madera, mampostería en bloque de concreto (sin reforzar o con poco
refuerzo), y techo en planchas de zinc (alucin)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 2 4 6 8
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mampostería
reforzada dúctil
Mampostería
reforzada NO
dúctil
Mampostería
confinada dúctil
Mampostería
confinada NO
dúctil
Mampostería NO
reforzada
Hogares de bajos recursos económicos
Hogares de moderados recursos económicos
Hogares de altos recursos económicos
No aplica

11. How is the building stock?

12. How is the building stock?

13. Building class derivation:
ü Existing Literature
ü Oficial construction
statistics
ü Visual inspection
ü Structural code
ü Level of informality
How is the building stock?

14. Building class derivation:
ü Existing Literature
ü Oficial construction
statistics
ü Visual inspection
ü Structural code
ü Level of informality
How is the building stock?

15. Number of
Dwellings
Number of
Buildings
Mapping
Scheme
Structural
Attributes
Building Classification and Distribution

16. Building Classification and Distribution

17. Final Building Class Definition
ü Material: CR
ü Type: LWALL + DUC
ü Height: 1
ü Avg. Area: 51 m²
ü Avg. Cost: $ 22,593

18. Estimation of capital
stock:
ü Central Bank Data
ü Government Housing
Programs
ü Construction statistics
How much does it cost?

19. Building Inventories:
Residencial – Comercial - Industrial

20. Directory of Establishments – Dominican
Republic

21. Exposure results:
ü Total building classes: +86

22. • Number of buildings
• Area of a building
typology
• Economic value
– Structural components
– Non-structural
components
– Contents
– Business interruption
• Occupants
– Day/Night/Transit
Current exposure modelling capabilities

23. Exposure results for the Dominican Republic
RES
60%
COM
26%
IND
14%
210
USD Billion

24. RES
60%
COM
26%
IND
14%
210
USD Billion
Exposure results for the Dominican Republic

25. Exposure Results for the Dominican Republic
RES
64%
COM
23%
IND
13%
960
USD Billion

26. Ground shaking Exposure
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Probabilityofexceedance
Peak ground acceleration (g)
Slight
Moderate
Extensive
Collapse
Fragilidad
Estimation of earthquake losses

27. Seismic Intensity
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Probabilityofexceedance
Peak ground acceleration (g)
Slight
Moderate
Extensive
Collapse
Estimation of earthquake losses

28. Using the characteristics of past seismic events
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Probabilityofexceedance
Peak ground acceleration (g)
Slight
Moderate
Extensive
Collapse
Ground shaking Exposure
Estimation of earthquake losses

29. Estimation of earthquake losses
Using the characteristics of past seismic events
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Probabilityofexceedance
Peak ground acceleration (g)
Slight
Moderate
Extensive
Collapse
Ground shaking Exposure
Damage Loss

30. MDOF
Simplification of 3D or 2D structures into a SDOF
lent SDOF system can be either elastic or inelastic de-
n the chosen inelastic analysis method (see Section
tation of the pushover curve and the subsequent deter-
the properties of the equivalent SDOF system are thor-
cussed in Section 7.2.
bal deformations ∆
Detailed
model
nically
m*
h*k*
Equivalent SDOF
system
0
1
2
3
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
Global deformation ∆ [m]
HorizontalforceV[MN]
ve“
stic
ationship
ntals of Seismic Design”
Substitute SDoF structure
ive displacement
gn displacement)
ive mass
ive height ( ) ( )¦¦ ∆∆=
n
ii
n
iiie
mHmH /
( ) ( )¦¦
==
∆∆=∆
n
i
ii
n
i
iid
mm
11
2
/
( ) d
n
i
iie
mm ∆∆= ¦
=
/
1
He
me
He
me ∆d
∆i
∆i-1
∆3
∆2
∆1
He
me
He
me ∆d
∆i
∆i-1
∆3
∆2
∆1
SDOF
Definition of structural models for vulnerability
analysis
−0.25 −0.2 −0.15 −0.1 −0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
−0.5
−0.4
−0.3
−0.2
−0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Sd [m]
Sa[g]
sdof
pinching4
Hysteresis model

