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Tim Kreytak
Co-founder, CEO, Ironside Group
Dan Kernaghan
Technical Director, Pitney Bowes
Providing context, accuracy, and relevance to location through
 Software – Spatial, Geocoding, Address Validation, Routing, and more
 Data – Global Streets, Property Attributes, Boundaries, Demographics
 Services – ETL, Integration, Analytics, Machine Learning, AI, and more
Every Address has a Location but not every Location has an Address
We leverage our experience with addresses to enrich them with 9100+
attributes that describe a location
Typical Database Options
 Traditional – RDBMS
 Generally use GIS retrieval
 Partitioned and indexed
 Updates are direct replacement
Big Data equalizes data access
- and the balance of fast ingestion versus fast retrieval
Traditional processing
GIS Database
Big Data processing
File/Data Frame
Typical Big Data Options
• Traditional – HDFS
• Sharded – Hbase, Phoenix,
Redshift, Big Table, etc, etc.
• Partitioned by location, time
• Updates – Defined as SCD Type II
Latitude-
Longitude
Advantages
• Hierarchical
• Easy to generate
Disadvantages
• Not tied to Address
• 2-dimensional
• Not always accurate
Geohash
Advantages
• Very Accurate
• Hierarchical
• Easy to generate
• Easy to partition
Disadvantages
• Not tied to Address
Pitney Bowes
pbKey
Advantages
• Persistent
• Hierarchical
• Tied to Address
• Unique
Disadvantages
• Limited Coverage
TIME
DEMOGRAPHICSUSER PROFILE
CONTEXT
PSYCHOGRAPHICS
BEHAVIORAL
AUDIENCE PERSONA
HOUSEHOLD TYPE
AFFLUENCE
LIFESTAGE
BRAND AFFINITIES
TECHNOGRAPHICS
APP USAGE
+ LIFESTYLE
+
+
+
+
DEVICES
Push to Cloud Native
Replacing persistent Hadoop with Ephemeral Processing
 Apache Spark, Databricks
 Amazon EMR
 Google Cloud DataProc
Movement toward Elastic Processing
 Containers: Docker, Apache Mesos, LXC, OpenVZ…
 Managers: Kubernetes, Nomad, Swarm…
 Microservices
And don’t forget about Openshift, Pivotal Cloud Foundry, DC/OS…..
We help our clients use data to make
better decisions about their business.
7Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2018 Ironside Group, LLC
Customer Analytics &
Single Customer View
Data Visualization,
Dashboards & Reporting
Financial Planning,
Forecasting & Analysis
Data Science &
Machine Learning
Data Integration &
Warehousing
Data Governance &
Master Data Management
Data Quality &
3rd Party Data Enrichment
Data Engineering &
App Dev / Integration
Decision Support
Experience Design
Data & Analytics
Strategy
Data & Analytics
Governance
Data & Analytics
Architecture
Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC 8
Using data to inform and automate
decision making in pursuit of
better business outcomes.
9
Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2018 Ironside Group, LLC 10
Grow Revenues
• Increase Existing
• Create Net New
Maximize Efficiency
• Decision Support
• Decision Automation
Understand and
Minimize Risk
• Forecasting & Planning
• Predict or Prevent Fraud
In business, data science is a means for business process optimization, and
business leaders can, and should, think of it as a powerful tool to that end.
11
Which
action
should I
take?
Reinforcement
Learning
How much
or how
many?
Regression
How do
these things
group
together?
Clustering /
Recommendation
Which
category is
this in?
Classification
Which one
of these is
not like the
others?
Anomaly
Detection
Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2018 Ironside Group, LLC
12Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC
Data &
Information
What data is required?
What data do we have
today?
What data might we need
to acquire?
How much history?
Of what quality?
Analysis
Who wants to know?
What do we need to
know?
What do we wish we could
know?
What methods and tools
can we avail?
Decisions &
Actions
What are the “business
moments”?
What decisions are made?
