GEOG5839.22, Paleofloods

•

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Scott St. George

Education

INSURED LOSSES
DUE TO FLOODS EXCEEDED

$6.4 B
IN 2010.

Source: Swiss Re

WORLDWIDE

11,027
PEOPLE WERE
KILLED BY FLOODS.

Source: Swiss Re

Annual losses* due to ﬂoods in the United States 2005

1993

1972

1927

Source: National Weather Service
* adjusted for inﬂation

The 100-year ﬂood refers to a ﬂood that has a 1% chance
of being equaled or exceeded in any single year.

“ NG ”
O
The 100-year ﬂood has come and gone, so, by all rights,

R
Tucsonans should enjoy another century of great Southwest weather.

W
Metropolitan Tucson Convention and Visitor’s Bureau
Sent immediately a er a severe ﬂood

Paleoﬂood hydrology uses physical evidence le behind
on the landscape to make inferences about past ﬂoods
that were not directly observed or recorded by humans.

Photograph: David Snyder

Slackwater deposits Fine-grained sediments laid down by ﬂoodwaters

“
The forts now stand like a castle of romance in the midst of
an ocean of deep contending currents, the water extending
for at least a mile behind them, and they are thereby only
approachable by boats and canoes.”
Francis Heron
Hudson Bay Company, 1826

St.. George and Rannie, Canadian Water Resources Journal, 2003

scarring

microclimatology

injury

“ﬂood rings”

Reading
St. George (2010), Tree rings as paleoﬂood and
paleostage indicators. In Stoﬀel et al., (eds.),
Tree Rings and Natural Hazards.

Photograph: Mark’s Postcards from Beloit

FLOOD SCARS
The timing of the ﬂood can be determined by counting the number
of rings between the scar and the outside ring, and the height of
the scar represents the minimum elevation of high water.

Floods can damage trees by tilting or partial uprooting
or can uproot them completely, causing their death.

Winnipeg

The name Winnipeg is a transcription of
the western Cree word wi-nipe-k meaning
"muddy waters"

Source: U.S. Coast Guard, Lt. Brendan Evans

Grand Forks, North Dakota 1997 ﬂood and ﬁre

How large can Red River ﬂoods get and how o en
do the large ones occur?

Are there geological processes that may be
changing the Red River ﬂood hazard?

What are the geological controls that govern the
character of Red River ﬂooding?

Instrumental and historical estimates of major Red River ﬂoods

Source: St. George and Nielsen, Geographie Physique et Quaternaire, 2002

In hydrology, ﬂood observations reported as having occurred
above some threshold are known as censored data sets.

Photograph: USGS

1979 Red River ﬂood Drayton, North Dakota

St. George et al. (2002), Tree-Ring Research

350 years of Red River ﬂoods

Source: St. George and Nielsen, The Holocene, 2003

TREES AS PALEOFLOOD INDICATORS
Strengths and limitations

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The decadal character of northern California's winter precipitation

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How long do we need to watch a river before its behavior holds no more surprises? In this country, instrumental measurements of river stage and discharge stretch back a century or more, but this observed history still provides only a rough guide to the risks of future extreme floods. In this lecture, I’ll outline how paleoflood hydrology expands our perspective on river history by combining historical, botanical, and geological evidence of earlier (and ofttimes unknown) floods. And I’ll explain how we can interpret those physical clues left behind by ancient floods to improve hazard assessments for at-risk communities, support decisions about flood infrastructure, and investigate the long-term effects of climate or land-use changes on flooding. Because what has happened before can happen again, most everyone near a river would profit by keeping a longer memory of old floods.

Don’t call it a comeback: Studying ancient floods to prepare for future hazards

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Many of the decisions we make about environmental issues are based on experience. Whether we're setting limits for the use of scarce resources, estimating the risks posed by natural hazards, or deciding how to manage protected areas, our plans for the future often reflect our understanding of the past. The problem is that, when it comes to the environment, our society has a fairly short memory. In this presentation, Dr. St. George will discuss how the study of ancient trees is expanding our perspective on the natural history of the northern Plains and helping to answer questions about what the future may hold for Minnesota's environment.

IonE Frontiers, Through The Trees

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In their study of tree rings from the Chemnitz Fossil Forest (Germany), Luthardt and Rößler (2017) claim to identify a regular near-11-yr cyclicity in growth, and present that pattern as evidence of the influence of the Schwabe solar cycle (Usokin and Mursula, 2003) on climate and forest productivity during the early Permian. If correctly interpreted, these fossil tree rings would indicate the sunspot cycle was the dominant influence on interannual variability in Earth’s climate during this period and that it has been a consistent aspect of our Sun’s behavior for at least the past 300 m.y. We argue the fossil tree-ring record from Chemnitz does not constitute reliable evidence of solar activity during the Permian because the individual tree-ring sequences are not correctly aligned (dendrochronologically dated) and, as a result, the mean ring-width composite is not a meaningful estimate of year-to-year variations in tree growth in this ancient forest.

