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Data Con LA 2022-Perfect Viral Ad prediction of Superbowl 2022 using Tease, Test, Tweak and Target

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Data Con LA 2022-Perfect Viral Ad prediction of Superbowl 2022 using Tease, Test, Tweak and Target

Arif Ansari, Professor at University of Southern California
Super Bowl Ad cost $7 million and each year a few Super Bowl ads go viral. The traditional A/B testing does not predict virality. Some highly shared ones reach over 60 million organic views, which can be more valuable than views on TV. Not only are these voluntary, but they are typically without distraction, and win viewer engagement in the form of likes, comments, or shares. A Super Bowl ad that wins 69 million views on YouTube (e.g., Alexa Mind Reader) costs less than 10 cents per quality view! However, the challenge is triggering virality. We developed a method to predict virality and engineer virality into Ads.
1. Prof. Gerard J. Tellis and co-authors recommended that advertisers use YouTube to tease, test, and tweak (TTT) their ads to maximize sharing and viewing. 2022 saw that maxim put into practice.
2. We developed viral Ads prediction using two scientific models:
a. Prof. Gerard Tellis et al.'s model for viral prediction
b. Deep Learning viral prediction using social media effect
3. The model was able to identify all the top 15 Viral Ads it performed better than the traditional agencies.
4. New proposed method is Tease, Test, Tweak, Target and Spots Ad.

Arif Ansari, Professor at University of Southern California
Super Bowl Ad cost $7 million and each year a few Super Bowl ads go viral. The traditional A/B testing does not predict virality. Some highly shared ones reach over 60 million organic views, which can be more valuable than views on TV. Not only are these voluntary, but they are typically without distraction, and win viewer engagement in the form of likes, comments, or shares. A Super Bowl ad that wins 69 million views on YouTube (e.g., Alexa Mind Reader) costs less than 10 cents per quality view! However, the challenge is triggering virality. We developed a method to predict virality and engineer virality into Ads.
1. Prof. Gerard J. Tellis and co-authors recommended that advertisers use YouTube to tease, test, and tweak (TTT) their ads to maximize sharing and viewing. 2022 saw that maxim put into practice.
2. We developed viral Ads prediction using two scientific models:
a. Prof. Gerard Tellis et al.'s model for viral prediction
b. Deep Learning viral prediction using social media effect
3. The model was able to identify all the top 15 Viral Ads it performed better than the traditional agencies.
4. New proposed method is Tease, Test, Tweak, Target and Spots Ad.

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Data Con LA 2022-Perfect Viral Ad prediction of Superbowl 2022 using Tease, Test, Tweak and Target