How are they made?
Who is deciding / acting?
How often / many?
What are the levers of
change?
Goals &
Outcomes
What are our business
goals?
What are the activities that
will lead to success?
What will prevent success?
What is the data
opportunity?
Can we quantify value of
this goal?
Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC 13
What else about the
consumer, outside of my data,
correlates to value?
What if I could estimate the
customer’s affluence and
spending power before they
ever transact with me?
How does traffic and drive
time impact our access to the
market both broadly and
individually?
How does the presence of
accessible competitors impact
consumer frequency and
wallet share?
How do elements such as
weather impact performance
of our products and services?
Would I interact differently
with a given consumer with
this information at the outset?
Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC 14
Model Target Definition
The target for this model is Summer Revenue which is estimated by the number of
reviews a listing received in summer months multiplied by the daily price and then
multiplied by 4 (based on assumption that average stay is 4 days).
Training dataset = 1070 listings in greater Boston
Assumptions:
1. 100% of visitors left a review
2. An average stay in summer = 4 days
3. The price listed is the average daily price in the summer months
4. Availability for summer months does not change year over year
Filters:
1. Had bookings in 2017 and 2018
2. Had availability for 2019
3. Addresses could be enriched
Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC 15
Feature
Property Attributes:
 property type
 max # of people accommodates
 # bathrooms
 # bedrooms
 bed type
 room type
 property description (text)
 neighborhood description (text)
 amenities (flag/dummy code per
amenity, composited created for
“handicap accessible” and “family
friendly”)
Host Attributes:
• # listings
• host is superhost
• picture available
• prior reviews
• host is local
• host in same neighborhood
• host identity verified
• host description (length)
• policies:
• cancellation policy strictness
• requires guest profile picture
• house rules (text and length of
text)
Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC 16
Location Attributes:
 distance to nearest public transit
 CAMEO segment
 financial stress of city block (ranked within state and nation)
 presence of children (ranked within state and nation)
 population of city block
 households in city block
History:
 summer availability (days marked as available for summer 2019 calendar)
 2016 and 2017 summer revenue
© 2019 Ironside Group, LLC - Client Confidential 17
Location data such as distance to
airports, Amtrak, highway exits, mbta
stations, block population/density
measures and block socio-economic
measures surfaced as some of the
most important predictors of
summer demand
18
DataRobot leaderboard:
● Ranks 50+ models in performance
● Balances performance and accuracy
● Performs intensive cross validation to
protect against overfitting
● Allows manual retraining of specific
models/blueprints on various feature sets
19
Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC
Time:
Derived from
PB Accurate
GeoCoder and
Address location
information --
most impactful
Model Feature
Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC 20
ANALYTICAL
SKILLS &
TOOLSDOMAIN
KNOWLEDGE
BROADER,
COMPLETE &
ACCURATE DATA
Demand for Better Analytics
Analytics Supply
Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2018 Ironside Group, LLC 21
Law Enforcement
• Where should I locate
officers to prevent
crime?
Retailer
• Which stores should I
open or close to
maximize profits?
Manufacturer
• What ingredient
amounts should we use
to produce the highest
quality foam?
Utility Company
• What is the probability
that a contractor
damages a gas line
while digging?
Health Insurer
• Which of these health
insurance claims can I
subrogate to the auto
insurer?
University
• How much is this
person likely to donate
to our endowment?
Real Estate
• How many employees is
this company going to
relocate across the
globe in the next 12
months?
Mortgage Bank
• What is the probability
that this mortgage is
going to default or be
pre-paid?
Insurer
• What procedures were
performed in these
health insurance claims?
Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2018 Ironside Group, LLC 22
Business Function,
Process, Role,
Persona etc.
Frequency of
Occurrence
Number of Users
Technology
Dependencies
Skill
Dependencies
Data Sources
Data Quality &
Completeness
Cost & Effort to
Develop
Cost to Operate
and Sustain
Time to Value
Steering
Committee Ranking
Executive
Sponsorship
Demographics Business Impact Data & Analytics Qualitative
Important?
