02 sandia pv modeling conference 9 may2017
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8th PVPMC Workshop, May 9-10 2017
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02 sandia pv modeling conference 9 may2017
- 1. Copyright © 2017 Clean Power Research, L.L.C V112415_16:9 Advances in long-term energy prediction through non-normally distributed POE Skip Dise Lead Product Manager Tuesday, May 9 2017
- 2. 35 Digital Users Increasing Interest in Energy Products Consumer Behavior Power Generation Changing Electric Resource Mix Forces Shaping the Energy Transformation Grid Optimization
- 3. Advancing the Energy Transformation with Cloud Services that inform business decisions, engage customers and streamline operations Personalized Engagement Objective Analytics Energy Program Automation
- 4. Agenda Solar Research @CPR Is Annual Insolation Normally Distributed? Normal v. Synthetic Years Next Steps
- 5. © GroundWork Renewables, Inc. | All Rights Reserved 5 BEYOND THE SCOPE (OF GROUNDWORK TALK) TMY3 use Shifts in P50 Probability of Exceedance methods Factors unrelated to ground measurements Bank negotiated financial terms
- 6. © GroundWork Renewables, Inc. | All Rights Reserved 6 BEYOND THE SCOPE (OF GROUNDWORK TALK) TMY3 use (and SolarAnywhere accuracy/uncertainty) Shifts in P50 (and associated uncertainty) Probability of Exceedance methods Factors unrelated to ground measurements Bank negotiated financial terms From: https://www.solaranywhere.com/validation/leadership-bankability
- 7. © GroundWork Renewables, Inc. | All Rights Reserved 7 TIGHTENING UNCERTAINTY OF P99 Investment in Ground Measurements Can Increase P99 Secondary Standard Secondary Standard + Soiling Secondary Standard + Diffuse + Soiling Secondary Standard + DNI/Diffuse + Soiling Baseline / Satellite Only P99 $ $$ $$$ $$$$
- 8. Is Annual Insolation Normally Distributed? What is the reference? Theoretical clear sky max Climate trends – random? Annual Insolation Distribution P99
- 10. Satellite data – 19 full years, annual
- 13. Is Annual Insolation Normally Distributed? What is the reference? Theoretical clear sky max Climate trends – random? Annual Insolation Distribution P99
- 14. January – March 1998 January – March 1999 January – March 2000 January – March 2001 January – March 2002 January – March 2003 January – March 2004 January – March 2005 April – June 1998 April – June 1999 April – June 2000 April – June 2001 April – June 2002 April – June 2003 April – June 2004 April – June 2005 April – June 2006 April – June 2007 April – June 2008 April – June 2009 July – Sept 1999 July – Sept 2000 July – Sept 2001 April – June 2002 July – Sept 2003 July – Sept 2004 July – Sept 2005 July – Sept 2006 July – Sept 2007 July – Sept 2008 July – Sept 2009 July – Sept 2010 July – Sept 2011 n x n x n x n = n4 Synthetic years – n4 Oct – Dec 1998 Oct – Dec 1999 Oct – Dec 2000 Oct – Dec 2001 Oct – Dec 2002 Oct – Dec 2003 Oct – Dec 2004 Oct – Dec 2005 Oct – Dec 2006
- 15. Synthetic years – n4
- 16. Synthetic years – n4
- 17. Potential impact on POE 𝑷𝒙𝐱_𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐦 difference Pxx v. (𝑃𝑥𝑥 𝑠𝑦𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑐) P99 1.569% P90 0.463% P75 -0.180% P50 -0.148% P25 0.004% P20 -0.074% P5 -0.559% P1 -1.164%
- 18. Next Steps – to IEEE PVSC (6/25 – 6/30) Test at multiple public ground stations Build larger sample size Test for normality
- 19. Recap Solar Research @CPR Is Annual Insolation Normally Distributed? Normal v. Synthetic Years Next Steps
- 20. Easy to Access, Data on Demand …blah, blah Advancing the Energy Transformation with SolarAnywhere Bankable Solar Resource Data …blah, blah
- 21. Personalized Engagement Energy Program Automation Objective Analytics Build trust and customer satisfaction Unlock the value of data Reliably integrate distributed assets into utility planning Engage customers more deeply with online experiences Use data to simulate and forecast accurately Create more adaptable business processes Advancing the Energy Transformation Realize opportunity in a landscape of increasing DER adoption rates Maintain assets more predictably and proactively Provide additional value-added services Gain insight into distributed energy resource adoption
- 22. Connecting a new solar customer to the grid every 11 minutes 50% of utility-owned solar reservation slots booked in less than 30 minutes Responding to 50k interconnection applications annually Proactive campaign educates customers; supports #2 J.D. Power position Our customers are finding opportunity in the energy transformation Online customer experiences help drive #1 J.D. Power ranking
- 23. Reduce time to benefit Business Card Lorem Ipsum is simply dummy text of the printing and typesetting industry. Lorem Ipsum has been. Benefit from best practices Why use the Clean Power Research Business Model? Acquire at low & predictable costs Realize continual innovation Integrate seamlessly on your terms
