Planning

1. 1 of 24 Planning Define OBS Construct PBS & WBS Obtain Partner Estimates Define Team Define Tasks & Estimate Work Obtain Supplier Quotes Define Schedule Assess Estimation Uncertainty De-Risking Tasks Contingency Zero Risk Cost Estimate Total Project Cost Estimation Risk Pot Construct RAM and/or RACI Safety Costing Stakeholder Definition

2. 2 of 24 What is Planning? ‘Planning is bringing the future into the present so that you can do something about it now’ ‘Failing to plan is planning to fail’ Alan Lakein, Time Management Expert How to Get Control of Your Time and Your Life, 1973 Identifying the methods, resources and activities to accomplish a project’s objectives APM Preparing a sequence of action steps to achieve some specific goal Wikipedia Planning creates a map to guide the journey to our destination - art rather than science - based on experience, domain knowledge and technical skill - requires innovative thinking - a team activity

3. 3 of 24 Why Plan? Don’t plan on success – be realistic Planning identifies and documents the optimum approach to delivery 20% into a product development project 80% of the cost of ownership is set Change requires development iteration – so ideally, get it right first time Planning defines the right activities, in the right order to avoid nugatory work Well planned projects are more likely to succeed and enable easier communication The schedule, budget and risk pot form a baseline to manage performance against 0% 100% Concept Development NPI Operation Cost Time Opportunity for Improvement Committed Costs Actual Costs

4. 4 of 24 Best Practice Association for Project Management Planning, Scheduling, Monitoring & Control [2015]  Introduction to Project Planning [2008]  The Scheduling Maturity Model [2012]  Project Management Institute Practice Standard for Work Breakdown Structures, Second Edition [2006]  Practice Standard for Scheduling, Second Edition [2011] 

5. 5 of 24 Planning Process Optional elements in yellow Decide based on project value, risk & complexity Manage Team & Customer Review: Solution, Cost, Schedule, Risk, Price & Offer (Value & USPs) Requirements Define Delivery Strategy HSE Risk Assessment Define Tools & Process Write PM & Quality Plan Construct RAM and/or RACI Define OBS Construct PBS & WBS Obtain Partner Estimates Stakeholder Definition Define Team Define Tasks & Estimate Work Obtain Supplier Quotes Propose Solution(s) Risk Management Set Terms & Cash Flow Commercial Check & Offer Estimation Uncertainty Write SoW (Proposal) Define SoW Content Hazard Identification Safety Costing De-Risking Tasks Contingency Risk Register Zero Risk Cost Estimate Total Project Cost Estimation Risk Pot Schedule & Risk Graphs SoW (Proposal) Exec Summary Requirement Solution Assumptions Dependencies Compliance Matrix Process & Tools Team Communications Change ManagementRAM, RACI Team Stakeholder Plan & Map Plans: PM & Quality Configuration Management Communications Define Schedule

6. 6 of 24 Keep People Safe HSE: Health, Safety and Environment Do a Risk Assessment to expose potential hazards EN ISO 14121-1 is a useful guide in defining potential hazards Consider the whole lifecycle: hazards may differ from one phase to the next Plan actions to deal with the hazards identified and reduce to an acceptable level the probability of harm to the team and other stakeholders There may be tasks and costs arising from the risk assessment: include these in planning

7. 7 of 24 Break It Down Break the project down to help plan the work, assign responsibility, estimate and cost work PBS: Product Breakdown Structure Hierarchical breakdown of the project output starting from the primary deliverable For ‘product’ think ‘deliverable’ WBS: Work Breakdown Structure Hierarchical breakdown into a series of work packages: groups of tasks that can be estimated and assigned to a department, team or person 1 Event 1.2 Speakers1.1 Venue 1.2.2 Invite1.2.1 Select Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 1 Car 1.2 Engine1.1 Body 1.2.2 Clutch1.2.1 Gearbox Number of levels to suit size of project and degree of control required WBS is often lower levels of PBS with addition of tasks Level 1: Product Level 2: Sub-Assembly Level 3: Work Packages 1 Remote 1.2 Electronics1.1 Case 1.2.1 Radio Key Detect Function Select User Interface 1.2.2 Software Tasks (not part of WBS) Work Packages at Lowest WBS Level

8. 8 of 24 WBS: Product or Function Draw the WBS based on the products or deliverables to ensure none are forgotten Different products mean every WBS will be unique Draw the WBS based on function and it is possible to have a template covering all functions for the type of project undertaken, e.g. in an electronics product development business Level 1: Product Level 2: Function Level 3: Work Packages Product ElectronicsMechanics Bluetooth Key Detect Function Select User Interface Software Schematic Layout Level 4: Tasks Software Manufacture Integration Test Management