Unsatisfied?
Tangible?
Lucrative?
Cost

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Data Con LA 2019 - Pitney Bowes methodologies to Organize, Enrich and Analyze data from a location perspective by Dan Kernaghan & Tim Kreytak

  • 1. Tim Kreytak Co-founder, CEO, Ironside Group Dan Kernaghan Technical Director, Pitney Bowes
  • 2. Providing context, accuracy, and relevance to location through  Software – Spatial, Geocoding, Address Validation, Routing, and more  Data – Global Streets, Property Attributes, Boundaries, Demographics  Services – ETL, Integration, Analytics, Machine Learning, AI, and more Every Address has a Location but not every Location has an Address We leverage our experience with addresses to enrich them with 9100+ attributes that describe a location
  • 3. Typical Database Options  Traditional – RDBMS  Generally use GIS retrieval  Partitioned and indexed  Updates are direct replacement Big Data equalizes data access - and the balance of fast ingestion versus fast retrieval Traditional processing GIS Database Big Data processing File/Data Frame Typical Big Data Options • Traditional – HDFS • Sharded – Hbase, Phoenix, Redshift, Big Table, etc, etc. • Partitioned by location, time • Updates – Defined as SCD Type II
  • 4. Latitude- Longitude Advantages • Hierarchical • Easy to generate Disadvantages • Not tied to Address • 2-dimensional • Not always accurate Geohash Advantages • Very Accurate • Hierarchical • Easy to generate • Easy to partition Disadvantages • Not tied to Address Pitney Bowes pbKey Advantages • Persistent • Hierarchical • Tied to Address • Unique Disadvantages • Limited Coverage
  • 5. TIME DEMOGRAPHICSUSER PROFILE CONTEXT PSYCHOGRAPHICS BEHAVIORAL AUDIENCE PERSONA HOUSEHOLD TYPE AFFLUENCE LIFESTAGE BRAND AFFINITIES TECHNOGRAPHICS APP USAGE + LIFESTYLE + + + + DEVICES
  • 6. Push to Cloud Native Replacing persistent Hadoop with Ephemeral Processing  Apache Spark, Databricks  Amazon EMR  Google Cloud DataProc Movement toward Elastic Processing  Containers: Docker, Apache Mesos, LXC, OpenVZ…  Managers: Kubernetes, Nomad, Swarm…  Microservices And don’t forget about Openshift, Pivotal Cloud Foundry, DC/OS…..
  • 7. We help our clients use data to make better decisions about their business. 7Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2018 Ironside Group, LLC
  • 8. Customer Analytics & Single Customer View Data Visualization, Dashboards & Reporting Financial Planning, Forecasting & Analysis Data Science & Machine Learning Data Integration & Warehousing Data Governance & Master Data Management Data Quality & 3rd Party Data Enrichment Data Engineering & App Dev / Integration Decision Support Experience Design Data & Analytics Strategy Data & Analytics Governance Data & Analytics Architecture Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC 8
  • 9. Using data to inform and automate decision making in pursuit of better business outcomes. 9
  • 10. Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2018 Ironside Group, LLC 10 Grow Revenues • Increase Existing • Create Net New Maximize Efficiency • Decision Support • Decision Automation Understand and Minimize Risk • Forecasting & Planning • Predict or Prevent Fraud In business, data science is a means for business process optimization, and business leaders can, and should, think of it as a powerful tool to that end.
  • 11. 11 Which action should I take? Reinforcement Learning How much or how many? Regression How do these things group together? Clustering / Recommendation Which category is this in? Classification Which one of these is not like the others? Anomaly Detection Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2018 Ironside Group, LLC
  • 12. 12Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC Data & Information What data is required? What data do we have today? What data might we need to acquire? How much history? Of what quality? Analysis Who wants to know? What do we need to know? What do we wish we could know? What methods and tools can we avail? Decisions & Actions What are the “business moments”? What decisions are made? How are they made? Who is deciding / acting? How often / many? What are the levers of change? Goals & Outcomes What are our business goals? What are the activities that will lead to success? What will prevent success? What is the data opportunity? Can we quantify value of this goal?