- 24. Outline Intro • Prompt from GroundWork talk • State of solar research • Why does this matter? • Point B: Problem: Loss from assumed normality • Is annual insolation distribution normally distributed? • What do typical distributions look like? • What potential error can we have assuming normal distribution? Proposed solution: • Expanded possible years – 4 month segments • Push towards normality • Test for normality • Improvement in accuracy
Editor's Notes
- Purpose: Establish a common world view. Establish consumer behavior and distributed power generation as the primary forces impacting the energy transformation, and their business. Timing: Approx. 2 min Key Points: Consumer behavior and distributed power generation are the primary forces driving change in their business. We all know DER is happening, but it is the scale and speed at which it is happening that is challenging utilities. Do not walk through bullet points on slide, rather select one or two where you can elaborate and surface those that you think are of the most interest to the customer. ASK – how this is manifesting itself in their business. What key goals or challenges are they facing? Resources: Utility Solar Market Snapshot Last year, 44 utilities averaged at least one interconnection per day. The percentage of utility respondents who are offering or considering a community solar program rose 20% since last year. Solar energy forecasting - Solar production data are used in conjunction with forecasts for system load and weather for the purpose of utility resource planning and grid management. 11% (13) of respondents use solar forecasting for planning purposes. 42% (51) of respondents are researching or considering it 52 responding utilities representing 21 states reported they were approaching solar as a least-cost resource for their integrated resource planning. Advanced Energy Economy – Advanced Energy Now Market Report 2016 21% Increase over last year, even as costs have declined by nearly 50% SEPA and Black & Veatch - Planning the Distributed Energy Future While 75% of MWh sales are in states with relatively “passive” DER policies, more states are following the leaders and DER policies are expected to converge between states over the next decade. 3 out of 5 utilities – representing nearly 9% of total U.S. electricity sales, responded that they face regulatory mandates to conduct DER planning. All 5 utilities sited a growing volume of DER interconnection requests. Accenture – Digitally enabled Grid Research Program 45% Utilities executives surveyed who report that the traditional electricity distribution system is no longer fit-for-purpose. 56% % of utilities executives surveyed expect grid faults to increase by 2020 as a result of distributed renewable generation Only 15% of US utilities executives report that a transition is underway. Accenture – The New Energy Consumer https://www.accenture.com/us-en/insight-unleashing-business-value-main.aspx
- Purpose: Introduce CPR product families as solutions to their organizational challenges. Timing: 1-2 minutes Key Points: SolarAnywhere helps you to understand solar energy potential with the industry’s most trusted irradiance data and analytics. SolarAnywhere Fleetview enables you to reliably integrate distributed- and utility-scale solar into your grid planning and operations. PowerBill simplifies complex solar, electric vehicle, energy efficiency calculations. WattPlan is on online personalized customer engagement solution that empowers consumers to make smart energy decisions. PowerBill API provides electric rates, incentives and energy simulations - integrate into your solutions for world-class analytics for solar, electric vehicle and energy efficiency technologies. PowerClerk enables you to streamline your energy program administration with online business process management software designed specifically for the energy industry. Resources | Sources:
- Purpose: Use this slide to illustrate our differentiated value proposition. The two pillars reflect the customer outcomes that we established together in the beginning as important – and that we believe that we are collectively the best at enabling. The differentiation points at the bottom provide the top attributes that enable us to deliver on these outcomes. BOTH are important. Timing: 2-3 minutes Key Points: Summarize the key points you heard were important to them relative to engaging customers and preparing for distributed power generation. Reiterate the challenges they are facing and the goals that they have. Flexibility and scale of cloud services: with all the benefits of software as a service – fast time to value, developed with industry best practices in mind, delivered at the lowest initial and ongoing costs, and continually innovated, along with the benefits of building in the cloud – flexible | elastic, security, reliable, scalable. Culture of objectivity and reliability: Important that the data you use is objective, meaning it’s not prejudiced by a desired outcome. For customers counting on you for financial guidance in their decision