9. 9 of 24 Allocate & Communicate Responsibility OBS: Organisational Breakdown Structure Hierarchical breakdown of the project management structure and people Used to convey the project communication routes and reporting lines Useful for large complex projects in matrix based organisations Project Manager ProcurementEngineering Hardware Software Production Service Logistics RAM: Responsibility Assignment Matrix Combination of OBS and WBS RF Engineer 1 UI Engineer SMD Assembly BB Engineer RF Engineer 2 PM Product WBS2 WBS3 WBS1 WBS4 WP2 OBS3OBS2OBS1 WP1 WP3

10. 10 of 24 Detail Roles RACI: Responsible, Accountable, Consulted, Informed Hierarchical breakdown of the project management structure and people Used to convey the project communication routes and reporting lines Useful for large complex projects in matrix based organisations WP: Work Package PM Sponsor QA MD HR EPG CMMI Expert Project Planning R A I I I C C QA Gap Analysis C R C A R I CMMI Gap Analysis C A C I I R Site Communications R R C A I C C Proposal Analysis R C C I I R A C Improvement Projects A R C C CMMI Level 2 Achievement A R C I I I I R CMMI Level 3 Achievement A R C I I R Site Process Library Update R A R I C Responsible Do the WP work Can be multiple per WP Accountable Ultimate authority for the WP Only one per WP Consulted Their opinions are sought Two-way communication Informed Kept informed of progress One-way communication

11. 11 of 24 Estimate and Manage Uncertainty Risk Management: Separate presentation: Risk Management Use to manage uncertainty, threats (negative impact) and opportunities (positive impact) Manage estimation uncertainty separately Estimating: Separate presentation: Estimating Decide type and estimate duration of effort and materials required to deliver the project Estimation Uncertainty All similar projects and past performance indicates suitable value? Add a percentage All projects different or no past delivery history? Use Range Estimating, 3 (or 4) point – described in separate presentation: Estimating PERT: Program Evaluation & Review Technique developed by US Navy in 1950s Uses 3 estimates per task: Optimistic, Most Likely & Pessimistic Calculates task duration as (O+(4xML)+P)/6 (not same formula as used in 3 point estimating) Schedule Contingency: Adding a time contingency to the project end date Useful where estimation uncertainty risk pot is used to fund keeping to most likely dates (i.e. with extra/better resource) rather than to fund additional time after most likely date

12. 12 of 24 Plan Payment and Manage Stakeholders Commercial Considerations Cash flow: compare planned spend and planned invoicing, accounting for payment terms A neutral cash flow is fairest but can be hard to achieve; negotiate to get the fairest deal Do a commercial check and maybe an anti-corruption check, e.g. Transparency International Team Definition A Team Structure picture helps to understand roles and provides a handy contact sheet Stakeholder Management Know the stakeholders Decide where to invest time Separate presentation: Stakeholder Management

13. 13 of 24 Plan then Schedule Planning is an activity that precedes scheduling Planning defines the strategy, methods, tools, risks More art than science Scheduling records the activities in a time ordered presentation: Network Diagrams or Bar Charts (Gantt) being the most used More science than art Scheduling uses the Work Breakdown Structure to organise the tasks that must be undertaken to deliver the project goals All but extremely simple projects require use of a specialist scheduling tool There are many tools available: Wikipedia PM Tool List Tool choice depends on a lot of factors, including integration with other tools

14. 14 of 24 Scheduling Scheduling implements the plan  Incorporating all tasks  Including Risk Management tasks: threat mitigation and opportunity enhancement  Managing interdependencies  Developing a logical sequence of work  Accounting for working time  Optimising resource use:  Smoothing: Reduce peak resource demand without affecting Project Duration  Levelling: Solve limited resource issues – perhaps affecting Project Duration  Determining the Critical Path and Float  Calculating Work Package and overall Project Duration and cost  Determining the feasibility of project delivery within desired completion dates and cost Schedules should have a level of detail appropriate to the target audience

15. 15 of 24 Scheduling: Network Diagrams Network Diagrams Clearly show the logic between tasks and are often where new project managers start Early Start Duration Early Finish Late Start Float Late Finish Task NameNetwork Node ES D=0 EF ES D=2 EF ES D=5 EF ES D=0 EF LS F LF LS F LF LS F LF LS F LF ES D=3 EF ES D=10 EF LS F LF LS F LF E Drink Juice F Finish BreakfastA Start Breakfast B Prepare Cereal D Prepare Juice C Eat Cereal Earliest the task can finish Earliest the task can start Latest the task can start Latest the task can finish Tasks with Float > 0 can be delayed with no change in Project Duration Start by mapping the tasks, durations and dependencies Finish-to-Start dependency Milestone (zero duration task) Task

