Solar forecasting requirements for ubiquitous solar

1. Solar Forecasting Requirements for
Ubiquitous Solar
1

2. Source: IEA “2015 Snapshot of Global PV Markets.”
• At the end of 2015 global PV installations reached 227 GW,up from 177 GW
in 2014
• An annual increase of 50 GW
• Globally,the U.S.installed the 3rd most PV capacity in 2015 and is now one of
the top 4 markets in cumulative capacity
Top 10 PV Markets by Country
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
China
Japan
USA
UK
India
Germany
South Korea
Australia
France
Canada
AnnualInstallations(GW)
2015 Annual Installations
0
10
20
30
40
50
China
Germany
Japan
USA
Italy
UK
France
Spain
Australia
India
AnnualInstallations(GW)
2015 Cum. Installations

3. Source: IEA “2015 Snapshot of Global PV Markets.”
• Despite large levels of U.S.deployment it ranks 25th in the world for PV penetration,with
just under 1%
• Germany,Greece and Italy each have PV penetration levels of more than 7%
National PV Penetration
3
%ofElectricityDemand(2015Capacities)
USA
⪍ 1%

4. 2015 U.S.Capacity and Generation
• Despite solar representing a large amount of new generation,it still represents a relatively
small amount of U.S. capacity and generation
– At the end of 2015 solar represented 2.0% of net summer capacity and 0.9% of annual
generation
• ~67% of U.S. generation came from fossil fuels in 2015 with another 11% coming from
nuclear
– Capacity is not proportional to generation as certain technologies (e.g.nat.gas) have
lower capacity factors than others (e.g. nuclear)
Source: EIA Electric Power Monthly.
4
Coal
33%
Nat. Gas
33%
Nuclear
19%
Hydro
6%
Wind
5%
UPV
0.57%
DPV
0.30%
CSP
0.08%
Geo
0%
Other
3%
2015 U.S. Generation
4.1TWh
Coal
26%
Nat. Gas
41%
Nuclear
9%
Hydro
8%
Wind
7%
UPV
1.08%
DPV
0.78%
CSP
0.16%
Geo
0%
Other
7%
2015 U.S. Capacity
1.1TW

5. 5
• U.S.has installed ~19 GW of new capacity per year in past decade
– Natural gas and wind have been largest contributors but solar is becoming a significant portion
of new generation
– Would take 50-60 years to change entire U.S.fleet
• In 2015,solar was responsible for approximately 30% of all new generation capacity in the U.S.
– Wind and solar combined for 69% of new generation
Sources: 2004-2010 (except solar): EIA.U.S installed capacity, Form 860. 2011-2013: FERC: "Office of Energy Projects
Energy Infrastructure Update for December 2012/2013/2014/2015." 2011-2013 Solar, GTM/SEIA, U.S. Solar Market Insight
Q4 2014, using PV converted to AC using .8333 derate factor. 2014-15 Solar, SEPA “2014/2015 Solar Market Snapshot”
U.S. Generation CapacityAdditions by Source
Wind, 8,186
Natural Gas,
5,952
CSP, 110
UPV, 3,380
DPV, 2,938
Other, 536
U.S Generation CapacityAdditions,
2015 (Total 21.1 GW)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
U.S.CapacityAdditions(GW)
Other
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil
Coal
Gas
Wind
CSP
UPV
DPV

6. California PV penetration
Source: IHS “Top Solar Power Industry Trends for 2015.”
6

7. How can solar forecasting
enable ubiquitous solar?
7

8. Increase the value
• coupling a zero-carbon energy
source with dispatchable power
sources, such as storage and load
Reduce the cost of grid
integration
• intermittent,non-dispatchable
energy resource
Lowering barriers & increasing value
8

9. § Commonly accepted
metrics
§ Accuracy
(irradiance & power)
§ Implementation in
commercial
environment
§ Statistical vs.
Operational
§ Improved but still
region/time specific
§ Commercially used but
integration is lacking
Progress towards SUNRISE (2013) goals
9

10. § (Integration) Cost side
– Evolving solutions
– Technical innovation
• Reduce uncertainty
• Manage variability
• Operational integration
o BTM vs. Utility-scale
§ Value side
– Emerging solutions
– Technical innovation
• Communication
• Control & Integration
– Regulatory innovation
– Business innovation
Solar Forecasting:means to an end
10
§ Ubiquity:only if solar maintains a value premium
– System cost reduction is not enough

11. Area Challenge
Business § Financial benefit of improvements in the skill of
solar power forecasts
ISOs & Balancing Authorities,IPPs &Vertically Integrated
Utilities,System owners
Science/
Technology
§ Scalability of models
Statistical vs.Deterministic BTM power forecasts
Operations/
Technology
§ Full integration into daily operations workflow
Software integration
Science § Improved skill for large-scale weather events
Accurate prediction of contingency reserves
Cost-side Challenges
11

12. Type Question
Regulatory/
Technical
§ How will DERs be operated?
Autonomous vs.Dispatched
Business/
Regulatory
§ How will DER operation be compensated?
Tariffs vs.LMP;Aggregators vs.end-customers
Technical § Can we have low-cost,reliable comms for DERs?
Both essential for adoption and reliability
Scientific/
Technical
§ Will highly granular forecasting be useful?
Accuracy;Scalability
Value-side Questions
12

13. § A $25M Funding Opportunity
§ Develop[ing] distribution planning and operation solutions
to enable dynamic,automated, and cost-effective management
of distributed and variable generation sources
§ Solutions for 50% solar penetration (distrib.system) by 2020
(1-yr demonstration)
§ Transformative solutions for 100% solar penetration by 2030
(large-scale simulation)
§ May 19: InformationalWebinar
DOE SunShot News: ENERGISE
13

14. § GS-13 and GS-14 levels (Junior and Senior)
§ Permanent federal positions
§ Cutoffs:May 16 & May 26 (final)
§ Apply via USAjobs
§ http://energy.gov/eere/sunshot/articles/sunshot-
announces-new-job-openings
Multiple solar energy technology managers to fill
vacancies on the Photovoltaics,Concentrating Solar Power,
Technology to Market, and Systems Integration teams
DOE Sunshot News:We are hiring
14

15. 15
Technology Manager,Systems Integration
Tassos.Golnas@EE.DOE.gov
2016-05-09
Dr.Tassos Golnas