making process, it’s important that you are viewed as objective – and so the organizations you chose to work with must be reliably objective. When it comes to the data that powers your organizational energy decisions, you need highly accurate, reliable & consistent data. At Clean Power Research, objectivity is part of the culture. We’re transparent - as we pioneer new methods and techniques, we document those in papers that we make widely available. We publish our version history so you can be confident you have consistency in your data. SolarAnywhere irradiance data is generated from geostationary satellite images and the images are processed using the most up-to-date methods developed by Dr. Richard Perez. Deep energy industry expertise: With more than 60 man-years of utility renewables experience, Clean Power Research is a nationally-recognized leader in PV energy valuation and modeling. Clients include state and federal energy agencies, electric utilities, universities, national laboratories, manufacturers and industry organizations. With areas of expertise in: Value of Solar® / Value of DG (utility and customer perspectives) Energy storage PV fleet modeling Net metering and feed-in-tariffs Clean energy program design With 8 years of software development here at CPR, that deep knowledge of the renewables industry is baked into the solutions we provide for you. -ASK: to schedule a demo. Resources:
- Purpose: Inspire conversation about their business priorities. Learn more about other parts of the organization and goals. Use this to connect back the opportunity back to their specific goals in later discussions. Structure the rest of the conversation around these pillars. Timing: Approx. 3-4 minutes Key Points: Typically, we find our utility customers struggling in three areas as they both prepare for and respond to the energy transformation: Customer behavior is changing and there is an expectation of personalized, digital engagement. This is both a risk and opportunity. Dissatisfied and disengaged customers express lower dissatisfaction. Digitally engaged customers share information about their energy use, sign up for automated home energy management devices or services, and participate in energy management programs creating opportunity for the utility company to increase services provided. As products associated with distributed energy prices drop – utilities are having to respond to increased demand. Ex, sharp increases in demand for solar with the ITC tax extension, electric vehicles currently 1% but rapidly growing. Automating programs that support the adoption of those technologies allows utilities to scale response, improve customer satisfaction, control costs, and realize the value of the data. The trouble with data and analytics isn’t always about having more data. It’s about having programmatic access to high-quality, objective, trusted data and information. ASK- which of these are priorities in your organization? How are you dealing with it today? Resources:
- Purpose: Build confidence in CPR. Inspire customers to new thinking about their programs. Timing: 2-3 minutes Key Points: Select from the slides for utility customers and the industry customers. Utilities facing the greatest demand to support distributed energy resources are turning to Clean Power Research to help them prepare for and respond to that demand. Southern California Edison - SCE combined two interconnection application processes (for small and large system net energy metering) into a single online process. SCE interconnection applicants are dynamically guided through the process, and relevant documentation and agreements are automatically selected. PG&E - Today PG&E has more solar customers than any other utility in the U.S. – adding 4,000 customers and month and adding a new customer to the grid every 11 minutes. That kind of scale requires automation to ensure that customers are serviced in a timely manner and ultimately satisfied, but also to ensure high data quality inputs that make processing effective and that can be leveraged across the business. PG&E has processed more than 70,000 incentive applications through online application software that streamlines application processing for both applicants and administrators. PG&E also recognized early-on the value of giving customers access to high-quality solar power calculations that give them accurate estimates. They are providing online, personalized tools that give an objective look into solar for their residential and commercial customers. They have incorporated energy efficiency functionality, which allows users to first model energy reduction measures and then size a PV system to the post-EE load. This proactive approach has helped them to maintain their #3 in the large west J.D. Power ranking. TEP - Tucson Electric Power’s innovation is making utility-owned solar accessible for all. TEP’s Residential Solar Program is aimed at making solar affordable for all utility customers while minimizing the shifting of