16. 16 of 24 Scheduling: Network Example 1. Forward Pass Calculate ES & EF Start at first task where ES is always 0 ES = maximum EF of all predecessor tasks EF = ES + Duration Conclusion: Project Duration = last task EF = 13 minutes 2. Backward Pass Calculate LS & LF Start at last task where LF is the EF LF = minimum LS of all successor tasks LS = LF − Duration If start task LS is not 0, check maths! 3. Calculate Float & Critical Path Float = LF - EF or LS – ES Free Float = Task EF – Successor Task ES Start and Finish tasks have zero float Delay float tasks without changing Project Duration Delay free float tasks without affecting other tasks Critical Path is longest path through network, lowest float (usually 0) – Can be more than one – Can change Conclusion: Critical Path = A D E F = Shortest Project Duration ES=0 D=0 EF=0 ES=0 D=2 EF=2 ES=2 D=5 EF=7 ES=13 D=0 EF=13 LS F LF LS F LF LS F LF LS F LF ES=0 D=3 EF=3 ES=3 D=10 EF=13 LS F LF LS F LF A Start Breakfast B Prepare Cereal F Finish BreakfastC Eat Cereal D Prepare Juice E Drink Juice ES=0 D=0 EF=0 ES=0 D=2 EF=2 ES=2 D=5 EF=7 ES=13 D=0 EF=13 LS=0 F LF=0 LS=6 F LF=8 LS=8 F LF=13 LS=13 F LF=13 ES=0 D=3 EF=3 ES=3 D=10 EF=13 LS=0 F LF=3 LS=3 F LF=13 A Start Breakfast B Prepare Cereal D Prepare Juice C Eat Cereal F Finish Breakfast E Drink Juice ES=0 D=0 EF=0 ES=0 D=2 EF=2 ES=2 D=5 EF=7 ES=13 D=0 EF=13 LS=0 F=0 LF=0 LS=6 F=6 LF=8 LS=8 F=6 LF=13 LS=13 F=0 LF=13 ES=0 D=3 EF=3 ES=3 D=10 EF=13 LS=0 F=0 LF=3 LS=3 F=0 LF=13 F Finish Breakfast D Prepare Juice A Start Breakfast B Prepare Cereal E Drink Juice C Eat Cereal

17. 17 of 24 Scheduling: Bar Charts Bar or Gantt Charts Developed in 1910 by Henry Gantt, this is the most used format in scheduling software Show tasks on a common timescale unlike Network Diagrams Careful structure & style needed if logic is to be clear Can be rolled-up, hiding and revealing detail as necessary Mark key outputs as Milestones – often with major milestones grouped at the top Typically Finish-to-Start, dependencies can be Start-to-Start, Start-to-Finish or Finish-to-Finish Minutes 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 A Start Breakfast F Finish Breakfast B Prepare Cereal C Eat Cereal D Prepare Juice E Drink Juice Float Finish-to-start dependency Milestone (Zero Duration) Critical Path

18. 18 of 24 Schedule Design Task ID: Unique task identification, often following WBS element or finance system number Task Descriptions: Use meaningful, specific text to describe a task Milestones: Zero duration tasks – group significant milestones at the top Lag: a time period between tasks where no work is done Lead: a negative Lag, which makes no sense as time only runs forward, so don’t use! Lags and Leads are both hidden in a schedule Dummy: No work tasks used to provide visibility, e.g. Tooling Leadtime Use a Dummy Task rather than a Lag Hammocks: Task which expands and contracts depending on the tasks that it is linked to Calendars: Include common non-working time in schedule calendars, e.g. public holidays Include typical holiday periods or individual calendars per resource where useful Plan on standard working hours – overtime and weekends should be for crises only

19. 19 of 24 Other Flavours are Available Rolling Wave Planning is planning in phases, sections or waves as the project proceeds High level overall milestones are set and the most immediate section planned in detail Later sections of work are planned only in outline As the current section nears completion and later details become clearer, the next section of work is planned in detail, and so on What If planning is used to look at outcomes, assuming the What-if scenario succeeds Probabilistic planning is used where a number of branches are possible, each with a probability of occurrence which can be modelled using monte carlo simulation BIM: Building Information Modelling is the generation and management of digital representations of the physical and functional characteristics of an asset – starting from a 2D or 3D model and adding time and cost information