  1. 1. Perfect Viral Ad prediction of Super bowl 2022 using Tease, Test, Tweak and Target method Prof. Gerard Tellis Prof. Arif Ansari & Mr. Yusuf Ansari (Intuition Intelligence Inc.)
  2. 2. Superbowl 2022 Key Facts • The Super Bowl Ad slot costs $7 million, and a few Super Bowl ads go viral each year. A viral ad can potentially double or triple the Super Bowl audience. • The Super Bowl is one of the last remaining mass-market TV events; Super Bowl Ads slots sell 18 months in advance. • Many Super Bowl 2022 Advertisers tried to do the Tease, Test, Tweak, and Target method in an Adhoc way. But unfortunately, A/B testing of Ads is an old method, and it does not help to improve the virality and resonance of an Ad. References: Three Questions to ask before investing in the 2023 Super Bowl by Gerard J. Tellis, Yusuf Ansari and Arif Ansari - WARC Exclusive, May 2022
  3. 3. METHODOLOGY TO PREDICT VIRAL ADS INSIDE THE CONTENT & OUTSIDE THE CONTENT Focused Study-based Analysis Prof. Gerard J. Tellis and co-authors built a model to predict the virality of Ads using the Focused study method with 70+ factors. This method was modified for Super Bowl 2022. Social Media Effect on the Audience Intuition Intelligence Inc’s Deep Learning Viral Prediction Model using live social media effect. It is based on two Machine Learning Engines working in unison.
  4. 4. Panel based Analysis predicts Virality based on Video Content Characteristics Based on Audience drivers of Shares Mixed-Effects Model based on Information-Focused Content, Emotional-Focused Content, Commercial Content, Etc., Panel scores presence of various items in the content, including Celebrities, Animals, Brands introduction, Etc., Panel raters need training to score the content Virality is estimated based on 70+ factors Updated for Super Bowl Analysis
  5. 5. Deep Learning Model: Predicts Virality based on Social Effects Viral Grade is a rank ordered score • Viral Rank 1 is the best • The score generally ranges from 1 to 10,000 • The wide range is developed for millions of contents posted per day • It auto adjusts for Genre, Topics It is based on two Engines • Viral Prediction Engine and Super Relevance Engine. Virality is based on 400+ different variables
  6. 6. Super Bowl Ads – Ad hoc Testing observed Adhoc Tease, Test, Tweak, and Target methodology in Super Bowl by GM's Dr. EV-il Ad & BMW's Zeus and Hera Ad
  7. 7. Viral Ranks Super Bowl Ads on Jan 26th, 2022 Brand Name Ad Title VG Rank on Jan 26th Views Predicted ROAS Date Published Pepsi The Call | Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show OFFICIAL TRAILER 8 9,233,180 10.36 Thu, 01/20/2022 - 21:45 Pepsico Road to Super Bowl LVI | PepsiCo 118 167,072 4.31 Thu, 01/13/2022 - 22:19 AT&T “A Lot In Common” | AT&T Fiber 281 388,149 2.22 Tue, 01/25/2022 - 23:35 Cheetos Questions 305 1,993,397 1.56 Thu, 01/20/2022 - 01:22 Doritos Trailer 318 37,252 2.77 Mon, 01/24/2022 - 22:35 Doritos Paw Prints 354 67,927 2.62 Mon, 01/24/2022 - 22:34 Lay's Lay’s | “Big Fan” Super Bowl LVI Commercial Teaser #1 655 2,666,525 1.42 Thu, 01/20/2022 - 19:51 Budweiser Budweiser | Super Bowl Teaser 2022 1002 2,348 1.03 Wed, 01/26/2022 - 22:02 Vroom Vroom Official Big Game Commercial 2022 | Flake the Musical 1295 5,463 1.46 Thu, 01/20/2022 - 22:09 Rocket Mortgage Rocket Mortgage Super Bowl Squares Ad 2022 | Enter Now! 2903 87,928 1.1 Wed, 01/12/2022 - 13:00 Note: a. A lower VG rank value indicates a higher video performance, with a VG value of 1 being the best. b. ROAS is the Return On Ad Spend Intuition Intelligence Confidential 7
  8. 8. 8 256+ Ad Variants were released for Super Bowl 2022
  9. 9. 9 Ads like BMW scored very well on Panel Based Analysis because of Emotions, Celebrity, Twist, etc.
  10. 10. Ads like Alexa Mind Reader scored well on both Panel based Analysis & Social Media Effects 10
  11. 11. The First-Ever All-Electric Chevy Silverado – New Generation (The Sopranos) | Chevrolet 11
  12. 12. Viral – Across the International Audience but did not do well with US Audience polling because Turkish Airlines (International brand) Viral – Flattery & Newness Performs Terrible on Panel Analysis A lot of Influencers created content. Scored well in the Social Media Effect “Call to Action” 12 Outliers