infrastructure costs to non-solar customers, a common concern with net metering. In the TEP program, participants pay an upfront $250 fee to guarantee a fixed energy bill for up to 25 years based on their historical consumption, provided their future consumption doesn’t vary by more than 15%. TEP is processing its Residential Solar Program applications completely online with a streamlined end-to-end process that make scaling to surges in demand possible. Research has shown that utilities that successfully engage their customers about energy alternatives have higher levels of customer satisfaction. Common among utilities with very high J.D. Power satisfaction scores is the active role they take as a trusted advisor, especially in advising complex DER decisions. [PG&E - #3 in JD Power large west – if not mentioned above]. Salt River Project has taken a proactive approach to objectively communicating the impacts of their new solar rate, in a personalized way. SRP wanted to provide solutions directly from their website that made it easier for customers to explore their options, understand the costs and make informed decisions. Because of the complexity of SRPs rate structure (fixed, time-of-use, and demand charges), they needed to be able to integrate interval data to generate a highly accurate financial, energy, and environmental estimates. Users especially like that they are able to model the bill savings potential available by reducing their peak demand. SRP later added personalized EV estimates to their online toolset which helps customers determine whether an EV is right for them with accurate data about the costs and savings. Sacramento Municipal District - #1 in J.D. Power Satisfaction has the most proactive solar campaign we’ve seen and the impact of their approach shows in their customer satisfaction scores. As the trusted energy advisor, they wanted to help both residential and commercial customers early in their DER decision-making process with personalized and objective data. As people are depending on this data to make financial decisions, accuracy is important to SMUD and their customers. SMUD has taken their tools online, with a data-centric approach, that allow for highly personalized and customized calculations. They are leveraging interval data from smart meters, and have added innovations like rate optimization. Resources: SCE: http://www.cleanpower.com/resources/powerclerk-speeding-time-to-solar-interconnection-across-five-u-s-utilities-processed-over-25000-applications-in-five- months/ PG&E: http://www.cleanpower.com/2015/150k-pge-solar-customers/ TEP: http://www.cleanpower.com/2015/tep-utility-owned-solar/ SMUD: https://www.smud.org/en/residential/environment/solar-for-your-home/) http://www.cleanpower.com/resources/wattplan-customer-engagement-pr/ http://www.cleanpower.com/2015/epic-solar-forecasting/
- Purpose: Articulate the value of the Clean Power Research Business Model. Timing: Approx 2 min. Key Points: Summarize the key points. Reduce time to benefit: Easy to get started, beginning with the ability to perform a proof of concept. Come play in our sandbox and see exactly what you are going to get. As an example, the average time for program rollout on PowerClerk Interconnect has been three months, with some utilities implementing in less than a month. Benefit from Best Practices: With nearly 20 years in the business, with research and consulting focused on the value and performance of renewable energy resources and 8 in the development of our software products – that expertise is programmatically packaged in the software we provide for you. Further, working with early adopters and best-in-class utilities, we’ve packaged the knowledge and experience they’ve gaining in running scalable, effective energy programs into our software, enabling you to gain knowledge and best-practices from those who are further down the road. We, of course, still having the flexibility to adapt to your business processes because that’s part of the requirement demanded by our customers. Acquire at Low and Predictable Costs: The cost of our software is spread across all of our customer base, rather than absorbed entirely by you as is the case for in-house development. A subscription-based model is also predictable – you know the cost of your commitment upfront. Realize Continual Innovation: We are continually innovating, based on things like customer feedback, changes in the industry, consumer DER adoption rates, Manewly available resources or technologies. We manage all updates, so you don’t have to, and deliver them to you on an ongoing basis. Integrate seamlessly, on your terms: While many of our customers integrate with various systems [CRM] and data sources – and there are great benefits for doing so. Many also chose to get started quickly, with a simple, unintegrated installation and schedule integrations for later. Either way is okay with us, we just want to help you achieve your goals. ASK: Which of these is important to them in achieving their goals.