Forecasting commercial services from S2M - Juan Liria (Sun2Market)

1. Sun to Market Solutions
14 June 2013Sun to Market Solutions

2. Sun to Market Solutions was founded in response to the growing need for
independent technical support and engineering services in the solar power
sector.
14 June 2013Sun to Market Solutions
2
S2m offices
 S2m has deep bench of technical expertise with over 25 engineers in five continents.
 We have performed detailed studies and analysis in over 30 countries in the last five years
providing us with one of the best-in-class reputation in the solar sector.
 Our ongoing collaboration with plant operators give us a unique position in the
advisory/engineering community.

3. S2m has become a leading global advisor for the Solar Power industry
14 June 2013
Modeling
Engineering
Techno-
economic
Assistant
Solar
Resource
Marquesado Solar SL
Validated solar
resource analysis
Solcaster pro®
Delivery and O&M
of weather stations
for solar projects
Short and very short term
DNI prediction
S2m Nowcasting System
Sun to Market Solutions
3

4. Nowcasting is a short-term and very-short weather forecasting useful for
solar power plants performance optimization and grid integration.
14 June 2013Sun to Market Solutions
The S2m Nowcasting system provides continuous DNI & meteo data streaming for
three forecast horizons:
 0 – 15 min (time step of 1 minute)
 15 – 45 min (time step of 5 minutes)
 45 – 240 min – 24 h (time step of 60minutes)
Sky images Satellite images Numerical models
4

5. 14 June 2013Sun to Market Solutions
Example: Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority
Minimum Technical Requirements for Photovoltaic Generation (PV) Projects
7. RAMP RATE CONTROL:
Ramp Rate Control is required to smoothly transition
from one output level to another. The PV facility shall
be able to control the rate of change of power
output during some circumstances, including but not
limited to:
(1) rate of increase of power, (2) rate of decrease
of power, (3) rate of increase of power when a
curtailment of power output is released; (4) rate of
decrease in power when curtailment limit is engaged.
A 10 % per minute rate (based on nameplate
capacity) limitation shall be enforced.
This limit applies both to the increase and decrease
of power output.
5

6. 14 June 2013Sun to Market Solutions
Example: Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority
Minimum Technical Requirements for Photovoltaic Generation (PV) Projects
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Without control (Not complying)
With s2m Nowcasting control and battery storage
min
CapacityinstalledinMW
Responds of CPV power plant of transient situation
By predicting DNI and
CPV output (S2m
Nowcasting) and using
battery power the CPV
plant can comply with
ramp rate control in a
more economic way (Less
battery storage).
Reducing load
before clouds
come in.
Loading battery
(if applicable)
 Complying with
10 % per minute
rate
Increasing load
before clouds go
away by using e.g.
battery power.
Complying with 10
% per minute rate
6

7. 14 June 2013Sun to Market Solutions
 Provides uncertainty factor control in real-time, supporting grid operator
decisions as well as global grid operation strategies.
 Optimizes battery storage and improves the ramp rate control of CPV and
PV power plants.
 Evaluates operation alternatives in view of equipment breakdowns or
unexpected events (Preventive and corrective maintenance)
 Increases over all efficiency of solar power plant
The final objective of the S2m Nowcasting system is to improve the
predictability of the solar power plant production
7

8. • Facilitates load balancing
• Enhanced load prediction for renewable
energy sources
• Highly granular view for sensitive
transmission areas
• Enhances long term forecasting through
learning algorithms
• Provides assessment window on ramp-up
period for base-load generation
• Increases efficiency in switching costs and
back-up power
For TSOs
• Provides detailed forecast on plant
operating conditions
• Allows operators to optimize O&M
schedules in line with expected
production drops
• Enhances accuracy of production
reporting to the ISO/distributor
• Provides longer-term data on local
weather conditions and patterns
• In CSP plants, facilitates the arbitrage of
storage, natural gas prices, and PPA
penalties for optimized dispatch.
For Owner/Operators
Benefits on Both Sides of the T-line

9. Sources: SkyCam, Satellite, Meteo-station and Global numerical weather model
S2m developed a data acquisition scheme from four different
sources with posterior processing on own servers.
14 June 2013Sun to Market Solutions
Stereocopy
Fisheye cameras
Satellite
Internet
S2m observation
Client observation
Server
Meteo
Station
Global Forecast
Numerical Models
9

10. SkyCam Images
• Cloud Detection
• Cloud Classification according
optical features and height
• Motion Estimation
Satellite Images
• Cloud Detection
• Cloud Classification according
optical features and wind field.
• Motion Estimation
Numerical Model
• Automatic synoptic analysis
• Dynamically downscaling using mesoscale
numerical models
Raw data have to be properly labeled and stored before the real
processing and data extraction.
14 June 2013Sun to Market Solutions
DataProcessing
DataAcquisition
Meteo-station
measurements
10

11. Data processing allows the extraction of information about physical
movement of the clouds to obtain a good radiation prediction.
IrradiationPrediction
15 min
45 min
240 min
DataProcessing
Segmentation Motion Estimation
Extract outputs numeriacl model
14 June 2013Sun to Market Solutions
11

12. 14 June 2013Sun to Market Solutions
Sky images are taken and processed every 30
seconds.
S2m has deployed proprietary sky-cameras and weather stations in
order to motorize the sky and measure the needed weather variables
Acciona CSP plant Palma del Rio, Spain
12

13. Our web based software allows to compare results for three different
horizons with the in situ measurements from the meteo-station.
14 June 2013Sun to Market Solutions
Status March 2013:
With a probability of 95%
predicted values lie within a
range of ±150 W/m2 (DNI)
13
Nowcasting system by

14. For further information please contact:
14 June 2013Sun to Market Solutions
Madrid—Head Office
Science & Technology Park
Avda. Gregorio Peces-Barba, 1
28918 Leganés-Madrid
phone: +34.914.966.189
fax: +34.911.413.368
Bangalore
New Bridge Corporate Center
777D, 100 Feet Road, Indiranagar
Bangalore - 560038
phone: +91.96.6352.3948
fax: +91 80.3072.3678
Beijing
Beijing Pacific Century Place
14th Floor, IBM Tower, Pacific Century
Place
2A Workers Stadium Road North
Chaoyang District
Beijing 100027
phone: +86.10.65876464
fax: +86.10.65391060
Sunnyvale
375 N Fernwood Circle
Sunnyvale, CA 95085
phone: +1 650 461 9048
fax: +1 484 313 9504
Pisa
Via Giuseppe Montanelli, 100
56121 - Pisa (Italy)
phone: +39 050 28529
fax: +39 050 28529
Santiago de Chile
Alcántara 200, Piso 6, Las Condes,
Santiago C.P. 7550159
phone: + 56228977651
Johannesburg
West Tower, 2nd Floor, Nelson
Mandela Square, Maude St., Sandton,
Johannesburg, 2146
phone: + 27 11 083 9587
14