31. o +100 peer-reviewed publications
o +20 technical reports
o +500 fragility functions and capacity curves
Definition of structural models for vulnerability
analysis
Experimental data Numerical modelling

32. Vulnerability Modelling – Costa Rica
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0
Probability of excedense
MCF/DUC/H:1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0
Probability of excedense
MCF/DUC/H:2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0
Probability of excedense
CR+PC/DUC/H:1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0
Probability of excedense
CR+PC/DLO/H:1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0
Probability of excedense
W+WLI/DLO/H:1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0
Probability of excedense
MCF/DLO/H:1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0
Probability of excedense
UNK
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Probability of Exceedance
MCF/DUC/H:3-6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Probability of Exceedance
MUR+ADO/DNO/H:1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
Probability of Exceedance
CR+CIP/DUH/H:6-12
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
Probability of Exceedance
CR+CIP/DUH/H:3-6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
ProbabilityofExceedance
CR+CIP/DLO/H:3-6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
ProbabilityofExceedance
CR/LINF+DUH/H:2-6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
ProbabilityofExceedance
CR+CIP/LFM+DLO/H:1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Probability of Exceedance
CR+CIP/LFM+DLO/H:2-6
Slight
Moderate
Extensive
Collpase

33. The need for vulnerability calibration/verification
”Often, all the model ingredients look fine, but their combination
makes no sense. Calibration is key”
Alex Allmann, Heard of GeoRisk at Munich Re
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Model A Model B Model C Model D Model E
Number of collapses
Thousands
Observed
Estimated collapses for adobe buildings due to the 2007 M8.7 Pisco event

34. Calibration process for Guatemala Fragility Curves
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
V1 V2 V3 V4 V5
The need for vulnerability calibration/verification

35. Using the characteristics of past seismic events
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
Probabilityofexceedance
Peak ground acceleration (g)
Slight
Moderate
Extensive
Collapse
Hazard ExposureFragility & vulnerability
Estimation of earthquake losses

36. Vs30 derived from
topography and
geological units
Estimation of earthquake losses

37. Earthquake event–based risk analisys
Hazard Model

38. Synthetic Catalogue
Earthquake event–based risk analisys

39. 0
4
8
12
1 10 100 1000
Loss(USD)Billions
Return Period (years)
Average Annual Loss
Exceedance Loss Curve
Earthquake event–based risk analisys

40. Loss exceedance curves – the Caribbean

41. Loss exceedance curves – the Caribbean (%)

42. Loss exceedance curves – Central America

43. Loss exceedance curves – Central America (%)

44. Average Annual Losses
0.01%
0.03%
0.03%
0.06%
0.07%
0.10%
0.11%
0.12%
0.14%
0.25%
0.29%
0.31%
0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40%
Belize
Barbados
Trinidad & Tobago
Panama
Jamaica
R. Dominicana
Honduras
Costa Rica
Haiti
Nicaragua
Guatemala
Salvador
Average Annual Loss Ration (AALR)
0.17
2
5
33
23
145
43
105
28
76
341
155
- 100 200 300
Belize
Barbados
Trinidad & Tobago
Panama
Jamaica
R. Dominicana
Honduras
Costa Rica
Haiti
Nicaragua
Guatemala
Salvador
Millions
Average Annual Loss (AAL)

45. Event–Based Results

46. 0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
Losses disaggregated by building class - Guatemala
Earthquake event–based risk results

47. Earthquake Risk Profile for Panama

48. Caribbean and Central American Earthquake Risk Profiles

49. Dissimination and validation model, datasets and results

50. Dissimination and validation model, datasets and results

51. Muchas gracias