  • 13. Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC 13 What else about the consumer, outside of my data, correlates to value? What if I could estimate the customer’s affluence and spending power before they ever transact with me? How does traffic and drive time impact our access to the market both broadly and individually? How does the presence of accessible competitors impact consumer frequency and wallet share? How do elements such as weather impact performance of our products and services? Would I interact differently with a given consumer with this information at the outset?
  • 14. Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC 14 Model Target Definition The target for this model is Summer Revenue which is estimated by the number of reviews a listing received in summer months multiplied by the daily price and then multiplied by 4 (based on assumption that average stay is 4 days). Training dataset = 1070 listings in greater Boston Assumptions: 1. 100% of visitors left a review 2. An average stay in summer = 4 days 3. The price listed is the average daily price in the summer months 4. Availability for summer months does not change year over year Filters: 1. Had bookings in 2017 and 2018 2. Had availability for 2019 3. Addresses could be enriched
  • 15. Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC 15 Feature Property Attributes:  property type  max # of people accommodates  # bathrooms  # bedrooms  bed type  room type  property description (text)  neighborhood description (text)  amenities (flag/dummy code per amenity, composited created for “handicap accessible” and “family friendly”) Host Attributes: • # listings • host is superhost • picture available • prior reviews • host is local • host in same neighborhood • host identity verified • host description (length) • policies: • cancellation policy strictness • requires guest profile picture • house rules (text and length of text)
  • 16. Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC 16 Location Attributes:  distance to nearest public transit  CAMEO segment  financial stress of city block (ranked within state and nation)  presence of children (ranked within state and nation)  population of city block  households in city block History:  summer availability (days marked as available for summer 2019 calendar)  2016 and 2017 summer revenue
  • 17. © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC - Client Confidential 17 Location data such as distance to airports, Amtrak, highway exits, mbta stations, block population/density measures and block socio-economic measures surfaced as some of the most important predictors of summer demand
  • 18. 18 DataRobot leaderboard: ● Ranks 50+ models in performance ● Balances performance and accuracy ● Performs intensive cross validation to protect against overfitting ● Allows manual retraining of specific models/blueprints on various feature sets
  • 19. 19 Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC Time: Derived from PB Accurate GeoCoder and Address location information -- most impactful Model Feature
  • 20. Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2019 Ironside Group, LLC 20 ANALYTICAL SKILLS & TOOLSDOMAIN KNOWLEDGE BROADER, COMPLETE & ACCURATE DATA Demand for Better Analytics Analytics Supply
  • 21. Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2018 Ironside Group, LLC 21 Law Enforcement • Where should I locate officers to prevent crime? Retailer • Which stores should I open or close to maximize profits? Manufacturer • What ingredient amounts should we use to produce the highest quality foam? Utility Company • What is the probability that a contractor damages a gas line while digging? Health Insurer • Which of these health insurance claims can I subrogate to the auto insurer? University • How much is this person likely to donate to our endowment? Real Estate • How many employees is this company going to relocate across the globe in the next 12 months? Mortgage Bank • What is the probability that this mortgage is going to default or be pre-paid? Insurer • What procedures were performed in these health insurance claims?
  • 22. Client Privileged & Confidential - © 2018 Ironside Group, LLC 22 Business Function, Process, Role, Persona etc. Frequency of Occurrence Number of Users Technology Dependencies Skill Dependencies Data Sources Data Quality & Completeness Cost & Effort to Develop Cost to Operate and Sustain Time to Value Steering Committee Ranking Executive Sponsorship Demographics Business Impact Data & Analytics Qualitative Important? Unsatisfied? Tangible? Lucrative? Cost