  13. 13. Super Bowl Comparison Results Rank Top 15- USA Today Ad Age Intuition Intelligence (Deep Learning & Panel) 1 Rocket Rocket Coinbase 2 Amazon Toyota Amazon 3 Doritos GM Chevrolet 4 Kia Google Nissan 5 Toyota UberEats Turkish Airlines 6 Lays Expedia Budweiser-Clydes 7 BMW Chevrolet BMW 8 NFL Lays Google 9 E-Trade BMW GM 10 Nissan Amazon SquareSpace 11 Michelob-ultra-bowling Kia NFL 12 GM NFL Doritos 13 Budweiser -Clydes Verizon Kia 14 Verizon FTX Toyota 15 FTX SquareSpace Verizon 13
  14. 14. Engineering Virality into content using Systematic Tease, Test, Tweak and Target method Intuition Intelligence Confidential 14
  15. 15. Bajaj Pulsar Chalklines Ad Campaign Objective Campaign to emphasis the importance of social distancing during the covid season Video was created with the ability to cut into multiple versions Intuition Intelligence Confidential 15
  16. 16. Instant feedback - Viral Grade Rank 1200 – Not good, not resonating with audience Intuition Intelligence Confidential 16 Text Sentiments Feedback Step 1: Tease – Release Bajaj Pulsar “Pulsar Chalklines” Ad
  17. 17. STEP2: TESTING PHASE IN YOUTUBE – GIVES THE FEEDBACKS Intuition Intelligence Confidential 17
  18. 18. Thumbnail Feedback 1. Thumbnail is too busy to understand the Bike Stunt 2. Title “Pulsar Chalklines” did not convey the intended meaning 3. Tags were Not enough to make the video “Search Engine Friendly” Intuition Intelligence Confidential 18
  19. 19. Text Sentiments Feedback Intuition Intelligence Confidential 19
  20. 20. Emotive Sentiments Feedback Intuition Intelligence Confidential 20
  21. 21. Focused Group Feedback – Panel Analysis is not done Intuition Intelligence Confidential 21
  22. 22. Comment Feedback – A Sample Intuition Intelligence Confidential 22
  23. 23. Step3: Tweak Intuition Intelligence Confidential 23 1. The Title was changed to “New Normal” in line with Brand Image 2. The Thumbnail was modified to bring in an element of surprise, the audience were expecting a thrill ride stunt to make the Ad more clickable and generate more organic views 3. New tags were added to make the Ad discoverable by “Search Engines”
  24. 24. Original Title: Pulsar Chalklines New Title: New Normal Viralizing Title, Tags and Description with resonating keywords Intuition Intelligence Confidential 24 Result of Engineering Virality by modifying Tags, Titles and Description
  25. 25. Tweak Iterations Stunt Emotion & Chalklines are hard to recognize as it is too busy Chalklines and Stunt Emotion but failed on Social distancing Branding Message Intuition Intelligence Confidential 25 Modifying the Thumbnail to make it more resonating
  26. 26. Tweaks Inside the Video Stunt Emotion & Chalklines are hard to recognize as it is too busy Chalklines and Stunt Emotion but failed on Social distancing Branding Message Intuition Intelligence Confidential 26 Modifying the Content Messaging based on Sentiment, Emoticon and Comments Feedback
  27. 27. We Viralized Bajaj Pulsar Chalk Lines Campaign ROI by 3X Before Final Intuition Intelligence Confidential 27 Step 4: Target – Campaign – Money spent for 40 million views Net Result: Highly Viral Video with Viral Rank of 318 (Lower number are better)
  28. 28. Superbowl 2022 Conclusion Conclusion  Superbowl Ads are valuable assets for Brands  Ad Hoc Tease, Test, Tweak and Target method increased Ads Virality and Reach. General Motor’s Dr. EV-il commercial & others  The Dual model was able to identify all the top 15 Viral Ads and it performed better than the traditional agencies.  Application of Systematic way of doing Tease, Test, Tweak and Target method was demonstrated – This method is better than A/B testing of Ads --------------  Panel method largely Validates that the theoretical drivers of virality  Funny Ad - BMW Zeus&Hera Ad  Positive Emotions - Bud Clydesdale Horse and Dog  Social Effects method is able to provide a confident viral score for all Ads  Call to Action “Coin Base Ad” went viral even without any Emotive Content  Evaluator Bias was observed in “Turkish Airlines Ad”  Money Left on Table: Many brands missed the opportunity to further increase the reach by doing “Spot Advertising (10-15 seconds)” to super targeted in the social media space. 28

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