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02 sandia pv modeling conference 9 may2017

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8th PVPMC Workshop, May 9-10 2017

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02 sandia pv modeling conference 9 may2017

  1. 1. Copyright © 2017 Clean Power Research, L.L.C V112415_16:9 Advances in long-term energy prediction through non-normally distributed POE Skip Dise Lead Product Manager Tuesday, May 9 2017
  2. 2. 35 Digital Users Increasing Interest in Energy Products Consumer Behavior Power Generation Changing Electric Resource Mix Forces Shaping the Energy Transformation Grid Optimization
  3. 3. Advancing the Energy Transformation with Cloud Services that inform business decisions, engage customers and streamline operations Personalized Engagement Objective Analytics Energy Program Automation
  4. 4. Agenda  Solar Research @CPR  Is Annual Insolation Normally Distributed?  Normal v. Synthetic Years  Next Steps
  5. 5. © GroundWork Renewables, Inc. | All Rights Reserved 5 BEYOND THE SCOPE (OF GROUNDWORK TALK) TMY3 use Shifts in P50 Probability of Exceedance methods Factors unrelated to ground measurements Bank negotiated financial terms
  6. 6. © GroundWork Renewables, Inc. | All Rights Reserved 6 BEYOND THE SCOPE (OF GROUNDWORK TALK) TMY3 use (and SolarAnywhere accuracy/uncertainty) Shifts in P50 (and associated uncertainty) Probability of Exceedance methods Factors unrelated to ground measurements Bank negotiated financial terms From: https://www.solaranywhere.com/validation/leadership-bankability
  7. 7. © GroundWork Renewables, Inc. | All Rights Reserved 7 TIGHTENING UNCERTAINTY OF P99 Investment in Ground Measurements Can Increase P99 Secondary Standard Secondary Standard + Soiling Secondary Standard + Diffuse + Soiling Secondary Standard + DNI/Diffuse + Soiling Baseline / Satellite Only P99 $ $$ $$$ $$$$
  8. 8. Is Annual Insolation Normally Distributed?  What is the reference?  Theoretical clear sky max  Climate trends – random? Annual Insolation Distribution P99
  9. 9. www.solaranywhere.com
  10. 10. Satellite data – 19 full years, annual
  11. 11. Daily Insolation Distribution Sunrise Sunset
  12. 12. Monthly Insolation Distribution January December
  13. 13. Is Annual Insolation Normally Distributed?  What is the reference?  Theoretical clear sky max  Climate trends – random? Annual Insolation Distribution P99
  14. 14. January – March 1998 January – March 1999 January – March 2000 January – March 2001 January – March 2002 January – March 2003 January – March 2004 January – March 2005 April – June 1998 April – June 1999 April – June 2000 April – June 2001 April – June 2002 April – June 2003 April – June 2004 April – June 2005 April – June 2006 April – June 2007 April – June 2008 April – June 2009 July – Sept 1999 July – Sept 2000 July – Sept 2001 April – June 2002 July – Sept 2003 July – Sept 2004 July – Sept 2005 July – Sept 2006 July – Sept 2007 July – Sept 2008 July – Sept 2009 July – Sept 2010 July – Sept 2011 n x n x n x n = n4 Synthetic years – n4 Oct – Dec 1998 Oct – Dec 1999 Oct – Dec 2000 Oct – Dec 2001 Oct – Dec 2002 Oct – Dec 2003 Oct – Dec 2004 Oct – Dec 2005 Oct – Dec 2006
  15. 15. Synthetic years – n4
  16. 16. Synthetic years – n4
  17. 17. Potential impact on POE 𝑷𝒙𝐱_𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐦 difference Pxx v. (𝑃𝑥𝑥 𝑠𝑦𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑐) P99 1.569% P90 0.463% P75 -0.180% P50 -0.148% P25 0.004% P20 -0.074% P5 -0.559% P1 -1.164%
  18. 18. Next Steps – to IEEE PVSC (6/25 – 6/30)  Test at multiple public ground stations  Build larger sample size  Test for normality
  19. 19. Recap  Solar Research @CPR  Is Annual Insolation Normally Distributed?  Normal v. Synthetic Years  Next Steps
  20. 20. Easy to Access, Data on Demand …blah, blah Advancing the Energy Transformation with SolarAnywhere Bankable Solar Resource Data …blah, blah
  21. 21. Personalized Engagement Energy Program Automation Objective Analytics Build trust and customer satisfaction Unlock the value of data Reliably integrate distributed assets into utility planning Engage customers more deeply with online experiences Use data to simulate and forecast accurately Create more adaptable business processes Advancing the Energy Transformation Realize opportunity in a landscape of increasing DER adoption rates Maintain assets more predictably and proactively Provide additional value-added services Gain insight into distributed energy resource adoption
  22. 22. Connecting a new solar customer to the grid every 11 minutes 50% of utility-owned solar reservation slots booked in less than 30 minutes Responding to 50k interconnection applications annually Proactive campaign educates customers; supports #2 J.D. Power position Our customers are finding opportunity in the energy transformation Online customer experiences help drive #1 J.D. Power ranking
  23. 23. Reduce time to benefit Business Card Lorem Ipsum is simply dummy text of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been. Benefit from best practices Why use the Clean Power Research Business Model? Acquire at low & predictable costs Realize continual innovation Integrate seamlessly on your terms
  24. 24. Outline  Intro • Prompt from GroundWork talk • State of solar research • Why does this matter? • Point B:  Problem: Loss from assumed normality • Is annual insolation distribution normally distributed? • What do typical distributions look like? • What potential error can we have assuming normal distribution?  Proposed solution: • Expanded possible years – 4 month segments • Push towards normality • Test for normality • Improvement in accuracy

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