Solar ghosts: Weighing the evidence for sunspot cycles in fossil trees

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The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ring

Scott St. George

Southern Manitoba is one of the most flood-prone regions in Canada, with the Red River of the North being the cause of most significant floods. The realization that the then-recent 1950 flood disaster was dwarfed by the historical 1826 flood led Canadian government officials to set an unusually high design standard for the Red River floodway, a 48-km long diversion built in the 1960s to protect the provincial capital of Winnipeg. And after paleoflood research confirmed new evidence of the 1826 flood, that event was cited as the main justification for expanding the Red River floodway, a $668 billion CAN infrastructure project that began in 2010. Without these insights from historical and paleoflood research, it’s almost certain flood risk estimates would have been unrealistically low and Winnipeg would have adopted a lesser level of flood protection. Because widespread Euro-American settlement in the Pembina Territory (the present-day Red River basin within the United States) did not occur until the 1870s, there are no historical accounts that indicate whether the 1826 flood was also so severe in North Dakota or Minnesota. As a result, the 1997 flood, which was nearly 1.5 times larger than any other previous flood in the US gage record, overwhelmed the dikes protecting Grand Forks and East Grand Forks. By having a deeper understanding of the history of flooding, communities are better able to anticipate future floods, make sound decisions about flood protection and migration, and protect people and their property more effectively.

The societal value of historical and paleoflood research in Manitoba, Canada

Scott St. George

Measurements of tree-ring widths are the most widely-distributed and best replicated source of surrogate environmental information on the planet, and are one of the main archives used to estimate changes in regional and global climate during the past several centuries or millennia. Because the Northern Hemisphere ring-width network is now so large, it is more crucial than ever to ensure our understanding of tree-environment relations is not influenced by decisions to include or exclude certain records. It may be the case that a particular set of ring-width records are, for whatever reason, more tightly coupled to a particular climate factor than other records from the same region or species and, as a result, may be superior estimators of that factor’s past behavior. At the same time, it is known that selecting a small number of predictors from a large pool of potential candidates increases the likelihood of a Type I error. That effect may be particularly relevant to dendroclimatology because the total number of available ring-width records is often much larger than the number of records used to produce reconstructions of large-scale climate features. As an initial step, it would be helpful if paleoclimate reconstructions derived from tree rings described more explicitly the criteria used to select ring-width records as potential predictors and specified those records excluded by that screening. By comparing ring-width chronologies and their relations with climate against the standard set by thousands of records across the hemisphere, we should be better able to distinguish climate signals from proxy noise and produce more accurate reconstructions of climate during the late Holocene.

Guarding against false discovery in large-scale dendroclimatology

Scott St. George

Every year, trees in temperate and boreal forests go through a cycle of dormancy and activity that produces a new layer of tracheids, fibers and other woody cells around their stem. The end result of this process - a tree ring - is one of the most obvious signs in nature documenting the passage of time and the character of that year’s weather. Measurements of tree-ring widths are the most widely-distributed and best replicated source of surrogate environmental information on the planet and are one of the main archives used to estimate changes in regional and global climate during the past several centuries or millennia. In this lecture, I describe the structure and characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere tree-ring width network, and outline how these data are linked with key aspects of local climate and the global climate system. More generally, by describing the characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere tree-ring width network and the diversity of its relations with varying aspects of the global climate system, this presentation highlights the breadth and quality of environmental information that may be recovered from the width of annual growth layers in temperate and boreal trees.

Seeing the Forest for the Tree(Ring)s

Scott St. George

Strong variance at decadal and multidecadal timescales is a common feature of most tree-ring width records. But does this aspect of tree growth exhibit such long-memory behavior due to biology, climate, or some combination of the two factors? Understanding the origins of this behavior is crucial for efforts to evaluate the causes of decadal variability in the climate system. Presentation at Johann Gutenburg University (Mainz) on February 16, 2017.