20. 20 of 24 Critical Chain CCPM: Critical Chain Project Management is derived from the Theory of Constraints Developed in 1997 by Eliyahu Goldratt as an alternative to Critical Path analysis Credited with achieving projects 10% to 50% faster and/or cheaper than older methods CCPM asserts that estimation contingency is generally wasted due to poor multitasking, student syndrome, Parkinson's Law and poorly synchronized integration CCPM planning aggregates the task contingency time into buffers Buffer management instead of EVM is used to assess the performance of a project Critical Chain Planning Process 1. Create WBS 2. Work backwards from the end date moving all tasks to start as late as possible 3. Adjust task to two durations: 50% and 95% likely (or remove a fixed percentage) 4. Assign resources to tasks and level resources using 50% likely durations – we assume half will be early and half will be late, so the net result will be time 5. Critical Chain is the longest sequence of resource levelled tasks from project start to end 6. Accumulate the 95% durations minus the 50% durations in a buffer at the end of the project – for the Critical Chain tasks 7. Do the same for each sequence of tasks that feed into the Critical Chain 8. Give the date at the end of the Critical Chain project buffer as the project delivery date

21. 21 of 24 Agile Software Development A collection of tools, structure, culture and discipline, and planning integrated with execution A framework aimed at helping a team respond effectively to changing requirements Does not require an upfront effort to document all requirements A prioritized list of desired features, the Product Backlog is developed as more is learned Features are written as Stories and allocated points based on their level of definition Rather than assigning tasks to team members (‘push’), team members choose tasks (‘pull’) In Scrum, a Sprint is a fixed iteration of typically 1-4 weeks, fixed prior to each Sprint Backlog items are planned into each Sprint prior to starting and cannot be added during Team members choose tasks prior to starting a Sprint and all must be done before the end Tasks that would exceed the Sprint duration are split into smaller tasks In Kanban the team works continuously, typically with releases shorter than 1 week Scrumban is continuous work with short iterations for planning and longer cycles for release Unlike Scrum, tasks are chosen during Kanban or Scrumban rather than at the start Demand Planning occurs when the team run out of product backlog items Alternatively, Release Planning occurs when the code or version is released Backlog items can be added during a sprint as long as the team has capacity to do them

22. 22 of 24 Agile Methods As well as Scrum, Kanban and Scrumban, there are many other Agile Methods XP: Extreme Programming In 1999 Kent Beck published a book advocating taking existing best practices to extremes e.g. code reviews are best practice so XP advocates continuous code review (pair programming) LSD: Lean Software Development In 2003 Mary & Tom Poppendieck applied the 7 Lean principles to software development DSDM: Dynamic Systems Development Method is an Agile project delivery framework Fixes cost, quality and time and uses MoSCoW prioritisation to deliver the project Mixes Agile and plan-driven approaches without sacrificing what makes Agile work DSDM uses: Facilitated Workshops Modelling and Iterative Development Timeboxing: e.g. Scrum, Kanban, Scrumban MoSCoW Prioritisation: Must Have, Should Have, Could Have, Won’t Have - Often interpreted within the current timebox - ‘Must’ often meaning Minimum Useable Subset

23. 23 of 24 Summary Planning ensures the appropriate work is done at the optimum time to avoid nugatory work and so minimise cost Plan holistically and agree the right approach, method and tools Base the plan on the business case Actively manage Risk – throughout the lifecycle, not just at the start Planning is a team activity, not for project managers working alone Quality of early work is critical Understand the business case and the stakeholders Do enough work to understand the requirements Get the scope and the concept right – cost is largely set by start of implementation Ensure PM competence is a match for project value, risk and complexity Bid using the PM and core team that will run the project, if won

24. 24 of 24 Author Profile In my board role I led a team of 22 Project Managers and 5 Quality Engineers, and ensured Roke’s £79m project portfolio delivered better than budget profit. I set-up and ran a virtual PMO and created REP, the Roke Engineering Process, also managing the engineering tools to support it. After 4 years as an electronics engineer for Siemens, achieving Chartered Engineer, I moved into project management for 14 years, at Siemens and Roke Manor Research. Successfully delivering Roke’s most challenging whole lifecycle product developments on time and under budget led to a role as Director and board member for 6 years. In 2013 I returned to hands-on project management as Programme Director at Cambridge Consultants, founder member of the Cambridge Science Park. Creator of the APM corporate accredited PM Excellence Programme, I chaired a quarterly PM forum to share best practice and built a supportive PM community. I coached seven PMs to RPP, five to PQ, and all passed APMP. These investments in PM professionalism led to a turn-around and annual improvement in project results across a 400 project portfolio and delivered an above budget performance in five consecutive years with profits totalling £7.9m above budget. Passionate advocate of PM professionalism, Fellow of the APM and the IET and author of articles published in Project and PM Today. Professional Development Winning Project Work Planning Estimating Risk Management Earned Value Management Change Control Stakeholder Management 3 Steps to Professional Project Management: Case Study ProjectManagementTopics

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