Decadal variability in tree rings

Scott St. George

Background/Question/Methods Under environmental stress, boreal and temperate trees will occasionally form a discontinuous layer of wood about their stem, a condition described as a locally-absent (or “missing”) growth ring. Absent rings can potentially cause errors in tree-ring dates and dendroclimatic reconstructions but the frequency, distribution and controls of these features are not well understood at large spatial scales. Furthermore, the recent claim that the Northern Hemisphere tree-ring network contains multiple chronological errors caused by widespread but unrecognized locally-absent rings has been difficult to evaluate because it is not known where or when absent rings have occurred across boreal and temperate forests or what environmental factors cause the development of spatially-extensive absent rings. Here we present a synthesis of locally-absent rings across the Northern Hemisphere during the last millennium based on 2,359 publicly-available tree ring-width records. Results/Conclusions Over the entire dataset, one locally-absent ring was observed for every 240 visible rings. More than half of all records (1,296 of 2,359) did not contain a single absent ring. Absent rings were extremely uncommon at high latitudes; poleward of 50°N, the absent:visible ratio increased from 1:240 to 1:2,500. Absent rings were not widespread during the growing seasons that followed the four largest stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection events of the last millennium, including A.D. 1259 and the “Year Without a Summer” in A.D. 1816 or during the coldest year in the Northern Hemisphere in the last 1,500 years. Because these features have occurred so rarely in high-latitude and high-elevation tree ring-width records, the argument that paleotemperature estimates based on these data contain chronological errors due to unrecognized absent rings is not consistent with field observations. If however the rate of absent-ring formation were to increase in forests outside of the American Southwest, that behavior would represent a response to environmental stress that is without precedent over the last millennium.

Absent rings are rare in Northern Hemisphere forests outside the American Sou...

Scott St. George

Even after more than a century of coordinated monitoring, instrumental weather observations are still too short to adequately constrain decadal or multidecadal behavior in the Earth’s climate system. Leading climatologists and climate modelers have called for the wider application of high-resolution proxy records to decadal variability and prediction studies, and our community has responded by producing new paleoclimate products that specifically target this type of ‘intermediate-term’ behavior. But we now also know our medium changes that message: the biological and geological systems that encode climate information into natural archives often also alter the original ‘input’, usually due to either seasonal filtering or non-climatic persistence. In this talk, we’ll discuss some of the challenges inherent to the use of high-resolution proxies to study decadal or multi-decadal climate variability, and suggest strategies that might clarify how climate acts on those timescales. And we’ll also present a new theoretical framework that could help paleo-scientists evaluate competing ideas about the causes of decadal- or multi-decadal events known to have occurred during the past one or two millennia.

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These visuals were prepared to support a string quartet performance and panel on climate change at Northwestern University in February 2106. A well-designed graphic can help audiences to quickly understand the main message embedded within a complex set of climate data and to retain those ideas longer than they would have if they were conveyed by words alone. But the visual aids used regularly by climate scientists also have their limitations: they are most easily understood by people who are already fluent in technical illustrations; they're usually static and sometimes do not tell an obvious story; and for many, they don't elicit a strong emotional response. Music, by contrast, is inherently narrative and is known to exert a powerful influence on human emotions. Because of this, sonification — the transformation of data into acoustic signals — may have considerable promise as a tool to enhance the communication of climate science. Daniel Crawford and Scott St. George report on a collaboration between scientists and artists that uses music to transmit the evidence of climate change in an engaging and visceral way.

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So much of what we know about the Earth’s climate during the past two millennia comes from tree rings. Information gleaned from the physical or chemical properties of growth rings in trees have allowed us to extend hemispheric-scale temperature records back by several centuries, construct annual maps of drought severity that span several continents, and generate proxy estimates for many of the leading modes within the climate system. The theoretical foundation that underpins these products — and most others in dendroclimatology — was fully mature by the early 1990s and set out in detail by Cook and Kairiukstis in their seminal book, ‘Methods in Dendrochronology’. Most of the core analytical methods used to infer past climate from tree rings that appear in this reference (as well as prior works) depend on two concepts in particular: first, the idea that patterns common to many trees at many sites are more likely to be related to synoptic-scale climate variability (the principle of replication), and second, the notion that the most useful tree-ring records are found in forests where growth is particularly sensitive to a specific aspect of local climate (the principle of site selection). But because of (i) the gradual expansion, extension, and in-filling of the global tree-ring network and (ii) the emphasis given to atypical or even unique site-specific signals by some novel reconstruction methods, it is a point of debate within our community, at least implicitly, whether these principles remain valid. This presentation will review several recent studies that illustrate the possible advantages offered by a disregard for the usual ‘rules’ of dendroclimatology but will also discuss the potential pitfalls of placing too much emphasis on apparently optimal records. We hope this talk will encourage the sharing of ideas on how best to extract climate information from the ever-expanding network of tree-ring records across our planet and help open a discussion on the relevance of our standard theoretical framework to contemporary global dendroclimatology.

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Much of what we know regarding variations in Earth's climate during the past millennium comes from tree rings. But tree rings, like other proxies, attenuate some climate signals but amplify others, and their fidelity at longer timescales is difficult to gage. Even though dendroclimatology is well-established, questions remain about the climate clues encoded in tree rings — particularly at decadal-to-centennial timescales.

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A good talk can open the doors to new collaborations, increase your chances of funding success, and make it more likely other people will respond to your ideas. But scientific presentations are too often confusing, boring, and overstuffed. Here are some suggestions, based on our experience as speakers, audience members, and presentation trainers, that we hope will make your next conference talk or seminar more enjoyable, engaging and effective.

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GEOG5839.22, Paleofloods

1. November 27 Paleoﬂoods

2. Source: AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

3. INSURED LOSSES DUE TO FLOODS EXCEEDED $6.4 B IN 2010. Source: Swiss Re

4. WORLDWIDE 11,027 PEOPLE WERE KILLED BY FLOODS. Source: Swiss Re

5. Annual losses* due to ﬂoods in the United States 2005 1993 1972 1927 Source: National Weather Service * adjusted for inﬂation

6. PAST BEHAVIOR FUTURE RISKS

7. Photograph: skooksie

8. “100-year ﬂood”

9. The 100-year ﬂood refers to a ﬂood that has a 1% chance of being equaled or exceeded in any single year.

10. “ NG ” O The 100-year ﬂood has come and gone, so, by all rights, R Tucsonans should enjoy another century of great Southwest weather. W Metropolitan Tucson Convention and Visitor’s Bureau Sent immediately a er a severe ﬂood

11.

12.

13. Paleoﬂood hydrology uses physical evidence le behind on the landscape to make inferences about past ﬂoods that were not directly observed or recorded by humans.

14. Photograph: David Snyder Slackwater deposits Fine-grained sediments laid down by ﬂoodwaters

15. “ The forts now stand like a castle of romance in the midst of an ocean of deep contending currents, the water extending for at least a mile behind them, and they are thereby only approachable by boats and canoes.” Francis Heron Hudson Bay Company, 1826 St.. George and Rannie, Canadian Water Resources Journal, 2003

16. scarring microclimatology injury “ﬂood rings”

17. Reading St. George (2010), Tree rings as paleoﬂood and paleostage indicators. In Stoﬀel et al., (eds.), Tree Rings and Natural Hazards.

18. FLOOD SCARS

19. Photograph: Mark’s Postcards from Beloit

20. Photograph: NDSU Ag Comm

21. FLOOD SCARS The timing of the ﬂood can be determined by counting the number of rings between the scar and the outside ring, and the height of the scar represents the minimum elevation of high water.

22. INJURY

23. Floods can damage trees by tilting or partial uprooting or can uproot them completely, causing their death.

24. MICROCLIMATE Source: Alex Drainville

25.

26. Photograph: Alex Source

27. Source: ouelle e001.com

28. FLOOD RINGS

29.

30. Winnipeg Manitoba

31. Winnipeg The name Winnipeg is a transcription of the western Cree word wi-nipe-k meaning "muddy waters"

32. Source: Greg Brooks

33.

34. Source: U.S. Coast Guard, Lt. Brendan Evans

35. Source: Greg Brooks

36. Grand Forks, North Dakota 1997 ﬂood and ﬁre

37.

38. Source: Ma hew Bietz

39. Lake Agassiz

40.

41. How large can Red River floods get and how o en do the large ones occur? Are there geological processes that may be changing the Red River flood hazard? What are the geological controls that govern the character of Red River flooding?

42. Instrumental and historical estimates of major Red River ﬂoods

43. Erik Nielsen Manitoba Geological Survey

44.

45. Source: Greg Brooks

46.

47.

48.

49. 2008

50. 1875

51. Source: Erik Nielsen

52. 54 Source: Erik Nielsen

53.

54.

55.

56.

57.

58. “ The forts now stand like a castle of romance in the midst of an ocean of deep contending currents, the water extending for at least a mile behind them, and they are thereby only approachable by boats and canoes.” Francis Heron Hudson Bay Company, 1826 St. George and Rannie, Canadian Water Resources Journal, 2003

59.

60. Source: St. George and Nielsen, Geographie Physique et Quaternaire, 2002

61. In hydrology, ﬂood observations reported as having occurred above some threshold are known as censored data sets.

62.

63. Photograph: USGS 1979 Red River ﬂood Drayton, North Dakota

64. Source: St. George and Nielsen, Geographie Physique et Quaternaire, 2002

65.

66. St. George et al. (2002), Tree-Ring Research

67. How large can Red River floods get and how o en do the large ones occur? Are there geological processes that may be changing the Red River flood hazard? What are the geological controls that govern the character of Red River flooding?

68. 350 years of Red River ﬂoods Source: St. George and Nielsen, The Holocene, 2003

69. TREES AS PALEOFLOOD INDICATORS Strengths and limitations

70. Photograph: David Snyder

71. Redrawn from Stahle (1990)

72. Source: Steﬀano A ardi

73. scarring microclimatology injury “ﬂood rings”

74. GEOG5839 XT C L AS S NE

GEOG5839.22, Paleofloods

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